4"+ smartphones -- the market has spoken (and it says yes) (1 Viewer)

[RobertR]

You're right. They're reported to be within a few percent of the total Android marketshare. And they've been increasing.

That was last year. This year, they've lost ground again.
http://www.droid-life.com/2012/05/07/androids-market-share-balloons-to-61-in-the-u-s-during-q1-ios-drops-to-29/

 

[Sam Posten]

To me market share is an interesting but ultimately useless statistic. You can claim "We're number one!" and then what? I don't understand at all the mentality that market share is more valuable than profitability but we've tread that ground before...
OSX has has single digit market share all its life, hasn't really hurt.
I'd take any of the following over market share:
Profitability
Customer Satisfaction
Design
Desirability
Add in "customizability and choice" in there somewhere. Obviously Android destroys Apple in those two factors. They are important in some ways but they hamper the above in some ways too. It's all tradeoffs. And to a lesser degree I'd add security. Security is impacted by customization and open-ness, but again tradeoffs.
Durability is in there somewhere too but I'd say all of the choices are roughly equal in that factor -except- in those models which sacrifice everything for durability, and those are not interesting to me....

 

[RobertR]

To me market share is an interesting but ultimately useless statistic.

That's fine, but I was responding to Dave's post about Apple's market share (he seemed to think it was of some importance). And large market share does indicate that a lot of people approve of a product, else the share wouldn't be so large.

 

[Sam Posten]

Righto. I guess what prompted me to say what I did is the idea that they are "losing ground". Essentially Apple was first to market with a capacitive touch screen phone and as soon as anyone came up with something remotely close to that they have been losing ground from 100% market share ever since =)
Reminder of what android looked like before iPhone was announced:
http://gizmodo.com/334909/google-android-prototype-in-the-wild
Looks a LOT more like RIM, Palm and Windows Mobile than an iPhone amirite?
Sure there was a smartphone market before iPhone, but I bet that android and iPhone sales today eclipse those EACH DAY than what they used to sell cumulaively in a year. My math may be off but it's got to be near that ratio.

 

[DaveF]

That's fine, but I was responding to Dave's post about Apple's market share (he seemed to think it was of some importance). And large market share does indicate that a lot of people approve of a product, else the share wouldn't be so large.

I don't think marketshare is necessarily important per se, as I've made clear previously.
What I found interesting is that Apple dominates the market in all aspects: profitshare and marketshare, against any individual phone manufacturer but also nearly against any other brand / OS.

 

[RobertR]

also nearly against any other brand / OS.

61% to 29% is not "near".

 

[Sam Posten]

Some evidence to support OP's claim:
http://arstechnica.com/apple/2012/08/users-choose-androids-over-iphones-due-to-larger-screens-android-market/
I don't doubt that people think they want a bigger phone before buying them. What I continue to doubt is that real people (ie not geeks and bloggers) really really like them after using them for a while.

 

[Hanson]

I don't doubt that people think they want a bigger phone before buying them. What I continue to doubt is that real people (ie not geeks and bloggers) really really like them after using them for a while.

Based on... nothing? The trend appears to be moving to larger and larger screens, not smaller. So your conjecture seems to be based more on a personal preference you think is shared by most people rather than, you know... reality.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

It's really hard to say who would really want bigger phones. Some non-geeks may want them just because bigger screens are easier on the eyes even though they may not feel great in the hand for phone calls.

Honestly, if you ask me, I think *ALL* cellphones suck in terms of phone call ergo (in my hand) anyway, and the degrees of diff are quite small and/or too personal to apply such broad strokes about it. And at the end of the day, I suspect people who care about the ergo aspect will probably just go w/ a BT headset instead. Certainly, if I expect to talk long on my BB phone, which isn't big at all, I'd prefer to use my wired Sennheiser headset (that I normally use for music) instead. Besides, I also dislike having to regularly clean oil (and sweat for some other folks) off the screen anyway, and I still only have a BB, not your typical touch-screen smartphone w/ plenty more screen to clean.

FWIW, my mother doesn't want any smartphone at all precisely because the screens are really too small for her poor eyes to use. Same goes for my mother-in-law.

Like I've said before, I'd rather have a 7" tablet to go w/ a BB or something dumber for my phone, especially if I can use BT to link them for some basic stuff like phone book, etc. Heck, just let me have that 8" iPad Mini already w/ some way to make phone calls directly on it w/ my headset instead.

_Man_

 

[Sam Posten]

And it only took you 14 months to admit it ;-p

Cmon you always want to put words in my mouth... I haven't changed what I have said and it seems Apple is on track to do exactly what I posited they might do:

If Apple makes a bigger iPhone you can be sure it will be nothing like the bigger Androids that you are a fan of. And I cannot speculate whether that device would captivate me enough to buy one or not but I suspect that they would have to make the form factor different enough to be worth it. I'd have to give it a hard look and evaluate it on it's own merits for being my next phone. I don't like the bigger androids today because of a number of factors:
-The form isn't comfortable in my hands
-The resolution is about equivalent to the iPad and I'd rather have a bigger device with that (OR BETTER!) pixel density or a smaller device with remarkable pixel density, this seems like a poor equivalent for the size
-They tend to eat up more battery life
Could Apple solve these issues and make me happy? Probably. I bet an Android developer who wanted to could too, but I'm not holding my breath for either of them to do so.

So I'd say keeping the WIDTH of a 3.5" iPhone and adding to the top and bottom while shaving 25% of the thickness out pretty much qualifies here. I am NOT convinced it is worth the pain but I am willing to hear Apple out here. I believe that there is more to it than just "Android has big phones we need to too, hur hur".

Based on... nothing? The trend appears to be moving to larger and larger screens, not smaller. So your conjecture seems to be based more on a personal preference you think is shared by most people rather than, you know... reality.

Based on dozens of real people of all walks of life telling me that the big ass phones look ridiculous, are a pain to pocket, and don't do anything better than the smaller ones do and often have worse OTHER pixel characteristics particularly pixel density (especially the cheaper ones, not the top end ones).

 

[Hanson]

Originally Posted by ManW_TheUncool /t/310298/4-smartphones-the-market-has-spoken-and-it-says-yes/90#post_3962170
Like I've said before, I'd rather have a 7" tablet to go w/ a BB or something dumber for my phone, especially if I can use BT to link them for some basic stuff like phone book, etc. Heck, just let me have that 8" iPad Mini already w/ some way to make phone calls directly on it w/ my headset instead.

_Man_

http://gigaom.com/mobile/heres-why-tablets-yes-tablets-will-replace-the-smartphone/

And Sam, it seems like fanboy posturing to assume everything Apple does is wonderful and purposeful while any other implementation is awful. There's been little advancement in iOS 5 & 6 that isn't more than aping Android features. 4" iPhones and iPad Minis are obvious reactions to existing Android products. Now Cupertino has decided to litigate to slow down Android innovation so they can resume their dribs and drabs iterations. It's starting to smell like another post-Jobs stagnation and implosion at Apple. Remember -- it wasn't that long ago that RIM appeared invincible. It could happen.

It's no mystery to me that every time Apple copies Android, the feature somehow passes your sniff test where it wasn't necessary beforehand. That's why it's hard to take your opinions of non-Apple systems and form factors seriously.

 

[Sam Posten]

Ok, list some examples please of my flip flopping? Wrt ios 6 i am on record noting the OS is mature and not much that excited me so...
WRT suing Jobs noted on Day 1 they had a patent arsenal and would use it.

 

[Sam Posten]

Pants are adapting to this trend!!!!
http://theawesomer.com/engineer-pant/199076/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAwesomer+%28The+Awesomer%29
=)

 

[Hanson]

Frankly, the obesity crisis in America is adapting to this trend. Larger pants = larger pockets.

 

[Sam Posten]

Did you even look at the link, Hanson? Pants themselves are quite tapered and are almost "skinny jean" designed. It's the big buckets formed by the loose pocket that is the evolutionary adaptation here.
I'm a fat guy. My pockets are no bigger than on an average persons pockets. It's easy to make fun of fat people I know but unless you are one you wouldn't realize this. I'd have trouble with a 5" phone in my normal work pants due to the width on them and there is no way a 7" tablet (at least none of the ones I own, Kindle Fire, Kindle Fire HD, or Nexus 7) fits in any of my jeans or khaki pockets. You could lug around a couple tablets in the pants modeled above. Maybe even a 10" tablet.

 

[Hanson]

I looked at the link, which made no specific mention or large smartphones or tablets (the pockets were suggested for tools and beers).

I am, like any forty-something dads, not as fit as I was in my younger days, and as such my pockets fit everything, including my Galaxy Note 2. The comment about the obesity epidemic was both self-deprecating and depressing.

Also, there's no way on god's green earth I would pay over $100 for pants. Not to mention all of the ribbing I would have to endure if I wore those in public.

 

[Hanson]

Are you ready for a 6.3" phone?

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57558958-94/galaxy-note-3-with-6.3-inch-display-reportedly-in-the-works/

I'm in a bit of a bind here -- my 5.5" Note 2 is scraping the limits of one-handed usability. A 6.3" device would be unusable with one hand.

At the same time, it would kill me to go any smaller now. Maybe someone else will make a 5.5"-5.8" device with an active digitizer to fill the void.

Oh yeah, these are just rumors, so I'll try not to get ahead of myself.

 

[DaveF]

What do you suppose the perfect phone size is? Folks here rave over a 5.5" phone. Maybe there's a 6" phone coming. Will that be better? Will the ultimate phone be an 8" iPad mini with voice service?

 

[Hanson]

I read the original article, and it appears that there is likely a 6.3" device, but it was assumed by the writer that it was the Note 3. I think it's more likely the Note 3 will be 5.8" with an edge to edge screen while the 6.3" device will be a whole other brand. Then again, that's what I'm hoping for, since 6.3" blows pass the cutoff of what I'd consider a phone. The Note 2 is huge, but I can pull it out of my pocket, make a call with one hand, and put it up to my ear. A 6.3" device is more like a tablet that makes calls.

I feel like the size of the Note 2 is about as big as you can get and still be a usable phone. I was never presented with the opportunity to get the first Note, but the one I played with felt too big. The Note 2 is narrower and thinner, which is the reason why it's much more ergonomic than the Note 1.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Yeah, I tend to agree w/ Hanson though I would certainly consider buying a new tablet that makes phone calls (as I've said on multiple occasions). I'm now starting to lug the iPad3 w/ me almost everywhere anyway (in my DSLR slingbag), so... Definitely would need to use a headset for that of course -- and not sure my wired Sennheiser px200i's would do anymore as the wire probably gets in the way for quick access to stuff in my bag.
_Man_