The official 83rd Academy Awards Nomination and Predictions Thread

HOW COULD THEY LEAVE OFF... Just kidding.

I like the nominations more than the awards because you get a nice array of quality movies rather than saying that X is better than Y.

Kind of a weak year in terms of performances and films. 

Julianne Moore got the short end of the stick (meaning, she did a lot of heavy lifting in "TKAAR" and probably just missed out on a best supporting actress nomination.  But that's the more competitive acting category, as I would be very surprised if Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, and Christian Bale did not win their categories.

The main contest will be between "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech" for best picture, though I really hope Fincher gets the Directing oscar (not sure if Aronofsky has a shot this year, but I can't really see Hooper taking prize).  Poor Christopher Nolan, got the Oscar snub for directing.

I think Sorkin is a shoo-in for his adapted screenplay for "The Social Network", while the race is closer for original screenplay between "The King's Speech" and "The Kids are All Right".  But was surprised to see no adapted screenplay nomination for "Black Swan" (I think it'd fall under adapted, but perhaps it would go towards original screenplay, but it wasn't going to beat "The Social Network" anyway).

I'll be curious to see if Cinematography goes to Matthew Labatique for "Black Swan", or if Pfister or Deakins walks away with the oscar.

Editing is a toss-up between "Black Swan" and "The Social Network".  But "The King's Speech" could sneak in there.  "Inception" got snubbed in this category, perhaps.

While I think "Toy Story 3" gets best animated feature, "How to Train Your Dragon" was a better time at the movies for me.

No love for Clint Mansell's work in "Black Swan", or Daft Punk in "Tron Legacy".  (I've since been informed that neither had enough original musical content to the scoring, so there you go.)

The old guard of the academy love a film like "The King's Speech", which is what "The Social Network" has to overcome to win BP.

As far as I'm concerned, "The Fighter" was an incomplete film, so it's in the lower half of the top 10 nominees.

Judging by the way True Grit sprung forward, you've got to watch out for a sweep there.

I'd be truly shocked if "True Grit" got any of the major awards (acting, directing, BP, editing).

Based purely on my recollection, I would suggest that Supporting Actress is one of the most generous categories with regards to first time nominees and may bode well for Hailee Steinfeld.  I have no statistics to back up that claim, just my impressions from watching the Awards through the years.  (Tatum O'Neal - Paper Moon, Marissa Tomei - My Cousin Vinny, Anna Paquin - The Piano, Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls; were all first time nominees who won the Award for their respective years.)

- Walter.

There's nothing here horribly bad like last year but I do think it shows that 2010 was a fairly weak year. 

The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION?  I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT.

The Supporting Actress does seem to be the big one.  No Mila Kunis.  No Moore.  The Supporting Actor race is also missing the likes of Timberlake and Douglas who many thought was going to get noms.  I don't mind Douglas missing out on WALL STREET as I thought his performance in SOLITARY MAN was a lot better.

I have a lot of movie-watchin' to do. . .

(Not to mention someone just spoiled the end of Inception. :( :( :( )

Dissappointments:

I admit, I didn't care for "The Fighter" nearly as much as the academy, and while I'm not surprised, just "eh".   It's good to see Michelle Williams nominated for her fantastic turn in "Blue Valentine", which I thought was sensational.  I have mixed feelings on how 10 nominated films will work out, just as I did last year.   I think it divides the vote and makes it easier for a film to win without a real overwhelming feeling of "this is it" which is maybe what they want.  On the plus side, while there is all this fury about The Social Network and The Kings Speech, I'd love to see the vote divided an an outsider win  ( I will root for the "has no chance, but will be the film longest remembered from this year, TS3")

Despite my dismiss of "The Fighter", Christian Bale should walk with his category, he was fantastic.  How Mark Ruffalo got nominated over Justin Timberlake is crazy.. "The Kids are All Right" could get him a nod but not Moore?   I thought Ruffalo's character was basically scenery - he did a managable job, but the script wasn't really written to give him much, and he did what was there - which is what he should do.   But it wasn't the kind of performance that you waited for when he was onscreen.. Timberlake made the restaurant scenes in "The Social Network" some of the best moments, guiding the characters to conclusions in his strange world.  In fact, at the end, I was shocked and immediately went home to google to find out how much stock his real-life model owned in Facebook, etc.

I don't know, just that.. Good to see the academy remember "Winter's Bone"...

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattCR 

Dissappointments:

 

I admit, I didn't care for "The Fighter" nearly as much as the academy, and while I'm not surprised, just "eh".

That's sort of how I felt about The King's Speech. It's certainly a good movie and while it has great performances, I still don't think it's deserving of a BP win.

I've seen 7 of the Best Film nominees and the only one I'm rooting for is Inception but without a director nod it hasn't got a chance.

I'm rooting for Jeff Bridges and Natalie Portman though I'm not a huge fan of either film.

It's good to see Tron Legacy get some recognition, not a great film but I did like the sound and the visuals.

Best animated film for me was How to Train Your Dragon but Pixar has a lock on that category. :)

Biggest upset was Chris Nolan being left out of the directing noms. Oh well.

Isn't it kind of obvious that based on the directing noms, those are really the only true contenders for BP?  Should Directing be expanded as well?  Or, does this just point out how ridiculous 10 BP noms really is?

Other then that, I think it is a decent list of noms in every category.  The only thing I disagree with is Inception getting a score nom.  I thought that score was one of Zimmer's most boring efforts to date, he really just seems to be going through the motions these days.  I know they were disqualified but, the scores to Black Swan or True Grit deserve to be there more then Inception IMO.  I guess Zimmer is the new John Williams, meaning he will get a nom every year he does a score, deserving or not.

I know it probably will not win but, I think True Grit is the best movie of the year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Elliott 

 

The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION?  I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT.

Exactly what I was saying in another thread.

At first glance I actually thought the title of this thread was "pretentious thread" instead of predictions. 

I'm disappointed that "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World" got completely ignored in technical areas.  Most of the rest of the list is the usual "ho hum" for me. 

I'd be shocked too if "True Grit" got anything.  I really liked the movie, but there were some truly original movies this year that deserve it more.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Elliott 

The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION?  I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT.

While I agree that Nolan was robbed of a Best Directing nod, I think the Coens work on "True Grit" is underestimated. When you consider that both Portis's novel and the Coens' screenplay use a completely different pattern of speech than contemporary American English, it's amazing that they were able to get realistic and natural delivery and performances from the entire cast. The direction is less flashy than other works this year (or even others of their own films) but it, for the most part, does exactly what it needs to.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Russell G 

I'm disappointed that "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World" got completely ignored in technical areas.  Most of the rest of the list is the usual "ho hum" for me.

I hope Banksy wins - could be the most interesting moment of the telecast!

True Grit won't win Best Picture because it was not nominated for Film Editing. The last Best Picture without a Film Editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980.

My list of "snubs":

Christopher Nolan - Directing

Daft Punk - Original Score

Inception - Editing

Shutter Island - Editing (and some others but I know it had no chance due to the February release)

Ted Levine - Supporting Actor - Shutter Island (see above; if there was ever a one-scene performance that deserved a Supporting Acting nom, it was Ted Levine in the Jeep Scene in Shutter Island)

Waiting for Superman - Feature Documentary

Otherwise I think it's a good slate of nominees.

Some early thoughts on who I think will win:

Picture & Director  - Race is clearly between The Social Network and The King's Speech, with the latter gaining traction as time goes on. Same with Director (Fincher and Hooper). I can see a split there - Fincher w/ Director, King's Speech w/ Picture. Other nominees need not apply

Acting awards  - They're getting more and more predictable every year. Firth/Portman/Bale/Leo are the clear favorites. However, I could see Bening getting Actress since she's "due" and has been overlooked before. I also think Supporting Actress is more of a two-way race between Leo and Steinfeld (the Academy loves to reward young first-nominee actresses in the Supporting Actress category). This makes me wonder - when was the last legitimate major upset in an acting category? Adrien Brody for The Pianist in 2002? It's been a while, and it's starting to get a bit boring because of it.

Screenplays - The King's Speech and The Social Network. Major, major upset if either of these do not win.

Cinematography - I think Deakins finally gets his Oscar for True Grit. However, if King's Speech or Social Network start sweeping, look out.

Film Editing - 127 Hours deserves it the most of the nominees, but it won't win. Social Network / King's Speech, sweep dependent.

Art Direction - Probably King's Speech. Academy loves period pieces in this category.

Costume Design - See above.

Makeup - Eh, toss up.

Score - The Social Network. Unless King's Speech sweeps. Maybe Zimmer since the music of Inception is so integral to the story.

Song - Another toss-up.

Sound Editing - TRON: Legacy should win, but it won't. Probably Inception.

Sound Mixing - Whichever is sweeping - Social Network or King's Speech

Visual Effects - Inception

Documentary Feature - Exit Through the Gift Shop

Short categories - No one ever knows. Day and Night was excellent, though.

Foreign Language Film - Biutiful has the edge over Dogtooth. But since those who vote must see all the films, one never knows.

Animated Feature - A closer race than probably suspected, but Toy Story 3 will win.

I will somewhat agree with the bolded part but on the whole I still can't see why some people are calling this one of the greatest movies in the history of cinema.  I'm personally glad it's doing so well at the box office.  The word of mouth certainly got "new" people to go see the movie but the majority of them appear to be saying it's good but not great.  I know the "it's great" crowd is a large one but I just don't see it. 

I plan on watching the movie again just to see if there's something I missed but while I'd agree they got the job done I'm still a little shy about saying they did something great.  I really didn't see anything that was an improvement over the original picture and I'd say even their last picture (A SERIOUS MAN) had better work done by them. 

I think if I were behind INCEPTION, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, 127 HOURS or WINTER'S BONE then I'd be upset. 

I'm also a little shocked that Polanski and THE GHOST WRITER did so poorly.  It seemed like it would be a lock for at least one of the Best Picture noms. 

Jeff Bridges is the only other one I'd throw a red flag at.  DiCaprio x2 could have been selected or at least moved him to the Supporting Actor.  He certainly wasn't the lead whereas the Supporting Actress was the lead and got dumped down, which in return took a spot from Moore.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adam Lenhardt 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Elliott 

The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION?  I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT.

 

While I agree that Nolan was robbed of a Best Directing nod, I think the Coens work on "True Grit" is underestimated. When you consider that both Portis's novel and the Coens' screenplay use a completely different pattern of speech than contemporary American English, it's amazing that they were able to get realistic and natural delivery and performances from the entire cast. The direction is less flashy than other works this year (or even others of their own films) but it, for the most part, does exactly what it needs to.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Elliott 

I will somewhat agree with the bolded part but on the whole I still can't see why some people are calling this one of the greatest movies in the history of cinema.  I'm personally glad it's doing so well at the box office.  The word of mouth certainly got "new" people to go see the movie but the majority of them appear to be saying it's good but not great.  I know the "it's great" crowd is a large one but I just don't see it. 

 

I plan on watching the movie again just to see if there's something I missed but while I'd agree they got the job done I'm still a little shy about saying they did something great.  I really didn't see anything that was an improvement over the original picture and I'd say even their last picture (A SERIOUS MAN) had better work done by them.

 

-----

 

Jeff Bridges is the only other one I'd throw a red flag at.  DiCaprio x2 could have been selected or at least moved him to the Supporting Actor.  He certainly wasn't the lead whereas the Supporting Actress was the lead and got dumped down, which in return took a spot from Moore.

I think True Grit is great, but I also think A Serious Man is a better overall film, mostly because it's a harder film to pull off well. True Grit has more going on "under the surface" than the general reviews give it credit for, but it's not quite in the "I was blown away" category.

DiCaprio may be his generation's Peter O'Toole. Of the films I've seen this year his performance in Shutter Island was the best. I really think Paramount screwed that film's awards ability over with the February release, though it was clearly the better short-term financial decision.

I'm not sure where the line is for original vs. non-original music in the score category.  I understand the disqualification of True Grit and Black Swan, as they are heavily (albeit skillfully) based on non-original material.  As for Inception, it does use the pulse from that Edith Piaf song in several places at various speeds, but there's still a lot of "original" material there (I use the term loosely, as it sounds incredibly like much of Zimmer & Balfe's other recent output).  However, didn't Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross rework portions of the Nine Inch Nails album "Ghosts I-IV" for the score for The Social Network?  It wasn't like the whole score was based on it, but I wonder if this was considered.

At the end of the day, a composer has to do what's right for the movie, regardless of awards eligibility, but it's still funny to see where the Academy draws the line and where they don't.

Here's hoping Inception wins Best Picture but I'm going to say The King's Speech takes it.  As for the other categories.

Best Actor - Colin Firth

Best Actress - Anette Benning

Supporting Actor - Christian Bale

Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo

Director - David Fincher

All subject to change after I see True Grit and The Fighter.

Inception's not winning a single award...not even the tech categories.  They'll be split between the King's Speech, True Grit, and the Social Network.

Frankly, with the editing and directing snubs, Inception's filler at the Academy Awards this year and it's damn shame.  It's only there to attract younger viewers who think Inception has a shot.  It has no shot...not even in the category it should win, which is Original Screenplay.  That's also going to the King's Speech.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryan Tuck 

I'm not sure where the line is for original vs. non-original music in the score category.  I understand the disqualification of True Grit and Black Swan, as they are heavily (albeit skillfully) based on non-original material.  As for Inception, it does use the pulse from that Edith Piaf song in several places at various speeds, but there's still a lot of "original" material there (I use the term loosely, as it sounds incredibly like much of Zimmer & Balfe's other recent output).  However, didn't Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross rework portions of the Nine Inch Nails album "Ghosts I-IV" for the score for The Social Network?  It wasn't like the whole score was based on it, but I wonder if this was considered.

 

At the end of the day, a composer has to do what's right for the movie, regardless of awards eligibility, but it's still funny to see where the Academy draws the line and where they don't.

Bryan,

That's an interesting observation.  When I saw the film a few weeks ago, I couldn't separate the hymns (non-original material, if you will) from the original material too easily, because I was greatly captivated by the hymn tunes (which I've sung, played, and analyzed over the years) that dominated the film's sound world.  There were some wonderful orchestral passages (particularly some which were very modal as opposed to tonal) during a couple of the extended prairie scenes that were to me quite captivating.  But I'm going to have to see this film again before I make any meaningful statements on the instrumentation, orchestration, or compositional properties.
 

I'd pick True Grit for Best Picture, but I'm pretty sure that the entertaining, but shallow, frat boy movie The Social Network will take the award, no matter how undeserving it is of it. My other choice would probably be Inception but that film didn't have a snowball's chance in Hell of ever winning a Best Picture Oscar.

As for the Coen's version of True Grit not improving on the original....I'd disagree. The Coen film makes the original look like a Made-for-TV movie.

Hans Zimmer talked about his Inception score and nomination with Movieline, here's an excerpt.

http://www.movieline.com/2011/01/hans-zimmer-reacts-to-his-inception-oscar-nomination-and-christopher-nolans-lack-of-an-oscar-nominat.php

I wonder if Hans Zimmer would get sued for winning an award for a score he probably didn't write?

I agree with Hans!  I'm one of those who loved "Inception", I liked the characters everyone seems to loath, I liked the idea and in IMAX it was one of the most visually splendid films I've seen in years.  I thought it very original as well, and I don't recall any previous film that played with time like it did.  Of course, it's a bit too Sci Fi so it wont win...  :S

My picks are these:

Best Picture: The Kings Speech.  Hollywood fears the internet, so this will beat out "The Social Network".

Best Director:  David Fincher, because they have to give The Social Network something and it is a great looking picture.

Best Actor: Colin Firth, he has a british accent, that makes him a better actor then the rest.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, because it's the closest to a handicapped supporting role.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman, for giving the old school academy their first boners in 10 years.

Best Supporting Actress: Hailiee Steinfeld, she's a kid and actually the lead actress, it's a lock.

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3.

Art Direction: True Grit, it's old timey and american so it will get the period piece nod.

Cinematography: The Kings Speech, I don;t have a reason other then it will win best picture.

Documentary Feature: Retrepo, it's about American soldiers in war, it's a lock. (it's a pretty good doc too.)

Documentary Short - Poster Girl, sounds sexy, that's all they need to hear since no one actually see these films...

Film Editing: 127 hours, and it will be the big surprise award.

Sound Editing: Toy Story 3

Sound Mixing: Inception, this will be the throw the big money maker a bone award.

Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network, since it wont get best picture.

Original Screenplay: The Kings Speech

NOTE: hardly any of these would be my personal choices, I just figure this is how it will all go down.