iPhone or Droid Incredible? In other words, is AT&T really so bad? - Page 12

Not that it matters much :) but: Yes, OS X and iOS use Obj-C as their fundamental development language. Obj-C is a superset of C. At its origin, it was an object-oriented programming language. Apple in recent years added on new features (far beyond my knowledge of programming). From a bit of experience (a long time ago) and from listening to Jon Siracusa's podcast (Hypercritical), it seems fair to say that in the most important ways, Obj-C is more C than Java. This relates to its lack of automatic garbage collection and some other new programming methodologies the cool kids use today.

Siracusa's discussion on this is interesting (a revisitation of an article he years ago regarding OS X): Apple is behind the curve on modern programming languages, and risks losing its edge in the long-run if it can't transition to a modern system.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveF 
Not that it matters much :) but: Yes, OS X and iOS use Obj-C as their fundamental development language. Obj-C is a superset of C. At its origin, it was an object-oriented programming language. Apple in recent years added on new features (far beyond my knowledge of programming). From a bit of experience (a long time ago) and from listening to Jon Siracusa's podcast (Hypercritical), it seems fair to say that in the most important ways, Obj-C is more C than Java. This relates to its lack of automatic garbage collection and some other new programming methodologies the cool kids use today.

I can't remember if Siracusa mentioned it, but the current version of Obj C does in fact have automated garbage collection (it didn't for many years).  But yes, Obj C is more C than Java.  It performs better than Java, is is less abstract than Java.  The future of OS X/iOS will never be Java -- even Ruby, via MacRuby stands a better chance.

Interesting. The bits I've heard are that iOS does not have any automated garbage collection -- so not Obj-C per se, but its implementation on the mobile devices at least. Perhaps that has changed.

Edit:

http://www.levelofindirection.com/journal/2010/8/13/we-dont-need-no-stinking-garbage-collection.html

Yep: OS X has it but not iOS (as of 2010, anyway)

Good catch -- you are correct -- I remembered that it got it for Mac OS X but forgot about iOS being different.

Thanks for the details on Obj-C.  I've been out of that loop for ages now -- and only had passing experience w/ it during its early days.  Interesting that it's handled differently on OS X vs iOS.  These days I'm more of a .NET/C# guy.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Todorov 

Yes there are some iPod Touch competitors but they remain utter failures in the marketplace (the now dead Zune HD probably had the biggest success).   You are claiming that the iPod Touch will be less successful in the future -- I have seen no evidence of that happening.-- in fact iPod Touch sales have been growing steadily -- it has been devouring iPod market share rather than getting eaten by the iPhone.  The reasons to have one haven't changed -- a pocketable "app computer"/media player without having to pay for expensive cell phone service.  The iPod Touch sells fine in places like France where the iPhone is on every single carrier -- because you may want to give it to your 10 year old, but wouldn't want to give her an iPhone as one example.  Also France is a good example of what happens to Android when the iPhone is on all carriers -- not much of a market share.  I think that everyone is extrapolating the current Android growth to continue apace in the US market -- I think that as the iPhone moves to all US carriers Android market share will stall.  I will say that I don't expect it to drop, but that iPhone/Android will grow at a similar rate eating both dumbphone share (which at this point is under 50% in the US) and BlackBerry share.

It's all speculation at this point since the environment was quite different before.  For instance, if smartphones will indeed gobble up most of the marketshare that previously belonged to dumb phones, then that will stunt iPod Touch sales.  10-yo's are generally not buying it for themselves afterall.  And I doubt too many parents are actually buying new iPod Touches for their 10-yo's either unless Apple slashes prices very substantially, which seems doubtful -- passing on your old iPod Touch (or even old, decommissioned iPhone) to your kid after you move upto a new iPhone is a different thing and does not help iPod Touch sales.  Not sure what "sells fine in places like France" really means for the future, but I'd think those iPod Touch owners haven't migrated to smartphones yet.

Unless the belief is that a large majority of current dumb phone users will actually stick w/ dumb phones, I can't see there being all that much future for the iPod Touch, especially now that there's also the iPad and other tablets in the marketplace now.  Not saying that market will just die tomorrow, but I don't really see it going anywhere going forward.

Well, I didn't say I'm a serious believer in the Playbook.  I was only saying I don't think the iPad has a big lead in the corporate world (yet?) and offered some reasons why it may never dominate there.  Since the corporate world isn't already locked into iOS in any big way, there's really no compelling reason for anyone in it to jump in headfirst into the deep end so far.  Who knows?  Maybe even Amazon's rumored offering won't be too late for that, whether it's really gonna be Android-based or Linux-based or something else...

_Man_

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManW_TheUncool 

 

Unless the belief is that a large majority of current dumb phone users will actually stick w/ dumb phones, I can't see there being all that much future for the iPod Touch, especially now that there's also the iPad and other tablets in the marketplace now.  Not saying that market will just die tomorrow, but I don't really see it going anywhere going forward.

 

Even though a new iPhone is as little as $99, my mom buys a "feature" for the keyboard and taking pics.

Friends with kids and tight budgets won't get a smartphone because of data plan costs.

Coworker who's a computer, Mac, and car enthusiast uses a cheap, no-data plan feature phone does does music and plays videos.
 

A 50-something NASA guy I know has a company-cell phone simply for making calls. Has no interest in anything fancier.

I'm seeing people get iPhones that I wouldn't have expected it, but I'm seeing many people cling to the simpler, cheaper dumbphones and feature phones. I think it's going to be a slowish. In fact, I think the next big phase will be for "Feature Phones" to be replaced by stripped-down Android phones with minimal data plans.

Yes -- agreed.  Dumb phones will go away in manner typewriters and Wang word processors went away -- they will simply stop being made -- there will be people who still want them, but they won't be able to get them. The distinction will be the the data plan (or lack thereof).  When voice disappears as being separate from data, all phones will indeed be smartphones.  My guess -- within a decade -- possibly much sooner, but a decade is the outer limit.

Edit: I was answering DaveF, but obviously I agree with Sam as well.

Yeah, I tend to agree about the inevitable drop in data plan pricing as well.  At minimum, I'd expect the carriers to offer something nominally priced for lower usage customers, if they still want to charge the higher prices that they do now.  They've already been testing the waters w/ that in the past 1/2 year or so, and w/ the economy as it continues to be for the forseeable future, that progression may indeed happen much faster than expected.

_Man_

I think that pretty well nails it.  I think all phones switch to smart phones, and it's happening faster then we think.   Even if people opt out of a data plan, all of them are still wifi enabled, so people still get the use of them (airports, libraries, restaurants, hotels.. everyone throws out free wifi)

I think you're seeing ATT pitching the iPhone at $49 now for the 3GS if you take a data plan.. because they want the monthly money.   But I think that may change soon too.  I think people oppose the "smart" phones because of cost.  But realize, even prepaid phones are now pitching smart phones; Virgin and Boost and all of those are offering Android offerings right now.

To get to the heart of the question, does ATT suck?  Yes, yes it does suck.   I know they are about to buy up T-Mobile, and that will give them probably the largest reach.  But their customer service is basically a crock of s---.  I have never been as dissappointed with a company as I was today with ATT.   Client with 44 phones on their plan - so not a HUGE number of phones, but you're still talking about 5k+ a month to ATT easily, and we had an issue with a person dropping their phone and it getting busted. 

So, we call ATT to see about getting some help.   On hold for an hour.  ATT finally gets on "well, it's outside of the plan" "we have protection on it" "yes, but (long reason why we'd still have to put down a deposit fee or something)."   So, the owner of the company for the client comes in, and he's kind of a jerk, but whatever, it's his money.   He listens for a while "I spent the cost of a house with ATT last year, and you're telling me you can't express me a phone?"  "No, Sir, that's not our policy".. "Well, maybe I should switch!"  "Sir, we'd be happy to talk to you about xxxx.."   This went on for about 30 minutes before finally we got a rep who worked it out to express them a phone, and they just paid the shipping.

But it was absolutely mindblowing to me.  I thought to myself: these people are idiots.

I have no idea what happens when the T-Mobile merge happens.

Sam's 10 years from iPhone's birth would put it something like 6 years from now, no?

Also, if you consider how these things generally work, it might only take 2-3 years from now (out of those 6) for 80-90% of the current dumb phones to be swapped for smartphones and then another 3-4 years for that final 10-20%.

Of course, if the carriers do somehow manage to hold their required data plan pricing lines longer than we're thinking, then it can certainly take that much longer for the migration...

_Man_

In the progression to phones becoming pocket computers, there are two things I wonder:

Does the greater population want pocket computers, rather than simple phones? Many people do. But does 80% of the buying population? Maybe. Probably. I don't know. Maybe they'll get what's best for them,regardless, like the home PC :)

I've read an article or two arguing that demand for wireless data is growing faster than infrastructure. And we're seeing signs of pushback on data pricing with AT&T's caps on wired, home internet. In the long run, cell data should drop drastically (and also see the death of separate voice, SMS, data plans, etc). But it could be a bumpy ride.

Smartphones are moving quickly, and purchase prices (with contract subsidies) are no more than I paid for a dumbphone six years ago. My overall bias is that, time and again, futurists are far too optimistic about the speed at which technology advances and becomes commonplace. I don't think we'll all have smartphones with cheap data in two years. But in a decade from today? Sure, 80% of the US's population will see nothing but phones exceeding the iPHone 4's capabilities when they getting a new phone on contract in the year 2021 at Verspratt stores ;)

Yes, 6 years to go. 

This year 4g launches

Next year 4G goes hardcore for the geeks

2-3 years 4g goes mainstream

4-6 years out everyone has 4g and moderate, inexpensive data plans with only the hardcore getting anywhere near unlimited (this is still the market Apple pursues with their latest iPhones)

I've made dumber predictions, this seems pretty likely to me tho.

And according to IDC, we're all using Windows Phone 7

http://web.me.com/hdediu/Smartphonecountdown/Welcome.html

Horace Dedieu of Asymco calculates we're just over a year away from half the US owning a smartphone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveF 

Clearly a difference in temporal perception. By slowish, I was thinking 10+ years. Whereas you think quickly, in only 10 or so years

Even then, it makes for a 20 year transition, as the move to smartphones started in 2002 with the Treo and Blackberry.

Keep in mind that my 10 years are not US centric -- it will happen a lot sooner here.  I have place like India & sub-Saharan Africa in mind.  It is just a question of smartphone on a single chip coming down to well under $50 wholesale.
 

Huh? There's someplace but the US? 

()

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveF 

http://web.me.com/hdediu/Smartphonecountdown/Welcome.html

 

Horace Dedieu of Asymco calculates we're just over a year away from half the US owning a smartphone.

Update from today:

How does one buy an Android phone with any confidence it will get software updates even a year later, much less two? With an iPhone, the pattern has been that a phone will see significant iOS updates for two years after release. It might get some three years later.

But now there's no hope for the HTC Desire. A year old phone -- top of the line when it debuted -- running 2.2, but won't get last Winter's 2.3 update. Maybe this is something I care about but, say, my dad doesn't. He bought his Android phone last year and may have no interest or concern about software / OS updates.

For me: some people complain about restriction of choice in buying Apple. To me, it's a feature, not a bug. Having to survey the tens or hundreds of Android phones, build a historical model for every manufacturer, track all the rumors as to which phone is being released this month, and then try to pick the *one* best, new, future-proof phone ... ugh!

Different strokes and all that...

https://www.facebook.com/notes/htc-uk/desire-and-gingerbread-update/225607660802056

But didn't we already settle on the "fact" that smartphone users generally upgrade every 2 years (or less) anyway?  So it's probably not *that* big a deal to most I guess.

And honestly, I don't know that I'd want to do a major version upgrade of iOS for a couple-year-old iPhone anyway as the old hardware may not run the new major version all that well -- plus it may be getting close to the time to consider an expensive battery replacement as well in the case of the iPhone.

Basically, this aspect can work out either way, and you just have to pick your poison me thinks...

_Man_

And it's moot: in a whiplash-inducing moment, HTC has reversed itself. Apparently wishing makes it so: they can get 2.3 on the Desire.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManW_TheUncool 

But didn't we already settle on the "fact" that smartphone users generally upgrade every 2 years (or less) anyway?  So it's probably not *that* big a deal to most I guess.

 

And honestly, I don't know that I'd want to do a major version upgrade of iOS for a couple-year-old iPhone anyway as the old hardware may not run the new major version all that well -- plus it may be getting close to the time to consider an expensive battery replacement as well in the case of the iPhone.

 

But might you want a useful software upgrade just six months after purchase? Gingerbread is only 8 months newer than the phone: Desire released Feb 2010, Gingerbread Dec 2010. We're not talking getting Gingerbread on the original Droid.