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Take that, iPad! - Page 6

post #151 of 172
6/20/11 at 5:26pm
Thread Starter 

Hoenycomb has been a bust.  Google is leaving Honeycomb and moving to the unified ICS OS.  This will give them the flexibility to make one app for phone and tablet instead of having a separate tablet app space.  Tegra2 has been a bust.  The first dual core mobile chipset has exhibited markedly poor performance.  There's a lot of hype and marketing but nothing about this chipset is blowing anyone away.

 

What we will see later this year is a tablet with ICS and, say, the Samsung Exynos chipset that will exhibit the kind of power that many of us envisioned Xoom would provide.  That includes the muscle to playback Flash video smoothly (which will be a big differentiator) and more and more video streaming options including the ability to stream HD video straight off of media servers.  

 

But I think the biggest draw to Android tablets will be the sheer number of Android phone owners who are used to the experience and don't consider an Android tablet to be the steep learning curve experience that it's been painted as.  And the fact that the app you bought for your phone can be downloaded on your tablet at no extra cost will be a very attractive proposition.  iPad owners have to rebuy their app library whereas Android owners will be able to replicate their apps on their tablets.  With ICS, there won't be a "tablet version" you need to rebuy.

 

The bottom line is that there are more Android users than iPhone users.  So the notion many Apple fans cling to of this great unwashed who prefer the elegant simplicity of iOS to the monstrous complexity of Android (which is quite overstated to being with) will shrink over time.  Multiple form factors will give Android an edge as well.  

 

Oh, and I don't know if Android will ever catch up to the sheer number of apps iOS has (I have a feeling Cupertino won't let that happen), I'd think that somewhere in the 200K app range, the law of diminishing returns starts kicking in.  When it was 250K vs 50K there was a clear advantage, but 400K vs 200K is seems more like dick waving.  The 200K difference aren't all killer apps.  Not even close.

 

The bottom line is that the Android tablets don't have to get better.  They just have to get good, and they're not there yet.

 

 


Edited by Hanson - 6/20/11 at 5:37pm
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post #152 of 172
6/20/11 at 6:19pm
Sounds like the same old excuses to me, Hanson! NEXT YEAR will be the year for Linux on the desktop, this time we swear its true!
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post #153 of 172
6/20/11 at 6:51pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanson Yoo View Post

 

And the fact that the app you bought for your phone can be downloaded on your tablet at no extra cost will be a very attractive proposition.  iPad owners have to rebuy their app library whereas Android owners will be able to replicate their apps on their tablets.  With ICS, there won't be a "tablet version" you need to rebuy.

Huh? Universal apps.

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/keynote/id361285480?mt=8

 

It's up to the developer. You're telling me that, ironically, Google is forcing developers to provide "universal" apps, regardless of whether it's good business or not?

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post #154 of 172
6/20/11 at 7:04pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten View Post

Sounds like the same old excuses to me, Hanson! NEXT YEAR will be the year for Linux on the desktop, this time we swear its true!

What a bizarre comeback Sam, considering Android has overtaken iOS in the smartphone market in a very short amount of time.  I'm not sure exactly what point you are trying to make.  Linux is a germane to this situation as Newton.

 

Dave, the ability to load apps across devices on the same gmail account is inherent to Android app management and not a developer opt in or out.   

 

 

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post #155 of 172
6/20/11 at 7:25pm

Curious. I don't quite understand how that will work. Will be interesting to see the next iteration.

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post #156 of 172
6/21/11 at 11:09am
That does seem like an odd way to handle things. So for example, Popcap can't make a different tablet optimized PvZ and market it differently if they wanted to? If they first put out a phone optimized version and later want to make a tablet one they are forced to make it universal only? That sucks. I like the fact that iOS developers have the freedom to handle it whichever way makes sense to them from a size and also profit, perspective.

Hanson, my 'taunt' really comes down to this:
-Honeycomb was supposed to be the bees knees
-Flash was supposed to be 100% awesome across all Android devices by now
-Tegra2 was supposed to knock it out of the park.

Clearly #2 is not the case. If #1 and #3 aren't either (I've not had the chance to play with them personally) then we are stuck with the same mentality of 'Push it out now even if it's not 100% ready for primetime and see what sticks' instead of waiting until a compelling end to end user central experience can be created.

And that's been the story of Linux since the beginning and clearly it infects Android too. 'Patch early and often' loses to 'Craft well and release extraordinary polished creations' in my world but I understand thats not how everyone sees it.

Again I grant you there may be a landslide more android devices on the market than iOS ones, you can debate those numbers all day long and I really don't care about marketshare. But what I question is if those users are genuinely happy or even satisfied with them. Does anyone who isn't a zealot or a hardcore geek/developer truly LOVE the platform? You can fill the marketplace with low rent alternatives that appeal to people who don't know any better or who want something made by 'Anyone but Apple', but that will only get you so far IMO...
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post #157 of 172
6/21/11 at 11:49am

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten View Post

That does seem like an odd way to handle things. So for example, Popcap can't make a different tablet optimized PvZ and market it differently if they wanted to? If they first put out a phone optimized version and later want to make a tablet one they are forced to make it universal only? That sucks. I like the fact that iOS developers have the freedom to handle it whichever way makes sense to them from a size and also profit, perspective.
 

 

But isn't it better to have real, meaningful differentiation than artificially produced ones (based solely on device diff)?  If a particular app could really benefit from different device-dependent versions, then people will buy them accordingly anyway, no?

 

And in any case, if developers really want the differentiation, they can always design/develop their apps accordingly.

 

Although they don't generally explicitly prevent you from installing/running any app version on any device (other than special cases like B&N's NC), that doesn't mean any app version will actually run or run well on any device.  And I don't believe developers are forced to make their apps compatible w/ every version of Android out there.

 

In practice, it probably works out to be more or less the same as in the iOS world, except there's more guesswork w/ Android and less w/ iOS.

 

_Man_

 

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post #158 of 172
6/21/11 at 3:52pm
Thread Starter 
Sam,you seem to hew to the Apple Zombie line that Android is terrible and unfinished, but are simply being bought out of inertia. But there are Blackberries out there. There are WP7 phones now. And yet the growth of Android continues unabated. The iPhone is on Verizon, yet they still seem to sell Android phones in large numbers. You seem to think only techies and Apple haters love Android phones. Yet my sister, her husband, and his sister all have Android phones and love them. So that's three off the bat that counter your argument. They aren't the exception, I'm sure. My sister,btw, owned the iPad2 before her Epic, so it's not a matter of being oblivious to iOS.
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post #159 of 172
6/22/11 at 12:44am

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanson Yoo View Post

the ability to load apps across devices on the same gmail account is inherent to Android app management and not a developer opt in or out.   


Two separate issues: apps optimized for iPad (or universal apps that work either way); and having to rebuy all your apps. iOS users don't have to rebuy apps. If you sync an iPad and iPhone and iPod Touch to the same Mac/PC with iTunes, they all can have the same (universal or small-screen) apps, bought once. And iCloud will make that even easier.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanson Yoo View Post

And yet the growth of Android continues unabated.


Maybe not. I don't necessarily put a lot of stock in this one report, but I try not to give so much weight to the quarter-to-quarter horse race in general.

 

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post #160 of 172
6/22/11 at 7:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanson Yoo View Post

Sam,you seem to hew to the Apple Zombie line that Android is terrible and unfinished, but are simply being bought out of inertia. But there are Blackberries out there. There are WP7 phones now. And yet the growth of Android continues unabated. The iPhone is on Verizon, yet they still seem to sell Android phones in large numbers. You seem to think only techies and Apple haters love Android phones. Yet my sister, her husband, and his sister all have Android phones and love them. So that's three off the bat that counter your argument. They aren't the exception, I'm sure. My sister,btw, owned the iPad2 before her Epic, so it's not a matter of being oblivious to iOS.

I don't know a single non-engineer except for Verizon employees who own an android device.

Of your acquaintances and family who do: How many purchased when iPhone was not on their carrier of choice? How many of them paid more than $50 to get it after their "new every two" discount? How many went into the store specifically looking for an Android device or settled for it because of economic or availability reasons?

All I can tell you is that nobody I know is excited about Android, and those that do have an Android phone got it for one of the following reasons:
-Wanted mobile web access and iPhone was not available at the time they had to purchase, was too expensive for them, or they knew that iPhone 4 on Verizon was already halfway through it's lifespan and they wanted to wait for iPhone 5/LTE.
-Wanted LTE as soon as possible to lock into unlimited data before tiering begins (I know 3 engineers who bought Thunderbolts on day 1 for this reason)
-It was cheap or free at their "New Every Two" date and they got talked into a smart phone at a near zero price and didn't mind the data charges because it would give mobile web

And of the people I've talked to who do own Androids, the overwhelming response to it has been "It's ok but not really what I wanted" and a litany of issues, especially battery life in the early days.

Fanboy or not that's my experience so far.
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post #161 of 172
6/22/11 at 12:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattCR View Post

Really, the top use for a pad for many of my clients is remote desktop. And the Apple does that very well. But with the Acer Iconia turning up at $399, and sometimes less, especially those with bulk buys, I figure some will snap them up. It's not becuase it's better or worse then the ipad, it's because once you're in a remote desktop Kiosk mode, the rest of how it works doesn't really matter. And handing them out to sales reps is a lot cheaper then ipads.


 

$450 at Amazon. Which means, for the normal consumer -- and it's normal consumers driving the iPad's success, not sales reps who want a cheap dumb terminal -- it's still uncompetitive with the iPad.

 

It's not that these Android tablets *shouldn't* succeed. But they don't offer any raison d'etre. I think Apple vs Android of 2011 does not parallel Apple vs Microsoft of 1995. But still, a little comparison to Macs vs Wintel...

 

In '95, a Wintel cost less, had more software, and dominated the offices. For the home user, buying a PC had real benefits even if the experience was inferior (though by '98 I think the Windows was coming on strong to Mac System [whatever]).

 

But today, there's nothing like that in Android tablets vs iPads. Android tablets aren't appreciably cheaper: $50, so about 10%. Nothing like the 30+% price difference perceived in Macs vs PCs. Android tablets are nowhere to be seen: there's no compulsion to buy one to be compatible with the office. They have less software; iPad's the way to go for the broadest and best selection of apps. Likewise media: if you buy music or movies, ipad is better. iTunes may stink on the PC, but it's there. Android is still in its media-selling infancy.

 

Aside from niche uses, as I've described with my dad's Remote Desktop setup requiring an Android tablet, there's still no good reason to buy an Android tablet. Maybe those Android phone buyers, as suggested, will look to buy a compatible tablet?

 

Barring an unexpected upswing in corporate use of Android tablets, or the launch of a massive Amazon system, I think Android tablets won't take off until you can get a 10" tablet for $349. Without superior hardware, software, or media integration, the only route is to undercut Apple on price, and by a lot. (And the 7" Nook Color suggests even discount pricing may be insufficient.)

 

 

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post #162 of 172
6/23/11 at 5:54am

Gotta agree with Sam and Dave.  (you guys are the same Sam & Dave who did Come On, Come Over with Jaco Pastorious back in the day, right drum.gif)

 

Sorry to repost from the other thread: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/06/20/samsungs-new-galaxy-tab-is-still-no-match-for-peerless-ipad2/

 

 

Quote:

The new Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 has hit the streets and it's yet another in a long line of mediocre Android tablet experiences.
...

My job is to recommend or not recommend gadgets based on my experience using those devices. For the general consumer I can't think of a single reason to buy this device.

 

The biggest chance Android has is Amazon to go all in with an Android tablet this fall selling as a heavy loss leader trying to stake B&N and Apple in the eBook/Media battle.  

 

Dave says:

 

Quote:
In '95, a Wintel cost less, had more software, and dominated the offices. For the home user, buying a PC had real benefits even if the experience was inferior (though by '98 I think the Windows was coming on strong to Mac System [whatever]).

 

Actually, in defense of Microsoft, WIndows 95 offered pre-emptive multitasking and memory protection -- something Mac OS did not, and would not until the release OS X 10.0 some six long years later -- and it wasn't until the release of 10.2 the following year that OS X finally started getting some real traction.  Microsoft, as bad as Windows was in so many ways, had this HUGE technological advantage for 7 long years and was cheaper, and it looked to anyone paying attention that Apple was done for.

 

Any fan of Android who thinks that Mac vs. Windows == iOS vs. Android is simply uninformed or engaging in heavy wishful thinking.  Now, mind you I am not saying that Apple's success vs. Android is guaranteed.  Apple could go and do something incredibly stooopid tomorrow.  iCloud could lose everyone's mail and contacts and recent photos and erase them from their local devices via push.  Apple could release a new iPhone/iOS/iPad that crashes and burns on a mass scale.  Anything can happen -- but it is Apple's game to lose.  

 

Meanwhile here are two data points.  RIM/Blackberry is imploding, especially domestically right now. The Federal Government just changed its Blackberry only policy to iOS/Android welcome and the corporate world is heading the same way.  But as iOS 5 has essentially all of the Blackberry security buzzwords implemented vs. very few on Android and iOS has the better Exchange compatibility, Apple stands to eat the Lion's share of RIM's current market. (Microsoft won't even have a horse in the race until late 2012, if then.  HP/Web OS may muddy the water, but my suspicion is it will mostly be to Android's detriment).  

 

Second data point: http://allthingsd.com/20110622/whats-the-top-selling-phone-at-verizon-and-att/

The iPhone is outselling Android at both Verizon and AT&T.  What happens if, as is likely, the iPhone 5 ships on T-Mobile and Sprint as well?  Android will still likely dominate worldwide smartphone market share, but as the low end, Symbian replacement especially in less wealthy countries.  Not exactly the kind of dominance Android wants.

 

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post #163 of 172
6/23/11 at 6:33am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Todorov View Post

Second data point: http://allthingsd.com/20110622/whats-the-top-selling-phone-at-verizon-and-att/

The iPhone is outselling Android at both Verizon and AT&T.  What happens if, as is likely, the iPhone 5 ships on T-Mobile and Sprint as well?  Android will still likely dominate worldwide smartphone market share, but as the low end, Symbian replacement especially in less wealthy countries.  Not exactly the kind of dominance Android wants.

 


That is the stupidest, sloppiest piece of data collection and analysis I've seen wrt iOS vs Android, and I've been on smartphone forums.

 

Is the iPhone the number one model in most of the Verizon stores?  According to the informal survey, yes.  But Android has multiple models -- in the survey, it only goes head to head with a specific Android model.  So if a store is selling more Android phones in aggregate than the iPhone but their top selling Android phone model sells less than the iPhone, it's a point for Apple.  

 

This guy is actually getting paid to write articles like this?

 

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post #164 of 172
6/23/11 at 7:01am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanson Yoo View Post

That is the stupidest, sloppiest piece of data collection and analysis I've seen wrt iOS vs Android, and I've been on smartphone forums.

 

Is the iPhone the number one model in most of the Verizon stores?  According to the informal survey, yes.  But Android has multiple models -- in the survey, it only goes head to head with a specific Android model.  So if a store is selling more Android phones in aggregate than the iPhone but their top selling Android phone model sells less than the iPhone, it's a point for Apple.  

 

This guy is actually getting paid to write articles like this?

 


 I agree that the research is stupidly presented -- but someone else (BGR?) had an article based on the same survey with another graph -- what is the most popular Android phone at Verizon: and #1 was outselling #2 by a 10 to 1 margin.  So likely the iPhone is outselling ALL Verizon Android phones put together.  But a survey of platform market share by carrier would be useful as well.  

 

My larger point stands: don't assume that Android will keep being the US Smartphone OS leader for the foreseeable future -- they may lose their perch by the end of 2011 -- but only if come September the iPhone 5 ships to all 4 major carriers.

 

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post #165 of 172
6/23/11 at 7:13am
Thread Starter 

Are you thinking of the end of this article?

 

http://www.phonedog.com/2011/06/22/iphone-beats-out-android-in-sales-at-verizon-and-at-t-stores-analyst-claims/

 

Again, the methodology is flawed.  The Charge is the top Android seller over the Thunderbolt 9 to 1, but that's based on first place finishes and not total sales.

 

Also, this is a snapshot of a two week period.  I guess it was a slow new day since it was picked up by so many outlets and given zero critical review. 

 

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post #166 of 172
6/23/11 at 7:33am

I agree, a much better survey is needed.

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post #167 of 172
6/23/11 at 11:34am

Another data point:

http://searchengineland.com/comscore-the-ipad-owns-97-percent-of-us-tablet-traffic-82855

my quick calculation shows iOS as a whole has 53% of all US mobile traffic.  The iPad's figures are similarly lopsided worldwide.  The iPhone by itself leads Android in every country surveyed except for the US, Argentina and India.  

 

What is difference between say France, where the iPhone has double the share (34% vs. 17%) of Android and the US?  The iPhone is on all carriers in France.  Which is why I think the iPhone 5 being release or not on T-Mobile/Sprint is so important to whether the iPhone or Android leads in the future.  How much demand is there on those carriers? T-Mobile said today that they have 1 million US iPhone customers on their network -- that means that 1 million people were willing to settle for Edge on an iPhone instead of HSPA+ ("4G") on an Android phone and probably pay much more for a no contract iPhone… iPhone on all US carriers (hey, throw Metro PCS a bone) would in my opinion reverse ANdroids current US lead over iPhone.

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post #168 of 172
6/23/11 at 11:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Todorov View Post

 Which is why I think the iPhone 5 being release or not on T-Mobile/Sprint is so important to whether the iPhone or Android leads in the future.  ...  iPhone on all US carriers (hey, throw Metro PCS a bone) would in my opinion reverse ANdroids current US lead over iPhone.


While I think in in principle it's possible for iOS to take the marketshare lead, that requires Apple to be capable of manufacturing more smartphones than all other phone makers combined. Given the launch shortages of the iPhone 4 and iPad 2, that may be impossible. Basic practicalities may prevent iOS from leading in marketshare.

 

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post #169 of 172
6/23/11 at 1:09pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveF View Post

While I think in in principle it's possible for iOS to take the marketshare lead, that requires Apple to be capable of manufacturing more smartphones than all other phone makers combined. Given the launch shortages of the iPhone 4 and iPad 2, that may be impossible. Basic practicalities may prevent iOS from leading in marketshare.

 


Apple already manufactures more iPhones than all other smart-phones combined *sold in the United States* -- no one is suggesting this will happen worldwide.  The extra iPhones needed for the US market alone are quite within Apple's reach.  OTOH, if they do get on China Mobile, with its 600 million subscribers then Apple will struggle to keep up with demand. By contrast T-Mobile + Sprint + Virgin + MetroPCs have what -- 1/10th that number os subscribers? And they can subtract that 1 million iPhones that are already on T-Mobile...

 

 But this also points to why it isn't in the cards for Apple to lead worldwide -- there are simply way too major carriers and entire countries where the iPhone isn't being sold.  They are on a single carrier in China and not on the #1 carrier China Mobile.  They are on a single carrier in Japan and not on the # 1 carrier DoCoMo -- etc. etc.

 

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post #170 of 172
6/23/11 at 1:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Todorov View Post

Quote:


Apple already manufactures more iPhones than all other smart-phones combined *sold in the United States* -- no one is suggesting this will happen worldwide.  The extra iPhones needed for the US market alone are quite within Apple's reach.  OTOH, if they do get on China Mobile, with its 600 million subscribers then Apple will struggle to keep up with demand. By contrast T-Mobile + Sprint + Virgin + MetroPCs have what -- 1/10th that number os subscribers? And they can subtract that 1 million iPhones that are already on T-Mobile...

 


Is that so? Not that it can't be; but I thought the conclusion was the in-store polls were of sketchy value, and didn't necessarily show iPhone categorically outselling Android.

 

 

Android in China is interesting in its own way: I've read that there are significant Android phones built on the truly 'free' Android, and not running the "Google Experience" that everyone associates with Android here in the US. (There might even be a major fork of the code.) It's being used as a truly free, unencumbered mobile OS, but also doesn't fully represent Google's desires for Android's use and representation.

 

The possible outcome of that is that while "Android" is used by a 100M people, it doesn't relate at all to Google's app store, doesn't help Android compete in the US against iOS. If google's goal is "mobile search", it's ultimately still good for them. But in terms of supporting the eco-system--rising tide lifts all boats--it might not do any good at all for Motorola, HTC, LG, and so on.

 

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post #171 of 172
6/24/11 at 11:29am

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveF View Post

Is that so? Not that it can't be; but I thought the conclusion was the in-store polls were of sketchy value, and didn't necessarily show iPhone categorically outselling Android.

 

 

Android in China is interesting in its own way: I've read that there are significant Android phones built on the truly 'free' Android, and not running the "Google Experience" that everyone associates with Android here in the US. (There might even be a major fork of the code.) It's being used as a truly free, unencumbered mobile OS, but also doesn't fully represent Google's desires for Android's use and representation.

 

The possible outcome of that is that while "Android" is used by a 100M people, it doesn't relate at all to Google's app store, doesn't help Android compete in the US against iOS. If google's goal is "mobile search", it's ultimately still good for them. But in terms of supporting the eco-system--rising tide lifts all boats--it might not do any good at all for Motorola, HTC, LG, and so on.

 


I may not have been very clear in my previous post -- I'm not claiming that iPhone is outselling all Android phones in the US -- I just said Apple has the manufacturing capacity to do so.  

 

The forked Chinese Android in no way, shape or form helps Google -- I'd argue it hurts them -- certainly doesn't help them in search, as all these phones use Baidu -- a domestic Chinese search engine.  I have feeling (don't know for sure) that in fact the iPhone being sold in China is the one smartphone there with Google search).

 

As to my point on where the future sales trend in the US lies, apparently The Washington Post agrees with me:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/the-verizon-iphone-halted-androids-surge-the-iphone-5-could-reverse-it/2011/06/22/AGrUkRgH_story.html

 

 

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post #172 of 172
6/24/11 at 11:45am

WaPo article is sourced from the same studies we've been debating. Echo chamber, not confirmation.

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