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I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Sam Posten, May 31, 2008.

  1. Sam Posten

    Sam Posten Moderator
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    Anecdotal evidence, I know, but my family is starting to ask about Blu Ray, Blockbuster is pushing it heavily, and for the first time there was a significant selection of BDs under $20, may for $16.95 at Best Buy tonight.

    Christmas will be huge. Count on it.
     
  2. Stephen_J_H

    Stephen_J_H All Things Film Junkie
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    I was in the mall today and EB Games is running a promo on the PS3: trade in 8 games and get a 40 GB PS3 for $199.99. I've also seen the BD-UP5000 for $399.99, so sub $300 BD players can't be far off. Combine that with some titles now showing up for under $20 and BD may make into a few more homes.
     
  3. Nick P

    Nick P Second Unit

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    In my opinion, cheaper software is the key to success. I think most people are willing to swallow a one time higher price for the hardware but, like myself, do not want ot shell out 25-35 dollars for new releases each week.
     
  4. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    I noticed that the Walmart near me, which has never carried players, now has a few Sony blu-ray players.

    They also have an end cap with blu-ray movies, most priced around $24.

    Good news as far as I'm concerned.

    Doug
     
  5. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    I think some people are willing to pay a little more, but not much more. And I don't think most people are willing to pay more than the cost of a regular DVD player, IE $50 to $100 for a blu-ray player.

    Doug
     
  6. Joseph Bolus

    Joseph Bolus Screenwriter

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    The Wal-Mart Superstore near me now has an entire aisle dedicated to Blu-Ray titles for the very first time. The aisle is currently about 60% empty, but we all know that Wal-Mart's not going to waste shelf space like that, so I expect it to start to fill up rapidly.

    The bottom line is that it does appear as though retailers are getting ready now for a big Fall push for the format. (In "retailer-ese" Fall means August!)
     
  7. Marc Colella

    Marc Colella Screenwriter

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    That shelf space at Walmart was paid for, so their anticipation of future sales isn't playing a factor.

    I don't think we'll see much of a difference in the acceptance of Blu-Ray this Christmas.
     
  8. PaulDA

    PaulDA Screenwriter

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    If that's true, then there will NOT be a big move to BD for at least another year (if not longer). People may have all sorts of personal reasons for not wanting to spend more than that (budget, other priorities in life, etc.) but IF they expect that BD players SHOULD cost the SAME as current SD DVD players (a more than TEN year old technology), they are being unrealistic and, simply, wrong. I did not expect my first DVD player (bought in 2000, about the same time frame as current BD players in their cycle) to cost me what a typical VCR cost at the time (and it did not--I paid a great deal more). I had many friends who were unwilling to spend more than the cost of a VCR (perfectly valid) but none of them EXPECTED, at that moment, that a DVD player SHOULD cost the same. They simply waited.

    The same applies today. If someone wants to pay no more than a current SD DVD player goes for, then they should NOT complain about not having a BD player NOW. It is simply not a realistic expectation.
     
  9. Brandon Conway

    Brandon Conway captveg

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    You can get the Magnavox Profile 1.1 player at Wal-Mart for under $300 right now. Pretty good player for a non-enthusiast, too.
     
  10. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    Its not a matter of them expecting anything. Its a matter of them going, "oh you mean I can get a blu-ray player and it's only a little more than a standard DVD Player? Okay sure".

    I just don't think that HD is important enough to most people to invest in it unless it's close in price to current DVD players. I don't think most people would even consider a blu-ray player unless someone points out that they aren't much more than an SD player.

    Doug
     
  11. troy evans

    troy evans Screenwriter

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    There's no doubt in my mind Blu-ray is here to stay. People were just as unwilling to upgrade at this stage in the cycle with sd dvd vs VHS. The reason sd dvd won out was the ease of a disc based system. No rewinding, lasts a lifetime, special features, etc. People believe that the leap to sd dvd was so significant over VHS that Blu-ray just can't wow the people for it to happen again? Wrong. It will happen and Blu-ray has one monumental benifit going for it sd dvd did not, I can still watch all my sd dvds on my Blu-ray player. We couldn't do that with VHS. That will help make the transition much easier and much faster.
     
  12. Travis Brashear

    Travis Brashear Screenwriter

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    Same thing at my Wal-Mart...it's like Blu-ray just exploded in the place now (though they're gonna have to put some titles up at the front displays by the register to really seal the deal). I truly think this will start turning the tide because one thing customers usually won't stand for is something so seemingly popular that it's all over the place, yet they, as individuals, have no clue what it is. That's when they will finally turn to the techno-geeks (the "you and me's") in their lives they've been ignoring to this point and, at last, word of mouth will begin to work its magic; when J6P sees our excitement in the product, then the effect of "keeping up with the Joneses" will begin to take hold. And, frankly, Blu-ray is going to succeed one way or another because the tide of progress will ensure nearly everyone will have an HDTV within the next decade and no one is going to be satisfied at that point with DVDs that look worse than their HD cable/satellite. All this talk about will it happen, or will it boast the numbers DVD boasted by this point are all vapor...
     
  13. Marc Colella

    Marc Colella Screenwriter

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    VHS was long in the tooth at the point of DVDs arrival and the transition was worth it because of how much better DVD was over VHS. DVD is still relatively new and the difference is minimal. And I continue to state that compatability only works in one direction... those new BD movies cant be played in DVD players throughout the house, etc... it's no biggie for me, but that doesnt go over well with a lot of families.
     
  14. Jesse Blacklow

    Jesse Blacklow Screenwriter

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    Well, that's a rather obtuse argument, and it contradicts your VHS->DVD argument, since that was even bigger incompatibility. At least with Blu-ray, you can still use your DVDs, and even get better PQ out of them. That didn't exist with VHS at all.
     
  15. Jesse Blacklow

    Jesse Blacklow Screenwriter

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  16. Adam Gregorich

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    I agree. I think a lot customers can stomach a HW premium. Obviously they will sell more as the player prices go down, but I think $299 is the magic price point for a lot of people. I do think that the higher SW prices and lack of selection at Target/Walmart class stores are the bigger obsticle. There needs to be a bigger percieved value than picture and sound quality for most people to justify paying $40 vs $20. Lowering SW prices by $5 and making sure that they have a decent amount of special features (to help "justify" the cost) will go a long way.
     
  17. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    Adam, 30+ dollar HD discs are sometimes on the same advertising page with a DVD counterpart that's sub $10.

    Count me as one who believes folks understand the hardware cost but are just peeved at the media prices. $35 discs sittin' in Tar-geaux & Busted Buy are providing passive advertisement against Blu adoption. It's a warning flag to civilians to avoid the format.

    I'd be shocked if Blu passed 5% market-share anytime soon. Given the recession, I don't think a boom is coming for Christmas.
     
  18. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    As I've stated so many times beforehand, Blu-ray software needs to be more affordable if they want to increase the adoption of HDM/Blu-ray. Just about every catalog title needs to be lower than the $20 pricepoint. New titles should be about $25 and these are sale prices at BB, Walmart and the like.






    Crawdaddy
     
  19. TonyD

    TonyD Who do we think I am?

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    wasn't the pricing of sd dvd just about in line with this for the first few years?

    i remmember that first wave of disney dvds, they were all a 39.99 price point.

    And wasn't the Fox dvds the same as their lu-ray pricing, nearly $40 list.

    also what is tar-geaux?
     
  20. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    Tar-geaux is me mispelling Tar-jeaux.....Target store.
     

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