2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Edwin-S]

Valkyrie looks like it could be a pretty decent movie, regardless of Tom Cruise's bizarre beliefs. I think it could do well, but I agree that it is highly doubtful that it would reach blockbuster status.

 

[GuruAskew]

If the less-than-stellar box-office performance of the last "Batman" movie is any indication I don't think Indy has much to worry about.

Also, what is so impressive about that heist sequence?

It's very by-the-numbers, it really offers nothing new that hasn't been done in every single heist scene that's ever been done.

 

[Charles LaSalle]

I agree

 

[Paul_Scott]

(at the last two posts)

 

[GuruAskew]

"The Last Crusade" outgrossed "Begins" and that's without even taking inflation into account.

"The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" also has the benefit of 19 years of anticipation vs. the 3 years that "The Dark Knight" has.

I think the big reason why "Batman Begins" didn't exactly set the box office ablaze is that the marketing was all aimed at people that were already sold on the movie and they're probably even doing that more with this movie.

The Batman fans on the internet are a very vocal group but that doesn't translate to a big success in reality (which has been proven time and time again thanks to things like "Snakes on a Plane" and "Grindhouse"), at least not in the league of what previous "Batman" movies and other similar franchises like "Spider-Man" and "X-Men" did.

If you look at all the advertising for "The Dark Knight" through the eyes of your more casual moviegoer it really doesn't seem all that exciting. I don't think most audiences are really clamoring to see the Joker on the big screen again and to those people a poster of his graffiti or a shot of him walking down the street from the back is just going to leave them scratching their heads.

 

[Charles LaSalle]

I couldn't have said it better myself. That's why I'm saying that TDK won't make more than $200 mill domestically.

 

[Ruz-El]

Are Charles and Bill the same person? It's like and echo! XD


What your not taking into account is, Indy 4 feels 20 years too late and in those years, Harrison Ford has completly proven himself to be great at picking crap movies. No one even remembers his last 3 movies at the box office, and outside of the video game/ comic book nerds, the Indy brand is pretty much out of the public radar. Batman has never gone away. People are still watching all the time on TV.

 

[DavidPla]

And Batman89 outgrossed "Last Crusade".. so what's your point?

Not to get into an Indiana Jones vs. Batman debate because I'm sure Indiana Jones will do amazing this summer as well but... give credit where credit is due... Batman Begins was ALL about legs. Meaning that its opening weekend might've been the regular Batman fans but its following weekends brought in new audiences. As well as its DVD sales. Case in point the best way to look at this is "X-Men" and "X2". The first opened to 54 M and went on to gross 156 M and because of that stellar word of mouth, the second opened to 85 M and went on to gross 215 M. The same will be for "The Dark Knight".. it will only expand on what "Batman Begins" brought in.. simple as that!

 

[Paul_Scott]

The reason Begins opened the way it did, was the same reason Spider-man 3 opened the way it did. Peoples pre-perceptions of the latest installment in a franchise are based on how entertaining the last movie was.

I think both IJ and TDK are going to perform under expectations, because (especially in the case of TDK) expectations are starting to go thru the roof and if they keep on that trajectory, will eventually asphyxiate in the ether and threaten to fall back to earth with a painful thud. I see IJ faring even worse, since the last film was so derivative and this one could likely be even hoakier (with the son Shia angle and the re-hashing of the Ark motif, all with a long in the tooth HF and the done to death dolly up for a close up while the music swells Spielberg shots).

I think if Hulk is a good popcorn movie this time (as opposed to being just a good semi-intelligent movie), then Universal will benefit enormously if they soft peddle it. It would have the opportunity to seemingly come from nowhere and capture kids imaginations in a way the previous one failed to.

I don't have faith that Iron Man has the budget behind it for a large enough amount of spectacular set pieces. The vibe I get is this is another X-men. A decent expositional chapter that paves the way for a more bombastic follow-up. Hannah Montana is going to make almost as much I would bet.

As far as the Mummy goes- the original film was filling the retro serial adventure void left in the absence of IJ. If the real deal comes out 3 months eariler and is viewed as a "boy you really can't go home again, can you" then what chance does this film have? That and the fact that the previous film was viewed as mostly a big joke even by the franchises fans.

 

[TerryRL]

'Last Crusade' pulled in $197.2 million in '89 ($340.2 million today).

'Begins' earned $205.3 million in '05 ($219.7 million today).

As much as I'm anticipating TDK, most believe that Indy IV will likely be the bigger box office hit between the two. As I've said before, Indy IV could end up being the biggest domestic performer of '08, while Harry Potter 6 will most likely be the biggest worldwide hit of the year.

I really don't get this whole Indy vs. Batman thing because both movies are poised to be huge blockbusters next summer. Indy IV will probably end up being the biggest (non-inflation adjusted) hit of the franchise, while I have no doubt that TDK will end up being a bigger hit than 'Begins' was. I wouldn't be at all surprised if TDK also ends up being the best performer (non-inflation adjusted) of its respective franchise.

These two movies should prove to be gigantic at the box office.

 

[Ruz-El]

Wait, what about Mummy?

 

[DavidPla]

Spielberg and Batman (and John Malkovich) get along! Why can't we?

 

[GuruAskew]

But "Batman Begins" just wasn't a "blockbuster". It was a solid hit but it certainly didn't live up to previous "Batman" movies inflation-wise. When dealing with a current movie factoring inflation into the equation can only hurt it and this is a series where even without inflation "Begins" ranks towards the bottom, and I just can't see "The Dark Knight" all of a sudden getting into "Batman" '89 and "Batman Forever" territory at the box office, I just don't think that's a reasonable expectation.

 

[Paul_Scott]

1984 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Sensory Overload were bested by a film that came out of nowhere- Ghostbusters.
1989 Ghostbusters 2 was picked by a lot of media to be the big grosser because...well, uh...because the first movie was so big.
Who the hell even remembers that movie was released that summer anymore?

These things will all open huge, but they have to actually be good to go beyond that. Rocky Balboa suprised the hell out of me by being as wise and truthful about its character (after a long passage of time). I will be floored if IJ is more substantial in this department than just a collection of "oo I'm rusty and slow now" jokes coupled with some very typically shallow and facile Speilberg 'family hour' schmaltz. I just don't see room for real insight into that family of characters in what is going to likely be another heavily plotty, video-game level by level, adventure/quest. Lucas wants to sell ancilliary crap. Thats likely the reason so many drafts were turned down- not because they had too little character development- but because he needed to squeeze another video game level out of the story.

 

[Nick Martin]

_

 

[TerryRL]

Forgive me Bill, but I'm a little confused. What is your overall point? Is it that TDK won't be as big a hit as Indy IV? Or that TDK will only do "decent" numbers as opposed to blockbuster figures?

 

[Paul_Scott]

In this case I would expect Batman. Reason being the story is a direct continuation of one that is 1) fresh and contemporary in peoples minds and 2) viewed as a story that was exceptionally well told.

TDK is more like Battlestar Galactica to IJs Star Trek. Thats not commenting on the popularity or quality of the respective franchises, merely that one is a serial and that structure makes you crave a follow up as soon as you get done watching the current one. Ij is complete unto itself and at this point, it looks like a 'tacked on' sequel. Was anyone really wanting or craving a follow-up Ark adventure? Frankly I think using the Ark as a plot point just sullies the beauty of originals ending.

 

[GuruAskew]

Well, both.

Based on "Batman Begins" I don't really see "The Dark Knight" being in any position to challenge Indy at the box office.

I'm sure a lot of people will like it and I'm sure it will be pretty good like the last one but I don't see it making a significant dent in the 2008 box-office. It has a lot of competition and by year's end I don't believe "The Dark Knight" will will emerge as one of the most successful films of the year.

I pretty much expect it to perform just like the last one did.

 

[TerryRL]

I do agree that TDK won't make as much as Indy IV, but I do think it'll end up being one of the bigger hits of the year. Anything is possible, but I really think TDK will earn more than BB did.

Still, at the end of the day the most important thing is if both movies are good.

 

[MatthewLouwrens]

HA!