2010 at the Box Office - Page 20

IM2 was supposed to be this month's must-see feature and though it has done very well, it may not reach the domestic haul of the first movie ($318.4 million).  IM2 was expected by many to end up earning north of the $400 million mark domestically this summer.  Both Shrek 4 and "Sex & the City 2" were also projected to do stronger business than either has thus far, while the 'Prince of Persia' release got off to a decent, but far from spectacular start.  "MacGruber" ended up becoming this summer's first unmitigated box office disaster.

While box office overall for the year is up, the studios are hoping that the less than stellar showing this May isn't a preview of what to expect during the rest of the summer.

You mean to tell me that you're not a fan of paint-by-numbers sequels?

"Inception" is this summer's only offering that has me really pumped up to see it.  WB has done a very good job in marketing the movie without giving away too many of the film's secrets.

While 2012 will potentially have one of the biggest summer lineups ever (with "The Avengers", MiB 3, the 'Spider-Man' reboot, and Chris Nolan's third Batman flick leading the way), the 2011 session could prove to be huge for the industry with "Thor", Pirates 4, "The Hangover 2", Kung Fu Panda 2, "Cars 2", "Green Lantern", "Fast Five", "X-Men: First Class", 'Captain America', Transformers 3, and the first half of the last 'Harry Potter' story already having release dates staked out.

From what I understand, studios "cut" of international distribution is actually bigger than that of the domestic grosses.  That's been the case ever since studios began creating international distribution arms of their respective studios.  Overseas grosses are what (often) saves studios from taking losses on their more expensive features.  This is also why studios such as Fox and Sony are so willing to co-finance some films as they take the bulk of the overseas grosses. 

Back in 1997, many believed that Fox was stupid for giving up domestic rights to "Titanic" for a "mere" $65 million to Paramount as that studio ended up with both the revenue and the bragging rights for that film's eventual success here in North America.  Fox ended up having the last laugh as the movie brought in $1.2 billion overseas.  Fox is said to have pocketed more than $800 million of that final haul, more than making up the $160 million (of the film's $225 million budget) they spent on the overall budget.

Since then, studios are more than willing to give their movies wide global releases (which wasn't really the case until the mid-to-late 90s).  As I've said many times before, in this day and age the studios actually have to work pretty hard to make a flop.  While this May hasn't been spectacular in terms of overall box office, films like IM2, Shrek 4, and "Robin Hood" haven't really been all that impressive domestically, but all will be huge hits due to the box office tallies from overseas.

Studios earn anywhere from 55%-to-65% of their films' domestic haul, while that figure jumps to about 80% from the overseas markets.

They've changed in a big way.  Why do you think that so many directors nowadays get essentially a blank check when it comes to putting out these big studio potential blockbusters?  The emphasis on overseas box office grosses has definitely re-written the rule book.

More than any other, this year the emphasis is even greater on overseas grosses because theater attendance so far this summer is at a 10 year low.  Even with higher ticket prices (especially considering 3D prices) the summer box office figures thus far haven't been very impressive.  May's total box office came in at just under $905 million, making it the sixth highest May total in history, but in terms of overall attendance it ranks as 12th best.  The industry is hoping things turn around this month.

BEST ATTENDANCE MARKS FOR MAY

#1 2003 158.5 million admissions ($955.8 million) Top Movie: "Finding Nemo"

#2 2002 158.1 million admissions ($917.1 million) Top Movie: "Spider-Man"

#3 2004 143.6 million admissions ($891.8 million) Top Movie: "Shrek 2"

#4 2009 135.8 million admissions ($1.018 billion) Top Movie: "Up"

#5 2007 134.5 million admissions ($925.7 million) Top Movie: "Spider-Man 3"

#6 2008 132.0 million admissions ($948.1 million) Top Movie: "Iron Man"

#7 2005 126.5 million admissions ($811.1 million) Top Movie: "Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith"

#8 1999 120.8 million admissions ($613.7 million) Top Movie: "Star Wars: Episode I- The Phantom Menace"

#9 2006 119.6 million admissions ($781.6 million) Top Movie: "X-Men: The Last Stand"

#10 2000 118.0 million admissions ($637.4 million) Top Movie: "Mission: Impossible 2"

#11 1998 115.3 million admissions ($540.9 million) Top Movie: "Deep Impact"

#12 2010 113.8 million admissions ($904.8 million) Top Movie: "Iron Man 2"

#13 2001 108.7 million admissions ($614.2 million) Top Movie: "Shrek"

I'd have to say that T2 in '91 really got the ball rolling (pulling in just north of $300 million overseas), but 1993's "Jurassic Park" re-wrote all the record books as it became the first movie in history to top the $900 million mark in global box office sales.  The following year saw both "The Lion King" ($455.3 million overseas) and "Forrest Gump" ($347.7 million overseas) become gigantic global phenoms, while '95 gave Fox their biggest international success at the time with "Die Hard with a Vengeance" ($266.1 million overseas).  The studio saw its own record fall the very next year with the massive success of ID4 ($511.2 million overseas/$817.4 million worldwide).

By the time we had moved into the 2000s, the top six major studios (Disney, Fox, Paramount, Sony, Universal, and WB) were swimming in money due to the growth of the global market.  Today, the worldwide success of many Hollywood films has afforded the studios the luxury of seeing declining theater attendance numbers here in the states, while still raking in billions of dollars across the globe.

The current recession is said to be the blame for both declining theater attendance, as well as falling Blu-ray/DVD sales.  The industry seems confident that things will pick back up once the economic crisis has ended.

I agree.  What you've got to understand about the industry is that there is always an excuse as to why a movie doesn't do well or, in this case, why the box office as a whole was down for the entire month of May.  Privately studio execs will rail on the lineup, publicly they'll play the "its the recession" line (or whatever convenient excuse they can come up with).  Studio execs will rarely publicly blame anything that is going on within the industry on slides in movie attendance.  March or April not doing so well isn't big news to anyone, but May is the summer kick-off month and the fact that it came in well under expectations has definitely scared the studios.  If June also pulls in lower-than-expected numbers, the industry will more than likely press the panic button, putting pressure on July's lineup of films to "save" the summer season.

With both IM2 and Shrek 4 delivering solid, but not overly spectacular numbers, Summit's 'Eclipse' (the third 'Twilight' film) has now emerged as the 800 pound gorilla in terms of its box office potential.

Ouch.  The summer box office continues to struggle...

http://www.deadline.com/2010/06/dont-expect-early-box-office-numbers-tonight/

FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM: It's yet another disappointing result for 2010 summer box office following such a weak Memorial Weekend, with this first June weekend's total domestic grosses looking down -20% compared to last year's. DreamWorks Animation's Shrek Forever After distributed by Paramount was #1 Friday with the fourquel's strong -38% hold (thanks to more runs and higher 3D ticket prices than any newcomer) and will be #1 for the weekend. Universal's R-rated Get Him To The Greek debuted #2 well ahead of Lionsgate's Killers Friday, though both received only "B" Cinemascores. But the buzz on Greek was so much better than Killers, not to mention the star power: Jonah Hill and Russell Brand under mogul Judd Apatow's production banner seemed a fresher combination than the played-out duo of Katherine Heigl and Ashton Kutcher. As a result, I thought Greek would finish the weekend much better than the $17.7M grosses from Forgetting Sarah Marshall where Brand's rock star character first appeared.

Fox's Marmaduke opened on the most theaters this weekend among newcomers but will perform poorly even with the Saturday kiddie matinee bounce. The Vincenzo Natali-directed Splice debuted with a terrible "D" Cinemascore -- and the distinction of being arguably the biggest acquisition to ever emerge from the Sundance Film Festival, based on Dark Castle’s $35 million P&A commitment. But the movie bombed Friday. Still, it overcame cease and desist letters from Fox lawyers worried about the genetically-manufactured creature's similarity to the Na’vi creatures of Avatar, and then survived nearly being dumped into a SciFi Channel premiere. Warner Bros is quick to point out it's only distributing this negative pickup by Joel Silver in the U.S. and has zero financial interest. (For background, see Mike Fleming's The Life of 'Splice,' The Unlikeliest Major Studio Summer Release.)

Here's the Top Ten whose numbers will be refined in the morning:

1. Shrek Forever After 3D (DWA/Par) Week 3 [4,386 Theaters]
Friday $6.5M, Estimated Weekend $24M, Estimated Cume $183.5M
2. Get Him To The Greek (Universal) NEW [2,697]
Friday $6.2M, Estimated Weekend $17.4M
3. Killers (Lionsgate) NEW [2,859]
Friday $5.6M, Estimated Weekend $15.5M
4. Sex And The City 2 (NL/Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,445]
Friday $4.4M (-66%), Estimated Weekend $13M, Estimated Cume $74.3M
5. Prince of Persia (Disney) Week 2 [3,646]
Friday $4.1M (-60%), Estimated Weekend $14M, Estimated Cume $61M
6. Marmaduke (Fox) NEW [3,213]
Friday $3.4M, Estimated Weekend $10M
7. Splice (Dark Castle/WB) NEW [2,450]
Friday $2.7M, Estimated Weekend $7M
8. Iron Man 2 (Marvel/Paramount) Week 5 [3,007]
Friday $2.1M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $292M
9. Robin Hood (Universal) Week 4 [2,599]
Friday $1.4M, Estimated Weekend $4.7M, Estimated Cume $94.6M
10. Letters To Juliet (Summit) Week 4 [1,962]
Friday $995K, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $43.5M