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2010 at the Box Office - Page 15

post #421 of 1041
3/5/10 at 8:57pm
And watch it (Alice) drop like a rock next weekend.
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post #422 of 1041
3/6/10 at 3:09am
Thread Starter 
http://www.deadline.com/2010/03/100m-weekend-for-alice-in-wonderland/

FRIDAY 11:25 PM UPDATE: Disney's Alice In Wonderland is a monster hit. It clearly becomes the best March release ever with $45 million on Friday.  If that holds up, the Tim Burton-directed, Johnny Depp starring fantasy flick could have a $115M-$120M opening weekend for the biggest 3D pic debut ever. (These numbers are blowing away Avatar's first weekend.) The only other major newcomer this weekend was Overture's Brooklyn's Finest directed by Anton Fuqua and starring Richard Gere, Don Cheadle and Ethan Hawke opened like most R-rated action films: it had a $5.2M Friday for a likely $14.5M weekend.
 

Here's the Top 10 as of Friday. (Numbers will be refined in the morning.)
 

1. Alice In Wonderland (Disney) NEW [3,728 Theaters]
Friday $45M, Estimated Weekend $120M 
2. Brooklyn's Finest (Overture) NEW [1,936 Theaters]
Friday $5.2M, Estimated Weekend $14.5M
3. Shutter Island (Paramount) Week 3 [3,178 Theaters]
Friday $4.0M, Estimated Weekend $13.5M, Estimated Cume $95.5M
4. Cop Out (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,150 Theaters]
Friday $3.0M (-50%), Estimated Weekend $9.5M, Estimated Cume $32.2M
5. The Crazies (Overture) Week 2 [2,479 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M (-58%), Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $27.4M
6. Valentine's Day (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,040 Theaters] 
Friday $1.4M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated Cume $106.4M
7. Avatar (Fox) [2,163 Theaters] Week 12
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M, Estimated Cume $717.7M
8. Percy Jackson (Fox) Week 4 [2,994 Theaters]
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $5.2M, Estimated Cume $78.0M
9. Dear John (Sony) Week 5 [2,496 Theaters]
Friday $1.0M, Estimated Weekend $3.2M, Estimated Cume $76.8M
10. The Wolfman (Universal) Week 4 [1,829 Theaters]
Friday $500K, Estimated Weekend $1.7M, Estimated Cume $60.4

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post #423 of 1041
3/6/10 at 1:25pm
Thread Starter 
Friday Estimates

#1 "Alice in Wonderland" $41.0 million
#2 "Brooklyn's Finest" $4.7 million
#3 "Shutter Island" $4.0 million ($86.5 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Cop Out" $2.8 million ($26.1 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "The Crazies" $2.3 million ($22.7 million) 61% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Avatar" $2.0 million ($714.5 million) 36% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Valentine's Day" $1.4 million ($103.6 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" $1.4 million ($74.3 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Dear John" $970K ($74.8 million) 37% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Crazy Heart" $925K ($27.1 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday increase
#11 "The Wolfman" $450K ($59.3 million) 60% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Tooth Fairy" $405K ($55.0 million) 45% Friday-to-Friday drop

"Alice in Wonderland" got off to a monster start as it earned the 11th best opening day mark in history (the 7th biggest Friday debut) and will deliver to director Tim Burton the biggest opening haul of his career (besting the $68.5 million take of "Planet of the Apes").  For star Johnny Depp, the film will deliver to him an unprecedented third $100 million-plus launch (joining the last two 'Pirates of the Caribbean' movies).  'Alice' will earn the biggest March opening in history (passing the $70.9 million tally of "300"), as well as become history's second best non-summer debut (behind the $140.7 million take of 'New Moon').

"Brooklyn's Finest" got off to a decent start as it pulled in close to $5 million yesterday.  Look for an opening weekend tally in the area of $12-$15 million.

The overall box office will pass the $2 billion mark in record time, besting last year's pace. 
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post #424 of 1041
3/11/10 at 2:29pm
 Probably old news here (there was a similar piece in the WSJ last month) but eh...: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/11/business/media/11futures.html

--
H
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post #425 of 1041
3/11/10 at 3:32pm

Seems like it could be fun.  I'd be willing to bet a good sum that AVATAR goes down in less than 5 years.

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post #426 of 1041
3/11/10 at 5:26pm
I doubt that Avatar's record is in danger of being beaten anytime soon. Titanic held the #1 spot for more than 10 years.
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post #427 of 1041
3/11/10 at 7:18pm
As more and more 3D screens come online, allowing exhibitors to sell more and more higher priced tickets, larger grosses will become easier to achieve. So the record may not be as untouchable as it once was.
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post #428 of 1041
3/11/10 at 7:27pm
By the time the next Batman arrives in Summer 2012 it'll likely challenge for the top spot. Nolan will probably shoot it completely in IMAX this time, which will guarantee it'll make the inflated ticket price again.
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post #429 of 1041
3/11/10 at 8:29pm
We'll just have to wait and see, but I consider Avatar more of a cultural phenomenon than anything else. Any challenger to it will have to be a phenomenon as well. THAT isn't something that's easy to create or duplicate, high 3D ticket prices or not.
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post #430 of 1041
3/11/10 at 11:11pm
I predict the re-release of Titanic in 3D in 2011 will give it a chance to reclaim the top spot.
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post #431 of 1041
3/13/10 at 8:54am
^ Great point.
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post #432 of 1041
3/14/10 at 1:25am
 Is Titanic 3-D confirmed for 2011? 
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post #433 of 1041
3/14/10 at 5:27am
An old article had them re-releasing it in 3D in 2011 but it now looks like it's been pushed back to 2012 to coincide with the 100th anniversary of the sinking:

http://www.cinematical.com/2009/07/25/sdcc-titanic-going-3d-lord-of-the-rings-3d-on-hold/

--->

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/technologylive/post/2010/03/james-cameron/1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete-D View Post

 Is Titanic 3-D confirmed for 2011? 
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post #434 of 1041
3/14/10 at 10:25am
Converting flat films to 3D just sounds like the 21st Century equivalent to colourizing films. If Cameron wants to continue using 3D, he should just get on with making a new film instead of wasting time and money monkey wrenching his old films such as "Titanic". "Battle Angel" would be a good place to start.
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post #435 of 1041
3/14/10 at 11:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S View Post

Converting flat films to 3D just sounds like the 21st Century equivalent to colourizing films.


I get your point but James Cameron is involved with Titanic being 3-Dized so it's not the same thing.
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post #436 of 1041
3/14/10 at 12:06pm
I'm not sure how a period drama would really benefit from 3D. It seems more suited to action/fantasy FX films.
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post #437 of 1041
3/14/10 at 12:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisR View Post



I get your point but James Cameron is involved with Titanic being 3-Dized so it's not the same thing.

It is his film and I suppose if he wants to "murder" it then that is his right. However, I don't particularly subscribe to the party line that as long as it is the director screwing with a previous work then it is all right. I believe that in most cases an older work should be left alone. Coppola re-editing "Apocalypse Now" didn't necessarily improve the film. Lucas constantly jiggering with the original "Star Wars" definitely didn't make it better. The "restored", longer cut of "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly", although considered Leone's "preferred" cut, certainly didn't make the film better: just longer. 

I don't know what Cameron thinks 3D is going to add to "Titanic". It just seems like a cheap gimmick to me, but I guess we will see in two years whether "King" Cameron's fiddling will really add anything to the film.
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post #438 of 1041
3/14/10 at 12:26pm
Thread Starter 
Weekend Estimates

#1 "Alice in Wonderland" $62.0 million ($208.6 million) -47%
#2 "Green Zone" $14.5 million
#3 "She's Out of My League" $9.6 million
#4 "Remember Me" $8.3 million
#5 "Shutter Island" $8.1 million ($108.0 million) -39%
#6 "Our Family Wedding" $7.6 million
#7 "Avatar" $6.6 million ($730.4 million) -19%
#8 "Brooklyn's Finest" $4.3 million ($21.4 million) -68%
#9 "Cop Out" $4.2 million ($39.4 million) -55%
#10 "The Crazies" $3.7 million ($33.4 million) -48%
#11 "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" $3.1 million ($82.3 million) -39%
#12 "Crazy Heart" $3.1 million ($34.2 million) -6%

2010's box office continues to be absolutely scorching as the overall yearly domestic haul passed the $2 billion in record-breaking time (about four days faster than last year's record trek).  Business was up a stellar 53% from year-ago levels, as well as being 27% stronger than this frame from '08.  2010's year-to-date domestic haul is currently $2.246 billion marking a 9% improvement over last year ($2.064 billion), up 24% compared to '08 ($1.808 billion), 30% better than '07 ($1,727 billion), and a 34% increase over '06 ($1.675 billion).

After earning the biggest March opening in history last weekend (as well as the largest debut tally for a 3D movie), Disney's "Alice in Wonderland" pocketed the sixth strongest second-weekend haul in ever as it pulled in $62 million.  The 3D flick has now tallied a whopping $208.6 million after only ten days in theaters.  That is fourth fastest trek to the double-century mark, tying "Avatar" while coming in behind "The Dark Knight", Transformers 2 (both doing it in five days), Pirates 2, 'New Moon', Spidey 2, 'Revenge of the Sith' (each taking eight days), Spidey 3, Pirates 3, and "Spider-Man" (each taking nine days).

A final domestic haul well north of the triple-century mark is now expected as every studio in the industry is now looking to convert their major upcoming tent pole releases into the 3D format to capitalize on what "Avatar" started.  'Alice' looks headed for no less than a $350 million final domestic tally, easily making the film the strongest performer yet of the seven films that director Tim Burton and star Johnny Depp have collaborated on.  Burton's next film, the vampire tale "The Dark Shadows", will also star Depp.

Universal's "Green Zone" came in a bit below industry expectations as it debuted with $14.5 million, while Paramount's "She's Out of My League" ($9.6 million) and Summit's "Remember Me" ($8.3 million) opened in line with studio projections.  The three films had per-theater averages of $4,840 (3,003 locations), $3,248 (2,956 locations), and $3,752 (2,212 locations) respectively.  "Green Zone" cost about $100 million to make, so it will have to show strong legs in the coming weeks if the studio hopes to break even.  "She's Out of My League" and "Remember Me" both had production costs in the range of $15-$20 million.

Paramount's "Shutter Island" became the third $100 million-plus domestic performer of the year thus far.  Fox Searchlight's "Our Family Wedding" earned a solid $7.6 million from only 1,605 theaters, giving it a sturdy average of $4,735 (the third best of the top 12).  Fox's "Avatar" has now tallied a whopping $730.3 million domestically as it closes in the $2.7 billion mark worldwide.  Overture's "Brooklyn's Finest" took a 68% free-fall this weekend as it has now earned just over $21 million.  WB's "Cop Out" is now officially the most successful film to be directed by Kevin Smith (passing the $31.5 million tally of 'Zack & Miri'.  "Cop Out" looks on course for a final mark in the neighborhood of $50-$55 million. 

Overture's "The Crazies" has so far earned $33.4 million, Fox's 'Percy Jackson' passed the $80 million plateau, while Fox Searchlight's "Crazy Heart" rounded out the top 12.  "Crazy Heart", fresh off of winning two Oscars last weekend (one of them going to star Jeff Bridges) has now pulled in more than $34 million.

On top of snagging a Best Actress Oscar for star Sandra Bullock, WB's smash hit "The Blind Side" came in 13th this weekend and has now tallied $252.7 million domestically, making it not only the biggest hit in Bullock's career, but also the 10th biggest domestic mark ever for WB. 

Next weekend will see the releases of Sony's "The Bounty Hunter", Fox's "Diary of a Wimpy Kid", and Universal's "Repo Man".  While all three should have solid debuts, "Alice in Wonderland" will very likely make it three-in-a-row in the top spot.
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post #439 of 1041
3/14/10 at 12:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S View Post

It is his film and I suppose if he wants to "murder" it then that is his right. However, I don't particularly subscribe to the party line that as long as it is the director screwing with a previous work then it is all right. I believe that in most cases an older work should be left alone. Coppola re-editing "Apocalypse Now" didn't necessarily improve the film. Lucas constantly jiggering with the original "Star Wars" definitely didn't make it better. The "restored", longer cut of "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly", although considered Leone's "preferred" cut, certainly didn't make the film better: just longer. 

 


Once again, I follow what you mean but that analogy doesn't apply. They're not adding or re-arranging scenes or adding new special effects to Titanic, they're taking it from 2-D to 3-D. It's not like the movie isn't going to be available to be seen in 2-D anymore (on video anyway) so I don't see anything to worry about.

Frankly, I don't think 3-D is going to be all that unique or as much of a draw to audiences by the end of the summer so 2 years from now, I think people will see Titanic because they like it rather than because there's the gimmick of 3-D this time.
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post #440 of 1041
3/15/10 at 1:03am
I wonder which projects at Disney are getting fasttracked for an   "UpGrade"/"Sequel"  now?  Alice's gross is too juicy a prospect not to sink their teeth into other likely properties.

I'm going to take a wild guess and say that about six months ago, Disney put out quiet development feelers on at least three possible upgradesequels ala Alice of their animated classics.  And I think seeing the return they're getting with a live action/animated/3d version of an animated classic they're going to go all in with at least two new upgrades.  I figure human-ish stories with fantasy elements are the most likely:


Snow White - less likely because it's a Princess centric movie, but lots of commerciality in upgrading the Dwarfs, room for sequelization, sort of.  a straight up remake of this might be the best route.
Pinocchio - less likely because its been tried live action before and turned out badly, also no room for pseudo sequalizatoin.
Peter Pan - sounds like a slam dunk, despite Hook, the Disney Sequels and the recent amazing live action film, it's extremely boy friendly, with great potential to make it grrl power too.  Lots of action possibilites and it plays into the Pirates love, they've probably already signed Geoffrey Rush to play Hook/Mr. Darling.  Also, the basic structure of Alice works perfectly for this. Wendy, about to get married, takes off to Neverland to right whats gone wrong there now that she's tried to grow up.  I think this is so likely I'd expect an announcement within a month.
Cinderella - less likely, too princess centric, way too passive, no magic, and the Mice/Cat are really the best part anyway.
Sleeping Beauty -  I can see this, if the advertising heavily featured Prince Philip, lots of spectacular magic from the fairies and more action/dragons, A sequel could seem possible, but the story is less open ended for a sequel than Peter and Alice, since it's a happily ever after ending.  Play against the happily ever after, bring in Baba Yaga as Maleficent's mother, and possibly resurrect Maleficient, you could have a possible franchise in your hands.  Russian Sleeping Beauty meets Celtic Beowulf, so to speak. :-p
Sword in the Stone - another slam dunk for the upgrade, because you've got an open ended wrap up of the story. Lots of fantastical elements to work with, Much more source material, and you can draw in the girls by working a love triangle between the gawky, teenage (but King) Arthur and The Cool Lancelot and the Fiery/Fiesty wants-to-be-a-knight-so-she-sneaks-into-the-jousting-lists-of-a-tournament Guinevere.  All three have to team up with Merlin and Archimedes to battled Mordred who's discovered black magic and we'll futz with the legend and we'll call Mordred Arthur's jealous half-brother for fun (and to avoid sticky, what's a bastard?" questions).
The Jungle Book  - Another great possibiility, but they've done a sequel already.  Still Bagheera and Baloo and the other critters interacting with Mowgli is rich and interesting but something tells me the jungle with talking beasties is just too ordinary for them to be interested in.  No magic and the lead isn't white, and with live action, a non-white lead will be a very tough sell at Disney.
Robin Hood - Nope
The Black Cauldron - interesting, but I think that ship has sailed with Narnia.
The Little Mermaid - it's sort of too recent a film to attempt it but if they do it as a straight up remake there's a lot of potential there. Have you ever seen a Mermaid work the ocean the way the Na'Vi worked the skies?  I don't think so.  
Beauty and the Beast- also recent, also I think they would be a little squicked out at having a live action girl fall for an animal. Fox News would have a fit.  The left wing would have a fit about teaching girls they can 'rescue' abusive men from themselves.
Aladdin - Prince of Persia
Hercules - Clash of the Titans
Tarzan - Tons of source material to work with, and the animated is the most spectacular tarzan in the jungle footage ever.  open-ended ending. White leads.  possible Avatar-esque theme of defending the jungle against rapacious colonizers.  It could work. Not considered a classic like Mermaid or Beauty, so no real 'remake!'  uproar.


I say we see Sleeping Beauty, Sword and the Stone and/or Peter Pan all announced before Alice's DVD release date.  Sleeping Beauty and Sword and the Stone have the most franchise potential which Alice and Pan don't have.

 

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post #441 of 1041
3/15/10 at 6:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S View Post

It is his film and I suppose if he wants to "murder" it then that is his right. However, I don't particularly subscribe to the party line that as long as it is the director screwing with a previous work then it is all right.

I interpreted TravisR's comment about feeling OK that it's Cameron overseeing Titanic's conversion to 3D more related to Cameron's better grasp of the 3D process, and his understanding of what makes a good 3D movie as opposed to simply viewing 3D as a "gimmick".

I can understand that feeling - I'd feel much better about Cameron doing this sort of thing than, say, Michael Bay, but overall I agree with many in this thread that sees little actual benefit to the story of Titanic through the use of 3D.

Also, with regard to the comment about a re-release helping Titanic reclaim the top domestic box office crown - personally, I don't think it would happen.  At this rate - Avatar looks to finish north of $750 and maybe approaching $770.  I don't think any re-release of Titanic would haul in over $100 million... but that's just my gut feeling.  Either way, Cameron will own #1 and #2 for many years...
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post #442 of 1041
3/15/10 at 3:27pm
A film released in March is probably going to earn what most summer blockbusters would be happy with.
I think Cameron owning at least the No2 spot is going to last less time than you think..
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post #443 of 1041
3/21/10 at 11:28am
Thread Starter 
Weekend Estimates

#1 "Alice in Wonderland" $34.5 million ($265.8 million) -45%
#2 "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" $21.8 million
#3 "The Bounty Hunter" $21.0 million
#4 "Repo Men" $6.2 million
#5 "Green Zone" $6.0 million ($24.7 million) -58%
#6 "She's Out of My League" $5.9 million ($20.0 million) -40%
#7 "Shutter Island" $4.8 million ($115.8 million) -41%
#8 "Avatar" $4.0 million ($736.9 million) -39%
#9 "Our Family Wedding" $3.8 million ($13.7 million) -50%
#10 "Remember Me" $3.3 million ($13.9 million) -60%
#11 "The Ghost Writer" $2.1 million ($6.8 million) +71%
#12 "Brooklyn's Finest" $1.7 million ($24.9 million) -63%

Business continues to be brisk at the box office as the top 12 films pulled in more than $115 million this weekend, marking a 19% bump over last year, on top of the 18% increase compared to this frame in '08.  Disney's "Alice in Wonderland" made it three-in-a-row at #1 this weekend, but looks to fall to second place next week with the release of DreamWorks' "How to Train Your Dragon", which going wide in 3D.  If that film does open at #1, that would mean that of the 13 weeks of 2010 thus far, 9 of the #1 finishers will have been in 3D.  Look for this to be a continuing trend as we continue through the year.
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post #444 of 1041
3/21/10 at 11:53am
Great debut for "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" which is both a good book and a surprisingly funny movie.  I think that $21M haul is more then it's entire budget.  So, good chances we see others in the series made into films.  It's cute.  I'd put it in the same library as say "Sandlot" and others.
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post #445 of 1041
3/22/10 at 1:13am
 I think "Hot Tub Time Machine" could be a surprise hit next weekend. 
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post #446 of 1041
3/22/10 at 7:35am
No offense, Pete, but I really don't see that happening. The title is as weird as Snakes on a Plane, and that financial disappointment had Samuel L. Jackson championing it. HTTM is also getting very little advertising.

How many 3D screens is Clash of the Titans taking from Alice and Dragon when it debuts? Will all three of them still offer the 3D at that point? Until more 3D screens are put into the theaters, it will be interesting how the studios decide to schedule the future releases. Will we see a summer of 2011 where there is only a two-week window to see the tentpoles in 3D? Will theater chains offer several different movies per day on their 3D capable screens? The answers could help determine the near-term future of the new market.
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post #447 of 1041
3/22/10 at 10:38am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarkin The Ewok View Post

No offense, Pete, but I really don't see that happening. The title is as weird as Snakes on a Plane, and that financial disappointment had Samuel L. Jackson championing it. HTTM is also getting very little advertising.

Not sure what channels you're watching, or not watching, but I'm seeing tons of TV advertising for HTTM over the past several weeks. Though I also agree it's an unlikely hit (and have to wonder what the exec was thinking that gave it the green-light).
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post #448 of 1041
3/22/10 at 1:51pm
I know a lot of college students and recent college grads that can't wait to see it.
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post #449 of 1041
3/22/10 at 8:18pm
Adult Swim has been pimping the movie as well. Kind of a surprise, as the main plot device is shamelessly stolen from an episode of Harvey Birdman.
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post #450 of 1041
3/23/10 at 4:47pm
The red band trailer makes it look a lot better than the "Approved for All Audiences" one. It could be a hit.
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