Blu Ray delivers another blow to hd. (1 Viewer)

[Dan Hitchman]

The question for me is will the PS3 be like Toshiba's initial HD-DVD players... light on features to play actual movies with the best possible quality?

In order to output ALL audio and video stream permutations on HDMI (for the most part consider analog component video dead for HD because there are enough studios wanting to kill it) you need at least HDMI 1.3 chip support (there is no way to software upgrade HDMI hardware). That hasn't even been placed on silicon yet as it was JUST ratified.

Will the PS3 have HDMI 1.3 compatibility in time for a launch?

There are also not a lot of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD authoring tools out there. Many studios (like Sony) may be using MPEG-2 compression for the time being (with lower than you'd expect bitrates given the inefficient nature of this 10 year old codec).

So, even if PIXAR releases titles right away, will they have the best possible A/V quality if they're only released on 25 GB Blu-Ray discs?

Dan

 

[FrancisP]

It's going to be up to the market. If HD-DVD does sell well enough then Disney will release discs in HD-DVD. BR needs a quick and decisive victory over HD-DVD. If in 12-24 months they are still slugging it out then a number of BR only
studios will likely defect.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

I respectfully disagree.

At this point, there is no way that HD DVD will "win" as a single format over BD. Worst case we end up with both disc formats and universal players with different studios producing preferred versions of high-def media.

Disney will have no incentive to adopt HD DVD even if the formats are still "slugging it out" in 12 - 24 months. In fact, I think that many in the industry expecct that the two formats may be slugging it out for exactly that amount of time. Considering that HD DVD will be out of the gate first, it would be a year MINIMUM before anything decicive takes place in the market one way or another without any dramatic interviening event like Toshiba taking a bow etc.

The ONLY possible way I could see the Blu-ray-only studios moving to HD DVD is if Blu ray ceased to be a format altogether. And of all the possible outcomes of this "format war" that's the least likely to happen.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

In response to Ken's post a few posts back regarding speculation on WB's intentions to release certain titles exclusively on HD DVD...

From the bits on the WB press event:



and more here:

http://www.videobusiness.com/articl...s+%2F+Suppliers


Thanks to Juan and Ken for posting this in another thread.

 

[Paul_Scott]

guess i was just whistling out of my ass again.
i'm really surprised that Warner would give up a good advantage like this. in light of this, the only thing that is going to determine when i get a blu-ray player is price/value.
i've been more excited by HD DVD because it seems the price points are going to be closer to my budget early on, as well as its lure of utilizing more advanced codecs.

even if a Blu-ray player can hit a $500 price point this year, it sounds like the format is still going to be compromised by no alternative mpeg-2.
i'm looking forward to the James Bond movies in HD but are they really going to get a chance to shine?

seems like a monumental waste now to be getting a HD DVD player, but if the reviews are positive i guess i will still be popping for one anyway.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

While I'm bummed about the (stupid) lack of VC1 with Sony's inititial BD authoring tools, it should be added before too long (within the first year by another vendor) and I'll bet that WB will hold back many titles a few months so thay can release on BD using VC1...I doubt they'll be making every title available the day BD is launched (when MPEG2 is the only option).

Personally, I hope they do hold back a few gems so they can get the VC1 privilege on BD. I'd rather wait a few months for VC1 than get a MPEG2 WB title the first month of BD's launch.





Keep in mind that HD DVD is *Toshiba's* baby, not WB's. True, WB and Toshiba have been close companions for quite a while but the moment WB declared "dual support" for BD as well was the moment they let the world know they were *not* supporting HD DVD. Their "support" for the format as seen with the launch of HD DVD titles is more for show and to keep up diplomatic/political ties with Toshiba, who is no doubt feeling a bit betrayed.

If WB had any intention of making HD DVD succeed in favor of BD, they never would have taken a dual-support stance.

 

[MarcoBiscotti]

I think that most of you are overlooking a key factor here...


It really doesn't matter which format makes it to market first or how many units the PS3 sells and so on.

Why?

Because the average Joe doesn't even know about high-definition DVD nor realize that any 'format-war' is going on. It is people like us, who frequent tech forums and understand the hardware and hold certain expectations, that are going to be buying into this market exclusively at launch. You average Joe is not going to just stroll into his local media outlet and decide to pick up a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD title at $10-15 more the cost of standard redbook DVD without any knowledge of what he/she is purchasing nor understanding the compatibility of his/her new purchase from a hardware end.

It just won't happen. Not with a PS3 in their home or any other factor. Not until many months to even years down the line at the very least, when the concept becomes more familiar to the buying public.

Until that happens, the only people who will ever go out and purchase any media software in high-definition, will be those that know about and understand the format. Those people are almost exclusively supportive of Blu-Ray technology. So it seems to me, that there was never really any format war to begin with. It's over for that simple reason alone... the target market is a niche sector and will remain limited and exclusive for some time to people like us, who will determine what format succeeds and which fails. Since we will almost exclusively be buying into HD, the whole VHS-Betamax analogy cannot be applied. We are going to put our support behind the better and more capable and user-friendly technology and that is Blu-Ray. With the majority of sales carrying over in the first year of launch, and on the flipside... consider the assumably poor numbers HD-DVD will pull due to an almost exclusive lack of support from the CONSUMER end, it seems a done deal.

It doesn't matter how many studios back either format if the buyers are putting their support exclusively behind one. And it's not just the potential consumers, but the majority of media coverage has favored BD as well the major internet outlets such as The Digital Bits and similar review sites, tech forums and so on.. and belive it or not, they do hold authority!

How is HD-DVD going to content with that?

By the time the general public actually becomes aware of all of this and catches up to high-definition, it will be too late. BD will be the champion format and the fact that a vast number of homes will already be equipped thanks to Sony's PS3 will have broken the camel's back. That is the only time when it should have any significant impact. Because as of now, nobody is buying into high-definition DVD without sufficient knowledge of this, and those people know that HD-DVD is the lesser format.

 

[MarcoBiscotti]

So I wonder if this means that they will be mirrored in content and form, apart from their higher-res capabilites?

If that's the plan, I think the era of high-definition DVD might catch on a lot sooner than expected. If I'm able to walk into a store next Tuesday anticipating the release of something like "The Maltese Falcon" which I've been anxiously awaiting to surface on DVD... and see that it's available in the same context only in higher-rez and offering better pq and audio, I'm sold.

I think that's what should be done. Continue putting the same ammount of effort and thought into redbook DVD, but release HD titles alongside so that people have the option.

I think it's a brilliant strategy and the only way to go about this. My only concern is for back catalogues, but hopefully that will be addressed in a similar manner - mirroring existing releases (unless where insufficient in any ways) only in HD transfers.

I'd have my DVD catalogue replaced within a year.

 

[FrancisP]

I'm glad you went out and talked to every one of those people. I do think that there are people out there that will be attracted to HD-DVD and see it as a cheap way to get into HD.

The fact that HD-DVD will start out at $500 and the chinese versions at least $100 less create a new variable. SD did not break into the mainstream until SD players got around that mark. Walmart started selling DVD recorders ar $550.

Who will win? We'll see when the cards are turned over and how people react to those cards. All of this is speculation.
People could be right or wrong.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

I'm sure there will be folks interested in HD DVD players.

But without buying a Blu-ray player that's leaving many studios Hi-Def content on the shelf (Disney, Sony, MGM, Fox), and if you're going to get a BD player, why by an HD DVD player *too* (only Universal will have HD DVD titles not on BD...and that's not forever)?

Not to mention that Blu-ray players that are more affordable than those yet mentioned will become available and close the price gap...so the lust-factor of a cheap player won't be an HD DVD exclusive either.

 

[John_McKittrick]

I've been reading that the PS3 may actually cost as much as $800. Don't count on it being the one player to bring Blue Ray into homes.

This format war can go either way so I'm not going to rule out HD-DVD just yet.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

It won't cost $800. Sony will lose money if they have to in order to sell if for less. Wait and see.

 

[Nathan A]

I too believe that the PS3 will be much less than $800. I can't imagine it going for over $500, and even $500 is hard to believe. But I could be wrong. Sony must be confident with its comfortable lead in the console game, so who knows if they think that they can get away with an $800 machine. Even still, I expect a price of around $400 and at most $500.

 

[BrettGallman]

I don't see PS3 being more than $450 at the most, just to compete with the X-Box 360. No way they'll come out with something that costs twice as much as a 360. It just won't happen.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Actually I don't. I expect there to be several *more* Blu-ray players priced less than $800 as well...

 

[Ken_F]

I think the Matsushita (Panasonic) comments from a few weeks back are relevant here -- that BD manufacturers aren't that interested in competing with the PS3 with first-generation players where demand is low, component options are limited, and costs are high. That certainly sounds like it would apply to JVC, which tends to focus more on mass market consumer electronics products.

I do think we'll see BD players this year, but I personally don't see many value or mid-range choices in the first generation, aside from the PS3.

 

[Ed St. Clair]

How can this be when PS3 is right around the corner?
Are any BD drives being built (for U.S. market) at this time?
Thanks.

 

[Kyle_D]

Previously, May had been the expected Japanese launch date, with a US launch in the fall, however developers are supposedly having a hard time programming for the PS3, pushing the launch date back so they can finish their titles. There have been rumors elsewhere that Sony still hasn't finalized the PS3 specs and that working units are still a ways off, but again, those are rumors.

 

[Dave Scarpa]

Yeah I've never read a firm date for the PS3, it's always been estimations and Guesses. And this info coming out might suggest it's further out than anyone thinks

 

[Ed St. Clair]

WoW
Thanks for the update guys!
If HD-DVD had its act together it could make a dent into the general publics HD future. However, they remind me of DVD-A, just running around with their pants around their ankles! :-o

Could this thread title be changed from "hd" to HD-DVD?
Thanks.
Right now it kind of freaks me out! ;-)