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2007 at the Box Office

Discussion in 'Movies' started by TerryRL, Nov 2, 2006.

  1. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    With just eight weeks to go in 2006, I thought it would be a good time to get this thread started (before Tino started harassing me to start it [​IMG] ). With this year nearing its end, the industry is breathing a slight sigh of release since 2006 will finish with stronger numbers than what were posted last year, due in large part to higher ticket prices. Still, studio execs remain "concerned" with the number of admissions sold.

    Going into the weekend, 2006 has sold about 1.13 billion tickets, up slightly from the 1.11 billion admissions sold at this point last year. The box office total for this year stands at $7.467 billion compared to the $7.108 billion 2005 had earned during the same time. Compared to past years, here is how 2006's year-to-date totals stack up...

    2006 1.13 billion ($7.467 billion)
    2005 1.11 billion ($7.108 billion)
    2004 1.24 billion ($7.724 billion)
    2003 1.24 billion ($7.468 billion)
    2002 1.27 billion ($7.371 billion)

    With 2005 falling way short of industry expectations, not a whole lot was expected of 2006, but the year got a major boost from the hugely successful 'Pirates of the Caribbean' sequel (which accounts for $421.3 million of 2006's overall domestic tally). The industry has pulled out the big guns for 2007 and are hoping that the year not only eclipses the numbers posted this year, but also the numbers posted during 2004. Overall, 2004 earned a record $9.418 billion while selling 1.516 billion admissions.

    The $9.418 billion mark represents the biggest domestic box office mark ever for a single year. As for ticket sales, the 1.516 billion tally is the third best in history, trailing 2002's record-shattering 1.578 billion, and 2003's mark of 1.523 billion. 2007 has a lot to live up to, but the studios are confident that the year could become one of the biggest on record, in spite of higher ticket prices.

    2005 marked the 30th anniversary of the birth of the summer blockbuster with 1975's "Jaws" and the industry truly believed they had a lineup that would produce the biggest year the industry has seen since Spielberg unleashed that Great White on an unsuspecting public. Needless to say, only a handful of films performed up to or beyond expectations ('Revenge of the Sith', 'The Chronicles of Narnia', the fourth 'Harry Potter'). 2007 will mark the 30th anniversary of the release of the original "Star Wars" movie (Lucasfilm is expected to announce a special anniversary DVD set sometime in the Spring), a film that changed the entire focus of the industry. Again, the studios are expecting (hoping) the year's releases produce some sensational box office results.

    I'm expecting 2007 to post numbers similar to 2004's, but I'd be surprised if the total number of ticket sales come close to the record amount that 2002 posted. Still, you never know. In any event, the studios have a lot riding on 2007.
     
  2. Mike.P

    Mike.P Second Unit

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    Whats the early list of the big films of next year?

    Transformers (which I expect to flop), Spiderman 3 (which I expect to not)... and thats all I've got off the top of my head at 3 am.
     
  3. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    Tentative 2007 Wide Release Schedule
    (all dates subject to change)

    JANUARY
    5th
    -"Code Name: The Cleaner" (New Line)
    -"Freedom Writers" (Paramount)
    -"Happily N'Ever After" (Lionsgate)
    12th
    -"Abandoned" (Freestyle Releasing)
    -"Alpha Dog" (Universal)
    -"Arthur and the Invisibles" (MGM/Weinstein Co.)
    -"Miss Potter" (MGM)
    -"Primeval" (Disney)
    -"Stomp the Yard" (Sony/Screen Gems)
    19th
    -"The Hitcher" (Rogue)
    26th
    -"Blood and Chocolate" (MGM)
    -"Catch and Release" (Sony)
    -"Epic Movie" (Fox)
    -"Nomad" (Weinstein Co.)
    -"Smokin' Aces" (Universal)

    FEBRUARY
    2nd
    -"Because I Said So" (Universal)
    -"Factory Girl" (MGM/Weinstein)
    -"The Messengers" (Sony/Revolution)
    9th
    -"Hannibal Rising" (MGM)
    -"Letters from Iwo Jima" (WB)
    -"Norbit" (Paramount)
    14th (Wednesday)
    -"Music and Lyrics" (WB)
    -"Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls" (Lionsgate)
    16th
    -"Breach" (Universal)
    -"Bridge to Tarabithia" (Disney)
    -"Ghost Rider" (Sony)
    23rd
    -"The Abandoned" (Freestyle Releasing)
    -"The Astronaut Farmer" (WB)
    -"Black Snake Moan" (Paramount Vantage)
    -"Gray Matters" (Yari Film Group)
    -"The Number 23" (New Line)
    -"Reno 911: Miami" (Fox)

    MARCH
    2nd
    -"The Hills Have Eyes II" (Fox)
    -"Two Weeks" (MGM)
    -"Wild Hogs" (Disney)
    -"Zodiac" (Paramount)
    9th
    -"300" (WB)
    -"Black Book" (Sony Classics)
    -"Fast Track" (MGM/Weinstein Co.)
    -"The Host" (Magnolia)
    -"Maxed Out" (Magnolia)
    -"Reign Over Me" (Sony)
    16th
    -"Captivity" (Freestyle Releasing)
    -"I Think I Love My Wife" (Fox Searchlight)
    -"Lucky You" (WB)
    -"The Pleasure of Your Company" (MGM)
    -"Shooter" (Paramount)
    -"Sunshine" (Fox Searchlight)
    23rd
    -"Dead Silence" (Universal)
    -"First Snow" (Yari Film Group)
    -"The Lookout" (Miramax)
    -"Mimzy" (New Line)
    -"Mr. Brooks" (MGM)
    -"Pride" (Lionsgate)
    -"Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" (WB)
    30th
    -"Blades of Glory" (Paramount)
    -"Meet the Robinsons" (Disney)
    -"The Reaping" (WB)
    -"Rescue Dawn" (MGM)

    APRIL
    4th
    -"Firehouse Dog" (Fox)
    6th
    -"Are We Done Yet?" (Sony/Revolution)
    -"Grindhouse" (Weinstein Co.)
    -"Severance" (Magnolia)
    13th
    -"Hot Fuzz" (Rogue)
    -"The Invisible" (Disney)
    -"Penelope" (IFC)
    -"Perfect Stranger" (Sony/Revolution)
    -"Spring Breakdown" (WB)
    -"Year of the Dog" (Paramount Vantage)
    20th
    -"Civic Duty" (Freestyle Releasing)
    -"Even Money" (Yari Film Group)
    -"Fan Boys" (MGM/Weinstein Co.)
    -"The Flying Scotsman" (MGM)
    -"In the Land of Women" (WB)
    -"Kickin' It Old School" (Yari Film Group)
    -"The Kingdom" (Universal)
    -"The Nanny Diaries" (MGM/Weinstein)
    -"The Tripper" (Freestyle Releasing)
    -"Vacancy" (Sony/Screen Gems)
    27th
    -"The Condemned" (Lionsgate)
    -"Fracture" (New Line)
    -"The Last Legion" (MGM)
    -"Next" (Sony)
    -"Pathfinder" (Fox)

    MAY
    4th
    -"Spider-Man 3" (Sony)
    11th
    -"28 Weeks Later" (Fox)
    -"Delta Force" (Lionsgate)
    -"Georgia Rule" (Universal)
    -"The Golden Door" (Weinstein Co.)
    18th
    -"1408" (Dimention)
    -"Shrek the Third" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
    -"Paprika" (Sony Classics)
    25th
    -"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Disney)

    JUNE
    1st
    -"Eagle vs. Shark" (Weinstein Co.)
    -"Gracie" (Picturehouse)
    -"Hot Rod" (Paramount)
    -"Knocked Up" (Universal)
    -"The Tripper" (Freestyle Releasing)
    8th
    -"Hostel 2" (Lionsgate)
    -"Ocean's Thirteen" (WB)
    -"Surf's Up" (Sony)
    15th
    -"Evening" (Focus)
    -"Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" (Fox)
    -"Nancy Drew" (WB)
    22nd
    -"Evan Almighty" (Universal)
    -"A Mighty Heart" (Paramount Vantage)
    -"Slow Burn" (Lionsgate)
    29th
    -"Live Free or Die Hard" (Fox)
    -"Ratatouille" (Disney/Pixar)
    -"You Kill Me" (IFC)

    JULY
    4th
    -"License to Wed" (WB)
    -"Skinwalkers" (Freestyle Releasing)
    -"Transformers" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
    13th
    -"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (WB)
    -"Strangers" (Rogue)
    20th
    -"Hairspray" (New Line)
    -"I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" (Universal)
    -"Talk to Me" (Focus Features)
    27th
    -"El Cantante" (Picturehouse)
    -"No Reservations" (WB)
    -"The Simpson" (Fox)
    -"Stardust" (Paramount)

    AUGUST
    3rd
    -"Becoming Jane" (Miramax)
    -"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal)
    -"Charlie Bartless" (MGM)
    -"Underdog" (Disney)
    10th
    -"Bratz" (Lionsgate)
    -"The Greatest Escape" (Sony)
    -"Rush Hour 3" (New Line)
    17th
    -"Disturbia" (Paramount)
    -"The Invasion" (WB)
    -"Super Bad" (Sony)
    24th
    -"The Comebacks" (Fox Atomic)
    -"Good Luck Chuck" (Lionsgate)
    -"One Missed Call" (WB)
    -"Virgin Territory" (MGM/Weinstein Co.)
    31st
    -"The Brothers Solomon" (Sony/Screen Gems)
    -"Halloween" (Dimention)

    SEPTEMBER
    7th
    -"Shoot 'Em Up" (New Line)
    -"Untraceable" (Sony)
    14th
    -"College" (Lionsgate)
    -"Feast of Love" (MGM)
    -"Michael Clayton" (WB)
    21st
    -"Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage)
    -"Resident Evil: Extinction" (Sony/Screen Gems)
    28th
    -"The Brave One" (WB)
    -"The Dark is Rising" (Fox)
    -"Mr. Bean's Holiday" (Universal)

    OCTOBER
    5th
    -"The Golden Age" (Universal)
    -"Seven Day Itch" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
    -"Trick 'r Treat" (WB)
    -"Vantage Point" (Sony)
    12th
    -"3:10 to Yuma" (Lionsgate)
    -"Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)
    -"Martian Child" (New Line)
    19th
    -"30 Days of Night" (Sony)
    -"Pathology" (MGM)
    26th
    -"Elegy" (MGM)
    -"Mr. Woodcock" (New Line)
    -"Saw IV" (Lionsgate)

    NOVEMBER
    2nd
    -"American Gangster" (Universal)
    -"Bee Movie" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
    9th
    -"After Dark's Horror Fest 2" (Freestyle Releasing)
    -"Fred Claus" (WB)
    16th
    -"Beowulf" (Sony)
    -"Foodfight!" (Lionsgate)
    -"Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium" (Fox)
    21st (Wednesday)
    -"Enchanted" (Disney)
    -"The Mist" (Weinstein Co.)
    30th
    -"This Christmas" (Sony)

    DECEMBER
    7th
    -"His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass" (New Line)
    -"Motel Hell" (MGM)
    -"The Waterhorse" (Sony/Revolution)
    14th
    -"Alvin and the Chipmunks" (Fox)
    -"I Am Legend" (WB)
    -"Made of Honor" (Sony)
    21st
    -"Alien vs. Predator 2: Survival of the Fittest" (Fox)
    -"The Eye" (Lionsgate)
    -"National Treasure: The Book of Secrets" (Disney)
    25th (Tuesday)
    -"Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)
    -"Sweeney Todd" (Paramount)
    28th
    -"Venetian Affair" (MGM)
     
  4. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    The "Big Ones" with the highest expectations are "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End", "Shrek the Third", "Spider-Man 3", and "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix". These four movies are expected to be gigantic blockbusters. Any one of them could end up being the year's top grossing movie.

    "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer", "Ocean's Thirteen", "Transformers", "Ratatouille", "Evan Almighty", "Rush Hour 3", "The Bourne Ultimatum", "The Simpsons", "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry", "Fred Claus", 'AVP 2', "I Am Legend", "National Treasure 2", and 'His Dark Materials' are some of the other films that the industry see as being potentially huge hits.
     
  5. MikeRS

    MikeRS Screenwriter

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    May is gonna be one titanic Clash Of The Titans.

    Spidey 2 has the edge with a 2 week window.
     
  6. Colin Jacobson

    Colin Jacobson Producer

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    Actually, Spidey 2 has about a three-year edge... [​IMG]
     
  7. Chuck Mayer

    Chuck Mayer Lead Actor

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    May is certainly where the Titans meet. I don't think HP5 has any shot at the numbers those three will fight over. One is going to be SEEN as a disappointment...my guess is Shrek 3 (it will still make over $250M easily). Pirates 3 will probably outgross the other two, with Spidey 3 comfortably making $350M. But there is a lot of other interesting things coming out.

    Zodiac in January, 300 in March. Those are the first two on my horizon.
     
  8. DavidPla

    DavidPla Screenwriter

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    What a year! Much more interesting movies than this year. I don't think I've ever seen a summer loaded with as many would be blockbusters than 2007. Looks good.
     
  9. Chris

    Chris Lead Actor

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    I admit, I'm most interested in films that are not blockbusters on that list. Though HP5 is of interest to me, the only other "blockbuster" type film on my list is "Borne Ultimatum" which I do look forward to.

    I haven't seen either of the other "Pirates" flicks, and don't have much interest in seeing the first two before the third, though I'm sure it will do well. Shrek The Third is of NO interest to me at all, I was very disappointed in the second and based on it, I wouldn't take my kids to the third.
     
  10. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    Spidey 3
    shrek 3
    pirates 3
    oceans 3
    rush hour 3
    bourne 3
    resident evil 3

    Damn.
     
  11. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    I'd say Spidey will be the biggest hit of the summer and come damned close to 400 mil. I'd guess Shrek 3 will make about 350, as will Pirates 3. Harry 5 will make around 300, though thirty minutes of nonstop action/battle at the end of the film may help it.

    I'd say Spidey has the biggest demand, but not nearly as big as Pirates 2 had built up for it, with Shrek and Harry as close seconds. The general public is not aware that the next pirates movie is coming out next may (that'll change with the DVD release and trailers attached to big hollywood movies (james bond perhaps? or apocalypto?) this christmas.
     
  12. Jason Harbaugh

    Jason Harbaugh Screenwriter

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    I think Transformers could actually be a pretty big hit. Every time I've seen the teaser trailer play in a theatre full of people, people have cheered at seeing the logo appear. With all of the other big action movies already being out and having 9 days to itself before Potter shows, it shouldn't have a problem breaking 150m and probably sneak towards 200m which would be a hit for it. I don't expect Spidey or Pirates number from it.
     
  13. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    Disney may opt to place a Pirates 3 teaser before either "Deja Vu" (11/22) or "Apocalypto" (12/8). They may wait until the release of "Meet the Robinsons" (3/30/07) to unveil the full trailer. Pirates 2 has now pocketed $1.06 billion worldwide, so you know Disney is expecting Pirates 3 to also post huge numbers.

    Spidey 3 has the advantage because it'll be the first one out of the gates. By the time Pirates 3 opens, both Spidey 3 and 'Shrek' will be in theaters. Regardless of which film has the best opening of the year, that Memorial Day holiday weekend should yield some pretty sick box office totals for the three movies.
     
  14. ToddP

    ToddP Stunt Coordinator

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    I see Alpha Dog on your list. What happened to that movie? Wasn't it supposed to come out in April of this year? I like Emile Hirsch.
     
  15. Mike.P

    Mike.P Second Unit

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    Hmmmm, nothing jumping out at me immediately for next year - I'll see Spidey 3, but Spidey 2 was a disappointment to me, I'll see Pirates 3, but 2 was a disappointment... you see where this trend is going.

    Zodiac is definately up there, though. And a new Wes Anderson, hopefully? Those will be stellar I'm sure.
     
  16. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    I'm not too familiar with the story behind the delays on "Alpha Dog". Maybe they decided to tweak it further before releasing it.
     
  17. Tim Glover

    Tim Glover Lead Actor

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    Good list...I really, really am anxious to see The Bourne Ultimatum. The Bourne series has been a breath of fresh air for that genre. Smart, gritty, and cool. Can't wait for this one in August. [​IMG]
     
  18. Josh.C

    Josh.C Second Unit

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    Mixed feelings on the list. Much potential, and many films I don't have a clue about (hopefully 2 or 3 will be a nice surprise).

    I can't for the life of me figure out why Spider Man 3 and Pirates 3 are going to be released within 2 weeks of each other. My only guess is that the studios want to get them both out early to get the entire summer run out of them. I am still of the opinion that spacing these movies out a month apart would ensure close to $400m for both of them. I don't know who will take the bigger hit with them being so close to each other, but I think it will hurt them both.

    As someone inferred above, I'm just hoping all of these part 3's will help out their lackluster part 2's. Actually I liked the second Bourne, Rush Hour, and Spidey, but IMO Ocean's 12, POTC 2 were big let downs.

    I'm also excited and a little worried about HP&tOotP. Loved the book, but will be hard to translate this one into a movie, and I am still upset over the casting of Dumbledore in the past 2 movies. I love this series, but wish they would continue to open these movies in November or December. Hard to explain, but it just seems to work better for me in the winter months.

    We will see
     
  19. BrettGallman

    BrettGallman Screenwriter

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    Movies pretty much guaranteed to make huge bank are: Most of the sequels (Spidey, POTC, Shrek, and Rush Hour especially), The Simpsons (which I think will be HUGE), Transformers (has the advantage of appealing to the young crowds of today, and those who remember the original Transformers of 20 years ago), TMNT (for the same reason).

    Potential flops: Fantastic Four 2 (I hope it doesn't, but it's possible. I mean, I didn't LOVE the first one, but I hope anything with Silver Surfer does well), National Treasure 2. It just seems to me that demand for these two sequels isn't there, but that may just be me.

    I'm personally looking forward to alot of films next year. It should be an awesome year. Also, I would also like to add that both Transformers and TMNT movies are making me feel really old at this point. [​IMG]
     
  20. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    May is unreal, three films from franchises that each have a film in the all time top five.

    I actually think Pirates will suffer most. People got their fix this summer but they've been waiting three years for new Shrek and Spidey, those will be first priorities.

    In terms of today's generation, having Spidey and Pirates on top of each other is like having Return of the Jedi and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade release two weeks apart. Pirates and Spidey are the two ongoing franchises that define an entire generation of movie going.
     

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