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More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Mark Talmadge, May 15, 2008.

  1. Mark Talmadge

    Mark Talmadge Well-Known Member

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  2. RickER

    RickER Well-Known Member

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    Course none of it would have anything to do with the fact that it is summer, and people dont buy many "indoor" toys this time of year. Also, the fact that once again, because its summer, and that means its time for gas prices to surge out of control. That wouldnt have anything to do with it either. [​IMG]

    All old news, talked about in a few other threads. Doesnt mean Blu is dead. But i see enough titles coming out later this summer to keep me poor! [​IMG]
     
  3. TravisR

    TravisR Well-Known Member

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    Same here. Everyone would love the BIG titles to come out but I'm reasonably happy and reasonably poor with new releases on Blu Ray and what I'd consider some fairly decent second tier catalog titles.

    Quite frankly, I still don't care if Blu Ray catches on with the public like DVD did.
     
  4. MatthewA

    MatthewA Well-Known Member

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    Would it be better for the overall quality of the discs if it remained a large niche? No MAR jobs, no excessive DVNR, no sub-EPK extras. Unfortunately, it would prevent a lot of worthy titles from getting released.
     
  5. Danny_N

    Danny_N Well-Known Member

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    Depends on the people who make up that large niche. If I look at all the complaints about a little grain in a movie, I'd say that the current niche is not averse to excessive DVNR.

    I doubt BD will ever overtake DVD but I'd like to see it grow to the point that releasing classic movies will be profitable for studios and that smaller companies like Criterion and Blue Underground can release their catalogue and make a profit. Otherwise we might be stuck with a format on which only last year's hit from Hollywood that looks like a video game gets a release and that does not interest me at all.
     
  6. troy evans

    troy evans Well-Known Member

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    So, when you combine the Blu-ray player and PS3 you get about 10% of 2500 surveyed? That's about right at this stage and not too bad really. 250 out of 2500 want or own a player and if we multiply that number it gets even better. The survey, the way I read it, is in Blu's favor. I don't even think dvd had this penitration when it was launched and I heard all the same surveys then as I do now. Blu-ray is here to stay and only going to grow stronger as everything makes it's move to Hi-Def.
     
  7. troy evans

    troy evans Well-Known Member

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  8. Danny_N

    Danny_N Well-Known Member

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    I know that, but will they sell enough copies of their releases to make it profitable for them? I don't want this to be a one time appearance of these companies on BD.
     
  9. Ronald Epstein

    Ronald Epstein Administrator
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    Bottom line....

    These BR players and software need to come down in price if you want
    to entice the common consumer into purchase.

    Now that the format war is over there seems to be no incentive
    for many of the major companies to drop prices.
     
  10. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    There is an incentive, but the economic state including the devalue of the dollar has played a part in this pricing issue. The real test will come this Fall and holiday season.
     
  11. PaulDA

    PaulDA Well-Known Member

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    Don't underestimate the effect of the devalued dollar (essentially a form of inflation) on pricing. A dropping dollar and soaring oil prices do not make for a good combination for items with large quantities of plastic in them. It is not the only reason, of course, but it is a factor.
     
  12. Travis Brashear

    Travis Brashear Well-Known Member

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    Did anyone else get hung up on this line: "Of course, just 35% of those polled owned an HDTV"? Well, who gives a rip about the other 65%?! How is Blu-ray gonna take off with non-HD consumers? Hey, here's another factoid for ya--out of 2,500 people surveyed, only 10% were interested in funding advanced space research; of course, 2,250 of the people surveyed were members of the ancient Umbutu tribe of darkest East Africa, so that's worth considering. This means that only 875 members of this polling pool are even viable candidates right now (the others can be shunted off to a "More Research Asserts that HDTV Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge" article). So now we're talking about 9% of 875, with that number likely to jump up by at least 4%-5% in short order since it's clear than many HD-DVD owners are actively prepared to go Blu any moment now. I think those are swell numbers at this stage of the game. I still think 2009 (the year entire) will be the true measuring stick of what the future will hold re: the level of success for Blu-ray. For now, I'm with many of the rest of you--hell, I'm spending over $200 on Blu-ray titles just next Tuesday alone.
     
  13. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    It is becoming a large factor with HT equipment that is mostly imported and the effects of the dropping dollar and soaring oil prices is affecting everything from groceries to vehicle purchases.
     
  14. Marc Colella

    Marc Colella Well-Known Member

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    While the economy does play a factor in sales of many things, I don't think we can use this as a major factor in the slow adoption of Blu-Ray.

    Many entertainment products are still selling well - even if they've dropped off a bit. The Wii is still selling great, GTA IV sold in monsterous numbers, HDTVs are selling very well also, etc.

    At first many were saying the format war was killing the adoption rate because there were many fence-sitters. I always disagreed with that. Now that the war is over and sales are barely moving upwards, we use the economy as the excuse. What we're actually seeing is that Blu-Ray is and will continue to be a niche product. The majority of people are happy with DVD. Even price drops will only help so much.
     
  15. Jesse Blacklow

    Jesse Blacklow Well-Known Member

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    As mentioned above, this is generally one of the slowest times of the year for electronics and media sales, and this has been borne out in console sales, player sales, and disc sales for both DVD and Blu-ray.

    Saying that something is failing without providing context--especially when that context explicitly says that everything else is experiencing a bit of a slowdown--strikes me as a little bit disingenuous.
     
  16. Patrick_S

    Patrick_S Premium
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    That's wrong according to the NPD numbers I've seen. The PS3 has managed to outsell the 360 just twice and has lost the last two months.
     
  17. Maxpower1987

    Maxpower1987 Active Member

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    Indeed, HT is going to suffer more than other areas in the US as so many companies are based in Japan (Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic etc...) and the Yen's rise against the USD is causing a lot of these companies to raise retail pricing. I know for a fact that the Panasonic BD50 was going to launch at a much more reasonable price in the US, but the need to keep investors in Japan happy meant that a higher price was slapped on at the last minute.

    I think it will be a miracle if Sony's two players the S350 and S550 launch at their given prices, no doubt that Sony will have factored in the weakening of the USD, but I doubt they figured it would be by this much.
     
  18. Maxpower1987

    Maxpower1987 Active Member

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    If you take each month as a seperate entity, then sure they are both even, but put them all together, and it paints a (slightly) different picture, the PS3 is ahead buy around 50,000 units. It's not really a very big deal, 50,000 is pretty poor compared to how badly they are both being beat by the Wii.
     
  19. Goko

    Goko Active Member

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    You should care. Mass adoption equals lower prices and more titles. It's as simple as that.
     
  20. Patrick_S

    Patrick_S Premium
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    I was just responding to correct an incorrect statement.

    I guess the only fair comparison would be to look at total units sold while both were on the market but I'm not going to go back and look at all of those numbers. Considering the last holiday season numbers I would guess that the 360 has outsold PS3 in head to head competition but I could be wrong.

    I think it is probably safe to say that the PS3 people are a little troubled to see the PS3 once again trending behind the 360. Considering all things they probably expected the PS3 to out sell the 360 each and every month.

    As for the original topic about Blu-Ray sales, hardware sales will ebb and follow during the year but I figure there should be a nice increase during the holiday season just as you would expect.
     

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