The future of BD and physical media? - Page 2

Again I don't think we are, for the most part, talking about downloading, but rather streaming. I don't think anyone is going to be downloading anything at all. The "device" is already here. Many new TVs have Netflix streaming (and other services) built in! No need for a player at all. For those that already own a good HDTV, most players now have Neflix included.  I also just read that many manufactures this year are including a Netflix button on the remote itself. No need to navigate to anything, just push the button and there is your Neflix interface.

 

Doug

Blu-ray Thrives, Despite Growing Digital Bandwagon

 

I think this article provides the best look at the situation right now, simply because it is the only one I have seen recently that provides real numbers.  (I'm sure there are others, and the yahoo link is dead so I don't know about that one.)

 

The article mentions that consumption split is now 88% physical media, 12% streaming.  It also mentions that while streaming gained 2% in the revenue split (2009 was 90% / 10%), and is still has greater revenue than Blu-ray, Blu-ray's revenue in dollars is growing at a faster rate. I do wish this article broke down the streaming stats to purchases, paid rentals, and viewings as part of subscription services like Netflix or Hulu.

 

Digital distribution is just starting to become mainstream.  It is only recently that Netflix, Amazon VOD, Vudu, etc, are starting to become common place in TV/Home Theater connected devices.  It is too soon to make good guesses on how many people care about owning a physical disc, poorer quality of streaming media, etc.

 

Personally, I hope Internet streaming becomes a replacement for Cable/Fios TV. (As in the the end user subscribes to Internet based services themselves, not ISPs and content providers trying to force a cable model on the Internet ESPN 360 style.)  For ownership and rental, I certainly hope it does not become a replacement for physical media.

I thought this was an interesting article.

 

http://www.slate.com/id/2273314/

 

20% of the internet bandwidth is being used streaming movies from Netflix.

the future is streaming FOR SURE. just as it has changed music, it will transform the tv/movie industry. it's only a matter of time.

 

i can't even begin to imagine what a nextgen disc medium would look like. 4k-3D? don't need it @home. 32-bit/384kHz lossless 22.22 codec? i would LOVE IT, but i don't think it's going to happen.

 

also, the next TRUE revolution imho should be higher color depths. imho 8-bit is terrible, i know we're just getting caught up there... but i would like to see 10, 12 or 16-bit color depths true 4:4:4 would be totally awesome. certain HDTVs support it, HDMI standards are opening wide their support... but the content has yet to change. whether on disc or streaming... this will be awesome if they can achieve it.

 

So certain are you.

 

If you had predicted that delivery on physical media would be phased out eventually, it might be hard to argue.  Even going as far to put the "FOR SURE" assessment on DVD eventually becoming a thing of the past would be hard to argue.  And maybe physical media rentals.

 

 

People still mostly purchase music, and keep it as a file on their computer or portable device.  Digital delivery and streaming are very different things.  Playback is from that file, not streamed from a vendor's central server on each listen.

 

Some other things happened with music that are either not applicable to movies, or are not likely to happen.

1. With digital distribution came the ability to get a single track without purchasing a full album.  Having a single for every song is just not practical with physical distribution, and people just don't want to purchase 12 songs to get one song they like.
2. Music became DRM-free.  Sure, before that, iTunes and the iPod, were a force to be reckoned with, but it had not "transformed" the industry.   It took ubiquitous device support for purchases from multiple stores, and the knowledge that purchases would remain accessible before the industry, and not just the Apple ecosystem, was transformed.

 

I think a sense of ownership that is incompatible with the streaming model is required for the purchase market.  That sense of ownership cannot be achieved if the company running that streaming server deciding to stop that service can make that purchase worth less than the bytes used to store the e-mail message confirming it.  Even standardizing streaming formats and ubiquitous device support won't change that.

 

Hollywood makes too much money not necessarily from physical media, but from people who want to own and collect.  It is unlikely they will jeopardize that revenue to transition to a streaming model, as much as they may want that centralized control.  Even a transition to digital distribution would need ubiquitous device support for purchases from multiple services to be industry transforming.  I don't think movies will ever be sold or streamed DRM-free, but people must have confidence in their purchases. It would require a nearly universal DRM scheme that is too engrained to fail in "Plays for Sure" fashion.  (No pun intended.  )   

 

Streaming might be fine for the rental market where people only care about the next couple of days, but without that sense of ownership, the closest the purchase market is likely to go is digital distribution.  That is still largely a physical media model, not a streaming model.

I really hate the idea that one day physical media will be a thing of the past, like many of you I love having the BD case in my hands, to keep on a shelf and have the artwork etc. The idea that my movies only exist in the ether is, well, cockeyed lol.

 

I just bought a BD player that streams NF and can tell you that if they plan to go that way exclusively one day they had better get their act together when it comes to quality. Most of the stuff they have is of low quality, not in their OAR's and the films and shows they do have in HD are only 720p.

 

Add to that they can't stream Dolby Digital 5.1 or DTS 5.1 let alone DD True HD and DTS MA. I read that they will begin to stream 5.1 later this year via DD Plus but that's not going to cut it, either.

 

I realize that NF streaming is aimed more towards a more casual base of the populace but if they want to keep me as a customer and expect me to stream they better step up their game because if not I'm out. That said I do like how user friendly the interface is on the player for NF, that's about the only good thing I can say about it.

 

I don't know that I'd worry all that much about it for the simple reason that the necessary infrastructure to do it will never be there, except in large metropolitan areas -- and not even all of those. Don't even think of saying it will be done wireless.  The entire broadcast spectrum would have to be devoted to it.  To wire everyone with FIOS or even standard cable is prohibitively expensive, so that won't happen either. 

 

Music is a much smaller file, but trying sending a no-loss WAV  (as opposed to a lossy mp3) file over anything but a trunk line.  While you wait, order a pizza and enjoy your dinner.

 

Of course, it could happen if the studios want to write off 20 percent of the country that lives in highly rural areas without the population density to make cable profitable.

 

And good luck waiting for THAT to happen!

Couldn't it also happen if the industry concludes that 98% of the masses just don't give much of a shit about the trade-offs in quality?

After 2020 physical media will be something of the past. We will gain more space in our house and all the movies we love will be always with us.
The only thing that probably will change will be the frame/rate of the movie that will change to 48 frames for second (only for the new productions).

 

Actually, it's not as simple as the "large metropolitan areas" thinking.  It'll probably take forever for all of New York City (and probably various other major cities w/ a significant history of being densely populated, etc.) to get there.

 

There are many parts of the NYC area that still can't even get basic DSL service even though it's become a fairly ubiquitous offering at <$20/month now.  I've been using Verizon's basic DSL for over a decade now, but my mother, who lives in another part of town that would presumably have less difficulty for infrastructure rework, still cannot get such service.  Near as I can tell, for broadband service, her only option seems to be Time Warner Roadrunner, and she's not about to spend the $$$ for an entire TW package just to be able to do some streaming.

 

Considering a large part of the appeal of streaming really fits much more w/ the rental market, which probably is more budget-consicous than the retail sales market, that can end up being a catch-22 for the business model and a large segment of the population who would otherwise be interested in streaming, ie. having to pay the premium for good enough broadband service (assuming it's even available at all) that's otherwise not needed for regular web browsing, etc.

 

Certainly, I have zero interest in paying for premium broadband service just for the purpose of streaming HQ video, not that such video would actually rival good Blu-ray quality anyway.  Heck, I don't even subscribe to cable/sat right now as it is and opt to just go OTA broadcast and buy/rent discs that I actually want to own/watch.  At this point, my <$20/month basic DSL service is still good enough in general -- although something faster would be nice -- and I'd rather stick w/ Verizon for regular phone service than give Time Warner a try.  At some point, they will just end up trickling down what used to be premium service down to us basic level customers anyway -- that's just how their business models work -- so it's not like I need to worry all that much that my service will not be good enough for essential stuff for the forseeable future anyway.  So don't fix what ain't actually broke.  

 

_Man_

I am of mixed minds on the physical versus other delivery methods.

 

While I enjoy collecting, I am sure I could do without physical copies of 80%+ of the titles I now own which were in most cases very expensive rentals. Physical media is prone to failure (albeit perhaps in a small percentage, but I have lost a good 50+ discs that I know of to rot on DVD and LD through no fault of my own) or being superceded by newer versions, plus there is the issue of storage/handling which becomes very apparent when moving. Having a physical thing on hand is fine, but as technology marches on, it becomes redundant and of limited use/value. A virtual library would suit me fine as long as it was always accessible. For the amount of time I view a large percentage of my collection, a monthly rental fee would have been far better than the $10-40 per title (and more on LD)  I have paid over the years.

 

That said, the current streaming quality is not something I want permanently. For casual viewing of many titles it's fine, but it certainly isn't something I'd be willing to pay much for. For a select number of titles, the quality offered by Bluray is something I'm willing to spend more on, but even then I bargain hunt. If I could get the same quality in a virtual form that I can guarantee won't degrade over time, I'd be quite happy with that.

I'm not quite completely married to collecting physical media either -- certainly not as much as some others here -- but yeah, for me to move away from that, seems like a lot of things actually need to change/improve very substantially, and those things just don't seem likely to happen in the forseeable (near?) future.

 

In the meantime, I'd rather not waste time w/ wishful thinking about that "perfect" distant future where everything that needs to happen actually does.    Just enjoy what I can already have now and in the forseeable future and spend that other extra time/effort/etc. on other more important things...

 

_Man_

I'm a physical media type of guy. I like having the disc to do with as I please. I can rip it, store it on my NAS to stream throughout the house, convert it to play on my iPhone, or burn a copy for the DVD player in the car. Plus I like looking at my shelf and seeing all the great flicks I've bought over the years.

Well, all things being roughly equal, I'd much rather have the physical media for my collection too -- and just rip the content or whatever else at my own leisure, etc.

 

That's what I *still* do w/ music recordings for instance -- much rather just buy a CD than pay for MP3 downloads even though I end up doing much of my listening on some sort of MP3 portable these days (just because my alone time w/ the stereo system is very limited nowadays).  Maybe that (ie. time w/ the stereo system) might change after we move (to a bigger house) later this summer...

 

But yeah, if I'm actually moving away from physical media, it'll probably take some convincing, eg. truly substantial cost savings w/out losing any quality, a clear sense of (fair use) ownership at least roughly in line w/ physical media, maybe if my circumstance changes so much as to make collecting physical media no longer viable, loss of interest in quality presentation in the home, etc.  And at this point, I'm not convinced those things will *ever* happen in enough of a right combo, but never say never I guess...

 

_Man_

I believe that there are enough physical media collectors around to make Blu-ray and its successors a viable market for decades to come.   I don't see our desire to improve realism and beauty stopping with Blu-ray.  As 4K projectors become more commonplace in our local theaters people will want them in their homes.  This will lead to something like an ultra-violet disc to hold the data.

So decades from now will our living rooms contain a Holodeck and the physical media resemble Superman's green crystal?  I'll be dead before it happens but the journey should be a blast!

I love physical media, but I have to say, when I've streamed HDX films on Vudu, they look and sound pretty great on a 58" plasma display.  No hesitations, rock-solid image, excellent sound.  I'm sure someone here will explain why it doesn't measure up to my blu-rays, but I can't see that it's going to be a distinction with a difference for most people.

In some ways, I agree with you, in that a lot of what I've streamed in HD on Netflix looks and sounds good, it is not a pristine as Blu-ray. There are still compression artifacts, and the quality of the video is very dependent on your internet connection's downstream speed. Most videos I've watched almost always start out in standard def, achieving HD about a minute or two into the presentation, and occasionally switches back and forth at least a few times during the movie, and that is with a 10 Mbps downstream service from Time-Warner (which averages around 5 Mbps). Also, not all films are HD, and not all HD titles are 5.1, and if they are, the audio is 640 kbps Dolby Digital Plus.
 

 

Another consideration when it comes to a downloadable/streaming content situation are bandwidth costs. While it may not be prohibitive right now, should there be a sizable increase in the number of people using these services, ISPs will no doubt be looking to increase their revenue by charging higher bandwidth fees, imposing limits, or throttling connections (which is already happening here).

Video quality is also a consideration. Depending on the title, I may forgive a less than pristine presentation of a title I have marginal interest in (want to watch it, but don't necessarily need to own it) if I'm only paying pennies for the service. If that fee becomes a few dollars per title, then my expectations are going to change - why would I be happy paying $5 to view a film in less than pristine quality once when I could own the best quality for a few dollars more? Netflix quality at $8/month is one thing, at $20 or $30 another.

 

There is also the long term availability of titles. I would be more than annoyed getting half way through a series to come back and find it no longer available. There are a number of considerations when it comes to how media is accessed, whether its an on demand service, something we get to store locally or an online archive. All have merit depending on the situation, but there are compromises there somewhere, including the end cost of owning media (cost per viewing, likelihood of upgrades/failure/format extinction). I don't think its an either/or question, at least not for me.

Ultimately I don't think it's really a question of having a disc/tape/card/whatever.  It's a question of control.  You can take you copy down off the shelf any time of day and watch it, or just watch a bit of it, whenever you like.  Collecting movies is about being able to do that with beloved movies.  It's not about watch-once-and-throw-away.  It's certainly not about PPV

 

Having shelves of physical copies is a double-edged sword - on the one hand you can actually touch your copy of a movie, but it occupies space in your home.  In a fire or other disaster, it can be destroyed.  While I've always preferred having my own disc/tape/card/whatever, having an iPod and a rudimentary video server system has taught me that I can get the same sense of collecting movies, etc. from having a catalogue of the server content.  I don't actually need the discs.  The content's the thing, but I still need to feel the same degree of control I have over the copy on the server as I do with the copy on the shelf.

 

I couldn't, and wouldn't want anything to do with not having local storage.  Not just in relation to movies.  The idea of Cloud Computing leaves me cold, as does streaming (which is fine for head colds and catch-up television or movie rental).  I'd hate to have to rely on somebody else for the security of my data.  I take responsibility for the health of my discs, hard drives and the like, and it's my job to look after my collection.  I get an odd sense of security from my collection - based on that ability to take a movie down off the shelf at will.  I'd lose that feeling even if I could just as easily call up the same title from a remote server service.  I'd be even more queasy about personal information and work being stored in a similar fashion.

While I agree that it is coming,  someday,  that day really isn't any time soon.

 

The main issue is,  the [i]internet[/i] doesn't have the bandwidth to support this on any large scale.  The internet wasn't designed for large-scale sustained transfers,  especially not to tens or hundreds of millions simultaneously.  It won't take long to saturate the backbones and local hubs at that scale.  Especially when you're talking 100 million people simultaneously trying to watch the latest blockbuster when the industry shifts away from theaters,  which IMO will occur about the same time.

 

The secondary issue is storage space.  Just for movies we're talking prohibitively large arrays in hundreds of terras.  Since this is also going to involve TV,  because the market will be there,  the space requirements are going to be a great deal higher. 

 

It's going to happen,  definitely,  but I think we're 5-7 years out yet.

I think the only way that would work outside of some miraculous overhaul of the internet is basically for the ISP to either run some sort of very substantial, smart caching proxies designed specifically for HQ a/v streaming *OR* for the streaming host servers to be installed either right at the gateway to the internet or somewhere before it, ie. at the local ISP location, at some shared point for a group of end-user service points (like done for cable modem), at your own home, etc.

 

You basically just cannot expect for everyone to have his/her individual a/v stream served cache-free by some relatively centralized hosting service sitting somewhere on the internet.  That's just not going to happen at HQ datarates -- I'm not even sure how feasible that would *ever* be at say 5Mbps sustained datarates once you ramp it up to that kind of scale unless certain kinds of tricks are used like I mentioned above.

 

But then again, that's probably why the future will have all the major ISPs either partnering closely or merging w/ major content providers and/or streaming services.  We're certainly heading in that direction as we speak...

 

_Man_

I don't know if the same situation is rearing its ugly head anywhere else, but becuase of the duopoly that exists in terms of infrastructure in Canada, the concept of usage based billing has received approval of the CRTC (which was subsequently rescinded). In a nutshell, the idea is to "cap" data usage and then bill higher-than-average users. If it succeeds, this will kill Netflix et al in Canada faster than you can say Avatar. We already pay the highest rates for high speed in the Western world and now this? I will not be switching to streaming anytime soon.

I don't know about the regulatory aspect of such things, but how would that be different from the various wireless carriers (at least here in the USA) going w/ tiered pricing for their wireless data plans?  Maybe that's really just a Canadian thing -- that is, these service providers don't seem to be limited in that way over here in the USA.

 

Of course, they also once-upon-a-time charged usage-based rates for "regular" internet services too.  Actually, they still do in different form, eg. different rates for different speed/bandwidth services.  I only pay ~$17/month (plus whatever usual, seemingly ridiculous taxes and fees) for my basic (A)DSL service from Verizon.  If I want something that makes NF streaming at all viable, I'd probably need to pay another $10-20/month, if not more, and even then, it'd probably only be good enough to consistently sustain on-demand DVD quality streaming, nothing more -- and that's assuming I can actually get that where I live from Verizon DSL service; otherwise, it'll probably cost more to switch to Time Warner Cable (since I don't otherwise want cable/sat service) or Verizon FiOS, if I can even get that anytime soon.

 

Anyway, even if there are regulations restricting certain such practices, I'm sure big corporate will find ways around them, if they find it necessary in order to arrive at a solid, if not outrageous, bottomline -- and to some extent, you really cannot blame them for that.  Sometimes, such regulatory restrictions really aren't the right answer to such problems.  There's really no free lunch afterall...

 

_Man_

The NYT had an article about this topic yesterday:

 

"Goodbye, DVD. Hello, Future."

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/06/movies/homevideo/06dvds.html?_r=1&ref=movies

 

The article sees a world in which blu-rays, MODs, and electronic delivery live side-by-side. It's got an interesting description of how people viewed older movies before VHS. I also found it interesting that the video quality of direct electronic delivery (streaming, downloads) is considered the equivalent of VHS. 

Missed that.  Thanks for the link!!

 

I also liked this part (emphasis mine, of course):

 

Blu-ray discs, introduced in 2006, offer 5 to 10 times as much space for data storage as a standard-definition DVD. They have superior sound and image quality as well as a range of bells and whistles — from social networking interfaces to elaborate games — designed to make the experience of watching a movie more “active” for twitchy 21st-century audiences.

 

 

They clearly haven't seen a VHS tape recently!

 

Doug

 

I think it will be somewhat sooner than that. Netflix expects to be out of the DVD business in about 2 years. In fact they expect streaming to be about 60% of their business next year.  I don't see blockbuster making it another 2 years. Hollywood video is gone. That pretty much just leaves red box for rentals, and they only carry hot new releases. If you want to rent anything other than something that came out in the last 3 months, streaming is pretty much going to be your only choice.

 

I don't know about where you live, but here the cable and telephone companies have been in a race to expand bandwidth and speed. While my cable company does have a teared system as far as pricing goes, you don't have to be in the top level to be able to stream HD video. (HD streams at between 5 and 8 mbps) Easily in the second level of a 4 level system here.

 

Doug