iPod to kill TV-on-DVD? (1 Viewer)

[Gord Lacey]

An article by Home Media Retailing (http://www.homemediaretailing.com/ne...rticle_id=8546) about the possibility of slower TV-on-DVD sales prompted me to post this on the TVShowsOnDVD.com Blog (http://tv-shows-on-dvd.blogspot.com/) the other day, but I thought I'd post it here as well. Home Media Retailing was reporting on research by Kagan Research that said downloads will replace, and hurt, the TV-on-DVD market.





Do you think that the downloading of TV shows to iPods will affect the sales of TV-DVDs?

I say no, it won't affect it, and here's why...

The shows sold on the Apple iTunes store are about a quarter the size of DVD resolution. They're also not in widescreen, and they don't have Dolby Digital 5.1 surround sound. We're on the verge of Blu-ray and HD-DVD, yet the threat to TV-on-DVD is coming from these poor quality files? That doesn't make sense to me.

The price of the episodes doesn't offer much savings when compared to the DVD box set. Let's use Lost as an example. Apple is currently selling the complete first season for $34.99, while Amazon is selling the complete box set for $38.98. A few dollars more and you get tons of extras, widescreen transfer, and Dolby Digital 5.1. That's fine for Lost, but it's not good when you compare the price of Monk. The first season, just 13 episodes, sells for $25.87 on iTunes, or $44.99 on Amazon. Hmm...that's not very good. Apple is pricing their shows based on QUANTITY, while many studios price their products based on what they think they can get. The pricing strategies that some studios take with their products don't look good when compared to the iTunes model, so hopefully, though not likely, they'll consider adopting a pricing structure that reflects the content.

We also have to take into account that there are a LOT more DVD players out there than video iPods. Yes, Apple sold over 14,000,000 iPods in the previous quarter, but not all of those played video. Apple has said that they have sold over 8,000,000 VIDEOS on the iTunes store, not episodes. Disney has sold over 1,000,000 copies of Lost (I've heard over 1.2 million, but 1 million is easier to deal with). 1 million copies of Lost on DVD would translate into 25,000,000 episodes...with a single release.

Dave (Lambert) and I were talking about this through email, and he brought up a good point; lose your Hard Drive and you lose your episodes. I guess if you stored them on your HD and iPod then it would be unlikely both would go at the same time, but there are people out there that are buying these without putting them on iPods.

Another blow to iTunes - you can only download shows if you live in the US. Yes, we have to deal with region codes for our DVDs, but the market for TV-on-DVD exists world-wide; the market for TV-on-iPod doesn't exist outside of the US.

When you buy episodes for your iPod you're also missing out on the brag factor. Isn't it cool when your friends come over and see your wall of DVDs? They stand there and browse the spines, marvelling at your collection. You just don't get that with an iPod.

I'm not knocking the iTunes music store, I just don't think it offers much competition to TV-on-DVD. I think it's a great service when you miss an episode, but it won't replace a widescreen, Dolby Digital 5.1 version of a show on DVD, at least not for me.

Any comments?

Gord

 

[Steve Phillips]

I have zero interest in watching shows on tiny handheld devices. I might watch an episode or two of a series on the new AOL service, but that wouldn't curb the desire to buy a series I really liked. In fact, I might sample something that would trigger a purchase.

 

[Vader]

From my POV, the iPod is a joke. The songs downloaded from iTunes are of such low quality that they only sound halfway decent (using the term loosely) when played on an MP3 player. When they are played on a full-blown stereo system, that is another story. This is simply abother example of the fact that so many people have such incredibly low standards when it comes to quality. TV-on-iPod will appeal to these people, while those of us who want a much higher PQ will stick to DVD (and soon Blu Ray, I hope...). Even many of those that are satisfied with their iPod video (it's screen is only, what, 5 inches?) will concede the horrid quality when comparing to DVD (or even VHS for that matter). Place the same video on a big screen, HT system and my point becomes clear (pun intended)...

 

[PaulP]

 

[Jason Seaver]

This bit can be taken two ways:


I know you're probably saying that studios should price their DVDs based solely (or at least primarily) on the number of hours included in the box, but it can also read as Apple should charge more for "content" that's worth more.

 

[Citizen87645]

I think it will affect TV on DVD as much as it affected CD sales, which is to say not as much as one would think.

 

[ElijahS]

Personally, I've purchased a few episodes from iTunes, but they were in instances where two shows I wanted to see the particular episodes of were on at the same time. Given what it's supposed to be played on, the video quality is good.

 

[Jay_B!]

IMO, there's a difference between downloading something to watch, and something to listen to.

With music, a 3 inch device is perfectly fine as long as you get the sound you want, but if I'm gonna watch a DVD, either TV or movie, I want at least a reasonably decent screen

If anything, a better threat (and it never really hurt) to TV-DVD's was the episode downloads that people ripped off television and put it online, ones you can burn to DVD-R. One of my friends used to not get the UPN (it was finally made available in his area this past fall), so he discovered Veronica Mars through there, and also was able to enjoy the last two seasons of Buffy through that too, and surprise... HE BOUGHT THE DVD'S FOR BOTH WHEN THEY CAME OUT!!!

 

[FrancisP]

CD sales were on the decline even before ipods were brought out. That doesn't have any relevancy since the the dynamics are different. ipods are great as portable devices but I also don't see watching it on a 2 inch screen. If I were away from home then it would be great. Also it's not very practical for more than 1 viewer. I suspect most of the people who buy ipods and download shows on them are people who don't spend a lot of time at home. So they are likely not to be buying tv shows on dvd anyway.

 

[Jeff Willis]

I agree with most here, in particular, Jay's post. I think that there are (potentially) more threats out there to the TV/DVD market than iPOD. I'm watching the HD DVD issue more closely than the iPOD issue.

 

[Scott Kimball]

The markets are different but parallel.

The idea that iPod video (which looks fine for the portable video it was designed for) would displace DVD sales is akin to saying that a McDonalds moving in next to an Outback will affect Outback's sales.

iPod video is the fast food version of DVD... shows-on-the-go.

-Scott

 

[Citizen87645]

The same can be said about the audio aspect, but the device can be hooked up to a sound system for group listening. In the same way the video iPods can be connected to a television for group viewing. I was actually surprised at the quality on a 27" screen, though it'd probably look like crap on my 42" RPTV.

The video feature on iPods is also relatively new. A friend who got one for Christmas downloaded a bunch of Office episodes but I don't see him continuing this way.

 

[Paul McElligott]

I can say for a fact that McD's next to an Outback doesn't hurt the Outback at all.

Seriously, downloaded TV shows won't hurt DVD sales until you can download full resolution DVD-quality shows directly to a device that plays through your TV set. Even then, TV on DVD will still probably be a better deal.

 

[Mary_P]

I see it as a supplement to, not replacement of, TV on DVD.

If I were in a situation where I could watch something on my daily commute, iPod video might be a good way to go, easier to deal with than even a small (5" screen) portable DVD player. And the option to download episodes that aired just a day or two ago, rather than have to wait half a year or more for the DVD release, is appealing -- especially if the show involved has a story arc and missing an episode will put you out of the loop.

But I can't see using it in situations where portability or immediate access aren't factors. The screen's too small (2.5", according to Apple's website), plus as previously mentioned, there's the very real possibility of losing what you've purchased if your drive crashes. And I tend to share DVDs with friends who buy and share other series (hmmm, how many people have borrowed my "Firefly" set this year???); that would be hard if not impossible to do with iPod video.

For anything I want to watch again a few years after my initial purchase, or share with friends, I'll stick with DVD....

 

[Mark Talmadge]

I think this going to generate more fear from DVD fans than anything else. The whole idea of being able to watch my favourite shows on my 20" 5.1 Surround Sound system. Why would I want to download a complete season on a 2.5" Ipod screen?

For one thing there's no way I would wish to do so and another thing ... not everybody has $300 to dump on a piece of inferior crap like the Ipod photo. I think whoever did that article is reading too much into this and I have to say that Ipod Video is not even close to threatening the TV on DVD market.

Besides, it's the studios fault if it does because they aren't quick enough to release these season sets to the market for the fans to buy.

All in the Family sees one set per year, Universal is slow in releasing their sets, Sony and Paramount are virtually unmoving for most of its sets and they are slow to respond to customer complaints as well.

 

[Curtis F]

I think that downloading shows from Itunes is great, but I would not ever think of it as a replacement for DVDs. It's a great safety net if you miss an episode and want to catch up before the next episode. The only other reason I'd download a show is to sample it to see if I would want to go out and get the DVDs.

 

[Deb Walsh]

I don't see iTunes having much impact on DVD sales. If anything, I'd expect to see an increase in DVD sales as a result. I see iTunes as more of a fill-in (because you missed it), catch up (because you missed it), or trial (because you missed it) library. Or, as in the case of the one unaired Night Stalker episode that's on iTunes, because it's the only place in the US to see it. But I can see it functioning more to introduce people to shows they might have missed, and if they're at all likely to purchase a DVD set, getting a chance to see the show will either cement the purchase or not. In the meantime, the creators of the show have gotten not only a payment but a hit on the show. I can see iTunes and other services like it being factored more into ratings-based decisions than adversely affecting DVD sales.

In other words, Fox needs to put Arrested Development out there on a popular download model, and get people watching so there's some ammunition to keep the show in production!

 

[ElijahS]

Well, it's certainly helped The Office.

 

[EricW]

why are people so hung up on screen quality? like if it isn't super clear on a 50" screen, it's not good enough for them. do you never eat fast food? wear sneakers? i'd never choose my ipod over my tv at home, but on a subway, or at a restaurant waiting for friends to show up, or ESPECIALLY on a plane, the ipod video is amazing. have you even ~seen~ it? i recently showed my friend who said he'd never consider it. it's actually quite nice for its size. while i don't watch tv shows as much on it, i especially like ripping favourite scenes form my DVDs (like 2 - 5 minutes each) and putting them on there. think "star wars and matrix greatest actions scenes collection". and also ripping segments from Chappelle, it's hilarious.

having said that, i'd never buy tv shows off itunes (unless to sample a series) when i could just buy the DVDs, rip them onto the ipod and have both. and also to get more techinical, when i rip them myself, i can control the bitrates to control file size better.

 

[Mary_P]

Amen to that! (Hey, ABC/Showtime/HBO/anybody-else-Hurwitz-might-be-talking-with, are you listening? I so hope someone picks up this show!)

Actually, there was an article not that long ago that suggested that legal download or on-demand schemes such as this might actually save shows that had a dedicated fan base but were struggling in the ratings. It would be a way of putting your money where your mouth is WHILE THE SHOW IS STILL IN PRODUCTION, rather than the studio/network finding out there's interest a year later when the DVD comes out [cough*Firefly*cough]. So, looked at that way, it might actually keep struggling shows in production longer and the end result could be more DVD product at the end of the day.

All rank speculation, of course, but it seems plausible to me....