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Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Nick Graham, Mar 12, 2008.

  1. FrancisP

    FrancisP Well-Known Member

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    Actually this single unified format is silly. It's a convenient excuse for people to explain why hd media has not taken off. They can't admit that the market is not ready for hd media as yet. Certainly Toshiba and Sony didn't help by trying to drive each other out of business rather than focusing on selling their products to the public.

    A January pricegrabber survey found 56% would purchase a bluray player only with significant price cuts. Only 19% were worried about obsolecense in terms of hd-dvd vs bluray. A previous survey in December gave hd-dvd around a 9 point edge over bluray among second wave adopters. This was entirely due to price. Rather than consumers being confused, consumers know exactly what they want. Lower prices.
     
  2. Jesse Blacklow

    Jesse Blacklow Well-Known Member

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    And I still find it astounding that people who are lecturing others on how consumers "chose" VHS and DVD still believe the industry didn't step in for both of those formats as well.

    I'm sorry, but anyone who claims HD DVD was the "choice" of the consumer is ignoring everything but the HD DVD PRG's obufscation. For instance, Toshiba took the money and ran in their licensing deals with the Chinese in 1998/1999 that ended up gutting almost all of their CE partners. It's no surprise that the entire rest of the industry formed the BDF (later the BDA). They tried the same thing this time around, and it not only pissed off the few CE partners they had left, but also the studios who had lost billions to Chinese piracy. And as I said in another thread, Warner did the exact same thing with DVD in 1996, except they supported Toshiba then. It didn't help that everybody but Microsoft and Universal more or less admitted that Toshiba had been manipulating the market (and by extension, the consumers) by artificially lowering prices. For a good example of this, read Onkyo's statements from Dec/Jan, and then check out Toshiba's financial statements that state their CE division lost nearly a billion dollars thanks to HD DVD.
     
  3. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Well-Known Member

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    Every study has also indicated that when consumers buy a new HDTV is the time that they are most likely to buy an HDM player. That was one reason why the CE manufacturers wanted this format war over ASAP because HDTV sales are starting to pick up briskly and they didn't want to miss the window of opportuntity with an industry-supported HDM product to sell along with it.

    HDM is experiencing a faster adoption curve and higher sales right now than DVD had at this stage in its life cycle. Can we stop with the FUD about HDM not selling?
     
  4. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    The market is ready for HDM, but it's growth will not be as pronounced as SD DVD due to additional HT purchases required to fully enjoy the HD experience. However, HDM will be a successful format and will become more than a niche market just not on the same level as SD DVD or VHS. To expect it to have 85-90% market penetration is a lot to ask, but I can see 40-50% over the next 5-10 years.






    Crawdaddy
     
  5. RobertR

    RobertR Well-Known Member

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    40% would be perfectly fine with me. Even half that (20%) would still make it FAR more successful than laserdisc. HDM in (nearly) every home isn't important to me.
     
  6. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    I helped three of my friends buy new HDTVs over the last three months or so. They asked me a bunch of questions about HDM and I'd advise them after the Warner announcement that Blu-ray is their best option, but they were turned off by the pricing of hardware and software. These people are mass market examples that the industry needs to convince to spend their money on a HDM player, but that's only going to happen until the pricing becomes affordable to these people. Most of us on this forum and similar internet sites are HT enthusiasts, we're small in numbers in comparison to the mass market, yet some of us that bought the other format are still bitter about the outcome of the format war and continue to exert their energies towards the negative. However, as soon as standalone BR players are priced competitively with HD DVD players and more BR software becomes available that really excites HT enthusiasts, even most of them will concede and buy a BR player. When that happens then additional market penetration will take place among the mass market because pricing has decreased to a level that becomes affordable to the average consumer. Again, IMO, I seriously doubt that HDM market penetration will ever approach the levels of SD DVD/VHS, but it will be significant enough for the industry to enjoy further revenue streams. It really is up to the industry not to screw this pooch, but you never know as we've seen them do such a thing beforehand.






    Crawdaddy
     
  7. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Well-Known Member

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    Robert,

    your points about BD hardware needing some lower price points to net some sales along side all of those HDTV purchases is well taken. I think that we'll see the CE manufacturers start to respond to that by this Holiday season if not sooner.


    Agreed.
     
  8. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    Then we're in agreement because I see the industry reacting to lower pricing too in the 4th quarter. I expect rumors about lower pricing to start filtering out during the 3rd quarter leading right up to CEDIA.





    Crawdaddy
     
  9. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Well-Known Member

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    By that time we should have more 2.0 profile players too. It's taken (too) long in getting here, but this holiday season we'll probably finally be with BD hardware where we should have been a long time ago (fully featured players at reasonable prices).
     
  10. FrankT

    FrankT Well-Known Member

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    I agree. People need to see the BD software the same price as SD software and go, "So for the same price I get something that looks better, cool?". That is when you will have them not when they have to pay "10 bucks more for almost the same thing, know way." Notice how they are getting better quality in both cases but they do not see it that way.
     
  11. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Well-Known Member

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    Well, I think there are some roadblocks to blu ray mass adoption and here they are

    1. Price: Now that the war is over, hardware prices have actually risen and now the sweet software deals are all but gone and fox is out of control on pricing iwth little or no features

    2. HDTV not yet in a majority of homes : We are now at 30% of homes having HDTV and rising, but it will be hard for product to be mainstream when HDTV is not yet mainstream.

    3. VHS to DVD DVD to Blu Ray: I am not going to even get into the visual improvements arguement, becaue i own blu and red and yes the visuals are stunning on some titles, but Blu Ray is not a revolutionary new product, more like an evolutionary product and so unlike VHS, there is no real push to dump your collection and start over like there was

    4. Upconversion: Upconversion may be the greatest enemy to blu. When done well, upconversion can look outstanding, no not blu quality, but still. Now with Toshiba and it sounds like microsoft was well, they are going to rolling out super up con later this year to further enhance upconversion. I have seen some slides and it does look damn good.

    Blu ray may remain niche, but that is fine with me. I am not rebuying my collection, but instead am focusing the ones that I truly love. I learned from dvd that impulse buying and over buying just for the sake of collecting leads to unwatched stacks and an empty wallet. Take this week for example, I love no country for old men, so I may buy blu, but since it is not an effects film, so i will probably buy in sd.
    Blu Ray will be around for along time, but so will dvd, maybe even longer
     
  12. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Well-Known Member

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    Are you talking about that early post about Toshiba's supposed effort with the new DVD spec? Where did personally get to see this miracle upconversion algorithm in action?
     
  13. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Well-Known Member

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    As I have already stated in the other thread, I totally believe your descriptiong, but I do not think all of the world shares your opinion. I do believe that the best upconversion will look less than the bd, but what I am really saying is cost/value realted. I mean how much is 6 times the resultion worth

    I will try to find the link and site that had the super up con stuff on it
     
  14. PaulDA

    PaulDA Well-Known Member

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    I have to agree with the upconverting posing a challenge. I have a 64 inch screen with an AW15 and from 8 feet away I've done several A/B comparison with HD DVD and SD DVD. Sometimes it is spectacularly different, sometimes it is subtle. I always notice a difference but several people have commented that if I did not point out specific differences, they wouldn't notice (now, I realize my PJ is 720p but it has excellent video processing--I send it 480i with SD DVD and let it do all the work--moreover, HD DVD was sent via HDMI while the 480i signal was via component, so HD DVD should have had an edge on that front alone; also, each input has been DVE calibrated).

    Clearly HT enthusiasts are far more likely to notice the differences and while even the casual observer CAN sometimes see a difference, to them it simply is NOT always a significant enough improvement to warrant the effort/cost. To deny that is unrealistic.
     
  15. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Well-Known Member

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    QFT
     
  16. Michael Reuben

    Michael Reuben Well-Known Member

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    I suspect this is a common point of view, especially among the general buying public whose adoption of HDM we're talking about. But it's utterly wrong, and I would hope that here, among HT enthusiasts, there would be a better understanding of the importance of more picture information in a visual medium, no matter the nature of the film.

    Any film with locations or crowd scenes will show immediate benefts from HDM. If you want to see a good example, compare the establishing shot of San Francisco in Basic Instinct when the detectives first go to Catherine's home. The Lionsgate Blu-ray shows you the city in all its glory. The Artisan DVD looks like an amateur snapshot by comparison.

    One of the most dramatic HDM viewing experiences I've had to date is the Warner HD DVD of Casablanca (viewed on HD DVD simply because there no Blu-ray version to date). Despite the familiarity of the film, which I've seen a dozen times or more, it was like seeing a new movie, because the hi-def format reveals depth and detail that probably hasn't been seen since the film last played in theaters.

    And while upconversion can be great, it cannot supply picture detail that isn't there to begin with.

    M.
     
  17. Michael Reuben

    Michael Reuben Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if you'd get the same result with a 1080p projector. Because you're actually tossing out a significant portion of what the HDM has to offer.

    M.
     
  18. TravisR

    TravisR Well-Known Member

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    The 'sweet software deals' are gone because the holiday season is over. If both formats were still around, there'd be no deals now either. IF the 2008 holidays go by and there's no deals then I'll agree that the deals are dead but until then, it's just that stores aren't as intent on getting you in the door as they are during the holidays.

    And for what it's worth, Target has a buy one get one free Blu Ray sale next week.
     
  19. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Well-Known Member

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    I agree with most of that, except that just because I think some movies do not warrant an HD upgrade, does not mean I am not an enthusiast. If I had an unlimited amount of money, all movies would be purchased on bd, but i am picking and choosing to get the most for my money. At this stage, I cannot afford to buy all on HDM. I am buying those that I love on HDM and in the future as prices fall, I will buy more.
     
  20. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Well-Known Member

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    yeah, i saw that. Endgadget was reporting that hardware prices have started to rise. The target sale might be good if the titles are decent
     

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