2006 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Malcolm R]

I think "Happy Feet" may surprise many. I know of a LOT of people want to see "that animated penguin movie with Robin Williams." I don't know of anyone who wants to see Blond, er...Bond.

 

[Patrick Sun]

On Yahoo photos, I saw photos from the premiere showing of Happy Feet, and they actually had some real penguins waddle down the snow-covered runway into the theater.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Casino Royale" $14.7 million
#2 "Happy Feet" $11.7 million
#3 "Borat" $4.9 million ($81.0 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Stranger Than Fiction" $2.2 million ($18.5 million) 54% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" $2.0 million ($45.4 million) 62% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Flushed Away" $1.5 million ($43.5 million) 71% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Saw III" $865K ($72.9 million) 64% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Babel" $860K ($9.9 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "After Dark's Horror Fest: 8 Films to Die For" $810K
#10 "The Departed" $760K ($112.0 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop

Its going to be a tight race for the top spot this weekend as both "Casino Royale" and "Happy Feet" are on course for opening marks of more than $35 million. Don't be surprised if "Happy Feet" moves past "Casino Royale" today, since animated films usually see the bulk of their business on Saturday and Sunday, but the race for #1 will still be a close one.

"Borat" saw a 50% dip in its Friday-to-Friday numbers, but should still pull in more than $12 million this weekend. "Stranger Than Fiction" is beginning to look as if its going to have a stronger run once it gets to home video. "Happy Feet" really took a toll on 'The Santa Clause 3' and "Flushed Away" as both films saw steep percentage declines yesterday.

While both Bond and the Penguins are going to have solid weekend debuts, the two films should also earn stellar marks (seeing meager percentage dips) during next week's busy Thanksgiving holiday frame.

 

[Kevin Grey]

The declines are all inflated since last Friday was a holiday for some. I'd expect the rest of the weekend should stabalize things a bit.

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, it looks like the box office winner was wearing a tux....



...but were also very short and liked to dance.

 

[Travis_S]

Just as I predicted above.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Happy Feet" $42.3 million
#2 "Casino Royale" $40.6 million
#3 "Borat" $14.3 million ($90.5 million) -49%
#4 "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" $8.2 million ($51.6 million) -51%
#5 "Flushed Away" $6.8 million ($48.8 million) -59%
#6 "Stranger Than Fiction" $6.6 million ($22.9 million) -50%
#7 "Babel" $2.9 million ($12.0 million) -47%
#8 "Saw III" $2.8 million ($74.8 million) -60%
#9 "The Departed" $2.6 million ($113.8 million) -49%
#10 "After Dark's Horror Fest: 8 Films to Die For" $2.4 million

Both "Happy Feet" and "Casino Royale" had stellar weekends and will mark (if the estimates hold) only the second time in history that two films opened with more than $40 million apiece (the first time was the 2005 Memorial Day holiday frame when "Madagascar" and "The Longest Yard" accomplished this rare feat). Still, overall business was down 23% compared to last year when "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" opened with a massive $102.3 million. This week was also down 6% when compared to the numbers posted by 2004 during this same weekend when "National Treasure" and "The SpongeBob Squarepants Movie" got out of the gates with $35.1 million and $32.0 million respectively.

2006's year-to-date total now stands at $7.974 billion, which is up 5% compared to this point last year ($7.588 billion), but remains down 2% to 2004's $8.171 billion mark. 2006 has now sold an estimated 1.210 billion admissions, compared to the 1.185 billion 2005 had tallied by this time. 2004 had already sold 1.315 billion tickets during this same period. 2002 continues to maintain the record as it had already moved a stellar 1.355 billion admissions before the Thanksgiving holiday frame.

WB's "Happy Feet" gave the studio the 12th biggest opening mark ever for an animated film. The film's $42.3 million debut was also good enough to rank as the 11th best start ever for the month of November. The animated film's per-theater average of $11,125 from its massive 3,804 locations was the second best of the top ten. After debuting with $12.0 million on Friday, $2.9 million behind "Casino Royale", the Penguin flick earned a stellar $17.1 million on Saturday (an impressive 42% jump) to snag the top spot away from 007 which pulled in $15.7 million (a 5% Friday-to-Saturday jump). Sunday estimates are $13.1 million for "Happy Feet" (a 23% Saturday-to-Sunday drop) and an even $10 mil for Bond (a 36% Saturday-to-Sunday drop).

WB is expecting a very nice holiday run from "Happy Feet". Studio execs are already prognosticating a domestic run of more than $150 million. Their confidence stemming largely from the fact that "Happy Feet" also bested the $23.3 million debut of "The Polar Express" (which legged its way to a final domestic tally of $173.6 million), which was WB's first foray into the CG animated arena. "Happy Feet" is their second CG animated flick and judging by the results WB has joined Disney (Pixar), DreamWorks, and Fox in the battle for CG supremacy.

Sony's reboot of the James Bond franchise, "Casino Royale", got off to the second best start of the 43-year-old franchise. For the Bond franchise, the film's $40.6 million debut is second only to the $47.0 million opening of 2002's "Die Another Day", which also ranks as both the biggest Bond hit domestically ($160.9 million) and worldwide ($431.9 million). The $40.6 million start also gave "Casino Royale" the 12th biggest opening mark ever for the month of November. The 21st Bond flick earned a per-theater average of $11,822 from its 3,434 locations, which was the best of the top ten.

The new 007 adventure has received stellar reviews, with many saying new Bond Daniel Craig is the best actor in the role since the great Sean Connery, the studio is expecting this one to have a fantastic run in theaters and have little difficulty in becoming the fifth consecutive movie from the franchise to top the century mark. The next Bond flick will hit theaters two years from now.

Fox's "Borat" saw a 49% dip in business this weekend as the film's total now stands at $90.5 million. This time next weekend should see the film top the century mark. Disney's 'The Santa Clause 3' has now tallied $51.6 million, while DreamWorks' "Flushed Away" stands at just under $49 million. Sony's "Stranger Than Fiction" is showing signs of a fast fade as it lost nearly 51% of its business from last weekend. The comedy has now earned just under $23 million and looks headed for a final mark in the area of $35-$40 million.

Paramount Vantage's "Babel" isn't really registering with mainstream audiences as it suffered a 47% decline from its modest 1,251 locations. Lionsgate's "Saw III" is nearing the $75 million plateau. WB's "The Departed" has so far earned $113.8 million. Freestyle Releasing's "After Dark Horror Fest: 8 Films to Die For" pulled in a respectable $2.4 million from its very modest 488 theaters, giving it a per-theater average of $5,086, which was the fourth best of the top ten.

Universal's "Let's Go to Prison" crashed and burned upon its release as it earned a paltry $2.1 million from its 1,495 locations, giving it a meager average of $1,410. Fox's "A Good Year" has turned into a very forgettable experience for both director Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe as the film has now turned into a $35 million flop. The duo are hoping for better results with their next outing, "American Gangster", which will hit theaters next year.

Next weekend marks the busy Thanksgiving holiday frame as five new releases hit theaters. Disney's "Deja Vu", Fox's "Deck the Halls", New Line's "Tenacious D in the Pick of Destiny", and WB's "The Fountain" all challenge "Happy Feet" for the top spot. Thanksgiving Day will see the release of MGM's Oscar hopeful "Bobby". Sony's Oscar hopeful, "The Pursuit of Happyness" (which many believe will net megastar Will Smith his second Best Actor Oscar nod) will preview in about 500 theaters on Friday night.

Even with all the new releases hitting theaters, I'd be surprised if "Happy Feet" didn't repeat as the top grossing flick in the land over the four-day holiday frame.

 

[JediFonger]

terryl, are you writing this or is it copy&paste?

 

[TerryRL]

I don't copy and paste. I wrote this.

 

[Chris]

Terry does great work He's part of the reason a lot of us keep frequenting this thread

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Terry is one of the treasures of the board. His insight and experience are invaluable to those of us who watch the box office like a sports ticker.

Good to see Bond do so well...second place might be seen as a failure, but it's not. Word of mouth should support a nice strong run. It'll be the first Bond I've seen more than once in theaters since...forever

 

[TerryRL]

Chris and Chuck, thanks for the compliments. I really appreciate it.

As for Bond's opening, the film earned the second best opening of the franchise, as well as this being only the second time that a Bond adventure has debuted with more than $40 million. With the film earning some of the best reviews the series has seen in years, I think this bodes well for Daniel Craig's stint as 007.

The next Bond flick could end up flirting with a $50 million debut this time next year. Many are not only proclaiming this film to be easily one of the best Bonds of the franchise (most ranking it among the top five with the likes of "Goldfinger", "From Russia with Love", "On Her Majesty's Secret Service", and "Thunderball"), but are also saying that Craig's portrayal of 007 ranks only behind that of icon Sean Connery.

Not that's high praise. Congrats to Sony and MGM for what looks to be another successful franchise "retooling" (ala Batman and Superman).

 

[Robert Crawford]

As one of the old farts on this forum that's been watching Bond films from the beginning, I would agree with those comments about this latest Bond entry and Craig's portrayal of James Bond.




Crawdaddy

 

[Greg Layton]

I've spent the last couple of days reading through this thread from the beginning. Thanks for your hard work Terry.

 

[Greg Layton]

Is anyone else surprised to see "Stranger than Fiction" underachieve? I thought it was a very good story, certainly the best movie Will Ferrel has been involved in. I guess it just didn't find an audience.

 

[TerryRL]

You're very welcome Greg.

I think "Stranger Than Fiction" suffered from bad timing. No one expected "Borat" to do what its doing and it became the comedy of choice for moviegoers. I think "Stranger Than Fiction" will probably have a much stronger run on home video than it its showing in theaters.

 

[Tim Glover]

AMEN...and has for years.

 

[TerryRL]

Thanks Tim.

Five years and counting.

 

[Tino]

And as usual, a pleasure to read!

Terry is the best there is. You should start your own website Terry.

 

[TerryRL]

Thanks Tino.

I actually used to write for a website once upon a time. I deal with a lot less b.s. doing it this way to be perfectly honest with you. Anyway, I am glad you all seem to dig my contributions to this forum.