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Apple TV -- The rumors and predictions mount. Will you buy one?

post #1 of 8
12/1/11 at 10:24pm
Thread Starter 

Business Insider recently posted more speculation around the continued rumor of Apple producing a real Apple HDTV. 

 

We have posted here before about this and the speculation around it.  This article goes a step farther with Apple analyst Gene Munster reiterating his belief that Apple is going to launch a TV next year making some bold comments at Ignition 2011, which was recently held in NYC.  If this was not enough, another analyst, Peter Misek of Jefferies also predicted that Apple will start production of Apple HDTV's this February, which he refers to as iTV. 

apple-tv.jpg

 

Gene isn't really stating anything that hasn't been speculated before, but this is actually coming from an analyst that tracks Apple. 

 

I have two Apple TV's.  I don't use them a lot because:

 

  • They don't actually play television
  • I have to switch inputs from my Windows Media Center Extender (Xbox 360) where I do get all my live and recorded TV.   Thus I have to consciously WANT something on the Apple TV, which if I want to rent a movie, it is easier for me to do that from the XBox 360, than switching inputs.

 

What I am starting to use my Apple TV more for is the ability to watch content from my iPad transmitted wirelessly to my Apple TV to my HDTV.  What am I watching that would be exclusive to my iPad that isn't on AppleTV already or content that is on my WMC extender or XBox Live subscription?  Hmmm, there is a boatload of video content.  The recent compelling thing for me is Korean soaps...  Viki has an iPad application that allow me to watch streamed Korean soaps (my wife is Korean and they are addictive) on my two HDTV's that have an Apple TV connected to them now.  Needless to say, this works really well as I rather would watch Viki on my HDTV than on my iPad or on my computer monitor. 

 

Also, the whole concept of having a device that interacts with the HDTV, and allows you to do things like get more information about what is on the TV, has been a very compelling concept for me.  If you can remember back to the format wars, I was a key proponent of HD DVD and one of the key features being interactivity.  Well, we had interactivity all wrong.  It wasn't supposed to be on the disc, it was supposed to be in a device that didn't even exist... a portable video device -- a tablet that was relatively cheap, with tons of support.  The iTV concept really could nail this.  If you look at what EBay is doing on the iPad today, you will get a better indication of what I am referring to here.  It's one of the exact scenarios that we demonstrated on HD DVD... "Watching your HD DVD movie, you see a really cool (watch, dress, TV, car, etc.) and you then have the ability to get more information about it and/or purchase it".  Well, turns out consumers didn't want to pause the dang movie to get that information and not many consumers had an ethernet connection to their HD DVD player (no wifi-wasn't a mandatory spec for HD DVD, just the ethernet connection).  Oh, just because I wanted more information on the latest car in the James Bond flick, didn't mean that my wife wanted to pause the movie for me to find out... Well, if we each had an iPad, with something like the EBay app, we would be able to independantly check that out or flag it so we could come back to it.  That's what I believe the iTV could do with the iPad and apps. 

 

Now, if Apple really did come out with a TV, I would expect that those TV's would have a quality standard that would be at the same quality level as their computer display monitors, which would pretty much mean it would meet my standards for color accuracy, black levels, gamma and color temperature.  Now if that came with the features of Apple TV, I think I would be pretty interested for all the integration that I would get with my existing four iPod Touches and two iPads...  That's something that I certainly wouldn't get with integration with my Xbox 360.  Hey Microsoft, maybe XBox TV?  :)

 

Of course, I am expecting something of the quality level of the recently release Sharp Elite LCD but with Apple built in. 

 

At any rate, because of the integration of content from the iPad to the HDTV, I would seriously consider getting an Apple iTV, solely because I trust the consumer experience with Apple and for me, there is a value prop there that I can't get any place else. 

 

Does anyone else think this way?  I guess people didn't think they would ever need a table either 5 years ago...  :)

 

 

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post #2 of 8
12/2/11 at 5:11am

Based on things I have read -- all of which are speculative -- major television

manufacturers are in panic mode about what may be coming out.

 

Furthermore, it is expected that the new display will be twice as expensive

as competing displays which if true (and I expect it will be), will be selling

to a very limited sect of the population devoted to buying anything Apple

no matter what the cost.

 

Apple doesn't put out anything subpar.  For that reason, I agree with 

you that they will be setting a new standard in whatever they release.

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post #3 of 8
12/2/11 at 5:53am
Do people actually think Apple is going to manufacture the set ? or just stick their front end on someone else's panel and driver boards like we've seen with Vizio, Sony, HP, Gateway, Sanyo, Toshiba, etc, etc ? (as well as the obvious marketing and house brand names)
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post #4 of 8
12/2/11 at 6:06am

I'll offer my very distinctly different perspective.

 

In contrast to probably 99% of the membership of HTF, I have found my TV viewing habits diminishing over the past few years.  I find myself watching less and less TV, and so the appeal of having access to "more" content, and having access to said content "anywhere" just does not appeal to me at all.  I use my DVR extensively simply because I never know when I'll have a chance to devote time to the few shows I do watch.

 

Since I don't watch much TV, when I do settle down for a movie or a show, it's a dedicated effort on my part to enjoy some entertainment.  I don't want distractions - I just want a nice, high quality presentation of a movie or show.  This is also the reason why streaming services haven't held much appeal to me - I'm too concerned over quality issues and "inconveniences" like buffering problems, or lack of quality multichannel audio that will ultimately diminish the experience.

 

I also should disclose that I am of the miniscule demographic that owns zero Apple products.  That's right.

 

I have no i-

- Phone

- Pad

- Pod

- Tunes

- Mac

- are there any others I missed?

 

But it's not that I'm "anti" Apple, it's more that on a personal level, I don't "get" the need for watching TV on ones phone or tablet while waiting in line at the bank, or sitting at the doctor's office, or... whatever.  It's just silly to me.  I listen to music in my car or on my computer at work, not while I'm walking down the street or ordering lunch.

 

I can barely find the time to watch the handful of TV shows I'm interested in, and even my scaled-back "2 DVDs per month" NetFlix subscription is starting to feel like it might be a waste.  Why do I need to access YouTube and Hulu on my TV when I can do that on my computer (which is a desktop, by the way, do they even make those anymore)?

 

When I think of it, I think back to the 90s and the advent of DVD.  The focus was on improving the quality of the presentation.  Surround sound receivers, multichannel digital audio, HD video - it was all an effort to make the experience better.

 

Then, the focus started shifting to convenience - often at the cost of quality.  Personally, I guess I'm opposed to making that change.  My primary concern is and continues to be quality.  The most recent shift is all about consolodation - one portal for EVERYTHING.  What if I don't use most of the "everything"?

 

On this matter, I'm pretty stubborn.  I don't want my house to revolve around TV and other "less social" forms of entertainment.  I enjoy playing games with my two young boys.  Sitting them down in front of the "big screen" in the basement is a special thing, and not something that happens very often.  The last thing I want to become is the "family" we saw at a restaurant the other day.  Dad with his head buried in his smart phone texting away, while Mom was doing something on her iPad and their kid was playing games on his PSP.  The three of them went out for some food and weren't speaking to each other!!!  So as far as I'm concerned, the less my TV does, the better.

 

So, after that rant...

 

No, I will not buy an AppleTV.  I like my "old fashioned" system with the nice surround sound receiver and disc-based media player.  If I want to get online content, I'll use my computer.  I have no ties to Apple or Apple products, so I won't get any benefit there.  If I'm interested in learning more about a movie, I generally wait until after watching the movie to get said information, and don't mind getting my butt up off the sofa and walking to my computer to get said information.

 

Boy, I really sound grumpy.  Maybe I should watch some dancing kitty videos on YouTube to lighten up.... laugh.gif

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post #5 of 8
12/2/11 at 6:37am
I hardly watch any TV any more either. I buy series once their entire run is in one box.

I'll remind everyone of a few things:
-BusinessInsider are generally jerks and among the worst pundits. What they are reporting here isn't even second hand.
http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/09/23/salmon-business-insider
-Gene Munster doesn't have a great track record either. He admits he has no specific evidence but a hunch and whispers
http://daringfireball.net/linked/2009/06/23/munster
-Steve and Post Steve era Apple doesn't generally get into something unless they are sure they can dominate. ATV is a sore exception but more of a tentative first shot than a statement.
-Even with all the iPhone leaks nobody really knew what the hell Apple had cooking up and it wasn't clear just how it would fundamentally change the industries that were perceived as impenetrable until steve pulled it out of his pocket on stage.

I think it's inevitable Apple will build a TV solution but I don't think it's what people are envisioning. Even bundling Siri+voice+touch controlled remotes+apps+timeshifiting shows doesn't get a revolution. And I don't think Apple will go whole hog into TV unless it's a revolution, not just an evolutionary step up from ATV.

The two biggest hurdles to this are:
-The cable cos. (duh)
-External inputs.

External inputs (for your wii, xbox, bluray etc) isn't all that hard to solve. A $25 box that converts any input into an airplay stream and you are done. Hell they can even make this an open standard and let the chinese build em as fast as they can for $10 a pop and will be built into Bluray players within 6 months.

But it's the end around the cable cos that's the real puzzler. Steve told Isaacson that he had cracked it. If true it will be the foundation which this device builds.

Apple's MO is to typically start small and build out from there. Can they launch this without apps this time? Can they make it a silo and then open it up? Or do they have to have a fully formed industry demolishing device fall from the sky deus ex machina all at once?
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post #6 of 8
12/2/11 at 10:14am
It just can't have gaming lag. If I can't play the Halo series effectively on it, no dice! biggrin.gif

Seriously, I held off upgrading my bedroom TV set this year in anticipation of something like this next year, so I'll be giving it close scrutiny when it comes out.
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post #7 of 8
12/2/11 at 10:27am

I also think their math is fundamentally wrong.. " a 40" LCD TV: $1199"  Are you kidding me?  Try closer to $499..

 

http://www.amazon.com/LG-42LV4400-42-Inch-1080p-LED-LCD/dp/B005JK01GO/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1322850306&sr=8-1

 

Comcast $85/mo

DVR: $299 + $12 a month..  (unless, of course, they like many americans just get a DVR bundled with their cable service and pay $90/month for it included)

 

..

 

The article makes so many calculation errors I can't think of it as a serious business piece.   Nobody is ever going to argue that Apple is going to say "we're so much better value then X" because if they fight that battle, people are going to say "Really?  I like my cable company..." or... "I need NFL Package DirectV"  etc...

 

The punditry here is terrible.

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post #8 of 8
12/3/11 at 10:51pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten View Post

I think it's inevitable Apple will build a TV solution but I don't think it's what people are envisioning. Even bundling Siri+voice+touch controlled remotes+apps+timeshifiting shows doesn't get a revolution. And I don't think Apple will go whole hog into TV unless it's a revolution, not just an evolutionary step up from ATV.

The two biggest hurdles to this are:
-The cable cos. (duh)
-External inputs.

 


I was describing the revolutionary step in the original post, it takes advertising to a new level because Apple is starting to own an ecosystem.  Add in the concept of an iStore to sell everything that is being watched and you have another huge cash cow.  Keep in mind that Apple has sold 250M iOS devices.  4M in the first 3 days of the iPhone 4S launch.  They have paid out $3B to developers from iOS application monetization.  Now, take QVC to the next level (or test out what EBay is doing with their iPad application now for TV) and see what the future can hold with an integrated iTV and the iPhone/iPad.

 

Now, Apple isn't the only one that you could say is thinking along the scenario I listed above.  Look at the $100M acquisition that MS just did for XBox Live services.  If any of you have used Shazam, take that to the next level of purchasing and you have why I believe Apple would want to do an iTV. They one the phone, the music, the tablet, (i.e. 1' and 2' experiences), why not take the 10' experience also?

 

I don't see why external inputs and cable co's have anything to do with having that scenario.  It's no different than the wireless carriers who were lining up to be the first to carry the iPhone.  iPhone just being on AT&T certainly didn't restrain from taking over that market.  Remember that the cable co's subscribers base is declining....  Any thing to boost that is something that they are going to be excited about, probably to the point that they would make it so that the consumer could ditch the dang set top box.

 

At any rate, there is a revolution that someone is going to take advantage of.  My opinion is that a revolution isn't going to be won with a plug in device to an existing TV... It's gotta be an end to end experience, which Apple pretty much dominates by owning the hardware and the software (and everything else in between).  I don't know anyone else better position to pull that off. 

 

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