2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

With TDK and Harry Potter VI, WB is looking at having a helluva good year. Here is a list of their planned '08 releases...

-"10,000 B.C." (March)
-"Body of Lies" (October)
-"The Bucket List" (January)
-"The Dark Knight" (July)
-"Fool's Gold" (February)
-"Get Smart" (June)
-"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" (November)
-"Nights in Rodanthe" (September)
-"One Missed Call" (January)
-"RockNRolla" (October)
-"Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2" (August)
-"Speed Racer" (May)

Some of the "suits" at the studio feel that this could be the biggest year WB has ever had at the box office. With TDK expected to be every bit as big as 'Begins' was (if not bigger), on top of Harry Potter ending up earning nearly $1 billion worldwide, the studio execs should be confident.

On that list, I think "Speed Racer", "Get Smart", and "Body of Lies" have a lot of potential. "10,000 B.C." and "Fool's Gold" could go either way, while "The Bucket List" and 'Sisterhood 2' should pull in decent-sized audiences.

Not much is expected from "One Missed Call". The jury is out on what to expect from "RockNRolla", while many in the studio hope "Nights in Rodanthe" will perform similar to "The Lake House" ($52.3 million).

While WB may not end up being the top studio earner of the year (both Disney and Paramount also have a lot to feel confident about), the studio looks to have put together a solid lineup for moviegoers in '08. We'll see what happens.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

You want a prediction for TDK...simple.

Take the $205M gross...adjust for inflation. Multiply by 1.05 - that's the low end, IMO. It will gross more. Multiply the inflation adjusted BB total by 1.3 - that's the high end (about a 60M boost). In between is the reality. Probably closer to 1.1x, with very strong DVD and IMAX sales. VERY strong IMAX sales, even.

I think almost every BB fan has been realistic about that.

 

[JediFonger]

what do you think will top January's box office?

IMDb - Now Playing in the U.S.

 

[TerryRL]

Unless something shocking happens, "Cloverfield" looks like the the movie that will be the biggest hit of January. Also expect strong showings from "Rambo", "27 Dresses", "Be Kind Rewind", "The Bucket List", "Untraceable", "Meet the Spartans", and "The Orphanage".

 

[Jose Martinez]

I cringed when I saw the trailer for Meet The Spartans. It's a JSP movie for sure.

 

[TerryRL]

The month of January hasn't produced a $100 million-plus domestic performer since 2002. Two films pulled it off that year, they were "A Beautiful Mind" and "Black Hawk Down". Both of those films were December holdovers (albeit in very limited release) from 2001 that went wide in January.

The last time a non-holdover from December earned more than $100 million after opening in January was the 1997 Special Edition release of "Star Wars". Historically, three of the four January releases that earned more than $100 million were December holdovers ("Traffic", "A Beautiful Mind", and "Black Hawk Down").

Some believe that "Cloverfield" has generated enough heat to earn that kind of coin. I'd be surprised if it pulled in that much, but you never know.

 

[Greg Layton]

I'm going to say that Cloverfield will be first and Rambo will be a closer second than people think. It's also worth noting that I will not be seeing Teeth... the very idea scares the hell out of me.

 

[Holadem]

Why does the TDK's gross seem so terribly important?!

--
H

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Holadem,
It's probably the most important topic on the planet.

I don't know either, and I feel bad feeding it. I'll stop now...I promise

 

[Malcolm R]

I don't believe it either. Who even knows about this film other than the Abrams groupies and a few of us Internet geeks?

Seems like another "Snakes on a Plane" to me.

 

[JediFonger]

the "few" isn't that few anymore, it's a huge portion of the box office $

 

[TerryRL]

"Cloverfield" could very well be another "Snakes on a Plane", but I think (right now anyway) that its safe to assume it won't be. I just don't see it being the 'Blair Witch'-like blockbuster that some think it'll be.

Again, I could be way off and it ends up being the year's first $100 million performer.

 

[JediFonger]

i'm going to say that it does. the trailers are captivating enough.

 

[TerryRL]

Even if "Cloverfield" doesn't end up topping the century mark, I am anticipating a big opening weekend for it. Paramount will have no problem getting people in theaters that first weekend. Whether or not the movie produces repeat viewing is the real question.

 

[JediFonger]

i can't remember what mi3 made, did it go past 100/200 mil? that's fairly accurate assessment of cloverfield. some will like JJ Abrams, some won't.

 

[Malcolm R]

As I recall, it topped out around $130M. But I think the relatively low gross was attributed to Tom Cruise's recent weirdness rather than anything to do with Abrams.

I actually thought it was the best film of the franchise once I caught it on DVD.

 

[TerryRL]

M:I-III earned $134.0 million domestically and $397.85 million worldwide. Counting marketing expenses, the film cost Paramount more than $200 million, with a large chunk of that going to Tom Cruise ($25 million plus a huge piece of the backend).

Many (myself included) regard the third flick as the best of the M:I franchise, but all the weirdness surrounding Cruise at the time of the movie's release might have hurt it at the box office. "Valkyrie" will go a long way in determining if M:I-III and "Lions for Lambs" were only flukes and not a sign that Cruise's midas touch at the box office is waning.

 

[TerryRL]

Looks like the first weekend of '08 is going to deliver big numbers for the studios. According to the early estimates, 'National Treasure' will become the first movie since "Disturbia" to reign as the top earning flick for three consecutive weekends. The sequel earned about $6 million yesterday, while "One Missed Call" got off to a surprisingly potent start of more than $5 million.

The indie hit "Juno" officially went wide and also pulled in about $5 million yesterday. This one is not only looks to be well on its way to becoming Fox Searchlight's biggest hit (eventually topping the $71.5 million haul of "Sideways"), but is also expected to end up passing the $100 million plateau thanks to all the positive buzz it has generated.

"I Am Legend" continues to cruise toward the $250 million mark, while "Alvin & the Chipmunks" is on course to top out at more than $200 mil. NS2, 'Alvin', "Juno", "One Missed Call", and 'Legend' will be the weekend's top five flicks.

Thanks to the strong showing by the holdovers, as well as the better-than-expected start of "One Missed Call", the top twelve movies look to earn in the neighborhood of $115-$120 million, thus giving '08 the second best first-weekend start in history. This weekend would trail only the first frame of '04, which took in $120.2 million from its top twelve flicks.

With "Cloverfield" and "Rambo" opening the last two weeks of the month, the industry is cautiously optimistic that January '08 will end up pocketing the biggest first-month haul ever (passing the $777.3 million take of January '06).

We'll see what happens.

 

[Greg Layton]

A generic horror film that's currently earning a 0% on Rotten Tomatoes is on track for a $15 million + opening weekend? Rescue Dawn barely eclipsed $5 million during its entire run in theaters. Into the Wild and Waitress both struggled to get past the $15 million mark during their their runs. As Chuck Berry said long ago... "'C'est la vie,' say the old folks, it goes to show you never can tell."

 

[Chris]

I admit, everytime I see the commercials for "One Missed Call" I laugh.. with punchlines like:

"That's not my ringtone!"
"It went straight to voicemail!"

Yeesh...