2012 trends/guestimates/ predictions. (1 Viewer)

[vnisanian2001]

As I said before, Warner doesn't have to worry about sales for their MOD titles in order for them continue.

 

[TVonDVDJunkie05]

Originally Posted by vnisanian2001

As I said before, Warner doesn't have to worry about sales for their MOD titles in order for them continue.

So you are saying that if only 1 person buys S1 of The Courtship of Eddie's Father (for example) that they will continue on and make S2 and 3 available for sale?!


If sales are not an issue then why are they not releasing more shows??

 

[Jeff Willis]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TVonDVDJunkie05
I agree with others that streaming sucks and physical media is the way to go and DVD/Blu Ray formats should be supported by as many as possible to ensure that they will be around for a long time. I am a little confused by this whole streaming/downloading issue- can someone clarify for me exactly what this entails?! Are we talking about going to a studio's website and searching for a show and watching it (either free of charge or for a fee) or are you referring to buying an episode or entire season of a show online and then downloading it to your computer's hard drive?! I am not a fan of either but if this model involves paying to watch an episode or full season then I would expect that in return I would have the ability to download and save a copy of the episode or episodes. I don't understand the appeal of going online and paying to watch an episode and not being able to download a copy of it?! The whole point of having a collection of TV shows is the joy of owning these series and watching them whenever you feel like it.


TV on DVD does appear to be on the decline but remember that a lot of series have been released on DVD over the years- I would say that there are more shows that have been released (and completed) then those that have not been released or are incomplete. I don't think physical media releases will die out completely, in the future most DVD releases will probably come from the independents (Shout! Factory, MPI, Timeless Media, Image Entertainment, etc.). The major studios, on the other hand, will probably move to this streaming business that Gary alluded to and will move away from physical media releases. This trend has already begun, here is the current state of affairs regarding classic TV releases from the big boys:


Parmount- Still releasing some classic series but not very many

Sony- No releases of classic series, have opted instead to sub-license out shows to independent companies

Fox- No releases of classic series (S5&6 of The Bob Newhart Show could potentially be the final DVD releases of a Classic series- if they are in fact released?!)

Universal- Still releasing a few classic series, many shows have been sub-licensed out to independent companies

Warner Bros.- Classic TV releases are few and far between, have now shifted to MOD releases for classic series via Warner Archive




While I prefer pressed discs to these MOD releases, I think an MOD release is better than no release at all. Having said that I am not impressed by Warner Archive thus far for two reasons:


1- The lack of releases, I would have expected them to open the vaults and start making more content available then they actually have. So far they have only released a pathetically small amount of older TV series. Are they still getting accustom to this new model of selling their content or is the lack of releases due to other factors such as restoration or music clearances for the shows they are looking at releasing?! I wonder what kind of sales they have had for the classic series they have released thus far- I know the Hanna-Barbera stuff has sold quite well but have the TV shows sold well?!


2- The pricing- For direct-to-consumer releases and considering that they own all of these TV series and films that they are putting out, the pricing is just too high IMO. The costs for MOD releases I would think are quite low compared to pressed DVD's that are sold in retail stores so as far as I am concerned greed is the main reason for the high prices. Unfortunately I think the high price points are going to be a turn off for many potential customers, especially more casual fans. They need to seriously rethink their strategy for this MOD stuff and lower the prices a bit. It appears as thought they are trying to maintain the same profit level as they have for retail releases but with these MOD releases there is no middle man, they are selling directly to the consumer and thus collecting all the profits.

Your post said it for me, particularly the pricing point. I've been buying TV/DVD sets for years and excepting for some of the CBS/P split-season sets, I don't spend WBA price amounts for a TV/DVD set. For the WBA proponents, that's fine for them. They don't represent all collector's buying guidelines though as my pov doesn't either.


Someone mentioned the point about not needing to pay list prices for WBA TV/DVD sets. I agree completely. However, I've never paid MSRP prices for any pressed TV/DVD set and I haven't seen WBA sales that include their existing TV/DVD sets. This includes the 10% discount for being on their mailing lists. Perhaps the sales that some have mentioned are either pre-order prices or day of release prices. I might have missed those but I and another friend check WBA's prices for TV/DVD sets that we're interested in regularly and we've not seen periodic sales such as those that are periodically offered by most of the pressed studios. I have seen the sales for their movie DVD's.


Your point #1 is also a major reason that I'm not impressed with WBA as yet. If the future proves more frequent older series WBA releases, then I'll revisit this opinion.


An earlier point about the TV/DVD mkt pov: I guess it depends on what era of shows one collects as to what one's opinions are, about this mkt slowing down. For me, the overall releases have been slowing down for a long time. If not for Shout and a couple other co's, we'd be seeing a significantly lower # of older series TV/DVD sets being released.

 

[Gary OS]

Fantastic post, Nick! You nailed all the issues for me in regards to my dissatisfaction with the WBA thus far. As far as what Vahan said, I think the point is that since this is a burn on demand (with the emphasis being "on demand") process from Warners, they really aren't out any money if no one buys. The only way they'd be losing money is if you factor in restorations, but I'd think the company would want to do that with their titles regardless for any future uses in this digital age. So the reality is that since they aren't manufacturing dvds ahead of time there really is no potential losses for them with this model. They are only going to make a set as it is ordered from customers. Frankly, they've hit on the perfect model - for them! Not at all the perfect model for us, though!


I'm not at all sure I buy the music clearance issues being the reason we haven't seen more b/w shows released. That seems like a very flimsy excuse as I just can't see every b/w show, even every b/w detective show, having these issues all over the place. I admit I'm not an expert on the old WB shows, but I find it hard to believe every episode of 77 Sunset Strip, or Bourbon Street Beat, had pop songs being sung in nightclubs that necessitate music clearance. I'm calling baloney on that one. Maybe a few here and there, but it surely can't be that prevalent. I just think they don't believe there's a big market for their b/w TV shows, and they've chosen instead to focus on color material.


Gary "hope we at least see the Ron Ely Tarzan series soon - that's one color series I'd buy quickly if offered" O.

 

[Jeff Willis]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary OS
Fantastic post, Nick! You nailed all the issues for me in regards to my dissatisfaction with the WBA thus far. As far as what Vahan said, I think the point is that since this is a burn on demand (with the emphasis being "on demand") process from Warners, they really aren't out any money if no one buys. The only way they'd be losing money is if you factor in restorations, but I'd think the company would want to do that with their titles regardless for any future uses in this digital age. So the reality is that since they aren't manufacturing dvds ahead of time there really is no potential losses for them with this model. They are only going to make a set as it is ordered from customers. Frankly, they've hit on the perfect model - for them! Not at all the perfect model for us, though!


I'm not at all sure I buy the music clearance issues being the reason we haven't seen more b/w shows released. That seems like a very flimsy excuse as I just can't see every b/w show, even every b/w detective show, having these issues all over the place. I admit I'm not an expert on the old WB shows, but I find it hard to believe every episode of 77 Sunset Strip, or Bourbon Street Beat, had pop songs being sung in nightclubs that necessitate music clearance. I'm calling baloney on that one. Maybe a few here and there, but it surely can't be that prevalent. I just think they don't believe there's a big market for their b/w TV shows, and they've chosen instead to focus on color material.


Gary "hope we at least see the Ron Ely Tarzan series soon - that's one color series I'd buy quickly if offered" O.

Ditto.

If WBA is such a great consumer-friendly program, where are their periodic TV/DVD sales like we've all seen from just about every other studio an online store? Are we to accept that, due to the MOD program, this poiht is moot? I don't agree with that. WBA would have gotten my $$'s several times over by now with TV/DVD purchases, if they'd offer occasional sales that include their older non-animated TV/DVD sets.

 

[Jack P]

"Lack of releases?" I'm sorry, but I'm not buying that argument. We've had by my count seven titles from the 60s-80s released on the program this year that are new to DVD and that's more impressive than any other studio did this year. Five of them were titles I didn't even buy but I still saw them as reflecting a commitment to keep rolling out the program when it can be done. As for thinking that the explanation on music clearance for the detective shows isn't valid, I think absent being an expert on what was played by bands in the background or on juke boxes, it's not fair to assume that's just a BS explanation from Warner because if it happened in so much as a handful of episodes we should know from past experience that can be enough to derail an entire season or an entire series release (anyone remember Shout and "Werewolf"?). The pace was slower than I would have liked to have seen in a few areas, but so far, everything the Warner Archive reps on Facebook have talked about in the past about their movie titles has come out and not once has there been anything done to suggest a promised TV title for the future *won't* come out. What I think also needs to be noted is that Warner is clearly doing some level of remastering on these titles since people have noted how the reissue of the "Man From Atlantis" pilot movie looked much better than their earlier release and I have also compared the "Girl From UNCLE" DVD release to my old boot set and can also see clear signs of remastering as well. These aren't being automatically dumped out on us from older masters which we've become accustomed to seeing in the past from other companies.

 

[Jeff Willis]

Sorry, I disagree. I've seen more releases from the other studios than I have from WBA regarding the older TV/DVD shows


I count 8 release that I've bought from the pressed studios with 12 yet to be bought, all released this year. If you're sayng that WBA's relases exceed any single pressed studio's releases since Jan 1 '11, you may be correct about that one. I don't have that data avaliable. Perhaps someone else can do a comparison there.

 

[Jack P]

I must have missed something because for titles *new* to DVD which is what I was talking about, no one has exceeded Warner for what constitutes my era of older TV on DVD *this year*. CBS/Paramount didn't introduce anything new to DVD (after finishing off "The Fugitive" all they did for me was wait forever to do another year of "Perry Mason" and "Gunsmoke"; "Rawhide" I have zero interest in) and I only counted two titles from Shout (Dennis The Menace, Police Story) with two more unstalled (Barney Miller, Kojak). And yes, I am going from January 1 of this year.

 

[Gary OS]

Jack, I'll reiterate what I've said previously. Almost every "difference of opinion" we have regarding Warners and Shout has to do with what each studio is, and isn't, releasing that interests us. You value The F.B.I. and Girl from U.N.C.L.E., while I value LITB, Dennis the Menace, and Father Knows Best. That's pretty much why we are seeing things differently, IMHO. And I'm still of the opinion that we should live and let live on the issue, so there are no hard feelings on my part in spite of my honest opinions on the WBA up to this point. I just want you to know it's not personal on my end. I'm just expressing my sincere opinions on the issue, just as Jeff has done.


As for the music clearance issues, I'll just say I'm not convinced of the reason Warners is giving any more than you are about some of Shout's reasons for delays or drops. Tit for tat there.


I'm not sure about your release comments, as I imagine Shout, Timeless, and CBS have put out more 50's-80's releases than WBA has this year - by a wide margin more than likely. The 'new to dvd' thing is a nice way of phrasing it to try and make your point though. But I've never thought about which studio put out the most new to dvd series in a given year as a measuring stick for how good a job they've done.


Gary "just my two cents" O.



P.S. EDIT: I had begun to compose my post before Jeff and Jack posted their latest comments. I'm with Jeff on this one.

 

[Jeff Willis]

Probably the reason is that you and I have opposite shows that we collect. For example, I collect Rawhide, etc.


Perry Mason, I guess once again, it's a different pov. It didn't seem like "forever" to me at all.


I think you are correct about WBA's # of older releases vs any other individual studio. I was comparing my future purchase list of releases that I will buy this year as well as the ones that I have bought since Jan 1.


In my situation, WBA isn't on the radar.

 

[Jack P]

Gary, "new to DVD" was the measuring stick I was going by because it seems to me that so many of us are often wondering about the market for *new* releases to DVD as our way of gauging the future of the hobby, and I think some perspective was needed in terms of just where have the most new titles come this year from the older eras of TV, because I almost get the impression that the expectation for Warner from some people was that they were going to release a new series title from the vault every week which wasn't something they ever promised. Those who are on them because a shorter-lived title like "The Lieutenant" or "Eleventh Hour" isn't out yet should at the same time remember that the chances of those eventually coming are going to be a lot greater than say, CBS/Paramount ever giving us "Longstreet" or any of the other studios giving us other one season titles in their vaults. We should keep track of which company is still going to be putting out more new titles to DVD in a given year to get a real fair sense of what's happening in the hobby, and that should include factoring in what a company is releasing that may not be one of our immediate favorites.

 

[Jeff Willis]

^ I agree with most of your points (surprise ). I'm not one that's ever expected WBA to release anything once a week though.

I also agree with you about some of the more obscure titles and the odds of them getting a WBA release.

I've also never been in the anti-WBA camp that's been on them because they're not releasing the lesser-known titles.


Pricing, different story. If they'd include their older TV/DVD sets in their periodic sales, that would impress me and I'd buy some of their tv/dvd sets. I suppose that I've bought sets at ~40-60% off everyday pricing elsewhere too long to accept WBA's price structuring. They do a good job though, on the movie side of things.


I've also posted on the std movie board, "kudos" to WBA when they've sale-priced some nice movie bundle sets. I picked up their "Tarzan (RKO 'Barker' years) set that came in at about $11-12 per movie.

Regarding the ongoing pro/anti WBA pov's, I will say that it's a two-way street. There's just as much, shall we say, opinion-influenced posts that originate from the "pro" camp as does the "anti" camp. Case in point was a recent comment from what appeared to be a "pro" WBA customer that told those of us that differed in our pov, to "get another hobby" if we didn't like WBA's pricing structures. I didn't think that was appropriate and you won't see my posts contain such a comment.


I don't fall into the hard-line anti WBA camp though, as I've bought a few WBA movies. No TV/DVdD sets as yet but I'm hoping for a sale that will include their TV/DVD products.

 

[Gary OS]

Jack, I'll just make two counter-points:


1) The fact that Warners is putting out many new series this year serves to demonstrate how far behind they were in comparison to CBS/P in years past. They sat on so many titles that now they've got the distinct advantage of having more to put out than everyone else. Plus, they now get to milk us for so much more money than we would have paid had they been releasing these older titles on pressed dvds a few years ago.


2) It's not so much which studio is putting out the most titles, as it is which studio is putting out the most titles of interest to me (versus you, and everyone else). To be really blunt, Warners doesn't have nearly as many titles I'm interested in as CBS does. But perhaps with you, its the other way around. And that's great. To each his own. That's why at the end of the day even though I personally don't have enough interest in most of what WBA offers to tempt me to pay the higher prices, I'm always glad for other fans like you. I hope everyone gets everything they want from every studio. That's what makes all of us happy.


Gary "good discussion" O.

 

[Jeff Willis]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary OS
Jack, I'll just make two counter-points:


1) The fact that Warners is putting out many new series this year serves to demonstrate how far behind they were in comparison to CBS/P in years past. They sat on so many titles that now they've got the distinct advantage of having more to put out than everyone else. Plus, they now get to milk us for so much more money than we would have paid had they been releasing these older titles on pressed dvds a few years ago.


2) It's not so much which studio is putting out the most titles, as it is which studio is putting out the most titles of interest to me (versus you, and everyone else). To be really blunt, Warners doesn't have nearly as many titles I'm interested in as CBS does. But perhaps with you, its the other way around. And that's great. To each his own. That's why at the end of the day even though I personally don't have enough interest in most of what WBA offers to tempt me to pay the higher prices, I'm always glad for other fans like you. I hope everyone gets everything they want from every studio. That's what makes all of us happy.

Gary "good discussion" O.

Exactly. Jack will never read a post from me that reads "Boo, FBI got released while my grail show did not." That's not going to happen as I'm glad Jack got the FBI from WBA.

#2 is the same reason that I don't routinely give out the accolades to WBA. That might change in the future.

 

[TVonDVDJunkie05]

and I only counted two titles from Shout (Dennis The Menace, Police Story)

You forgot Webster, another new release this year.

Gary, "new to DVD" was the measuring stick I was going by because it seems to me that so many of us are often wondering about the market for *new* releases to DVD as our way of gauging the future of the hobby

As I mentioned in my previous post, the number of released series (from all eras) outweights the number of unreleased or at least it appears that way to me?! With that in mind, I don't think you should outright dismiss stalled series in your gauging of the future of TV on DVD. Some series (Kojak) have not had a release in many years so I think the fact someone decided to pick up this title and take a shot at releasing additional seasons should count for something. To me it says that they are still interested in releasing stuff and are looking at what sells and sometimes a previously released show that stalled out might do better than a show that has never been released on DVD before.

"Lack of releases?" I'm sorry, but I'm not buying that argument. We've had by my count seven titles from the 60s-80s released on the program this year that are new to DVD

So seven titles for a direct-to-consumer program is impressive for you?! Sorry but for me its not very impressive but rather a pathetically small amount. As I mentioned before they own the shows and they own the distribution method (direct sale via their website) so there is no reason why they cannot make more series available for sale. Also, there is no real substantial cost here as they only make the DVD when someone places an order for one. They should have released between 10-20 titles (not just new ones) for me to consider this a successful venture. Is there some reason they can't make more than one season of a show available, since sales are not an issue here like they are for pressed DVD's released through retail outlets?!


I am still waiting to see the following released:

Alice

Eight is Enough

Spenser: For Hire


More seasons of the following:


CHiPs

Night Court

Perfect Strangers

Welcome Back, Kotter

 

[Jack P]

Point one I agree with in that yes, Warner dragged their feet for years opening their vaults. They were the worst offender in that regard though other studios for several years gave them a run for the money. However, the one advantage in it waiting this long and then seeing them go this Archive program is that we have seen the likelihood of releases with completed runs on DVD maximized for the long-haul IMO. The studios who were doing better have left us with a lot of stalled material that is never apt to be finished and they of course don't have an MOD program of their own to provide backup or if they're CBS/Paramount they don't believe in licensing a title that stalled on their end. Where we're also in disagreement is the real value of pressed DVD releases to DVD-R. Honestly, there's not much of a meaningful difference for me. Yes, I know there was that scare earlier this year about Warner Archive discs going bad after a while but I have found that of many movie purchases only one was bad, and also they have stepped up to dual layered discs now for these releases which makes them more convenient than the MGM DVD-Rs were. All I can say is that the worst headaches I ever got in TV on DVD releases came from pressed DVD-18s from Universal and nothing's ever happened from Warner to make me think like I'm revisiting those days. I'm also unconvinced their particular price scale is exceptionally out of line. It's lower than the MGM ones were and I think all we're seeing is the fact that we have few outlets to get them at the deep discount rates we're used to seeing. But then again, most of these titles do turn up from Amazon vendors for a fairly lower rate eventually that are in line with any CBS/Paramount release marked down by $10 so I don't see this as a case of them "milking us for more" or that there isn't any way to get them at a lower price.

 

[derosa]

  I am still waiting to see the following released: 

Alice

Eight is Enough

Spenser: For Hire

 

More seasons of the following:

 

CHiPs

Night Court

Perfect Strangers

Welcome Back, Kotter

i'd buy all of those!

 

[Ethan Riley]

Lively debate. But I don't see any reason to take WB to task for not releasing enough series in the past, if they're doing so now. The reason the sets are so expensive is because they're produced for a niche market (us) and they cannot employ big-box discount price points, since we're not buying them at Wal-Mart. Yes, I too think they're too expensive, but the price points are not--I think--out of line with realistic economics in terms of producing this sort of thing and not selling it to the masses. I want far more of them than I have; maybe I can buy some used at amazon or wherever. I don't know. But I'll still support their efforts in every way.

 

[westumulka]

The reason the sets are so expensive is because they're produced for a niche market (us) and they cannot employ big-box discount price points, since we're not buying them at Wal-Mart. Yes, I too think they're too expensive, but the price points are not--I think--out of line with realistic economics in terms of producing this sort of thing and not selling it to the masses. I want far more of them than I have; maybe I can buy some used at amazon or wherever. I don't know. But I'll still support their efforts in every way.

It's also worth bearing in mind that the recommended price for some of the latest WB shows on pressed discs ('Two and a Half Men' and 'Big Bang Theory' being two recent examples) have a retail price of almost $45 - compare that to almost $40 for something like 'The Courtship of Eddie's Father' from the WA. Of course (hopefully) no one pays the full price for those sets.

 

[Stephen Wight]

What makes you think they're not selling? Those shows are still coming out, as of just a couple months ago. Dynasty season 6 is already available in the UK, and an American release usually follows. One thing to keep in mind is that American soap opera-type shows are at least twice as popular in Europe as they are in their country of origin. That's why Germany gets American daytime soaps on dvd and we do not. If Paramount goes through the trouble to remaster Dynasty for European release, it offsets the costs (a little) for an eventual US release. Don't go by the sales rankings of amazon.com--these shows have huge international appeal (even though most Americans think they're dumb!)

Yeah,I know more Dynasty was released over the Summer. I based my question on the fact that there was a two year gap between the releases of Melrose Place and,I believe,there was also a similar sized gap between the releases for Dynasty,as well. The only conclusion I could come to for why that was is because they weren't selling. If I'm wrong,I stand corrected.