NCAA Football 2004 (2 Viewers)

[george kaplan]

Matt Leinart has decided to come back to USC. I'm surprised, but it's certainly good news for USC.

 

[Matt Stone]

I know they were saying during the bowl game that he really liked college, but I certainly wasn't expecting him to come back. Great news for USC...bad news for everyone else

 

[James St]

Maybe he didn't want to be a 49er.

 

[george kaplan]

Yeah, but unless you can somehow finagle a trade, any player who goes #1 in the draft is going to end up on a lousy team. Waiting a year isn't going to change the fact that he's going to be on a pathetic team in the NFL.

 

[Chris]

True, but he might have a shot at say.. hmm.. Bengals? next year? Neh. Probably SF will still be in the mix for #1, no matter who they pick up this year

 

[Jason L.]

From dallasmorningnews.com

 

[Scott Merryfield]

I'm a bit surprised by Leinhart's decision -- it's pretty risky. He certainly cannot improve his draft position by returning to USC, but he could drop if he gets hurt. If that happens, it could cost him millions. I hope things work out okay for him.

However, his decision probably cements USC as the preseason #1 team next season.

 

[Jason L.]

Here's a potential problem with a playoff:

Let's say you have a 4-team playoff that ends up like this:

1 seed is 13-0
2 seed is 13-0
3 seed is 12-1
4 seed is 11-2

and the championship game comes down to your 2 and 4 seeds.

#2 [14-0] vs. #4 [12-2]

and the 4 seed wins.

What has that really proven? Your "tournament champion" still has a worse record than your number 1 and 2 seeds.

It reminds me of the 1985 Kansas Jayhawks with Danny Manning. I believe they were only 19-12 during the regular season and made it into the NCAA Tournament, where they won it all. When you look at the ENTIRE basketball season - were they the best team? No, they were just a team that got hot at the right moment.

I would never, ever want to see the NCAA football regular season become as meaningless as the NCAA basketball regular season is.

That's what I love about College Football: every single game counts. With a playoff system, USC could have said during its season finale vs. UCLA, "Who cares about this game, we'll still make the tournament anyway!", and played their backups.

 

[John Alvarez]

It still wouldn't by limiting the amount of teams in the tournament to 4 or 8. You would still have to have a great record to make it in. Just because a team has 2 losses doesn't mean they aren't better than a team with no losses.

 

[ThomasC]

So that means every single playoff game counts too, eh? What about the NFL? Should we eliminate the playoff system and just put the top two seeds in the Super Bowl? Atlanta was 11-5 in the regular season, Philadelphia was 13-3, New England was 14-2, and Pittsburgh was 15-1. Based solely on the regular season record, New England and Pittsburgh would be in the Super Bowl, but nope, they'll be playing in the AFC Championship Game. There's no debate about the records here, since New England and Pittsburgh do have the most wins. In Pittsburgh's case, they probably wouldn't have as good a record as they do if Maddox hadn't been injured in the Steelers' second game of the season. Things change in college football, too. Many teams get better as the season goes along, and have a loss in their first few games.

 

[JohnRice]

I have to agree with Jason. I'm sick of all the cries every year in major professional sports that the season is meaningless. Remember the boycotts and outrage whenever a wildcard team wins a championship? No, no, no, the only way to determine a champion is with polls and a computer program. Who would ever want the contending teams to actually play each other to determine a winner?

 

[george kaplan]

Looks like USC did pretty well on the recruiting front (so did a number of other teams obviously). I'm not sure how long this link will be good, but here's the story.

 

[Carlo_M]

Yeah, USC has basically reloaded.

Curious to me is if Mark Sanchez is ready to redshirt. I haven't heard him say he is (he's local so I see him on the news and recruiting sites), but one would think he'd have to in order to be able to show his skills. Leinart comes back, so that pissed John David Booty off (top rated QB 2 years ago that they got). He already redshirted this last year, probably assuming that Leinart would leave. Now he's a redshirt sophomore going into his third year in the program. Chances are, even if Sanchez is ultra talented, Booty was too coming out of HS and will probably have the starting job 2 years after Leinart leaves. That would mean the next 3 years are filled, so if Sanchez doesn't redshirt, and doesn't beat out Booty, he'd leave himself one year to show his ability...

As great as they did offensively (top WR as well), they didn't get a RB for the 2nd year in a row because of the logjam with White and Bush. Not saying they didn't bring in a top RB...they didn't bring one in at all! That won't hurt them now but they should really bring one in next year because I think Bush has one more year left before going pay-for-play.

One thing Carroll can do though is recruit defense, defense, defense. He's brought in young top DLs and LBs. The secondary might still be a relative weak spot, but if he keeps their front seven playing like monsters it just won't matter (ask OU). He loses Cody, Patterson on the DL and Tatupu and Grootegoed in the LB corps, so that is huge: 4 of your front 7 to the NFL.

What's impressive is that he's brought in the top class for 3 years now. Local sportscasters are trying to soften the blow in the future by saying to expect them to "hit the wall" in the next few years like Miami did in the 90's when they were dominating.

Carroll rebuilt them so fast, and then recruited so well, that playing time will start being a consideration. There was a bit of space for all of these top recruits as Hackett's last couple of classes weren't spectacular and so Carroll's first few classes were able to play. But as the logjam as QB is starting to show, USC is loaded like that at most positions, and the top talent in HS usually don't want to wait 2-3 years to start.

Time will tell.

 

[Shane Martin]

Carlo,
OU has a similar problem at QB with Tommy Grady a top prospect from California, and Rhett Bhomar(the #1 QB in Texas last year and another Top prospect). Add to that they have a proven backup to White(who is leaving) and figured to start this next year and it will get interesting. They didn't recruit a top QB either.

It looks like OU loaded up on Defense and O Line which is a smart move.
Smaller schools like Boise State for instance benefit here.

 

[Carlo_M]

You know how good USC is? That glowing review I just wrote...is coming from a UCLA alum and fan :frowning:

At least this year, we got Ben Olson away from BYU. For those who don't know, he was widely thought of as not just the best QB out of HS 4 years ago, but some had him as the best HS player in the country. Went to BYU for one year (redshirted) while Norm Chow was there, then went to a 2 year Mormon mission. When he came back, Norm was gone (obviously) and since he'd sat out his RS year, he could re-open his recruiting without penalty and play immediately, just with no redshirt year remaining. I guess our coach had stayed in email or snail mail contact with him on his mission (no other contact was allowed where he was, and being a local product chose UCLA. Easily our biggest get in years since our QB is the weakest position we have by far.

Los Angeles college sports is starting to return to form though: USC back on top in FB, UCLA on its way up in BB. Howland brought in 4 great recruits last year, 3 of whom start, and has a solid 5 recruits coming in next year, with a top-25 verbal commit already in 2006 and 2007! We were 11-17 last year (when Howland was rebuilding from Lavin's ashes) and are already 11-6 this year, with a legit chance to make the tourney if we can close the season well.

 

[Chris]

Holy Schnikees!

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1987726

Tennessee Titans hire Norm Chow away from USC to become OC.

Just thought I'd revive this thread to add that note today..

 

[george kaplan]

Very depressing news. :frowning:

I don't think it changes the fact the USC is a favorite to repeat next year, but it certainly is tough to swallow. :frowning:

Personally I think Norm Chow is making a big mistake. I don't see how this will be nearly as satisfying an experience for him, and frankly, I'd expect to see him back in the college ranks at some point (though probably not USC :frowning

 

[John Alvarez]

USC picked up quite a few highly touted freshmen so I think they will be okay for a couple of years.
I just have to wait and see what Urban does with my Gators. I can't wait for the Orange and Blue game.

 

[Chris]

Yeah, I think in college there is a sort of "you can never come home again" feel. We'll see how it all plays out. But it does at least throw something interesting USC way.

 

[Carlo_M]

I think USC is far from a "lock" now that 4 assistant coaches are gone from the staff:

Norm Chow: OC - you know what he means to the offense.

Ed Orgeron: Assitant HC, Defensive Coach, recruiting coordinator. Many say "yes credit Carroll for the schemes, but this was the fiery guy who not only implemented it, but gave the D its attitude". Not to mention was their head recruiter

Davis: OL coach. Games are won and lost in the trenches. This is one trench war that will cost them. Even Pete, trying to diffuse the Chow situation, was quoted in the L.A. Times as saying "Of more importance [than replacing Chow] was finding a replacement for Davis."

Carl Smith: QB Coach

----

Yes, USC has reloaded. But all the talent in the world hasn't guaranteed a dynasty for Miami (whose classes in the late 90s and early 2000s are chock-full of NFL talent which has gotten them, what, 1 NC?) or Texas: the Big School that Couldn't. Heck, even Oklahoma had talks of a dynasty early in 2000 but coaching defections (Stoops I think is on his 3rd OC and his DC - Mike Stoops - is now coaching Arizona).

Chow did more with less at BYU than just about any other assistant coach I can think of. BYU hasn't been the same since he left. Carson Palmer was an AVERAGE QB (I know, I watched him a lot) before Norm got a hold of him. Leinart was unheralded coming out of HS (solid recruit, but not expected to make any big waves in NCAA).

It's Norm's offensive SYSTEM that makes stars out of kids. Now they're going to replace him with Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian? I don't think so. Sure, USC will win 10 games at least based on talent and schedule alone. Heck they may even win the NC again [they certainly are 1 of 3 teams I think who are in the mix, realistically]. But w/ Chow I would have said "it's a lock". Now all bets are off.

Next year Leinart leaves, my money is on that at least one of the Bush/White tandem leaves, if not both. And even though they have talented underclassmen, never underestimate the impact that great coaches and assistant coaches have on player development. And make no mistake about it, USC has lost at least 3 talented ACs (not sure about Smith). It's hard for a program to lose 1 or 2 in a year, but 3 verified talented ACs with a possible 4th is too much to overcome, especially when the replacements don't have anywhere near the resume of the departed (Kiffin and Sarkisian look like they could still be playing!).

The talent and remnants of his system are in place for a successful 2005 campaign. It's the years beyond that which are thrown into doubt. Carroll + Chow would have been a scary tandem for as long as they stayed together.