BD will be the last physical medium IMHO. What will happen because of this? Hard to say.

I hate this push for download only. Its terrible for several reasons.

First I want my movies in full blu-ray quality and since a blu-ray is 50gb that's going to take a hell of a long time to download, plus I could see studios nickle-and-diming customers over extra features. Hard drives die and having to re-download everything would be a pain and it seems like a lot of ISP are capping your monthly downloads and going over that limit will cost big money. It would be awful if you could only download a few titles a month. I don't think older folks would be able to use downloads very easily either. My parents have trouble with dvd menus, there's no way they're going to know to download a movie, no matter how idiot proof they make it.

My personal biggest problem is that I live in an area without broadband and its highly unlikely we'll get broadband here anytime soon. My connection tops out at a whopping 2.8kb/s, which is barely fast enough to watch short YouTube clips, let alone a 2 hour HD movie so what do people like me do?. Not buy movies any more? Will we just have to wait for them to come on satellite before we can see them? Screw that! If that happens the studios can shove their movies up their ass. I'll stick with my dvds and blu-rays, thanks.

Doing away with physical media is a terrible idea. I really hope it never happens. I don't mind services like Netflix offering downloads as an alternative but a physical product should always be readily available, at least until fast internet is available everywhere, hard drives are more reliable and the ISPs start offering higher or even better unlimited internet access. 

Download-only is years away. What's going to happen when Transformers 5 comes out for download and 2 million people try to download it all at the same time? My understanding is that there's no way that that can happen right now and I would imagine that most internet providers are going to have to be pulled kicking and screaming to spend the money (millions?) that will make it a possibility.

Personally, I think this situation is analogous to the HDTV switch that was talked for about a decade with dates set and pushed back over and over before it finally happened. Download-only will happen but it's going to be forever and a day until it actually happens.

Not everyone is going to want to download - many will, but many will still want a psychical disc along with the packaging. Many people still do not even have computers and many who do don't know how to download.  Many also complain about the MOD programs - people still want a psychical disc

Even with problem-free, lightning fast downloads (which are a long way off), it won't replace physical media. Many collectors - and lots and lots of kids - want a library of titles. My kids enjoy looking at the cover and backcover art of their titles before deciding what they'd like to see. So do I. I also enjoy having titles on the shelf. 

Maybe this story is a ruse to get us to buy more DVDs and blu-rays in anticipation of them being discontinued. ; )

BTW, the link in the first post is broken.

Blu-ray sales are UP, and naturally DVD sales are down because people are swtiching to Blu-ray

It's not due to digital downloading - why buy a DVD when it will come out on Blu-ray in the near furture.

I wonder if the combo packs are counted as Blu-rays or DVd's - or both

If I buy one combo pack - am I really buying two films (One on Blu-ray the other on DVD)?

stated this befor,e i want a physical copy in hand, a digital copy is an added feature like deleated scenes, and personaly should not add to the cost

I've no doubt that the day is coming when everything will be downloads, but it's still a ways off. Why? Because no downloadable file can touch a 50GB Blu-ray right now. Very few can even compete with a 4 to 8 GB DVD. Most digital copy downloads are only 1 or 2 GB and there is no way that can compete with a DVD let alone a Blu-ray. Until the internet providers can handle relatively speedy 50 GB downloads, Blu-ray is quite safe. You will see the Blu-ray format use MOD before full-quality HD downloads are the norm.

This story has mysteriously vanished and the link is now dead? hmmm...??

Oh some more on Netflix, Enjoy

Netflix’s Next Big Problem: Keeping Quality Content

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10980975/1/netflix8217s-next-big-problem-keeping-quality-content.html

I don't think physical media is going away anytime soon but I am also looking forward to Ultraviolet later this year!

Physical media for the rental market is going to become a niche real fast, probably within 2-3 years.The ownership market still generally likes physical media, and Blu-ray should have a healthy life-span (with DVD only MOD titles filling back catalog niches). However, going beyond Blu-ray makes little sense to me. We have HD picture and lossless audio, and plenty of room for fantastic bonus content. I don't see how one can improve from a format perspective, personally.

I didn't mention this in my first post but I do like physical media as well. However, I only have ~150 Blurays so far and have cut my purchases way back since I can get streamed movies from Comcast and Netflix. I had over 700 DVD's at one point before I sold them off.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark-P 

I've no doubt that the day is coming when everything will be downloads, but it's still a ways off. Why? Because no downloadable file can touch a 50GB Blu-ray right now. Very few can even compete with a 4 to 8 GB DVD. Most digital copy downloads are only 1 or 2 GB and there is no way that can compete with a DVD let alone a Blu-ray. Until the internet providers can handle relatively speedy 50 GB downloads, Blu-ray is quite safe. You will see the Blu-ray format use MOD before full-quality HD downloads are the norm.

I'm wouldn't bet on that. Why would it have to touch 50GB? The masses won't care if it's 20GB. Masses don't care about quality. If the movies are all available, it will be the demise quick. Look at CDs and music. What is selling now? MP3s and AACs. It will be no different, as much as we may or may not like it.

More people can tell the difference in visual quality than in audio quality. Most people can't hear the difference between mp3 above 128k and CD-quality audio unless in a critical listening environment, but people can tell the difference between good and poor video compression.

I'm watching LOST right now through Netflix streaming, and anytime there is moving water in a shot, the entire picture becomes unwatchable due to the blocking.

I only buy mp3s above 200k, but I'd rather buy the CD and rip to a dual lossless (for home) and mp3 (for portable) library myself. Unfortunately, the price difference between CDs and the mp3s on Amazon makes physical media not worth it.

I don't mind the on-demand streaming if it's a flat monthly rate for whatever i feel like casually watching, the way Netflix is doing it. But if it's a PPV model, I'd much prefer the ability to buy my own high-quality physical media for specific titles I know I'll watch repeatedly.

kinda sad about Blu-Ray being the last physical medium. i really really wanted movie studios to start releasing films in 16-bit color depths... Blu-Ray is still 8-bit *sigh*... boo on color-banding. audio is great... but video... just not there yet.

just imagine what it could have been... 16-bit color depths... in 3-D... 4k resolution per eye... =)

I don't think Blu-Ray is the last physical medium, just probably the last exclusively phyiscal medium.  I think we're still decades away from the likes of Wal-Mart not having something to put on the shelves of their video department.

The US is a very large self-contained market.  Europe and the rest of the planet are - by definition - extremely fragmented when it comes to rights & distribution.  It is impossible to opporate a single streaming/disc media/on-demand service even in Europe due to the rights issues and release schedule of different countries.  Even if the likes of Netflicks brought physical media to an end in the US, they would continue to be manufactured for the rest of the world for quite some time after.  Perhaps this may even result in collectors importing foreign blurays when streaming becomes dominant in the US. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbo73 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark-P 

I've no doubt that the day is coming when everything will be downloads, but it's still a ways off. Why? Because no downloadable file can touch a 50GB Blu-ray right now. Very few can even compete with a 4 to 8 GB DVD. Most digital copy downloads are only 1 or 2 GB and there is no way that can compete with a DVD let alone a Blu-ray. Until the internet providers can handle relatively speedy 50 GB downloads, Blu-ray is quite safe. You will see the Blu-ray format use MOD before full-quality HD downloads are the norm.

I'm wouldn't bet on that. Why would it have to touch 50GB? The masses won't care if it's 20GB. Masses don't care about quality. If the movies are all available, it will be the demise quick. Look at CDs and music. What is selling now? MP3s and AACs. It will be no different, as much as we may or may not like it.

I think there is a market for higher quality.  Why are people buying Blu Ray discs when they also have a choice to watch the same thing on DVD (and at a cheaper price).  One recent example...Why did people purchase more than 45% of the hit movie The Social Network on Blu Ray disc when the much cheaper Lower quality DVD release was sitting next to it on the shelf???  They probably wanted the better quality.   So maybe the "Masses" dont want quality but almost half in this case do.   While the market may be smaller they are spending more per item as a purchase as BD costs more than DVD currently.

Back in the day the LaserDisc market continued to thrive even without support of the masses many purchased Laserdisc because of the higher quality.  The higher quality crowd was much smaller back then and supported the market that continued for many many years.  I dont see why the same wouldnt happen today.

Also I noticed that it was mentioned "If the Movies are all available".  You see that is the problem they are not and will not be, see current example (see post #13)

To add to the above I am a big fan of BBC period drama and was in the middle of one of their longer mini series the other day (watching on instant streaming).  I was watching over several nights and when I got to the next part it was no longer available to me for viewing.

Physical media doesn't have expiration dates.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Towergrove 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbo73 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark-P 

I've no doubt that the day is coming when everything will be downloads, but it's still a ways off. Why? Because no downloadable file can touch a 50GB Blu-ray right now. Very few can even compete with a 4 to 8 GB DVD. Most digital copy downloads are only 1 or 2 GB and there is no way that can compete with a DVD let alone a Blu-ray. Until the internet providers can handle relatively speedy 50 GB downloads, Blu-ray is quite safe. You will see the Blu-ray format use MOD before full-quality HD downloads are the norm.

I'm wouldn't bet on that. Why would it have to touch 50GB? The masses won't care if it's 20GB. Masses don't care about quality. If the movies are all available, it will be the demise quick. Look at CDs and music. What is selling now? MP3s and AACs. It will be no different, as much as we may or may not like it.

 

I think there is a market for higher quality.  Why are people buying Blu Ray discs when they also have a choice to watch the same thing on DVD (and at a cheaper price).  One recent example...Why did people purchase more than 45% of the hit movie The Social Network on Blu Ray disc when the much cheaper Lower quality DVD release was sitting next to it on the shelf???  They probably wanted the better quality.   So maybe the "Masses" dont want quality but almost half in this case do.   While the market may be smaller they are spending more per item as a purchase as BD costs more than DVD currently.

 

Back in the day the LaserDisc market continued to thrive even without support of the masses many purchased Laserdisc because of the higher quality.  The higher quality crowd was much smaller back then and supported the market that continued for many many years.  I dont see why the same wouldnt happen today.

 

 

Also I noticed that it was mentioned "If the Movies are all available".  You see that is the problem they are not and will not be, see current example (see post #13)

 

To add to the above I am a big fan of BBC period drama and was in the middle of one of their longer mini series the other day (watching on instant streaming).  I was watching over several nights and when I got to the next part it was no longer available to me for viewing.

 

Physical media doesn't have expiration dates.

The reason people (and I'm not talking videophiles like the people here) are buying Blu-rays is mainly because of marketing. They also buy crappy LCDs and such. They are told it's the new, cool thing, so they go for it. If they were told streaming was the new cool thing, they'd get into that. They get into whatever is marketed as the next cool thing. This applies to everything.

Obviously Blu-rays ARE higher quality, but that's not why masses are buying over DVDs IMHO. On most mass displays that are sharpness +10 and contrast to the max , etc., they can't even discern the quality. I've had numerous discussions with people that bought into Blu-ray only to say it's overrated, not much difference, etc. So when streaming will be the next cool thing, the masses will go to that. I'm 100% certain of that. If Blu-ray remains a niche, that's fine with me, but I don't know if it will. In fact I doubt it. It will disappear, just like SACD, DVD-A, and now CDs. You can't look from a personal point of view on these things. We never get what we want!

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbo73 

Quote:

Obviously Blu-rays ARE higher quality, but that's not why masses are buying over DVDs IMHO. On most mass displays that are sharpness +10 and contrast to the max , etc., they can't even discern the quality. I've had numerous discussions with people that bought into Blu-ray only to say it's overrated, not much difference, etc. So when streaming will be the next cool thing, the masses will go to that. I'm 100% certain of that. If Blu-ray remains a niche, that's fine with me, but I don't know if it will. In fact I doubt it. It will disappear, just like SACD, DVD-A, and now CDs. You can't look from a personal point of view on these things. We never get what we want!

Blu-ray vs DVD quality largely depends on the size and quality of your monitor. On a good monitor over 40" you can see a Big difference between DVD and Blu-ray

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbo73 

 

Obviously Blu-rays ARE higher quality, but that's not why masses are buying over DVDs IMHO. On most mass displays that are sharpness +10 and contrast to the max , etc., they can't even discern the quality. I've had numerous discussions with people that bought into Blu-ray only to say it's overrated, not much difference, etc. So when streaming will be the next cool thing, the masses will go to that. I'm 100% certain of that. If Blu-ray remains a niche, that's fine with me, but I don't know if it will. In fact I doubt it. It will disappear, just like SACD, DVD-A, and now CDs. You can't look from a personal point of view on these things. We never get what we want!

I would not even compare CDs, and Blu-ray to DVD-A or SACD. Those 2 formats never made much inroads.

CD has done OK for damn near 30 years! And i still buy them, if i can get more than 1 good song! And that is where the music industry has lost out. Why would i buy a CD for 1 good song, when i can buy THAT song for a buck?

Blu-ray is in 20 or 30 % of homes now. If it is a niche, it is a nice niche.  :)

Even LD lasted almost 20 years, and it only had 1% of the market. I think Blu-ray and downloads can live together a long time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbo73 

. It will disappear, just like SACD, DVD-A, and now CDs. 

 

SACD has not disappeared. Whatever gave you that idea? New SACDs are being released all the time and covering all musical styles Some of Nat King Cole's mid-50s albums are coming out on SACD right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markey 

The US is a very large self-contained market.  Europe and the rest of the planet are - by definition - extremely fragmented when it comes to rights & distribution.  It is impossible to opporate a single streaming/disc media/on-demand service even in Europe due to the rights issues and release schedule of different countries.  Even if the likes of Netflicks brought physical media to an end in the US, they would continue to be manufactured for the rest of the world for quite some time after.  Perhaps this may even result in collectors importing foreign blurays when streaming becomes dominant in the US. 

I've long feared the death of physical media, but this is an interesting point that I hadn't considered.  I already import a handful of DVDs and Blu-ray discs, and if the market evolves such that discs are mostly available only as imports, that wouldn't be a huge setback.  This makes me feel a bit better about the situation.  Thanks for sharing your insight.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TravisR 

Download-only is years away. What's going to happen when Transformers 5 comes out for download and 2 million people try to download it all at the same time? My understanding is that there's no way that that can happen right now and I would imagine that most internet providers are going to have to be pulled kicking and screaming to spend the money (millions?) that will make it a possibility.

 

Personally, I think this situation is analogous to the HDTV switch that was talked for about a decade with dates set and pushed back over and over before it finally happened. Download-only will happen but it's going to be forever and a day until it actually happens.

Thats what most people said 5 years ago when Netflix streaming first showed up. The conventional wisdom at the time was that there wasn’t sufficient bandwidth to support streaming video for a large market. Well now streaming is more than 50% of Netflix business, and they expect it to push 70% by the end of this year.

Secondly we are talking about streaming, not downloads. There is quite a difference in technical requirements.

It’s also shocking how good HD can look at 4 to 8 mbps. Perfectly acceptable for casual viewing, and its only going to get better.

Doug

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Conway 

Physical media for the rental market is going to become a niche real fast, probably within 2-3 years.The ownership market still generally likes physical media, and Blu-ray should have a healthy life-span (with DVD only MOD titles filling back catalog niches). However, going beyond Blu-ray makes little sense to me. We have HD picture and lossless audio, and plenty of room for fantastic bonus content. I don't see how one can improve from a format perspective, personally.

I think we are rapidly moving away from an ownership market, which is what the studios have wanted since the betamax case. Now they are finding a way to put that genie back into the bottle. We may like the blu-ray format for all its advantages, but the studios prefer streaming for a number of reasons. They don't have to manufacture, package or ship anything. Once the file is on a server, its pure profit.

Doug

Everybody's going on about bandwidth and whether or not people are prepared to download.  What's going to change the market will be some Apple-style device (not necessarily by Apple, but some Killer-Kit device by some manufacturer) that will combine an easy ordering and downloading interface (like iTunes) with a fast network connection.  There have been attempts, but sooner or later somebody (and again my money is on Steve Jobs) will come up with a must-have box that everybody will want and that will drive the wholesale takeup of downloading.

I'd rather not see the end of physical media.  I'm old enough to be fond of proper hardback books, proper discs in cases with pretty artwork and the like.  That's not to say I don't see the benefit of downloading.  Since I've got a 50Mb broadband connection, I can see the benefit most definitely, but it's still not quite fast or reliable enough. 

I also have nightmares about Tom Cruise syndrome - that server space will never be cheap enough for the Studios to hold esoteric titles for enthusiasts when the same space can provide more bandwidth for the latest Tom Cruise movie.  It took the best part of nine years from the start of DVD for my favourite movie Monte Carlo Or Bust to be released, and that was a short-lived, licensed release from Legend Films because Paramount undervalues its library.  I strongly suspect that I will never see the movie given proper restoration treatment, and its availability as a kosher download from its parent Studio will be unlikely.