2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

28 Weeks Later
After Dark's Horror Fest 2
Are We Done Yet?
AVP 2
Bourne 3
Die Hard 4
Evan Almighty
Fantastic Four 2
Hannibal Rising
Harry Potter 5
Hills Have Eyes 2
Hostel 2
Mr. Bean 2
National Treasure 2
Ocean's 3
Pirates 3
Resident Evil 3
Rush Hour 3
Saw 4
Shrek 3
Spidey 3

21 sequels in one year. Whoa.

There are also going to be potential "franchise openers" such as "Transformers", "Ghost Rider", "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" (which is actually the fourth Turtles flick, but the first to be CG animated), "Nancy Drew", "The Simpsons", "Underdog", "Halloween" (remake), and "His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass".

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

You mean 3.

Whoah, there's a Mr Bean 2 coming? Fun times.

 

[TerryRL]

"Mr. Bean's Holiday" is currently set for release on September 28th of '07.

 

[TerryRL]

Well, the 2008 summer season just got a little more interesting as "Star Wars" and 'Indiana Jones' creator George Lucas announced that filming on the long-in-development fourth entry of the Indy series will begin next summer. The film will be released in May of 2008.

The three prior Indy flicks, ("Raiders of the Lost Ark", "Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom", and "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade"), which were all released during the 1980s, earned a worldwide box office total of $1.2 billion. Domestically, the trilogy has sold a whopping 200 million theater admissions since 1981.

Other summer 2008 entries will be "Iron Man" (May), "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" (May), "Kung Fu Panda" (May), "The Incredible Hulk" (June), "The Dark Knight" (July), "Tonight, He Comes" (July), "Get Smart" (TBA), "Hellboy 2: The Golden Army" (TBA), "Jurassic Park IV" (TBA), "Knight Rider" (TBA), "The Mummy III" (TBA), "Terminator 4" (TBA), and "Wolverine" (TBA).

You can read Lucas' comments here...

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/ap/2...744100000.html

 

[Malcolm R]

Yeah, yeah, yeah....we've heard all that before.

As I said before, I won't believe it until I'm in the theater, popcorn in one hand and gigantic Coke in the other, and hear John Williams' theme music blaring out of the sound system.

 

[JediFonger]

i think original films are going to begin appearing online instead of through traditional channels. hopefully THIS is the year of 0-budget films breakthrough =D.

 

[Jake Yenor]

Isn't Paramount hoping to get Star Trek XI out in the summer of 08 as well?

 

[DavidPla]

I would assume they'd be shooting for Winter of 2008 like the last few Star Trek's.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Never thought about it, but the last summertime Trek was 1989's ST5. They've been purely November/December since then...

 

[JediFonger]

winter's a bad idea. summer's the best time for a good ole trek adventure, less competition and more turnout in general.

 

[Tarkin The Ewok]

If it's a good movie, then people will come, no matter what the season is. As far as I know, winter of 2008 is devoid of any LOTR-type blockbusters, so the scheduling should be fine.

 

[JediFonger]

well, the problem is that there is a lot riding on this next trek. if it fails, i think paramount is going to retreat completely and let the interest gather momentum.

just cause it's a good movie doesn't mean people will come. anything with star trek in the title has only attracted trekkies every outing since voyage home. everyone remembers 'the whale movie' whenever you mention star trek movies, but say borg and they're like, what? so even first contact isn't as well known as voyage home. there's somn interesting/unique about voyage home in that it reached beyond the core fans. for XI to be extremely successful it needs to spend a lot of $ on non-fans. i would NOT spend a dime on fans, they're going to come either way, they've already spent the $ on all the DVD's, merchandises, etc. they monitor the film's status EVERYday on websites. they will come anyway. it's a waste of $to reach the same core audiences.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

It's funny you mention The Voyage Home and how it reached beyond the core fans. I'm not a trekkie at all, and haven't seen many of the Star Trek films, at least conciously watched them from beginning to end. Just not a fan, but for some reason I've seen Star Trek IV multiple times. It's just one that I liked.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

If only for nostalgia's sake, I'll be happy to see an Indy film in the theaters again. And with Batman and possibly ST coming out during the same summer, it will seem like 1989 all over again.

 

[TerryRL]

Early studio predictions...

FOX
"Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" $185 million-plus
"The Simpsons" $150 million-plus
"Live Free or Die Hard" $100 million-plus
"Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium" $100 million-plus
"Alien vs. Predator: Survival of the Fittest" $80 million-plus
"The Hills Have Eyes 2" $50 million-plus

DISNEY
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $350 million-plus
"Ratatouille" $200 million-plus (Pixar)
"National Treasure: The Book of Secrets" $150 million-plus
"Meet the Robinsons" $125 million-plus
"Wild Hogs" $75 million-plus
"Underdog" $50 million-plus

LIONSGATE
"Saw IV" $80 million-plus
"Hostel 2" $70 million-plus
"Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls" $65 million-plus
"3:10 to Yuma" $60 million-plus
"Happily N'Ever After" $60 million-plus
"Bratz" $50 million-plus
"The Condemned" $50 million-plus
"Foodfight!" $50 million-plus
"Delta Farce" $40 million-plus
"Pride" $40 million-plus
"Slow Burn" $40 million-plus

NEW LINE
"His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass" $200 million-plus
"Rush Hour 3" $150 million-plus
"Hairspray" $100 million-plus
"The Number 23" $100 million-plus
"Code Name: The Cleaner" $50 million-plus
"Shoot 'Em Up" $50 million-plus

PARAMOUNT
"Shrek the Third" $350 million-plus (DreamWorks Animation)
"Transformers" $250 million-plus
"Beowulf" $150 million-plus
"Blades of Glory" $125 million-plus
"Bee Movie" $100 million-plus (DreamWorks Animation)
"Sweeney Todd" $100 million-plus
"Norbit" $85 million-plus
"Zodiac" $75 million-plus
"Hannibal Rising" $60 million-plus
"Seven Day Itch" $50 million-plus
"Shooter" $50 million-plus

SONY
"Spider-Man 3" $350 million-plus
"Ghost Rider" $100 million-plus
"Next" $85 million-plus
"Are We Done Yet?" $75 million-plus
"Reign Over Me" $75 million-plus
"Resident Evil: Extinction" $70 million-plus
"Perfect Stranger" $65 million-plus
"Surf's Up" $65 million-plus
"30 Days of Night" $50 million-plus
"Vantage Point" $50 million-plus

UNIVERSAL
"Evan Almighty" $200 million-plus
"The Bourne Ultimatum" $150 million-plus
"I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" $150 million-plus
"American Gangster" $75 million-plus
"The Kingdom" $60 million-plus
"Breach" $50 million-plus
"Dead Silence" $50 million-plus
"Mr. Bean's Holiday" $50 million-plus
"Smokin' Aces" $50 million-plus

WARNER BROS.
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" $285 million-plus
"I Am Legend" $150 million-plus
"Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" $150 million-plus
"Fred Claus" $125 million-plus
"Ocean's Thirteen" $125 million-plus
"The Brave One" $80 million-plus
"300" $70 million-plus
"License to Wed" $70 million-plus
"The Invasion" $60 million-plus
"Michael Clayton" $60 million-plus
"Music and Lyrics" $60 million-plus
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" $50 million-plus
"Nancy Drew" $50 million-plus
"One Missed Call" $50 million-plus
"The Reaping" $50 million-plus
"Spring Breakdown" $50 million-plus

THE WEINSTEIN CO.
"The Mist" $80 million-plus
"Grindhouse" $70 million-plus
"Rogue" $40 million-plus

 

[Malcolm R]

Are these actual studio projections or your early predictions, Terry?



.

 

[TerryRL]

Yep, as far as I know they are.

These are the numbers that the execs are throwing around right now.

 

[Malcolm R]

Hmmm...as usual, I think several are wildly optimistic (including the numbers for Happily N'Ever After, Resident Evil 3, Hostel 2, AvP 2, and Hairspray, among others).

 

[TerryRL]

They wouldn't be studio execs if they weren't wildly optimistic about predicting the successes of their product. That's just the name of the game.

As is the case every year, some of these flicks will perform up to expectations, some will grossly under-perform, while others will come out of nowhere and prove to be huge hits.

In the end, I think the only "sure-things" of '07 are the four flicks focusing on Spidey, Shrek, Harry Potter, and Capt. Jack Sparrow. Everything else is a crap-shoot, but most studio execs think '07 will be a record-shattering year. Yes, they thought the same thing about '05, but that's another story.

Still, thanks to DVD its pretty hard for a movie to lose money, regardless of what most execs say about the subject. If your budget is over $200 million, you do put a lot of added pressure on yourself for the movie to perform. Generally speaking though, only "sure-things" usually have those kind of budgets. For '07 the most expensive flick is easily "Spider-Man 3". After marketing costs are factored in, Spidey 3 could become the first flick to cost a studio over $300 million to bring to the screen, but I seriously doubt Sony is worried about that. No one thinks that one will earn less than $700 million worldwide. Not to mention it should be among the top five selling DVD titles of the year when its released next fall.

About certain titles, studio execs do have cause to feel a little cocky.

 

[Adam_S]

fwiw, the inflation adjusted budget of Cleopatra is 300 million plus. but what I want to know is what percentage of the FOX operating budget that was at the time? My guess is that inflation adjusted budget or not, a 300 million film couldn't begin to compare to Cleopatras financial impact today.