Re: Oscars' Best Pictures Nominees To Go From 5 To 10...
Well, having seen most of the nominees from the 10-12 nominee era of best picture, I think this is a mistake and overall a bad idea.
I don't think that had this been in place last year we would have had Dark Knight nominated, Wall*E is a possibility, but more likely than Dark Knight would have been BP nominations for films like Doubt and Revolutionary Road, in other words I expect the five other films to continue the tendancy of best picture nominees that are middle brow moderately arty fashionable dramas, rather than representing an increase in diversity across the board. This does open up room for zero to two 'edgy' picks per year, but this is noticeable in even the older years, when unlikely BP nominees such as Adventures of Robin Hood or Wizard of Oz managed to secure a nomination. Most of the time, though, I do not expect to see more films from all genres represented (such as comedy).
In other words, rather than Dark Knight, Pan's Labyrinth, Children of Men or Eternal Sunshine earning nominations you're more likely to have 'eh, more of the same' films like Far From Heaven, Little Children, Into the Wild or Crash nominated. And who would want a film like Crash to win? (oh wait...)
On the other hand, it's entirely possible this will pave the way for no traditional oscar film nominees, as it lowers the barrier in a big way for a niche film to sneak in. consider that you now only need 1/11 plus one vote to secure a best picture nomination. That's a hell of a lot easier when there's 5829 members, works out to 531 number one votes to secure a nomination rather than 973.
Still, I find it hard to believe 531 members of the academy would have put Dark Knight as their number one pick.
There is a possibility this will change voting trends. Most years, I imagine, support coallesces around 4-8 films that are considered realistically frontrunners, most academy members are aware of this and see those films in particular, because these films are more seen they are more likely to be nominated, so it is a self reinforcing cycle. The possibility exists that by lowering the barrier by 400+ votes that the 'crowd wisdom' will no longer provide a set of strong frontrunners. This may mean that only one-three films may make it past 531 votes in the first tier of voting. if so, I think you can only rely on another one-three films per tier of voting in order to secure 531 votes. That makes the third place nomination votes more important than ever and makes the fourth and fifth place nomination votes matter for the first time pretty much ever.
Harvey Weinstein made a career out of getting his films nominated by talking people into giving him number two and number three place nomination slots (rather than trying to persuade a number one placement from them, which many would view with a bit of effrontery), this expansion of ten nominees makes that strategy all the more effective and useful this year than in other years.
What I expect this year, in terms of nominees
5 middle brow Weinstein esque somewhat arty films, like Doubt and Revolutionary Road
1 animated film
3 audience pleasing but artful oscary films (like Slumdog Millionaire, or for this year, Shutter Island)
1 surprise (like City of God, or in this year's case, The Hurt Locker)
