2010 at the Box Office - Page 13

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/will-avatar-get-a-dear-john-letter-is-this-the-weekend-technopic-falls-to-2/

FRIDAY 8 PM UPDATE: Sources tell me that Relativity's Dear John looks headed to a much bigger than expected $15+ million opening for today based on very early North American box office numbers. "The East Coast already has taken in $6.5M and that's without the late show," one insider gushed to me. Which means the military love story distributed by Sony/Screen Gems will definitely beat out Avatar for No. 1 Friday. That puts G.I. Joe's Channing Tatum and Mamma Mia!'s Amanda Seyfried on course for a $30+M weekend since the pic won't be hurt by Super Bowl Sunday. Though the East Coast's monster winter storm could depress box office overall, it won't affect finish order. Sony/Screen Gems attributes Dear John's success to some great field marketing, including military family screenings at installations like Fort Bragg. Meanwhile, Lionsgate's From Paris With Love with John Travolta is looking "very soft" with only a $4 million debut today for probably a $10M weekend.

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Dear John" $32.4 million
#2 "Avatar" $23.6 million ($630.1 million) -25%
#3 "From Paris with Love" $8.1 million
#4 "Edge of Darkness" $7.0 million ($29.1 million) -59%
#5 "Tooth Fairy" $6.5 million ($34.3 million) -35%
#6 "When in Rome" $5.5 million ($20.9 million) -55%
#7 "The Book of Eli" $4.8 million ($82.2 million) -46%
#8 "Crazy Heart" $3.7 million ($11.2 million) +58%
#9 "Legion" $3.4 million ($34.7 million) -53%
#10 "Sherlock Holmes" $2.63 million ($201.6 million) -42%
#11 "The Blind Side" $2.60 million ($241.6 million) -14%
#12 "Up in the Air" $2.4 million ($76.7 million) -16%

The industry continues to enjoy scorching business at the box office as this weekend's numbers were up 2% compared to last year, as well as being 3% stronger than this frame in '08.  Overall, the year-to-date numbers for '10 are $1.211 billion, which is 2% better than last year ($1.189 billion), up 20% compared to '08 ($1.009 billion), an impressive 43% improvement over '07 ($850.2 million), and 33% stronger than '06 ($911.5 million).

After seven weeks at #1, this weekend saw "Avatar" fall to the second slot as Sony's "Dear John" blew away industry expectations to earn the biggest Super Bowl weekend opening in history, besting the $31.1 million launch of the 'Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus' 3D concert film from two years ago.  The film's stellar average of $10,913 from its 2,969 theaters was easily the best of the top 12.  The studio is expecting this one to become a leggy hit in the coming weeks, ultimately leading it to a final domestic haul north of the century mark.

Fox's "Avatar" became only the second film in history (behind "Titanic") to earn north of $20 million in eight-weeks of business.  The film has now netted $630.1 million domestically, as well as a jaw-dropping $2.2 billion globally.  Lionsgate's "From Paris with Love" was met with a very lukewarm reaction from moviegoers and will more than likely fade quickly from theaters within the next few weeks. 

This weekend also marks the first time in history that the industry as seen each of the first six weeks where the #1 movie has topped the $30 million plateau.  The studios hope the momentum continues as next weekend will see a fierce battle for #1 as WB launches the ensemble romantic/comedy "Valentine's Day", Fox will release the fantasy "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief", and Universal debuts the horror flick "The Wolfman".  Business should be pretty intense next weekend.

The grosses for "Avatar" starting from January 1st will be counted toward the total haul of 2010.

Friday Estimates

#1 "Valentine's Day" $14.6 million
#2 "The Wolfman" $9.9 million
#3 "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" $9.8 million
#4 "Avatar" $4.6 million ($642.2 million) 26% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Dear John" $4.1 million ($42.0 million) 70% Friday-to-Friday drop (Ouch!)
#6 "Tooth Fairy" $1.3 million ($37.3 million) 21% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "From Pairs with Love" $1.2 million ($12.3 million) 60% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Edge of Darkness" $1.0 million ($32.5 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Crazy Heart" $870K ($13.4 million) 20% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "When in Rome" $815K ($23.4 million) 60% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "The Book of Eli" $715K ($84.7 million) 53% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "The Blind Side" $460K ($242.9 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday drop

The various studio execs in Tinseltown continue to give one another high-fives as the box office continues to be absolutely scorching, on top of still running (slightly) ahead of last year's record-shattering numbers.  "Valentine's Day" will earn the biggest opening of this young year as it looks headed for a Friday-to-Sunday haul in the neighborhood of $45-$50 million.  'Percy Jackson' and "The Wolfman" will both end up debuting north of the $25 million mark, while "Avatar" continues its record-breaking run in theaters.  "Dear John" suffered a steep Friday-to-Friday hit of 70%, but is expected to rebound today and tomorrow.  This will end up being the biggest Valentine's Day/Presidents' Day weekend in Hollywood history.

Weekend Estimates

(4-day estimates will be up tomorrow)

#1 "Valentine's Day" $52.4 million
#2 "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" $31.1 million
#3 "The Wolfman" $30.7 million
#4 "Avatar" $22.0 million ($659.6 million) -4%
#5 "Dear John" $15.3 million ($53.2 million) -50%
#6 "Tooth Fairy" $5.6 million ($41.5 million) -16%
#7 "From Paris with Love" $4.7 million ($15.9 million) -42%
#8 "Edge of Darkness" $4.6 million ($36.1 million) -33%
#9 "Crazy Heart" $4.0 million ($16.5 million) +12%
#10 "When in Rome" $3.4 million ($26.0 million) -38%
#11 "The Book of Eli" $3.3 million ($87.2 million) -31%
#12 "The Blind Side" $2.2 million ($244.7 million) -12%

Hollywood enjoyed the biggest Valentine's Day/Presidents Day weekend frame in history as moviegoers shelled out nearly $180 million on the top 12 movies at the box office which saw the top three movies each earn more than $30 million (an industry first for the frame).  The 4-day figures could put the mark over $200 million as 2010 continues to produce massive numbers at multiplexes.  Business was up 14% compared to this weekend last year, as well as an eye-popping 56% compared to this frame in '08.  Year-to-date levels put this year at 2% higher than last year ($1.440 billion vs. $1.406 billion), up 23% against '08 ($1.173 billion), 44% stronger than '07 ($1.002 billion), and a 35% improvement over '06 ($1.068 billion).

WB's "Valentine's Day" earned the biggest opening of the year as it pulled in a much higher than expected $52.4 million, marking the third best February debut in history behind 'The Passion' ($83.8 million) and "Hannibal" ($58.0 million).  The $52.4 million launch also gave the film the second largest ever for a romantic comedy, coming in behind the $57 million opening haul of "Sex & the City".  The ensemble rom/com earned an impressive per-theater average of $14,300 from its 3,665 locations, which was easily the best of the top 12.  WB expects this one to have little difficulty in ultimately passing the century mark.  The film cost a modest $52 million to make and will end up being a very profitable hit for the studio.  A sequel (titled "New Year's Eve") is already in the works.

Fox's 'Percy Jackson & the Olympians' also got off to a great start as it took in just over $31 million this weekend.  The film, which cost nearly $100 million to make, earned a solid average of $9,267 from its 3,356 theaters.  The studio is optimistic that this one will end up being one of the bigger hits of this early part 2010.

Universal's "The Wolfman" also packed theaters this weekend as it opened with just under $31 million, giving it a per-theater average of $9,506 from its 3,222 locations, which was the second best of the top 12.  At a cost of $150 million this one will have to pull in some fat numbers both here and abroad if the studio expects a decent profit.

Fox's "Avatar" made it nine weeks in a row that it has earned at least $20 million at the box office ("Titanic" holds the record with ten weeks of $20 million-plus earnings).  The blockbuster has now earned close to $660 million domestically.  Globally, the film has tallied about $2.3 billion.  A final domestic mark north of the $700 million plateau is now pretty much a lock. 

Sony's "Dear John" was off about 50% and has so far tallied more than $53 million.  A final haul in the neighborhood of $85-$100 million is now expected.  Fox's "Tooth Fairy" continues to show surprisingly strong legs as it has now pulled in $41.5 million.  The family flick cost less than $50 million to make and could end up seeing modest returns once overseas figures are factored in.  LGF's "From Paris with Love" hasn't caught on with moviegoers as it has only managed to earn about $16 million thus far.  The action flick cost over $50 million to make.  WB's "Edge of Darkness" is currently sitting on a domestic mark of $36 million.  Not too impressive for a movie that cost $80 million produce.  Fox Searchlight's "Crazy Heart" saw a 12% increase in business and has now taken in $16.5 million.  The movie, which only cost $7 million to make, is expected to nab a Best Actor Oscar for star Jeff Bridges as well as boasting Oscar nominated work by Maggie Gyllenhaal.  Disney's "When in Rome" has so far earned $26 million.  WB's "The Book of Eli" is closing in on the $90 million mark domestically.  WB's "The Blind Side" rounds out the top 12 as it looks about a week away from passing the $250 million plateau.

Next weekend should see business remain strong as Paramount releases the thriller "Shutter Island".  The latest from Oscar-winning director Martin Scorsese and star Leonardo DiCaprio is expected to put in a very strong challenge for the top spot at the box office next week.  This will be the fourth pairing of the actor and director and each of their first three films turned out to be big box office hits.  All three also ended up being Best Picture nominees with "The Departed" winning the award, as well as Scorsese's long deserved Best Director trophy (his first and only win the category).