2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[BrettGallman]

I think Transformers is going to do some big bank. I'd be surprised if it doesn't break $200 million because it has the advantage of appealing across two generations: those who watched the originals in the '80s and all the kids still into the franchise these days.

 

[Adam_S]

I think the number 285 is reasonable for Harry Potter because this film has a really solid third act/ending, unlike the Third film/book which has an almost comically insane convoluted ending (and I love the books). The massive (and probably very exciting) battle that ends the film, along with the ominous tones of the prophecy reveal should help kick some box office butt. It's much, much easier to understand the ending of order of the phoenix than Prisoner of Azkaban or Goblet of Fire. It's much more straightforward in the end, like the first two films.

 

[TerryRL]

The 'Harry Potter' franchise is also poised to become the biggest film series in history in '07. The four films have earned a worldwide total of $3.53 billion and if 'The Order of Phoenix' earns anything over $750 million globally, it will pass the $4.24 billion mark of the James Bond franchise, which recently took the top spot from the 'Star Wars' flicks ($4.21 billion) thanks to the nearly $500 million performance of "Casino Royale".

Of the four previous 'Potter' flicks, the least successful one was 'The Prisoner of Azkaban' and that one still pulled in nearly $790 million. WB is predicting that by the time the seventh film ('The Deathly Hallows' which is tentatively set for a 2010 launch) has concluded its theatrical run, the 'Harry Potter' franchise will have earned more than $6 billion worldwide at the box office.

In terms of overall ticket sales, the HP series is well behind the massive numbers achieved by the SW and 007 franchises, but when its all said and done, 'Harry Potter' is going to be sitting on the throne as the biggest box office performing franchise the industry has ever seen.

 

[Adam_S]

how do the ticket sales numbers stack up for the various top selling franchises?

 

[TerryRL]

International ticket sales have been notoriously tough to track over the decades since most territories only post box office figures rather than theater admissions. These are domestic figures.

RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF TICKETS SOLD

STAR WARS
6 films
599 million admissions

JAMES BOND
21 films
500 million admissions (estimated)

STAR TREK
10 films
202 million admissions

INDIANA JONES
3 films
200 million admissions

BATMAN
5 films
194 million admissions

HARRY POTTER
4 films
186 million admissions

THE LORD OF THE RINGS
3 films
177 million admissions

JURASSIC PARK
3 films
160 million admissions

SUPERMAN
5 films
148 million admissions

SPIDER-MAN
2 films
130 million admissions

SHREK
2 films
125 million admissions

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
2 FILMS
115 million admissions

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE
3 films
101 million admissions

X-MEN
3 films
100 million admissions

RANKED BY TICKET-SALES-PER-FILM AVERAGE

STAR WARS
99.8 million

INDIANA JONES
66.7 million

SPIDER-MAN
65.0 million

SHREK
62.5 million

THE LORD OF THE RINGS
59.0 million

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
57.5 million

JURASSIC PARK
53.3 million

HARRY POTTER
46.5 million

BATMAN
38.8 million

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE
33.7 million

X-MEN
33.3 million

SUPERMAN
29.6 million

JAMES BOND
23.8 million

STAR TREK
20.2 million

 

[Tim Glover]

Great data Terry! You're palm pilot must hate you

 

[TerryRL]

Let's just say that its not too happy with me right now.

 

[MatthewLouwrens]

I disagree as well. I think it could do really well.

To be honest, I never saw Bruce Almighty in cinema - Jim Carrey being Jim Carrey just put me off. When I did see it on video, I do admit that it was actually pretty good, so I am interested in a new film if it maintains that level.

Now, the film does have a problem in the lack of Jim Carrey for the sequel - they've tried that twice before (Son of the Mask, and Dumber & Dumberer) and it hasn't worked out well. But those films did not have Steve Carrell, who is really emerging as the next big star - stealing both the original Bruce Almighty and Anchorman, and having a genuine box-office hit in 40-Year-Old Virgin as well as establishing his comic presence weekly in The Office. So I definitely think Steve Carrell has the appeal to make this one into a huge hit.

Add to that the fact that the idea (Evan building an ark) is sufficiently removed from the first film that it's not just a remake, but it still makes absolute sense in that world.

Plus it's got a great trailer - okay, the shaving bit comes from The Santa Clause (I haven't even seen that film, and I recognised it) - but other than that, I think it's a really good funny trailer - "Let it all out, son. It's the beginning of wisdom" cracks me up every time. A friend of mine saw the trailer in cinema, came home, downloaded it, and is showing it to everyone he can, and he's now built up quite a nice little group of people keen to see it.

So, to be honest, I think Evan Almighty has the potential to do pretty well. Now they just need to ensure that the film is funny.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Night at the Museum" $6.9 million ($147.0 million) 48% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "The Pursuit of Happyness" $4.1 million ($115.2 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Children of Men" $3.4 million ($5.0 million) 1837% Friday-to-Friday increase
#4 "Freedom Writers" $3.3 million
#5 "Dreamgirls" $2.5 million ($48.2 million) 48% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Happily N'Ever After" $2.0 million
#7 "The Good Shepard" $1.99 million ($43.9 million) 45% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Rocky Balboa" $1.94 million ($56.5 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Charlotte's Web" $1.8 million ($62.2 million) 60% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "We Are Marshall" $1.7 million ($31.9 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday drop

"Night at the Museum" will become the third 2006 release to hold the top spot for three weeks, joining Pirates 2 and "Happy Feet". The Fox release will pass the $150 million mark today. Sony's "The Pursuit of Happyness" continues to hold steady at #2 as it will vault past the $120 million plateau on Sunday. Universal's "Children of Men" went wide this weekend and found itself in the #3 slot. Paramount's "Freedom Writers" debuted at fourth, and "Dreamgirls" rounds out the top five as it continues to show solid numbers while still playing at only 852 locations. New Line's "Code Name: The Cleaner" (which the studio had high hopes for) earned only $1.4 million yesterday as it opened in the #11 position.

 

[DavidPla]

Thanks for the update Terry.


See... this is when I wanna know what the studios are smokin!

 

[TerryRL]

Well, when a studio exec casts someone who is believed to be "hot" or on the verge of being a "breakout star", they attach sometimes unrealistic expectations with said someone's film. Its a gamble that sometimes pays off big and other times an exec will lose his/her job over it. Happens all the time.

 

[Tim Glover]

Man, Night at the Museum is doing rather well. Kind of thought it might bomb out. Shows you what I know ...

Terry, how is Rocky Balboa performing in terms of expectations and it's "legs"? Thanks!

 

[TerryRL]

'Rocky' is performing well ahead of industry expectations and has so far showed decent enough legs. It has already passed the $49 million performance of the universally panned "Rocky V" and looks headed for a final domestic haul of about $70 million. Far from the big hits that the original four movies were, but still a solid performer.

At a cost of only $24 million, the movie will end up being a very profitable hit for Sony, which owns MGM. Most thought the movie would earn $30-$35 mil tops, but thanks to the early reviews (which were much stronger than anyone anticipated), the movie got out of the gates with a solid start and has had good, but not spectacular, legs.

Since 1993, star (as well as writer and director) Sylvester Stallone has only had six solid performers out of his last 14 movies. 1993's "Cliffhanger" ($84 million), 1993's "Demolition Man" ($58 million), 1994's "The Specialist" ($57.3 million), his voice-work in 1998's "Antz" ($90.7 million), a supporting role in "Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over" ($111.7 million) and now the sixth 'Rocky' flick.

"Rocky Balboa" also earned Stallone some of the strongest reviews as an actor he's ever had. Out of the four decades Stallone has been involved in film-making, the best reviews he's received were for the original "Rocky" flick in 1976, "Cop Land" ($44.8 million) from 1997, and now "Rocky Balboa".

Thanks to the success of Rocky 6, the studio is now much more confident in the 2008 return of John Rambo in "Rambo IV: Pearl of the Cobra". That summer will also feature the return of Indiana Jones to theaters. Ironically, another 1980s action icon who is in his 60s.

 

[Tim Glover]

Thanks Terry ...Everyone I've talked to has been surprised as I was how effective Rocky Balboa is. It could be the first Blu-Ray title I would buy and I don't have a Blu Ray player.

 

[TerryRL]

No problem Tim. I'm here to help.

I was really surprised by how well done Rocky 6 was. I was afraid it was going to be as bad as the previous flick going in. I was pleasantly surprised that it wasn't. Looks like "Rocky V" will turn out to be the only real turd of the franchise.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Night at the Museum" $24.0 million ($164.1 million) -35%
#2 "The Pursuit of Happyness" $12.0 million ($124.2 million) -33%
#3 "Children of Men" $10.3 million ($11.9 million) +1,955%
#4 "Freedom Writers" $9.7 million
#5 "Dreamgirls" $8.8 million ($54.5 million) -37%
#6 "Happily N'Ever After" $6.8 million
#7 "Charlotte's Web" $6.6 million ($66.9 million) -43%
#8 "The Good Shepard" $6.5 million ($48.4 million) -40%
#9 "Rocky Balboa" $6.3 million ($60.9 million) -41%
#10 "We Are Marshall" $5.1 million ($35.4 million) -36%

The first weekend of the new year yielded solid results as business was nearly identical to that of last year (when "Hostel" opened at #1), as well as being 4% better than the opening frame of 2005 (when "Meet the Fockers" spent its third week as the nation's top earning film).

Like with the first weekend of 2005, '07 begins the year with a film starring Ben Stiller spending its third week at #1 as Fox's "Night at the Museum" easily led the field. The flick becomes the third release of '06 to spend three weeks in the top spot (joining Pirates 2 and "Happy Feet"), as it lost only 35% of its business from last weekend. The FX spectacular has so far tallied $164 million and clearly looks headed for a final mark of more than $200 million, giving the studio its third double-century performer in the last two years (joining 'Revenge of the Sith' and X3).

Sony's "The Pursuit of Happyness" once again was the second most popular movie of the top ten. The over-achieving film saw only a 33% dip in business and has so far tallied a stellar $124 million. This one should flirt with a final mark in the neighborhood of $150 million, which is well past what Sony thought the film would earn. If that does turn out to be the case, it would be the fifth $150 million-plus performer of star Will Smith's career out of the ten films he's headlined past the century mark.

Universal's "Children of Men" debuted in the top ten this weekend at third as it saw a massive 1,955% increase in business. The sci-fi/drama expanded from 16 theaters to 1,209 locations this weekend, giving it a stellar average of $8,515 (which was the second best of the top ten). The film cost a little over $75 million to make and this was definitely a good start. With solid legs (as well as strong international grosses), this one could turn out to be a solid hit for Universal.

Paramount's "Freedom Writers" opened in the fifth position as it pulled in $9.7 million. The drama, which was budgeted at only $21 million, earned the third best per-theater average of the top ten with its $7,136 mark from a very modest 1,360 locations. The film, which stars two-time Best Actress Oscar-winner Hilary Swank, was one of only two '07 releases to finish in the top ten amidst all the holdovers. The studio is expecting this one to have a solid run in theaters and turn into a profitable hit for them, especially when it hits DVD next Spring.

DreamWorks/Paramount's "Dreamgirls" continues to do strong business while still playing in only 852 locations. The Oscar-hopeful's fantastic per-theater average of $10,357 was once again the best of the top ten. The film has so far tallied more than $54 million and with Oscar season in full swing, a final mark of more than $100 million looks very likely.

Lionsgate's "Happily N'Ever After" debuted in sixth place with a softer-than-expected earning of less than $7 million. The CG animated flick's per-theater average of $2,855 from its 2,381 locations disappointed many at the studio. LGF execs are hoping this one has legs, but are comforted by the fact that the movie will probably yield stronger results on home video.

Paramount's "Charlotte's Web" has now earned just under $67 million. Universal's "The Good Shepard" continues to draw stronger-than-expected business as it closes in on the $50 million mark. MGM/Sony's "Rocky Balboa" looks on course to end its run in the neighborhood of $70-$80 million. WB's "We Are Marshall" rounds out the top ten as it has now tallied a disappointing $25 million. New Line's "Code Name: The Cleaner" debuted in the 12th spot and earned $4.6 million. The film's less-than-thrilling average of $2,649 from its 1,736 was not what the studio was hoping for. Expect this one to fade pretty fast. Even with a budget of only $20 million, New Line will have a tough time recovering their losses.

Fox's "Eragon" left the top ten this week as it has now pulled in close to $67 million. The $100 million-plus budgeted flick should close its doors with between $75-$80 million in the bank. Still, Fox can't be too disappointed as the movie has brought in more than $180 million worldwide (Fox execs expect the movie to tally well beyond $200 million globally). Based on its strong showing in foreign markets, and the real possibility of this being a big hit on home video, Fox may end up green-lighting the next movie ("Eragon" is the first of a hoped for trilogy for the studio).

Sony's "The Holiday" is closing in on $60 million. Sony's "Casino Royale" is now just days away from passing the $161 domestic haul of "Die Another Day" to become the biggest Bond ever (it already ranks as the biggest worldwide performer of the franchise). The film is now sitting on a $159.9 million domestic tally.

In limited play, Fox Searchlight's "Notes on a Scandal" expanded to 71 more theaters, bringing its total to 93, and earned a solid $1.1 million. The film, which is expected to grab Oscar nods for past winners Dame Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett, earned a per-theater average of $11,827. Miramax's Oscar-hopeful "The Queen" has now tallied close to $30 million and remains in only 323 theaters nationwide.

Next weekend will see MGM's "Arthur and the Invisibles", Disney's "Primeval", Sony's "Stomp the Yard", and Universal's "Alpha Dog" all hit theaters. Right now, the general consensus is that the battle for #1 will come down between the CG animated 'Arthur' and the horror flick "Primeval". Next weekend will also see "Dreamgirls" finally go into wide release as it expands to 1,800 theaters.

 

[Tim Glover]

Good to see Children of Men's take this weekend. And REALLY good to see Casino Royale getting closer to move past the horrible Die Another Day!

 

[TerryRL]

Ah, c'mon. Don't hate.

"Die Another Day" wasn't that bad.

 

[Malcolm R]

IMO, DAD is vastly superior.

CR wasn't "Bond". They should have titled it "Generic Spy Movie," or maybe "Spy Hard 2".

 

[TerryRL]

Ouch.