Survivor - Samoa - Page 8

At one point, females actually outnumbered male winners--but ever since season 9, the only times women have won are seasons with returning players. It'll be interesting to see if that holds through next season (if Samoa doesn't break the streak first).

Last night's episode proved that episodes that focus heavily on Shambo are even worse than episodes that focus heavily on Russell, which aren't my cup of tea in the first place. No matter what anyone thinks of this season quality-wise (I still say there's no way it ends up outside of the bottom three), this is by far the most unbalanced season ever when it comes to the editing.

I liked how Shannon started chowing down on her booby prize like it was the best thing she ever ate.

Mick's burger plate made ME hungry - I can't imagine how Jaison sitting right next to him felt. And he wasn't really in much danger this week anyway. In fact it would have been better to let Dave win immunity, then Shambo would have been on board getting John.

Here's a list of Survivor Winners.  7 of 19 are female.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Survivor_winners

It appears I named them all and there are no other female winners.

BTW, there's a Phillipines Survivor winner on that Wiki list in case you're wondering who JC Tiuseco is.  So it's really 7 of 18.

Here's a list by season:

http://www.listafterlist.com/ListResults/tabid/57/ListID/7116/Default.aspx
Edited by Hanson - 12/5/09 at 7:56pm

Oh yeah, that's right they never did tell us about how shambos chicken turned out. All that bitching about it and nothing on wether or not dave was happy with her cooking.

What would have been funny is if John had decided to let the cat out of the bag about Russell having the idol on his way out of tribal. That would have been priceless!  Only he didn't because again, he doesn't suspect Russell in leading all the lemmings to vote for him. LOL!

I figured maybe it wouldn't be cool to actually name the winners in case Ron decided to get caught up on past seasons. 

You're right about that, I was too busy showing off to take that into account. That explains why Patrick would spoiler references to past winners. I was wondering why he did that.

Could he get caught up?  There are several seasons I missed because I was working swing shift that I thought aren't on DVD yet.  Is there somewhere I could catch them?

Some of the more recent ones should still be up at CBS.com. As for the earlier ones that aren't on DVD (Africa, Marquesas, Thailand, Amazon), I don't know if there will ever be a non-illegal way to watch those again. Hey, now that Ron's a fan, could he maybe use his mad HTF connections to score us DVD releases of those four (and 11+)?

I think a while back didn't they commit to these running on the Gameshow network?

I know for a while they aired each season on the "Outdoor Life Network."  I'm not sure that exists anymore. 

I honestly don't know what to make of this ep.  It was like two abbreviated episodes combined.  What was the logic behind this anyway?  One could first assume that they have a set number of episodes and they needed to get rid of an extra player, but then again there were two who went home sick and at least one of those eps they still had to vote someone off.  If no one went home early what would they have done?

Anyway.  No real surprise tonight.  I don't know what the hell was in Monica's head.  She was looking so smug and confident even after getting voted off.  What was it she alluded to during the epilogue - that if she was going to go home she wanted to give everyone something to think about?  Given that we are at the end of the season and Brett is the last man standing from his tribe the only thing left is for the remaining players to start eating each other alive.  So whatever she thought she did was going to happen anyway.

Probst makes an interesting point in his blog; that she told Russell that she can make or break him with the jury.  She can go back to the Ponderosa and say whatever she wants to start influencing jurors away from Russell.

I'm guessing Russell survives the next ep (it'd be stupid to not play the idol on the last chance), but gets voted off during the finale ep.  i wouldn't be surprised if Brett makes it to the end and ends up winning it - not that I'm rooting for him.

The producers actually plan for extra contestants to take into account injury or quitting.  Reportedly, Eric and Natalie were alternates added into the mix at the last minute, perhaps because they knew Mike could have a medical issue (he was actually selected for Tocantins, but he was too fat to participate and had to lose a lot of weight just to make it on Samoa).  It's easier to plan double eliminations on down the line than have no tribal, although this season they ended up having both.  Had Mike and Russell not been taken off the show by medical, the planned double elimination would have taken care of two more cuts.

Jaison is really starting to come out of his shell.  First there was last week's canny assessment of Shambo's psyche, and last night he defused the Russell rampage by calmly explaining to Russell that Monica was just stirring up trouble to stay.  I think it might have helped that he didn't actually remember telling Monica that Russell was a millionaire or that it would be smart to vote him off after the HII was out of play (which he clearly did and was not so smart).  That genuine appearance of guilelessness appeared to have won over Russell.

Russell is still playing strong, whipping out the HII to assess his tribemates reactions at tribal, and adroitly defusing an imminent Shambo situation after voting off John.  I think everyone expected some sort of meltdown or shouting match.

If Russell has one weakness, it is his showing in immunity challenges.  He isn't terrible, but he just isn't in the running for the most part, and only came close once.  If he loses the last immunity challenge, only an idiot would let him go to final tribal council.  So that's the hole in Russell's plan.

I think Brett is just too under the radar to win.  He barely speaks and hasn't been shown to be a strategist or really anything, so it would be a blindside win, and I don't know if the producers want the game to seem that arbitrary.  The closest they got to having a "who the F is that?" winner was Danni Boatman, who did nothing but show off her hideously deformed fake boobs only to win because she was tall (that was the most unfair final immunity challenge, and the producers really crapped the bed on that one).  But at least she bid on an immunity challenge clue and made a couple of moves that propelled her to final 3.  Brett has done zilch.

Monica is a moron.  She thinks she was brilliant with "stewing the pot".  Everyone already knows that once the quiet guy is gone they have to vote off their own friends/tribe mates, it's not like she was releasing some groundbreaking info.  All she did was lay on the beach for 30 something days, then her grand exit and uber strategy was announce some equivalent to "the sky is blue".  She better be glad she's attractive.

The tribe now obviously realizes how good a game player Russell is and, unfortunately, that will probably result in his being voted off in the last episode before the jury takes over.  It's a shame because if the jurors actually were to vote for the person who truly "outplayed, outwitted and outlasted" the others (rather than vote for personal reasons) then Russell is the clear choice as one of the best players of all time.  That move last night with the "unhidden" immunity idol was great.  For a moment there I thought that Russell might have miscalculated but it's now obvious that he did his homework before his bold move at the tribal council and it was sheer brilliance.  I was half expecting Russell to turn to the camera after his strategy worked and say something like, "And that's how you don't play a hidden immunity idol and not get voted off people!."

His bold move was sheer brilliance.

At first, I was very confused.

"Why would Russell show everyone that idol prior to vote"

I asked myself, knowing that he was going to go home.

Then it made all sense to me.

He showed the idol which made people vote the other
way, in this case, for Natalie.

...and in the end, Russell keeps the Idol.

I am amazed at this guy.  He plays a great game.   

Goodbye Natalie. You should have never made it this far.

BTW, glad to see the show is being streamlines to
include two tribal councils in one hour.  Looks like
we are in fast track to get to the final three.

I still think Brett has a tremendous advantage getting inserted into the game with only 8 players left :-)

He actually talked last night.  He did win the challenge which was impressive.  he's been a no-show
in the game up until now.

No doubt Ron is bidding a good riddance to Monica, not Natalie the Butterfaced Panty Washer.

Actually, I'm starting to find Natalie to be very cute.  And it's not often that I like the under the radar players.

If Foa Foa is smart, they will eliminate Brett.  If he makes it in the finals, he will in walking away.  If they start trying to jockey for position too early, Brett can slip into the finals and take the million.  I doubt this will happen.

Russell played the idol perfectly:  bluff once at Tribal (Everyone fears you'll use it, but no one has time to talk about it or contemplate a bluff strategy), then play it at the next tribal.  The flaw in Russells game is a weakness in the interpersonal game.  Everyone knows he's a 'snake', no one has any emotional commitment to him.  He may feel he deserves to win (and he probably does) but deserves doesn't matter.  Make enough people mad at you and they'll vote their hearts.  Also telling ANYONE that you are wealthy is the height of stupidity.  Why give a million to a millionaire?  That mistake could easily cost him a jury vote if he makes it that far.  That's why, if he could, he should take Shambo with him, because Galu hates her and Foa Foa is not strongly linked to her.  Russell could beat Shambo.  I'm not sure he could beat anyone else. 

Plus in the unfair challenge department,  Terry (the fighter pilot) lost a balancing challenge on foam floats that were not size adjusted for weight in the Exile Island season.  Since he was far heavier than the other two players, they floated effortlessly on smaller floats and his sunk.  At the reunion it was revealed that he would have easily beaten either of the two surviving finalists.   

Stephen,

You got it.

The problem with Russell is that he has a big mouth.

He has gotten himself in very bad situations too many
times with running his mouth about obtaining the idol or
being a multi-millionaire.

The real problem now is that everyone is coming to the
realization that Russell is a snake.  I fear that he will not
make it beyond the next two tribal councils.   

I don;t recall Danni, but Vecepia (sp?) is the one who stands out to me as a completely undeserving winner.

Everyone on the jury right now is Galu and my impression of them is that they're all pissed off that they've been wiped out.  If Brett makes it to finals (via immunity or plan to out Russell) I'm pretty certain he'll have everyone's vote.

But you never know with this show.  We could very well end up with a Natalie / Mick final.

Another flaw in Russell's game is his ability to win challenges.  (He is okay in challenges, but I'm not sure he can beat Brett, Jaison, or Mick)  Once you get to the final five or four, generally you need to win immunity to survive to the finals.  By that point the strongest player is identified and will be voted off if they don't have immunity.  One thing that always impressed me about Amanda (Survivor China and Fans vs. Favs) is she could close the deal by winning late challenges to make the finals (she then always screwed up her presentation to the jury and jury questions)

Aw, Vecepia gets a bad rap. I'm not a fan at all and I don't like UTR-style play since it's boring to watch...but you have to hand it to her, that was one of the most topsy-turvy seasons ever; she was incredibly masterful at instigating drama but staying out of it herself. As Jeff Probst put it, in casting a player, they made an excellent choice with Vecepia. In casting a character, she was a dud.



Challenge ability is overrated--not that anyone who wins lots of challenges is inherently a worse strategic/social player than someone who doesn't (you got the best of both worlds with Tom Westman and the exact opposite with the goat of all goats Katie Gallagher in Palau). But the best players are the ones that don't need to rely on challenge wins to get to the end. The challenges are irrelevant--like you said, Amanda won several (although all her late-game wins were against other women and a gay man who weighed 90 pounds soaking wet) but came up short where it really mattered...twice. (Of course, she's so hot we can forgive her ). Terry relied solely on winning challenges (and his hidden idol) to survive--a terrible and dangerous strategy that cost him the first time he didn't have immunity to protect him. I think Russell's in the finals no matter what at this point, so this isn't a knock at him or saying that he needs to win challenges in order to get to the end. But if a player has to win a challenge in order to face the jury, whether they do or not, they obviously did something wrong to put themselves in that position--and yes, a lot of times that something is being too likable or smart.

I've always wondered why people are so concerned about getting rid of strong challenge competitors at the merge--keep the idiot jocks like Ozzy and James around and get rid of the Ciries and Tina Wessons. Sure, they'll destroy me in any physical competition but they don't have a strategic bone in their entire bodies. I can mentally outplay them at every step of the game. A rock could mentally outplay them at every step of the game. [Of course, as I said before, sometimes you get a strong challenge player who actually does have a semblance of strategic sense, like Tom or Colby. And then you have the ones who have neither skill, but they rarely make it to the merge.]

And for the record, I saw this argument come up earlier about the worry that Russell will make it to the end and lose because of a bitter jury. There is no such thing as a bitter jury! At the end of the day Survivor is a social game. If you send someone to the jury with the most brilliant strategic maneuver of all time and they're pissed off about how it went down, then you screwed up. They're not obligated to vote for you; if you managed to turn off the majority of the jurors, then you don't deserve to win. Period.

I don't agree that physical ability to win challenges is underrated.  It is not sufficient by itself to win the million but some skill I think is essential.  Look at Cerie, one of my favorite Survivor contestants.  She was brilliant at the social game, practically running the game like Russell all while seeming like the nicest person, and letting others take the heat for decisions.  In the end she could never win a challenge however, and when the cast narrows to 3 to 5 everyone is vulnerable.  It cost her both in Exile (her season I believe) and Fans vs. Faves.  Tom Westman and J.T. won the million in large part because they survived late Tribals where they would have been voted off, but kept winning challenges.  Another advantage of winning challenges is it ensures your survival for a week without alienating anyone.  It is dangerous to be super-strong at challenges (see Terry and Ozzie) but to be completely helpless in challenges is dangerous as well.   
Edited by Stephen_L - 12/17/09 at 5:40pm

 re: Russel having a big mouth. 

He seems to be flirting with "danger" quite deliberately. Wearing the idol when talking to that guy on the beach (the guy never even spotted it). Saying things like "This is too easy" when only barely out of hearing range, and so on. Maybe he's just trying to make things interesting for himself.

I wonder what Russel's strategy for getting into the final two will be. I can't imagine anyone choosing to go into tribal against him, unless he somehow got signed-in-blood deals with the Foa Foa folks.

Still can't believe they went from a 7-4 disadvantage after the merge to what, 3-4 now?

I think Russel's best card now is an unusual one: take me to the final 2, because you know that if it comes to the final two, and I'm the other one, the jury won't like me and will vote for you.

I'd use that on everyone.

 

And if you're Russel, you have to think: there are members of the jury who may hate me, but will probably vote for me because the game has been damn entertaining.

Wow.  Great ep tonight, it was good to see how quickly Russel rebuilds strategy and manages to make sacrifices when he needs to.   

Shambo was the only real choice to go once Brett won immunity.  Russel pretty much has two votes in his bag to take him farther; but now he really does need Brett to be eliminated.  If Brett gets eliminated, the Jury will be VERY interesting, as I think a lot of the Galu may hate Russell, but they will respect his game, and if all they have to vote for are Foa Foa, they'd chose him.

 

Meanwhile, if Brett stays in this to the end, he's going to walk away with it.. talk about under the radar.

And what a set of cojones NOT to play the immunity idol on the last night of its eligibility! 

Yes, his onions are even bigger than his mouth.