2009 at the Box Office - Page 25

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Brett, WB (New Line) should move FD out of that date in my opinion. As you pointed out, it doesn't look like either film will be moving. I think H2 is going to have very little difficulty winning that weekend. I still think that there is a (small) chance that WB will move FD out of that date. Regardless if it moves or not, H2 wins that weekend.

Chris, not a problem.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Larry, WB really wants Nolan to return for the third movie, especially considering the movie made more than $1 billion worldwide. So much so they gave him a fat deal for his upcoming sci-fi flick "Inception" (rumored to have a budget in the neighborhood of $175-$200 million), hoping this would "grease the wheels" so-to-speak for a deal for another Batman movie (for which he'll likely snag one of the richest directing deals in history). Heath Ledger's death did throw a monkey wrench into things a bit because Nolan was planning on using him in the follow-up. At this point, he doesn't have any desire to recast the role out of respect to Heath's memory and his amazing (Oscar-winning) performance. Nolan, his brother and writing partner Jonathan, as well as David Goyer have been working out story ideas for a third movie, even as he works on "Inception".

If, and I stress if, Nolan and his team can't come up with a suitable story for the next movie, he'll probably opt out as director and be given a producing credit (mirroring Tim Burton's participation in "Batman Forever"). At the end of the day, I think Nolan and co. will end up doing the movie, but we'll probably have to wait until 2012 to see it.

Thanks to the critical and commercial success of TDK, many A-list actors and actresses are very anxious to work with Nolan. Nolan now finds himself on a select list of directors that everyone wants to work with. From what I understand a lot of high caliber talent have expressed interest in appearing in the next Batman flick despite there not being a script. What little is known is that there will be a villain and a "femme fatale" in the next flick. Whether or not this is Catwoman or Talia al Guhl (or someone else) remains to be seen, but the studio wants Catwoman and Riddler (and/or Penguin) to be the Dark Knight's adversaries in film #3.

Regardless of how this turns out, I think it would be a major surprise if Nolan doesn't end up helming the movie. Is there cause for real concern? A bit, but odds are that Nolan will helm at least one more Batman flick.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Proposal" $12.4 million
#2 "The Hangover" $8.5 million ($134.5 million) 18% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Year One" $8.5 million
#4 "Up" $6.1 million ($208.9 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" $3.2 million ($35.2 million) 61% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" $2.2 million ($150.8 million) 28% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Star Trek" $1.3 million ($236.0 million) 19% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Land of the Lost" $1.2 million ($40.9 million) 58% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Imagine That" $990K ($9.2 million) 46% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Terminator Salvation" $840K ($117.3 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "Angels & Demons" $725K ($126.1 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Drag Me to Hell" $667K ($37.9 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop

"The Proposal" is on pace to become the biggest opening mark ever for star Sandra Bullock, as well as the best for co-star Ryan Reynolds in a headlining role. "The Hangover" suffered only a Friday-to-Friday dip of 18%. "Year One" looks headed for an opening just north of $20 million. "Up" also continues to show very strong legs, and "The Taking of Pelhm 1 2 3" took a steep 61% Friday-to-Friday dip to round out the top five. Looks like this weekend will feature that rarest of feats...four of the top five films topping the $20 million mark.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

From what I understand, everyone at WB and with Nolan's camp (currently) feel that it's simply too soon to re-cast the role of Joker and that some time should go by (i.e. a few films down the road) before considering someone else for that role. Luckily, Batman has such a large rogue's gallery that something like that shouldn't be a problem. In terms of major superheroes, only Spider-Man has a rogue's gallery comparable to Batman's.

Plus, Heath was so iconic in the role that not many actors want to follow it so soon after his death. It would be like someone else trying to play Hannibal Lecter following "The Silence of the Lambs".

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Proposal" $34.1 million
#2 "The Hangover" $26.9 million ($152.9 million) -18%
#3 "Up" $21.3 million ($224.1 million) -31%
#4 "Year One" $20.2 million
#5 "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" $11.3 million ($43.3 million) -52%
#6 "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" $7.3 million ($156.0 million) -24%
#7 "Star Trek" $4.7 million ($239.4 million) -14%
#8 "Land of the Lost" $4.0 million ($43.7 million) -56%
#9 "Imagine That" $3.1 million ($11.4 million) -44%
#10 "Terminator Salvation" $3.1 million ($119.5 million) -36%
#11 "Angels & Demons" $2.8 million ($128.1 million) -32%
#12 "Drag Me to Hell" $1.9 million ($39.2 million) -51%

After three consecutive weeks of down numbers compared to last June, this weekend's top 12 finished nearly 2% ahead of last year's frame, thanks in large part to the top four films all earning north of $20 million. Overall, 2009's domestic tally now stands at a towering $4.807 billion. This marks a 10% bump over last year ($4.376 billion), up 12% compared to '07 ($4.299 billion), 16% stronger than '06 ($4.132 billion), and a 20% improvement over '05 ($3.993 billion).

Sandra Bullock earned the biggest opening haul of her career as "The Proposal" got out of the gates with a stellar mark of $34.1 million, which was nearly $10 million stronger than most pre-release predictions. This also marks the first #1 debut the star has enjoyed since 1999's "Forces of Nature", which pulled in $13.5 million during its launch. For co-star Ryan Reynolds, "The Proposal" also gave him the biggest debut of his career as one of the headlining stars. Disney believes their $40 million budgeted movie will eventually top the century mark, giving Bullock the fourth such hit of her career. The romantic/comedy earned an impressive average of $11,163 from its 3,056 locations, which was the best of the top 12.

WB's "The Hangover" continues to show extremely strong legs was it was off by only 18% this weekend, which was the second best hold of the top 12. The movie has so far tallied close to $153 million and is clearly on its way to earning well north of the double-century mark by the time its run concludes.

This weekend saw Pixar/Disney's "Up" become only the 12th film in history to earn more than $20 million in four weekends of business. With $224 million already in the bank, this one looks to have clear sailing all the way to the triple-century plateau.

Sony's critically panned "Year One" debuted with just over $20 million this weekend, earning a per-theater average of $6,684 from its 3.022 locations. Many believe that this one may sink like a stone in coming weeks and may have some difficulty in earning back its reported $60 million budget.

Sony's "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" was off by 52% this weekend and has so far tallied $43.3 million. A final domestic haul in the neighborhood of $70-$80 is now expected. The movie will have to earn stronger numbers overseas to recoup Sony's $100 million production costs.

Fox's 'Night at the Museum' sequel has now earned $156 million. Tomorrow will see Paramount's "Star Trek" officially become the biggest ticket-seller of the franchise. Universal's "Land of the Lost" continues to fade as it has now pulled in close to $44 million. Paramount's "Imagine That" is struggling to find an audience as it has only earned a little over $11 million since its release. WB/Sony's "Terminator Salvation" is now doing steady business as it has now tallied close to $120 million. Sony's "Angels & Demons" is now sitting on a domestic haul of more than $128 million. Universal's "Drag Me to Hell" rounds out the top 12 as it has now earned a little over $39 million.

Next weekend should see business really pick up as DreamWorks/Paramount's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" invades more than 4,000 theaters. Next week also sees the release of WB's drama "My Sister's Keeper". 'Transformers' hits theaters on Wednesday, which probably means the $158 million debut weekend record of "The Dark Knight" is still safe. Still, TF2 is tracking at having a five-day haul of no less than $175 million.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

You're very welcome and thank you for the compliment.

Matt, "Beverly Hills Cop" ($234.8 million) and "Wedding Crashers" ($209.3 million) are currently the only R rated comedies in history to earn more than $200 million. "The Hangover" is about to join a very exclusive club.

As for "Up", it is going to become only the second flick from Pixar to end up topping the triple-century mark, joining "Finding Nemo" ($339.7 million).