The expectations for "Ponyo" are very modest.  The studio is hoping the movie builds into a success largely on word-of-mouth.  The producers aren't exepcting the film to be anywhere near as successful as either "Up" or "Monsters vs. Aliens".  In saying that, "Ponyo" could end up being a dark horse choice for the Best Animated Feature Oscar.

I have no idea how this is going to be worked out.

Friday Estimates

#1 "Bruno" $14.2 million
#2 "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" $8.7 million ($100.7 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" $7.6 million ($322.6 million) 58% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Public Enemies" $4.3 million ($56.8 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "The Proposal" $3.5 million ($106.7 million) 34% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "The Hangover" $3.1 million ($215.6 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "I Love You, Beth Cooper" $2.1 million
#8 "Up" $1.5 million ($270.6 million) 47% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "My Sister's Keeper" $1.4 million ($33.1 million) 42% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" $495K ($169.5 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" $450K ($60.3 million) 53% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Star Trek" $370K ($251.2 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop

'Half-Blood Prince' is currently tracking at having a five-day haul in the neighborhood of $145-$150 million.

Some are speculating that the tracking data for HP6 thus far have been on the conservative side.  TF2 was tracking at a five-day opening haul in the area of $175 million and ended up earning $25 million more than originally projected.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if HP6 did something similar.

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Bruno" $30.4 million
#2 "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" $28.5 million ($120.6 million) -32%
#3 "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" $24.2 million ($339.2 million) -43%
#4 "Public Enemies" $14.1 million ($66.5 million) -44%
#5 "The Proposal" $10.5 million ($113.8 million) -18%
#6 "The Hangover" $9.9 million ($222.4 million) -12%
#7 "I Love You, Beth Cooper" $5.0 million
#8 "Up" $4.7 million ($273.8 million) -29%
#9 "My Sister's Keeper" $4.2 million ($35.8 million) -28%
#10 "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" $1.6 million ($61.5 million) -37%
#11 "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" $1.5 million ($170.6 million) -25%
#12 "Star Trek" $1.1 million ($251.9 million) -36%

Nearly $136 million was spent on the top 12 films at the box office this weekend, representing about a 5% dip from last year, as well as a 21% drop from this frame in '07.  Overall, 2009's year-to-date domestic haul stands at a towering $5.718 billion.  That figure marks an 11% improvement over both last year ($5.155 billion) and '07 ($5.173 billion), up 15% compared to '06 ($4.958 billion), and an impressive 22% stronger than '05 ($4.676 billion).  '09 has so far more than 795 million theater admissions, marking the most tickets sold at this point since '04.  This time next week could see '09 pass the $6 billion mark in record time.  The year has already broken the speed records to the $1 billion, $2 billion, $3 billion, $4 billion, and $5 billion plateaus. 

Universal's $42 million comedy "Bruno" topped the box office this weekend as it pulled in more than $30 million.  The movie earned a per-theater average of $11,040 from its 2,756 locations.  While a very solid opening, not all the news was good as the film looks to be very front-loaded.  The comedy got off to a great start on Friday as it pulled in $14.4 million, but fell to $8.8 million on Saturday and $7.2 million on Sunday.  While the film's overall reviews were solid, the exit polling left a lot to be desired as it only earned a C rating average from the various exit polling firms.  This means that the movie probably won't have strong legs in the coming weeks.  Still, for star Sacha Baron Cohen, the opening gives him the strongest launch of his career as the headlining act. 

Fox's 'Ice Age' sequel was off by only 32% as it has now earned close to $121 million.  A final domestic haul in the neighborhood of $185-$200 million is now expected for the animated flick.  DreamWorks/Paramount's 'Transformers' sequel continues to pack theaters as it has now tallied just over $339 million.  The movie looks headed for a final haul in the area of $390-$400 million, which would make it the 15th film of the decade to sell more than 50 million theater admissions (it has so far sold about 47 million tickets).  'Revenge of the Fallen' will tie the 2000s with the 1960s in the #2 slot on the list of decades that fielded the highest number of films that sold at least 50 million tickets.  The 1970s remains #1 as it saw 20 different films sell more than 50 million theater admissions.

Number of 50 million-plus ticket sellers from each decade...
1930s: 2

1940s: 6

1950s: 10

1960s: 15

1970s: 20

1980s: 10

1990s: 13
2000s: 15

Universal's "Public Enemies" also had a solid hold this weekend as it was off a moderate 44%.  The movie has so far earned $66.5 million and looks on course to top out in the neighborhood of $90-$100 million.  Disney's "The Proposal" has earned just under $114 million since opening four weeks ago.  WB's "The Hangover" is now the second biggest R rated comedy hit in history as it has tallied $222.4 million thus far.  The movie won't sell nearly as many tickets as #1 film on that list, "Beverly Hills Cop", but it will end up passing its domestic mark of $234.8 million to become the most successfilm R rated comedy ever.  Fox's "I Love You, Beth Cooper" went largely ignored by moviegoers this weekend as it was only able to manage a $5 million debut, giving it a lukewarm average of $2,691 from its 1,858 theaters.  This one will likely pull a fast fade.  Pixar/Disney's "Up" has now pulled in $273.8 million.  WB's "My Sister's Keeper" has earned close to $36 million after three weeks in theaters.  Sony's "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" passed the $60 million plateau this weekend.  Fox's 'Night at the Museum' sequel was able to cross the $170 million mark this week, while Paramount's "Star Trek" reboot became the 50th film in history to earn more than $250 million domestically.

Next weekend should see business increase considerably as "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" opens on Wednesday.  Fox Searchlight's indie comedy "500 Days of Summer" will open in about 30 theaters next week as well.  The sixth 'Harry Potter' flick is expected to have a five-day haul of no less than $145 million, but don't be surprised if its numbers end up going a bit higher.

From the Hollywood Reporter site...


With "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" monopolizing family filmgoers from Uruguay to China -- easily replicating its No. 1 overseas showing last round -- it was open season for R-rated newcomer "Bruno" over the weekend with audiences in 28 foreign territories seeking raunchier fare.

While third-ranked "Bruno" bagged an estimated $25 million on the weekend, the "Ice Age" digital animation threequel from 20th Century Fox grossed $97.9 million from 12,049 screens in 102 markets, down from the $151.7 million generated from 11,791 screens in 101 territories in its opening launch the prior weekend.

"Dawn of the Dinosaurs' " strictly 3D China debut drew an estimated $4.6 million from 338 sites, elevating the film's overall international total to $327.1 million, $129.9 million shy of the $457 million total tallied by the biggest offshore grosser of the series so far, 2006's "Ice Age: The Meltdown." The threequel finished No. 1 in at least 23 of the markets it played.

The Sacha Baron Cohen comedy about a flamboyantly gay Austrian fashion correspondent in Los Angeles who shocks unsuspecting interviewees opened simultaneously with its No. 1 domestic debut at 2,260 screens overseas, according to "Bruno's" three key foreign distributors: Universal (which is also releasing the film in North America), Sony and Mandate International.

Cohen, a British comedian, made his international mark three years ago with his first mockumentary, "Borat." For a comedy, "Borat" via Fox did especially well abroad drawing a total of $133.1 million versus $129.2 million domestically.

The eight Universal territories (1,435 screens) playing "Bruno" were dominant, particularly the U.K. and Ireland, where the comedy opened No. 1 with $8.1 million from 457 sites, a record bow for an "18-rated" film in the U.K. Australia also did especially well, bagging $6.1 million from 222 screens, representing a 28% market share. The gross was also 58% larger than the comparable "Borat" opening in the market.

Germany contributed $2.9 million from 453 locations while Bruno's "native" country, Austria, produced $450,000 from just 76 sites, for a per-screen average of $8,553. All Universal-handled territories for "Bruno" opened over the weekend; Sony and Mandate Int'l. will release the comedy in 30 foreign markets over the next few months. A France opening via Sony is due July 22.

The 16 mostly smaller markets handled by Mandate, including Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and German-speaking Switzerland, produced $3.75 million from 450 sites or $8,333 per screen. Sony chipped in with 1.3 million from 375 screens Spain, Greece and Portugal.

The early "Bruno" returns are good news for Universal, which has collected $600 million in 2009 foreign boxoffice as of the weekend. That trails Sony's $890 million total as of July 5, and Disney's $630 million as of July 10.

Disney expects to cross the $1 billion overseas boxoffice mark for the 14th consecutive year by late September or October. Fox passed the milestone last week, the first of the big six studios to do so.

With "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" still in high gear, Paramount is expected to shoot past the $1 billion overseas over the weekend. Warner Bros. says it anticipates crossing $1 billion sometime during the run of "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," which saturates the international circuit beginning Wednesday.

The "Transformers" sequel from director Michael Bay opened in India ($1.3 million from 270 sites), claimed the No. 1 spots in Italy and Korea, and generated $32.5 million on the weekend from 9,165 screens in 63 territories, enough for a No. 2 ranking overall. Foreign gross since June 19 stands at $364.5 million, just $24.5 million shy of the original's entire overseas gross.

Finishing fourth was Universal's "Public Enemies," directed by Michael Mann, which drew $8 million from 1,645 locations in 17 markets for a cume of $16.7 million. The Johnny Depp vehicle opened No. 2 in France with $3.8 million garnered from 471 screens. The period crime drama has yet to play 47 overseas territories.

Solid starts in Brazil, South Africa, the Ukraine and Spain propelled Disney's comedy "The Proposal," co-starring Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds, to $7 million from 1,818 sites in 19 markets, for an overseas cume of $40.7 million. Also registering $7 million was Warner Bros.' "The Hangover," which played 1,975 screens in 33 territories for a solid international cume, especially for a comedy, of $74.1 million. Early returns put "The Proposal" and "The Hangover" tied for fifth place on the weekend.

In France, Woody Allen's comedy "Whatever Works," from Mars Distribution, collected $850,000 in its second round at 221 locations, down 50% from its opener. Market cume is $3 million. Pathe's "L'Elegance du Herisson" (The Elegance of the Hedgehog), based on Muriel Barberry's best-selling novel about a plump concierge in a deluxe Parisian residence, drew $1 million from 290 locations.

Other international cumes: Disney's "Up," $52.5 million; Sony's "Year One," $8.7 million; Fox's "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian," $207.8 million; Sony's "Angels & Demons," $345.5 million; Universal's "State of Play," $45.9 million; Sony's "Terminator Salvation," $233.3 million (including non-Sony territories); Disney's "Hannah Montana: The Movie," $64.4 million; Pathe/Fox's "Slumdog Millionaire," $218.7 million; Fox's "X-Men Origins: Wolverine," $184.8 million; and DreamWorks Animation/Paramount's "Monsters vs. Aliens," $175.3 million (thanks to a $1.2 million opening in Japan at 390 sites).

At this point I'd say "Up" is going to top out in the $290 million range and fall short of the triple-century mark.  That would maintain the film's place as Pixar's second biggest domestic earner behind "Finding Nemo" ($339.7 million).

Um...wow.

From Nikki Finke's Deadline Hollywood Daily site...

THEY'RE STILL WILD ABOUT HARRY! 'Potter/Half-Blood Prince' Piles On Record $22.2M In Post-Midnights; Is $200M Five-Day Opening Possible For Sixquel?

First, Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen broke the Wednesday post-midnight record with $16 million in June. Now Warner Bros' 6th film of the Harry Potter shatters that record and more, beating the $18M all-time post-midnight record set by the studio's own The Dark Knight. Meanwhile Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince not only opened with $20 million in 12:01 AM Wednesday shows but also bested by a big margin the $12M in post-midnight dates that its predecessor Harry Potter And The Order of the Phoenix debuted in 2007. That HP5 went on to gross $139.7M over its first 5 days. My box office gurus predict that, this time around, HP6 could haul in as much as $200M from its gigantic release into 4,275 North American theaters for its first 5 days -- despite all those half-price kiddie tickets -- and at least a $100M 3-day weekend.

This weekend has been very good for WB the last two years.  Last year saw TDK become the biggest opening film in history (on its way to becoming the second biggest domestic hit ever) and this year will (probably) see the latest 'Harry Potter' flick become the biggest opener of the franchise.  Next year WB will open Christopher Nolan's next flick, the sci-fi actioner "Inception", on this weekend.  Rumor has it that WB will launch the final 'Harry Potter' flick ('Deathly Hallows Part II') during this frame in 2011, the next HP adventure ('Deathly Hallows Part I') is expected to hit theaters in November of 2010.  With absolutely to-die-for reviews thus far, 'Half-Blood Prince' could go on to become only the second movie of the HP series to top the triple-century mark domestically. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if WB shuffled the release dates, especially considering that shooting has already been completed on 'Deathly Hallows Part I'.  Given how big 'Half-Blood Prince' will open this weekend, I'm sure WB execs are at the very least toying with the idea of swapping the release dates of "Inception" and DH1.  Some at the studio may ultimately feel that "Inception" is more of a "prestige" project and should be released during awards season.  The studio may ultimately opt to keep the movies where they are, but a change could end up happening, especially if 'Half-Blood Prince' goes on to earn more than $300 million domestically.

I had heard that shooting had wrapped late last week on DH1 (filming began in February) and the focus was now solely on DH2.  I could be wrong be though.  From what I understand, the studio wanted to make sure that everything needed for DH1 would be shot first instead of shooting bits from both as they went along (ala what Peter Jackson did with the LOTR trilogy).  Still, for WB to shift the release dates, it greatly depends on what kind of business 'Half-Blood Prince' does this summer.  I'm still of the belief that if the movie makes more than $300 mil domestically that the studio will be very tempted to shuffle the dates.

From the Box Office Guru site...

Wizard fans powered Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince to the fourth biggest opening day of all-time on Wednesday spending a towering $58.4M on the fantasy tentpole, according to early studio estimates, including a record $22.2M from post-midnight shows late Tuesday night. A final tally will be released by Warner Bros. later on Thursday. The latest Hogwarts pic played in 4,275 locations and averaged a spectacular $13,661 per theater.

Only three films have generated more in their first day of release - last summer's The Dark Knight ($67.2M on a Friday), last month's Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($62M on a Wednesday), and 2007's Spider-Man 3 ($59.8M on a Friday). Prince also surged 32% higher than the opening day of the last wizard pic Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix which also debuted on a July Wednesday in 2007.

That film grossed $44.2M in its first day including $12M from post-midnight shows. Breaking down the gross, Prince's post-midnights were a stunning 85% better than Phoenix's while the rest of the Wednesday tally was only 12% higher. Clearly, there was much more intense demand to see the very first shows of this new installment, even if it meant getting home past 3:00am.

Half-Blood Prince is on course to haul in a huge amount over its five-day Wednesday-to-Sunday debut period, although the business should be even more front-loaded than it was for Phoenix. Two years ago, that Potter film saw 32% of its $139.7M five-day bow in the first day. Prince is likely to witness a higher ratio meaning its extended opening should end up in the $160-175M range if the days ahead play out in a similar fashion.