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The latest on Conan, Leno and NBC - Page 4

post #91 of 572
1/10/10 at 4:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MielR View Post

Conan may have a chance at improving his ratings if they put L&O back at 10pm and people stay through the local news.

He deserves that chance.  He proved the critics wrong all those years ago when he took over for Dave. 

You need a little time to build an audience, for goodness' sake.

NBC should stick with its decision to move on from Jay.  Don't panic and make things even worse.
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post #92 of 572
1/10/10 at 4:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zack Gibbs View Post

^^But what makes you think any of that is likely Adam?
What makes you think Leno leaving is the only possible solution? Leno's 10 PM ratings absolutely destroy Conan's 11:35 PM ratings. At this point, Leno remains the more viable asset -- especially since, as he has repeatedly made clear, he's not going to leave politely.

That puts the ball in Conan's court: he either puts up and shuts up at 12:05 on NBC, hoping that Leno won't recover and he'll be able to outlast him, or he tires of being shit on by the network and walks. Conan at Fox is potentially more dangerous to NBC than Leno at Fox because Leno's demographics line up better with NBC's demographics. But that same argument is why NBC would pick Leno over Conan.

Overall, I still think the smart move for Conan would be to stay an NBC and bide his time. An NBC/CBS late night showdown is a better situation for Conan to inherit than if he goes to Fox and the market fragments into a four-way race between all of the major networks now.

Who's sitting the prettiest right now? Craig Ferguson. By the time he inherits the Late Show from Letterman, this mess will have all blown over. In the meantime, he'll be up against either the perpetually awful Jimmy Fallon or the sloppy second half of Conan. Either is great news for him.
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post #93 of 572
1/10/10 at 5:15pm
Well, I thought I made my case clearly enough. Extremely poor primetime numbers don't equal decent late night numbers. There's no way he can take back the tonight show in good faith. They've invested too much into Conan, and they don't even know how his show will shape up, it's still got Jay Leno dragging it down.

I'll wager 1500 HTF points that if someone leaves NBC's current lineup, it'll be Leno. Maybe he'll rethink a weekly show or something, who knows.
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post #94 of 572
1/10/10 at 5:32pm
I do believe all of this benefits Fergueson, who runs a good show.

 

That having been said, you are also right on Conan moving being a big potential problem for NBC.. if Conan were to jump to Fox, he wouldn't be jumping to an 11:35 start.  He'd be jumping to a 10:30PM (EST) or 11PM (EST) start, because Fox does their local news @ 10PM EST.  Fox would love to have Conan in that spot, because at a minimum, 1/2 his show would be up against everyone else's newscast, which would improve their already strong nightly news, and Fox would have instant tie-ins to their programming (American Idol anyone?) 

Fox's young demographic would also favor Conan in a big way.

NBC either fixes this some how or they really screw the pooch.  There isn't much of an inbetween.  Other networks have to be laughing their absolute ass off.  Where's BrianK who was all thinking we were idiots for saying Leno would fail??  :)  Sorry Brian :)

What's funnier is that word is coming out fast and furious that the decision was made -without- Zucker.  So, the higher ups pulled the trigger.  Talk about a vote of no-confidence.

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post #95 of 572
1/10/10 at 5:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zack Gibbs View Post

Well, I thought I made my case clearly enough. Extremely poor primetime numbers don't equal decent late night numbers. There's no way he can take back the tonight show in good faith. They've invested too much into Conan, and they don't even know how his show will shape up, it's still got Jay Leno dragging it down.


But decent late night numbers mean decent late night numbers. Leno didn't leave the Tonight Show because he was underperforming, he left the Tonight Show because that was the deal NBC had to make to keep Conan from bolting in 2004.

Conan averages two million fewer viewers a night than Leno did in the timeslot. Leno has exceeded NBC's expectations ratings-wise in primetime, averaging a 1.98 audience share when they were only looking for a 1.8 audience share. The problem is, they refused to deal with the fact that affiliates were always going to need a much better lead-in than 1.98. It was the whole idea of a 10 PM Leno show that was flawed, more than anything Leno did or didn't do. And Leno's 6.6 million viewers a night absolutely destroy Conan's 2.94 million viewers a night.

None of that means that Conan isn't the smarter long-term investment. But given the current NBC management's laser-sharp focus on the short-term over everything else, Leno has the better numbers making Leno the more valuable asset. Leno will perform better at 11:35 PM than Conan. Guaranteed.

The only problem with hitching on the Leno bandwagon is that they'll find themselves yet again without a viable succession strategy when Leno finally retires, dies or whatever. Jimmy Fallon simply won't cut it.
 

I'll wager 1500 HTF points that if someone leaves NBC's current lineup, it'll be Leno. Maybe he'll rethink a weekly show or something, who knows.

We'll find out by the middle of February.
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post #96 of 572
1/10/10 at 5:35pm
Why is Craig Ferguson's chair so much higher than the chair for his guests?
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post #97 of 572
1/10/10 at 5:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Sun View Post

Why is Craig Ferguson's chair so much higher than the chair for his guests?
As far as I've seen all the late night hosts have a higher chair, especially Letterman.

Also Fox in Philly has a 1 hour 10p news program not a half hour.
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post #98 of 572
1/10/10 at 5:58pm
I really feel bad for Conan and his entire staff who uprooted from NY to come to LA. Lots of families changed their entire lives for this. So hopefully it all works out well for them.

Leno had his chance to get an audience. Didn't 18m people watch the premiere? What they discovered was that the show just wasn't that good as a couple pages worth of posts here already point out. Personally I wish Leno would scrap the Tonight Show format and just do his own thing. Do a fulltime car show, something that he is obviously extremely passionate about and very comfortable talking about. Top Gear UK has shown you can create a comedy car show that appeals to a mass audience, including people that don't even care for cars. Just don't be forced to make another gokart track behind your studio.
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post #99 of 572
1/10/10 at 8:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Sun View Post

Why is Craig Ferguson's chair so much higher than the chair for his guests?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyD View Post

As far as I've seen all the late night hosts have a higher chair, especially Letterman.

Talk Show 101.  Higher chairs put the host in a position of power over the guest. 

Yup.  They ALL do it.  And usually a bold guest will point it out every so often. 
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post #100 of 572
1/10/10 at 8:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by LynxFX View Post

Leno had his chance to get an audience. Didn't 18m people watch the premiere? What they discovered was that the show just wasn't that good as a couple pages worth of posts here already point out. Personally I wish Leno would scrap the Tonight Show format and just do his own thing. Do a fulltime car show, something that he is obviously extremely passionate about and very comfortable talking about. Top Gear UK has shown you can create a comedy car show that appeals to a mass audience, including people that don't even care for cars. Just don't be forced to make another gokart track behind your studio.

The problem with doing Top Gear (as much as I love it) is that Jay is NOT Jeremy Clarkson.  More then that, the other issue is that part of what makes Top Gear great are that they will issue bad reviews, and generally, with GE being a big provider of parts to all major car manufacturers, there isn't a lot of interest in openly bagging someone's product in primetime as a comedy format.  Real disasters?  Sure.  Take it to Dateline or 60 Minutes but you can't make fun of the product like they do on Top Gear.

As to the other: yes, here Fox News is also 1 hour at 9CST.. (10EST) and  I know it's the same in Miami Florida.  Which is all good.  They could either change to a half hour or give Conan etc. a 30 minute head start.
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post #101 of 572
1/10/10 at 9:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattCR View Post




The problem with doing Top Gear (as much as I love it) is that Jay is NOT Jeremy Clarkson.  More then that, the other issue is that part of what makes Top Gear great are that they will issue bad reviews, and generally, with GE being a big provider of parts to all major car manufacturers, there isn't a lot of interest in openly bagging someone's product in primetime as a comedy format.  Real disasters?  Sure.  Take it to Dateline or 60 Minutes but you can't make fun of the product like they do on Top Gear.

 

Exactly. Top Gear works because of the hosts and I don't think there are any 3 guys in America(Leno included) that could duplicate the perfection of Clarkson, Hammond and May.
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post #102 of 572
1/11/10 at 5:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post
On a related note, why did I really like him at 11:35 but never bother watching at 10?

It's not the time slot- it's a different show, a lame watered-down show. It's hard to describe why I don't like it now. It's just kind of blah. They should have kept everything the same except the title.

Another network had a poll on what NBC should do, and some people said rerun the Carson show at 11:30. I like that idea. I wish someone would run those shows.
Or better, why don't they release Carson seasons uncut on iTunes or DVD?  Probably, yet again, music rights...
 
You are right that the 10PM Leno sucks compared to the 11:30 Leno -- I don't want to watch an hour long comedy show with one interview thrown in.  Whether I DVR ANY of the late night shows, ENTIRELY depends on who the guests are.  At best I watch some of the monolog and then skip over to the guest(s) I'm interested in.  With Leno essentially going from three guests to one there is way less chance I'm going to look at the show.  Plus I like his interviews even less now that the desk is gone.  If the same guest is appearing on one of the other shows, I DVR one of them and skip Leno.  

I probably watch Ferguson the least after Leno, because even though I find him very funny (as exemplified by the monolog Dave posted in this thread) Ferguson has the lamest guest line-up after Leno.  
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post #103 of 572
1/11/10 at 5:56am
If  NBC were smart, they'd dump Leno and keep Conan since that will cause the least damage at this point.  If Leno leaves to ABC, Conan would probably retain most of viewers as they're in a younger demo and Leno and Letterman would be fighting it out over a grayer demo.  But a bolting Conan could take his younger viewers to Fox, and that would hurt NBC more in the long and short run.  Leno at 11:35 and Conan at 12:05 is a "neither fish nor fowl" solution.
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post #104 of 572
1/11/10 at 6:01am
As far as Carson goes, don't forget that when Jay was guest-hosting for Johnny, he was getting higher ratings than the nights that Johnny hosted.  Everybody loved Carson, but the fact is that more people were watching Jay.
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post #105 of 572
1/11/10 at 9:43am
Jay tried, he failed. Let him move on. Playing musical chairs with the late night shows does the audience no favors.
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post #106 of 572
1/11/10 at 10:42am
I agree that Top Gear is great because of the hosts, their chemistry and the unabashed willingness to trash vehicles when they deserve it. I'm not suggesting Jay try to duplicate that because it will fail. Top Gear America never got off the ground and we've already seen the half-assed star in a green car challenge.

That doesn't mean he couldn't come up with an entertaining car show of his own format. His videos on jaylenosgarage.com showcase that. They just need a full budget and some polish. Perhaps bringing in a co-host/commentator to play off of, do challenges and the like.
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post #107 of 572
1/11/10 at 12:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanson Yoo View Post

If  NBC were smart....

 
Well, that throws THAT idea right out the window!

Side note:  Can't wait for Wednesday morning to discuss AI!!!!
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post #108 of 572
1/11/10 at 7:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Frezon View Post

Talk Show 101.  Higher chairs put the host in a position of power over the guest. 

Yup.  They ALL do it.  And usually a bold guest will point it out every so often. 

Conan's is far less extreme since he is already so tall.
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post #109 of 572
1/11/10 at 7:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Lenhardt View Post

or the sloppy second half of Conan.

Say what? I love Conan's guest interviews. He easily makes his guests the most comfortable more times than not, and you can tell many guests enjoy his company. Sure, he has a stinker here and there, but that's gonna happen. He's always very gracious to them as well after the interview. He does have a tendency to ham it up more than the other hosts, but more often than not the guest is right there laughing along with the audience. Definitely my favorite interviewing atmosphere, with Ferguson a close second.
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post #110 of 572
1/11/10 at 8:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Conway View Post

Say what? I love Conan's guest interviews. He easily makes his guests the most comfortable more times than not, and you can tell many guests enjoy his company. Sure, he has a stinker here and there, but that's gonna happen. He's always very gracious to them as well after the interview. He does have a tendency to ham it up more than the other hosts, but more often than not the guest is right there laughing along with the audience. Definitely my favorite interviewing atmosphere, with Ferguson a close second.

Don't miss understand me, I like the Conan's interviews too. I was talking from a ratings standpoint: the second half of the hour always gets much lower ratings than the first half.

The thing that kind of excites me about Leno at 11:30 followed by Conan at 12 is that it would leverage the strengths of both; Leno is far more comfortable with the stand-up format that the monologue requires; when he did the Tonight Show it even had a comedy club audience setup. No matter how bad or tired his material, he knows how to play off the audience in a way that Conan doesn't. Conan got around this on "Late Night" by basically subverting the whole idea of a monologue. For whatever reason, he's felt the need to hew more closely to the standard format with his run of the Tonight Show. Maybe having Leno doing that directly before will give him the breathing room to find his own groove and refocus on what he does well: especially the interviews.
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post #111 of 572
1/11/10 at 11:22pm
http://tv.gawker.com/5445941/
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post #112 of 572
1/12/10 at 8:07am
Full disclosure, I’m one of those individuals who likes all of the players in mess. I simply don’t understand the “if you like one you can’t like the other” crowd. In fact I like all of the late night hosts on NBC and CBS and DVR them so I can listen to their monologues and then continue watching if I like the guests they have on. I never got into Kimble but to be fair I have caught some of his video skits and found them funny.
So here is my take on this whole situation.

The first mistake NBC made was acquiescing to Conan's demands back in 2004 and telling Leno that he was "retiring" in 2009. Considering how poorly Conan has done in retaining The Tonight Shows' position of number one it looks like it was the wrong decision. I know that many in this forum think that Leno's show at 10pm is the reason but that is just grasping at straws for an excuse. Conan has had plenty of A list guests but the reality is even his toned downed shtick is simply not gaining traction with the 11:30 audience.
The second mistake they made was creating the 10pm show for Leno. As painful as it was to see him leave they should have let him go once they committed to Conan. I’m certain that people at NBC started to realize far too late that if Leno went to Fox or ABC that they would soon be finding themselves in third place behind Leno and Letterman and that put them into a panic so they created this crazy situation with Leno at 10pm.
So now NBC is on the raggedy edge of a maelstrom that can only result in a messy end. So what are they to do?
Well it looks as if no one at NBC has the personal fortitude to make the tough decisions so they have floated this crazy new line up idea hoping one of them leaves of their own accord. My money is on Conan and my guess is that behind closed doors at NBC they are hoping he walks. After all, he was given a chance and he failed to maintain the networks position as number one at 11:30. They probably reason that if he goes to another network it’s no big deal since his new show will probably be looking up at Leno and Letterman in the rating for years to come.

 
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post #113 of 572
1/12/10 at 9:08am
Letterman had a fun time last night with this again. I usually watch him over Leno and Conan.

Not sure what the right thing to do is. But I don't think the idea of Leno for half an hour makes sense to me. It feels like Leno is being short changed if they give him his 11:35 slot back, but if it only goes for 1/2 hour, what's the point? And it's not fair to Conan either. It does seem one has to go to make it work right. And it seems to me, Leno should stay and Conan would proably do better at Fox. Inspite of his dream to take over The Tonight Show. From what I read, the media watchers think he's a better fit there. But I don't know, I never watched him when he did his 12:35 show much unless I couldn't sleep.
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post #114 of 572
1/12/10 at 9:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick_S View Post

My money is on Conan and my guess is that behind closed doors at NBC they are hoping he walks. After all, he was given a chance and he failed to maintain the networks position as number one at 11:30. They probably reason that if he goes to another network it’s no big deal since his new show will probably be looking up at Leno and Letterman in the rating for years to come.

If they do that, they're probably helping in the short term, but really screwing themselves over in the long run, since Conan's audience skews much younger than the rest from what I understand.
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post #115 of 572
1/12/10 at 9:48am
Simple solution:  keep the NBC late night line-up as it is, let Leno take Oprah's job.
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post #116 of 572
1/12/10 at 10:37am
I've no horse in the race since I don't regularly watch any of them, but I can say that as an old stand up comedy fan, Leno (himself, not his show) is the only one I'd watch for stand-up comedy, as he's the only one I find genuinely funny (as opposed to silly). Even when NBC gave Leno the Tonight Show over Letterman, I liked the decision from an entertainment standpoint because guests and stupid pet tricks aside, I simply enjoy Jay's comedy more. When he has on Bill Maher or Aresnio, I enjoy it because they are all people who were really good at their craft back in the day.
 
thought NBC was crazy to let Jay go until I read places like here to see there are many who prefer Conan. All the hosts have their fans. So, I just sit back and watch the drama play out. Still, there's a party of me that wants Jay Leno on TV, because of all the talk show hosts currently on, he's the one I enjoy a laugh with (even though I rarely watch).
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post #117 of 572
1/12/10 at 12:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson Au View Post

Not sure what the right thing to do is. But I don't think the idea of Leno for half an hour makes sense to me. It feels like Leno is being short changed if they give him his 11:35 slot back, but if it only goes for 1/2 hour, what's the point? And it's not fair to Conan either. It does seem one has to go to make it work right.

I've heard that Conan has some sort of out clause in his contract that forces NBC to pay him a huge fee (potentially 8 figures) if he doesn't get at least half of the 11:30-12:30 time slot.

Can't confirm or deny that, though!
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post #118 of 572
1/12/10 at 12:41pm
Conan just released a statement that he will not continue with the show at 12:05 if that's what they choose.
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post #119 of 572
1/12/10 at 12:42pm
Conan nixes the 12:05 idea.

mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/12/conan-obrien-says-he-wont-do-tonight-show-following-leno/

Good for him. 
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post #120 of 572
1/12/10 at 12:49pm
Conan just released a statement.  Looks like he's leaving.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/01/12/conan-on-conan-at-1205a-do-not-want/38604

The more I think about this, the more I think Conan is going to Fox. ABC doesn't want him since Nightline is doing so well.  The only real problem with him going to Fox is that the Fox affiliates don't seem to want him either.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/01/11/fox-affiliates-lukewarm-on-conan/38459

I feel bad for the guy.  I'm not a fan of his comedy, but you can't help but not like the guy on a personal level. 

But the bottom line is the bottom line and if putting Leno back on at 11:30 means millions of dollars for NBC, they'd be crazy not to do it.
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