Andrew Testa
Second Unit
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2002
- Messages
- 263
As a NASA contractor I've been following the X-Prize candidate's progress. Rutan's entry is probably the best shot. However, it's a one trick pony, designed specifically to meet the X-Prize criteria. There is a HUGE technology gap between this craft and anything that could reach orbit and survive reentry.
I believe that Rutan will use the momentum from winning the X-Prize to gather significant venture capital and work to a more advanced vehicle. The goal would probably be to ferry tourists for a short suborbital hop. I don't see him trying to compete in the launch services market. It's oversaturated as it is and there's little money to be made given the exorbitant insurance required and the small payloads he could deliver. Orbital Science's Pegasus already covers the delivery method Rutan is exploring (small rocket dropped from a carrier plane).
And just to stir the pot on the Space Elevator: physically impossible. Reason being that there is no place on Earth to anchor it that isn't moving relative to the Elevator's CG at the 'Geostationary' orbit. Being a nonuniform spheroid and subject to tidal forces, the Earth wobbles, and significantly so. Gyroscopic Precession and nutation keep it wobbling on its own, and tidal forces continually move the land as well as the oceans. Also, due to the gravitational influence of the moon and sun, the orbit of the elevator would constantly drift. The Elevator would wiggle like spaghetti if there was any material that could withstand the incredible tension loads.
Cool idea for a book though.
Andy
I believe that Rutan will use the momentum from winning the X-Prize to gather significant venture capital and work to a more advanced vehicle. The goal would probably be to ferry tourists for a short suborbital hop. I don't see him trying to compete in the launch services market. It's oversaturated as it is and there's little money to be made given the exorbitant insurance required and the small payloads he could deliver. Orbital Science's Pegasus already covers the delivery method Rutan is exploring (small rocket dropped from a carrier plane).
And just to stir the pot on the Space Elevator: physically impossible. Reason being that there is no place on Earth to anchor it that isn't moving relative to the Elevator's CG at the 'Geostationary' orbit. Being a nonuniform spheroid and subject to tidal forces, the Earth wobbles, and significantly so. Gyroscopic Precession and nutation keep it wobbling on its own, and tidal forces continually move the land as well as the oceans. Also, due to the gravitational influence of the moon and sun, the orbit of the elevator would constantly drift. The Elevator would wiggle like spaghetti if there was any material that could withstand the incredible tension loads.
Cool idea for a book though.
Andy