2005 at the Box Office (3 Viewers)

[Haggai]

Phantom hasn't really bombed, has it? According to boxofficemojo.com its per-theater average was 2nd among the top 25 movies this past weekend, behind only Meet the Fockers (the obvious #1). Apparently Phantom is still playing in just over 600 theaters, which seems like a weird release pattern for its first couple of weeks--when does it go wide?

 

[SarahG]

Haggai I agree -- doesn't seem like it's bombed to me, from what I"ve read. Hmm.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

I believe PHANTOM goes wide on January 21st. It's doing fairly well right now for being in so few theaters.

 

[Jim Barg]

Phantom goes in 2,000+ screens on the 21st, so that will be the real litmus test.



My hopes aren't high, mainly due to the people behind the camera. I see it making Daredevil-level money, even with the July 4th weekend behind it (swamped by War of the Worlds). We'll see though, I'm looking forward to that first trailer.

 

[Matt Stone]

I'm hoping for the best and expecting the worst. I'm still not sure how Tim Story got the directing job.

Sin City will be the comic film to beat for 2005. What a fantastic trailer.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

For two weekends in a row now, Phantom has the second highest per theater average of all the films in the Top 10 while in limited release. In its second weekend, it enjoyed a 20% increase over the past weekend. In three weeks, it will be shown in additional 1400+ screens.

That is hardly a bomb.

~Edwin

 

[Haggai]

Does anybody know why Phantom will have this rather limited release for its first month? One guess is that they're starting out in the areas that have hosted the stage play at some time in the past decade, but that's a really random guess based on no actual information.

 

[Kevin Grey]

I read on Cinescape that FF's budget may have been increased by as much as $20 million after Fox saw The Incredibles.

 

[Jim Barg]

Another equally random guess: it could be to also build word-of-mouth and demand. Considering the budget was rumored to be around $100 million, I'm not sure if WB wanted to take the chance and release it wide during the Christmas rush. Sure, you'd have a strong two weekends, but after that, who knows? I think Chicago had the same release pattern, too.

 

[Malcolm R]

Chick Flick + Valentine's Day approaching = Perfect time to go wide.

 

[Haggai]

Yeah, you're right. I checked on Box Office Mojo, it opened limited in late December 2002, and went wide a month later.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

If that is the real reason then Million Dollar Baby, Sideways, Hotel Rwanda, Black Hawk Down and Monster must all be "chick flicks" too.

No, this release pattern is more common this time of the year especially for Oscar hopefuls as studios want to build word of mouth as they appear on numerous Top 10 lists, get some awards and keep the film fresh during Oscar voting season.

~Edwin

 

[TerryRL]

The studios took in $9.4 billion at the box office during 2004 (which also counts 2003 holdovers), but attendance was down for the second straight year. Where the studios excelled was on home video. Counting only DVD sales (not counting DVD rentals or VHS sales/rentals) the studios took in more than $16 billion in 2004.

As for 'Phantom', WB is very much hoping for the same kind of success Miramax enjoyed with "Chicago". The movie is doing solid business so far and could ultimately end up being the biggest hit director Joel Schumacher has had in years. A healthy dose of Oscar nods won't hurt either. Are moviegoers ready to forgive him for "Batman & Robin"?

 

[Ernest Rister]

"I don't think anyone doubts that WB has the money, we're just wondering what they're possibly spending it on."

Losses from the AOL division and multi-million SEC fines from AOL overstating its earnings to shareholders.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Not this one.

Not EVER.

Schuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuumaaaaaaaaacher!!!!!

Take care,
Chuck

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Meet the Fockers" $8.85 million ($184.6 million) 27% Friday to Friday drop
#2 "White Noise" $8.80 million
#3 "The Aviator" $2.1 million ($37.4 million) 44% Friday to Friday drop
#4 "Ocean's Twelve" $1.7 million ($111.7 million) 39% Friday to Friday drop
#5 "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events" $1.6 million ($99.7 million) 64% Friday to Friday drop
#6 "Fat Albert" $1.3 million ($36.6 million) 56% Friday to Friday drop
#7 "Spanglish" $1.2 million ($34.5 million) 23% Friday to Friday drop
#8 "National Treasure" $1.2 million ($157.4 million) 48% Friday to Friday drop
#9 "The Phantom of the Opera" $1.0 million ($19.1 million) 34% Friday to Friday drop
#10 "The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou" $858K ($17.5 million) 13% Friday to Friday drop

"White Noise" is putting up a much stronger challenge for #1 than most people anticipated. Even if it does end up taking the #2 slot for the weekend, the movie will still have produced the biggest opening weekend for star Michael Keaton since 1992's "Batman Returns" ($45.6 million).

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

The Friday to Friday drop is understandable considering 2 Fridays ago was a holiday for most people who were able to get in some matinee viewings.

~Edwin

 

[Colin Jacobson]

But on the other hand, night-time showings probably went absolutely in the tank on Friday 12/31 - I think whatever extra matinee money was made was more than negated by the lost night-time revenue...

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Meet the Fockers" $28.4 million ($204.2 million) -31%
#2 "White Noise" $24.0 million
#3 "The Aviator" $7.6 million ($42.9 million) -33%
#4 "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events" $7.4 million ($105.5 million) -49%
#5 "Fat Albert" $6.0 million ($41.2 million) -41%
#6 "Ocean's Twelve" $5.4 million ($115.4 million) -42%
#7 "National Treasure" $4.47 million ($160.7 million) -34%
#8 "Spanglish" $4.40 million ($37.6 million) -28%
#9 "The Phantom of the Opera" $3.4 million ($21.5 million) -28%
#10 "The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou" $2.6 million ($19.3 million) -39%

The Universal/DreamWorks collaboration of "Meet the Fockers" made it three weekends in a row at #1 while suffering only a 31% decline. The movie also passed the double-century mark this weekend, bringing it's total to $204.2 million. The movie now seems headed for a final tally in the area of $275 million, easily making it the biggest hit film in the careers of it's stars, as well as it's director. I think it's safe to assume that a third film in the "Meet the Parents" franchise will hit theaters within the next few years.

Universal also snagged the #2 slot this weekend with a bigger than expected debut for the horror film "White Noise". The movie earned $24 million, becoming the first $20 million-plus opener for 2005. The movie also gave star Michael Keaton his biggest opener since the $45.6 million start of "Batman Returns" back in Summer 1992. "White Noise" also had a per-theater average of $10,635 from 2,261 theaters, which was easily the best of the top ten.

The Miramax/WB Oscar hopeful, "The Aviator", took the third slot this weekend. The movie earned $7.6 million, bringing its total to just under $43 million. The movie took only a 33% dip this weekend and is showing sturdy legs. With the expected bump from the upcoming Oscar nominations, the movie could end up earning well over $80 million, becoming the biggest hit film in the career of director Martin Scorsese. If the movie goes on to win the Best Picture Oscar, Scorsese could be looking at the first $100 million hit of his long career. We'll see what happens.

Paramount's 'Lemony Snickets' gave the studio much needed good news as it became their first release since Summer 2003's "The Italian Job" to pass the century mark. The movie took a 49% hit and has so far tallied $105.5 million. This gives star Jim Carrey the ninth $100 million-plus earner of his career.

Fox's "Fat Albert" took a moderate 41% dip this weekend as it's total climbed to just over $41 million. The movie is expected to end it's run in the neighborhood of $60 million, making it a solid performer for the studio.

WB's "Ocean's Twelve" took a 42% hit and has so far tallied $115.4 million. A final tally of about $130 million is expected. Disney's smash, "National Treasure", continues to do solid business. The movie fell off by only 34% and has so far earned $160.7 million. This one should top out in the area of $175 million.

Sony's dramedy "Spanglish" took only a 28% hit this weekend. The movie earned $37.6 million thus far and seems headed for a final mark in the area of $50-$60 million. The problem is that the movie cost more than $80 million to make (not counting marketing costs) and will need a very strong run overseas and on home video if Sony is ever to see a profit.

WB's Oscar hopeful, "The Phantom of the Opera", also saw a slight dip of 28% this weekend. The movie has so far taken in $21.5 million from only 622 theaters. The film's per-theater average of $5,522 was the third best of the top ten behind "White Noise" and "Meet the Fockers" ($8,070 from 3,527 locations).

Rounding out the top ten was Disney's dramedy "The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou". The movie took a moderate 39% hit this weekend and saw its earnings climb to $19.3 million.

"White Noise" got the year off to a good start in this, the first full weekend of the new year. Next weekend will see three new releases challenge "Meet the Fockers" for the top slot. Paramount's "Coach Carter", Fox's "Elektra" and WB's "Racing Stripes" all hit theaters next week. "Elektra" is the early favorite to snag the top spot, but don't count out "Coach Carter" which had extremely positive previews on Saturday.

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Wow, I never imagined MtF (heh, even its abbreviation is chuckle-inducing) would garner THAT much moola. EW's Lisa Shwartzbaum gave the film a B-, which is about what I would give it, but a projected $275m is pretty astounding. I wonder if it was the de-Niro/Hoffman/Stiller/Streisand quad-fecta that did the trick. Of course, having the ever-enchanting Polo in there surely didn't hurt (what a sweetheart she is, too).

Great job as always, Terry. Can I ask a teeny favor? Can you use "its" instead of "it's"? It's (aka "it is") one of those things that jars me whenever I see its (aka possessiveness) improper use.