Weekend Estimates

#1 "G-Force" 32.2 million
#2 "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" $30.0 million ($221.8 million) -62%
#3 "The Ugly Truth" $27.0 million
#4 "Orphan" $12.8 million
#5 "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" $8.2 million ($171.3 million) -53%
#6 "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" $8.0 million ($379.1 million) -42%
#7 "The Hangover" $6.5 million ($247.1 million) -21%
#8 "The Proposal" $6.4 million ($140.1 million) -23%
#9 "Public Enemies" $4.2 million ($88.1 million) -46%
#10 "Bruno" $2.7 million ($56.5 million) -67%
#11 "(500) Days of Summer" $1.63 million ($3.0 million) +95%
#12 "Up" $1.61 million ($283.6 million) -49%

While this weekend's new crop of films all had very good openings, the top 12 was off by 19% compared to this frame from both last year and '07.  The top 12 movies generated just over $141 million worth of business this week.  Regardless of that, 2009's year-to-date domestic haul now stands at a whopping $6.260 billion.  That tally is 8% stronger than this point last year ($$5.792 billion), up up 10% compared to '07 ($5.692 billion), a 15% bump over '06 ($5.425 billion), and an impressive 22% increase compared to '05 ($5.142 billion).  '09 is now estimated to have sold in the neighborhood of 872 million theater admissions thus far.  The studios haven't seen ticket sales this strong since the record-breaking three-year run of 2002, 203, and 2004. 

Despite the down weekend, the studios also had something else to celebrate as the total domestic gross for June passed the $1 billion mark ($1.029 billion with five days to go in the month).  This is the first time in history that three consecutive months have earned more than $1 billion at the box office.  Overall, this is the fourth month of '09 to pass that high-water mark (January, May, June, July).  Could '09 end up becoming the first $10 billion year in the history of the box office when all is said and done?

Disney's "G-Force" opened a bit stronger than its initial tracking suggested ($25 million) as it took the top spot with more than $32 million.  The studio was encouraged by the exit polling, suggesting that this one will end up joining this year's $100 million club.  Based on the stronger-than-anticipated debut, the studio is already (not surprisingly) talking about doing a sequel.  The movie's per-theater average of $8,697 from its 3,697 locations was the third best of the top 12.

WB's "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood" took a steep 62% hit this weekend, marking the second worst sophomore weekend fall of the franchise.  The 65% second-weekend dip of 'Prisoner of Azkaban' remains the largest of the series.  Still, the movie has so far tallied just under $222 million, which is easily the biggest haul any of the previous films had after 12 days in theaters.  The studio is still cautiously predicting a final domestic gross in the area of $300 million as the movie has already tallied close to $630 million globally.

Sony's "The Ugly Truth" also got out of the gates with a very strong haul of $27 million, giving stars Katherine Heigl and Gerard Butler the second biggest opening marks of their respective careers.  For Heigl the debut trails "Knocked Up" ($30.7 million) and for Butler the opening came in behind "300" ($70.9 million).  While reviews weren't very strong, the movie benefited greatly from the female demographic, leading Sony to think that this one could turn into a leggy hit in the coming weeks.  The film's average of $9,368 from its 2,882 theaters was the second best of the top 12.

WB's "Orphan" got off to a decent start as it tallied close to $13 million, giving it a per-theater average of $4,644 from its 2,750 locations (the fifth best of the top 12).  This one isn't expected to have the strongest legs, but WB will should still see a decent profit off of this one, especially after it hits home video.

Fox's "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" has now tallied more than $171 million.  DreamWorks/Paramount's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" is now sitting on a domestic mark of just over $379 million.  WB's "The Hangover" is days away from becoming only the third R rated flick in history to tally more than $250 million domestically, joining 'The Passion' ($370.8 million) and "The Matrix Reloaded" ($281.6 million).  Disney's "The Proposal" has now netted more than $140 million.  Universal's "Public Enemies" passed the $88 million mark this week.  Universal's "Bruno" continues its fast fade as it lost another 67% worth of business this weekend, bringing its total haul to $56.5 million.  Fox Searchlight's "(500) Days of Summer" saw a 95% increase in business as it entered 58 more theaters, bringing its total count to 85.  The movie has now earned $3 million and had the best per-theater average of the top 12, posting an impressive mark of $19,176.  Pixar/Disney's "Up" rounds out the top 12 as it has now earned $283.6 million.

Next weekend will see Universal's "Funny People", Fox's "Aliens in the Attic", and Freestyle Releasing's "The Collector" all enter theaters.  Look for "Funny People", the latest from director Judd Apatow with box office heavyweight Adam Sandler headlining, to easily take the top spot as Sandler looks to earn his fourth consecutive $100 million-plus domestic performer.


Edited by TerryRL - 7/27/2009 at 03:44 am GMT
Edited by TerryRL - 8/8/2009 at 10:56 pm GMT

Given this weekend's larger than anticipated dip, DH1 is now "locked" in its November '10 release date.  On Wednesday, 'Half-Blood Prince' will open in 166 IMAX theaters, which should stop the bleeding somewhat next weekend.

From the Hollywood Reporter site...

'Harry Potter' repeats at overseas boxoffice

Total take brings Warners over $1 billion for the year

By Frank Segers
 

After its record-breaking worldwide opening the previous frame, "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" gave up considerable boxoffice altitude on the foreign circuit during the weekend but still remained a dominant No. 1 with $84.4 million lured from more than 16,000 screens in 64 territories.

Although the weekend take dropped 64% from its smashing debut, the "Prince" frame catapult Warner Bros. past the $1 billion international gross mark for the year, the ninth consecutive year the studio has surpassed that benchmark.

Fox was the first studio this year to top $1 billion internationally, doing so this month. Paramount is on the verge of joining the club, and Sony hopes to do so by early next month.

"Prince's" overseas cume is $405.3 million and its global boxoffice total is $627.2 million, making the sixth outing in the multibillion-dollar Warners franchise the 39th biggest-grossing title in history after just 12 days of release.

The latest "Potter" opened in Poland ($2 million from 196 screens) and Argentina ($1.9 million from 190 sites), but the big numbers continue to be drawn from the major territories. The top three are Germany, with $9.25 million from 1,377 screens for a cume of $40 million; France, with $9 million from 970 spots for a $33.6 million cume; and the U.K., with $8.3 million from 585 locations for a cume of $53.5 million.

"G-Force," the weekend's No. 1 film in the U.S. and Canada, dipped its toes in international waters via Disney in Chile. The first four days at 37 locations produced an estimated $300,000, or about $8,000 per screen, enough for a No. 3 market ranking.

Disney's comedy "The Proposal" opened at No. 2 in the U.K. with an estimated $3.4 million derived from 428 screens.

Finishing a solid second during the weekend was Fox's "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs," which collected $40.6 million from 9,946 situations in 102 markets. The threequel remains 2009's top grosser internationally with an overseas cume of $505.4 million (vs. $171.3 million domestic).

In third was Warners' sleeper hit "The Hangover," which continues to show unusual overseas traction for a comedy. Propelled by a $4.3 million Germany opening (including previews) at 455 screens, "Hangover" drew $10.2 million from a total of 2,300 sites in 37 territories. Its foreign cume stands at $98.5 million.

Premiering in 13 markets, "Public Enemies" drew $9.6 million from 2,600 locations in 33 territories, finishing No. 4 overall and lifting its overseas cume to $36.3 million. The best new market for the Johnny Depp crime drama was Russia, where the No. 2 tally was $2.4 million from 327 spots. It was the biggest overseas opening for a title from director Michael Mann, distributor Universal said.

Fifth on the weekend was DreamWorks/Paramount's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," which grossed $7.5 million from 6,891 spots in 63 territories. The sequel's foreign cume is at $413.2 million, compared with the $389 million grossed by the 2007 original during its entire foreign run.

A listless France debut ($1.1 million from 214 screens, ranking No. 5) held the weekend tally for "Bruno" to an estimated $6.5 million from 2,700 situations in 33 markets, bringing the overseas cume for the Sacha Baron Cohen comedy -- from co-distributors Universal, Sony and Mandate International -- to $56 million. Worldwide, "Bruno" has grossed $112.5 million to date.

Sony's "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3," co-starring Denzel Washington and John Travolta, scored close to a No. 1 finish in its Spain opening: $2.1 million from 359 screens. Overall, the weekend provided $2.8 million from 540 sites in 14 markets for an overseas cume of $9.1 million.

Also in France, the top local-language title was "Une semaine dur deux," a melodrama from TFM Distribution. Its opening round drew $1.3 million from 330 screens and a No. 4 market ranking.

Opening at No. 5 was EuropaCorp. Distribution's import of actor-director Tony Jaa's martial arts drama "Ong Bak 2," from Thailand's Sahamongkol Film; its gross was $1.2 million from 280 spots. The Weinstein Co.'s "The Reader" finished at No. 6 in France with $1 million from 285 locations in its second round, off 33% from the opener. The market cume for the Kate Winslet starrer stands at $3 million.

Other international cumes: Fox's "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian," $212.1 million; Sony's "Terminator Salvation," $237.9 million; Universal's "State of Play," $48.6 million; Fox's "X-Men Origins: Wolverine," $183.4 million; and Universal's "The Limits of Control," $30,000 (opening at five situations in Australia).

I agree with you.  "Moon", in my opinion, is an absolute work of genius that most people simply aren't seeing.  The movie has so far earned $3.4 million in its seven weeks in theaters and lost about 50 screens this weekend (it is currently playing in 201 theaters) and will lose more next week.  At this point, SPC (Sony Pictures Classics) is hoping the movie's final take matches its $5 million production budget.  I think this one will have more success on home video.  "Moon" did end up being a slightly bigger box office success than "Sunshine" ($3.7 million), another great sci-fi flick that went largely ignored by moviegoers.

No problem Greg.

The sad reality is that there really is films like "Moon" often go largely ignored by moviegoers.  If "Moon" had the benefit of a bigger star, which would necessitate a larger budget as a result, it may have had a better shot at doing well.  The general consensus is that most movies (non-tent-poles which don't really require big-name talent) need a star to "open" them and the strength of the movie itself will keep people coming back for weeks to come.  I know that there are exceptions to every rule and that sometimes man-bites-dog, but generally speaking, films like "Moon" are the ones that often earn the moniker "cult classic".  It will very likely perform much better on home video.

As for multiplexes, they simply go where the money is.  You have a very small window of opportunity to generate any kind of major income before a theater drops your film, unless of course you're a big movie that can dictate how many screens your movie will occupy (on top of how many weeks it'll stay in the best theaters) once its released (ala the second 'Transformers' movie).

Matt, "G.I. Joe" is currently tracking at having an opening weekend in the neighborhood of $40-$45 million, which is an improvement from a couple of weeks ago when it was tracking at a debut in the area of $35 million.