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2009 at the Box Office - Page 20

post #571 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malcolm R
The numbers in this thread are decent, but I'd flip them around. I'm thinking (3-day) about $80 million for "Night at the Museum" and about $50 for "Terminator".
Looks like my 3-day estimates might have been rather generous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisR
Warner Bros will be out of business on Monday if that movie 'only' makes $50 million.
Monday's a holiday, so we'll probably have to wait until Tuesday for the bankruptcy filing.
post #572 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryRL
Sadly, you might be right, especially with "talk" from the makers of the film that using Kirk "Prime" (Shatner) and Khan in the sequel are real possibilities. In my opinion, I think Abrams and co. should go in another direction. The Borg as the villains in the next movie has also been discussed.

The reboot flick has gone way above studio expectations and given that Abrams and his team will have up to $200 million to play with next time, you'd have to expect the studio to want to go "safe" in terms of the plot. I do hope this won't be the case though.
As someone who greatly enjoyed the new movie, wouldn't such a direction (Kirk Prime, Khan, the Borg) completely defeat the purpose of setting up an alternate reality? You just wiped the slate clean to do *anything* you want, and to be creative in that endeavor, and you want to retread old ground? STUPID. Tell new stories, damn it!
post #573 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I hope word of mouth sinks Terminator like a stone.

One of the worst films I've ever seen, and I don't care who the director is. This is just a lazy, boring dud.
post #574 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malcolm R
Monday's a holiday, so we'll probably have to wait until Tuesday for the bankruptcy filing.
For what it's worth, I didn't read your post closely enough because I thought you meant the 5 day weekend since that'll probably the only number anyone will really talk about. That being said, I still Terminator will make somewhere in the neighborhood of $55 or maybe $60 million in Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
post #575 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

T4 will do more like $45 million over Friday/Saturday/Sunday.
post #576 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Sun
T4 will do more like $45 million over Friday/Saturday/Sunday.
That's certainly a possibility but I'm guessing that the Saturday and Sunday numbers will rebound compared to Friday.
post #577 of 1466
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The early estimates have the 'Night at the Museum' sequel earning nearly $21 million on Saturday, while 'Terminator' pulled in about $15 million.
post #578 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Conway
Tell new stories, damn it!

B-but that would mean taking a risk! Where are the brand names in new stories? Ye gods, think of the brand names!!!
post #579 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryRL
...while 'Terminator' pulled in about $15 million.
So much for my guess.
post #580 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Sheets
B-but that would mean taking a risk! Where are the brand names in new stories? Ye gods, think of the brand names!!!
Isn't Kirk, Spock and McCoy et al enough?
post #581 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

If estimates hold then another strong weekend for Star Trek with $21M+ for Fri-Sun. As for T4, a weak $43M 3-day estimate.
post #582 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I was well off this time, I predicted $60-$70m 3 day weekend for T4, but than some here were saying it was going to hit $100m or was that Transformers? I can't believe Terminator was beaten into second place by something as trivial as Night at the Museum 2, oh the shame of it all! Who to blame? The friggin' director McJ, McQ whatever his name is, or charisma-free Christian Bale and his ridiculous 10 minute hissy fit, which must have cost him a few fans, or just maybe the film was simply underwhelming?

If Terminator has a big drop in grosses next weekend it might not even pass T3's total, wow.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend...wknd=21&p=.htm
post #583 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

To me, directors (or just plain people) who go by one name such as McG or Tarsem seems like an ego-trip to me. I'd still watch their movies if I feel it has a chance of being good but maybe others will feel different watching the work of someone who feels they deserve to be called by one name.

I don't think Bale's rant prevented many people from watching it. I think the negative word of mouth has more to do with it.
post #584 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Probably, looking at some of the reviews here.

On the plus side the hugely entertaining Star Trek is holding up well at no.3 with Angels & Demons, no.4

Star Trek is now the 2nd most popular film of the year in the US, it should beat Monsters vs Aliens by next weekend methinks. Any other big releases left until Transformers and Harry Potter hit huge? Up?

2009 Yearly Box Office Results
post #585 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Eh. I wouldn't think word of mouth would be that much of an issue opening weekend.
post #586 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray H
Eh. I wouldn't think word of mouth would be that much of an issue opening weekend.


it did open on Thursday...
post #587 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

tarem and mcg might only have one name.. there is also a difference.. tarem can direct better then mcg.

the cell vs anything that mcg has done?
there is a clear winner for that.

hopefully another bomb for mcg and he is out of here as a director..

Jacob
post #588 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

McG is a gun for hire. He delivers whatever the producers/studio wants. For that reason he has a long career ahead of him. Nothing in T4 that is problematic has to do with his service as director, IMO.
post #589 of 1466
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" $53.5 million
#2 "Terminator Salvation" $43.0 million ($56.4 million)
#3 "Star Trek" $22.0 million ($183.6 million) -49%
#4 "Angels & Demons" $21.4 million ($81.5 million) -54%
#5 "Dance Flick" $11.1 million
#6 "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" $7.8 million ($163.1 million) -47%
#7 "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" $3.7 million ($45.9 million) -44%
#8 "Obsessed" $2.0 million ($65.9 million) -56%
#9 "Monsters vs. Aliens" $1.3 million ($193.0 million) -58%
#10 "17 Again" $1.0 million ($60.3 million) -70%
#11 "The Soloist" $823K ($29.2 million) -66%
#12 "Next Day Air" $600K ($8.9 million) -73%

The Memorial Day holiday frame got off to a very good start as the three-day portion of the weekend pulled in just over $168 million, good enough to be the fourth best in history. The four-day estimates will be released tomorrow. The $168.3 million haul came in just ahead of last year's numbers (when Indy IV topped the charts), but was about 15% behind this frame in '07 (when Pirates 3 was launched).

2009's massive year-to-date domestic total now stands at $3.888 billion, representing a 14% bump compared to both last year ($3.398 billion) and '07 ($3.403 billion), up 21% over '06 ($3.203 billion), and 25% stronger than '05 ($3.101 billion). By the end of next weekend, the year-to-date domestic gross will have likely passed the $4 billion mark, adding yet another speed record to 2009's growing list of accomplishments.

Fox's "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" topped the box office this weekend as it gave star Ben Stiller the biggest live-action opening haul of his career. The sequel opened $23 million stronger than its predecessor ($30.4 million) and Fox is expecting a very long and lucrative run for this one despite the critical drubbing it has been taking. The sequel earned a solid average $13,062 from its 4,096 theaters, as well as pocketing nearly $51 million from its overseas debut. While the jury is still out on whether or not the movie will earn the previous film's near $251 million domestic haul.

WB/Sony's "Terminator Salvation" pulled in more than $43 million this weekend ($56.4 million counting Thursday's tally). The haul came in below tracking and many were quick to pounce to say the debut was disappointing and disastrous. T4 opened with a bit less strength than the last film did ($44.0 million), earning a sturdy per-theater average of $12,184 from its 3,530 locations. While T4 will more than likely go on to cross the century mark, the movie will no doubt be the least successful of the franchise. Still, the two studios (WB paid $50 million for the domestic rights, while Sony paid $75 million to handle the overseas theatrical run) are expecting far stronger results from the movie's international run (which begins in a couple of weeks).

Paramount's "Star Trek" continues to pack theaters as it took a moderate 49% dip this weekend. The movie has so far tallied a stellar $183.6 million and will have passed the double-century mark. Paramount execs are confident that the movie has a legit shot at ultimately passing the triple-century plateau.

Sony's "Angels & Demons" lost 54% of its business (which is a lot less than most thought) and has now earned $81.5 million. Worldwide, the sequel has now earned just under $200 million. Paramount's "Dance Flick" got off to a decent start as it opened with more than $11 million. The movie earned a mediocre average of $4,536 from its 2,450 theaters.

Next weekend will see Pixar/Disney's "Up" and Universal's "Drag Me to Hell" hit theaters. Look for "Up" to have an easy time topping the box office charts as May comes to a close.
post #590 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I think box office which has been red hot for most of 2009 will start to cool in the next couple of weeks compared to last year.

For the post-Memorial Day weekend in 2008 Sex & The City opened to $57 million while Indy 4 held at $44 million and The Strangers debuted at a surprisingly strong $20 mill.

I don't think Up, Drag Me To Hell, and the hold over's from this week can keep pace, but we'll see.
post #591 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I definitely think Up can keep pace.
post #592 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Conway
McG is a gun for hire. He delivers whatever the producers/studio wants. For that reason he has a long career ahead of him. Nothing in T4 that is problematic has to do with his service as director, IMO.
I haven't seen the film, but there is no doubt that McG is one of the most technically proficient directors working today. But he lacks vision, which means the quality of his final products depends entirely on the script that he has to work with. He's made some of the best looking terrible movies I've ever seen.
post #593 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I don't think Up will blow away on it's opening weekend, I'm thinking a mid forties opening, but I think it will perform like Finding Nemo week to week until Transformers, not falling out of the top 5 til Harry Potter.
post #594 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Lenhardt
I haven't seen the film, but there is no doubt that McG is one of the most technically proficient directors working today. But he lacks vision, which means the quality of his final products depends entirely on the script that he has to work with. He's made some of the best looking terrible movies I've ever seen.
T4 is VERY well shot. There's a few long shots with tons of action that are on par with Children of Heaven.
post #595 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray H
Eh. I wouldn't think word of mouth would be that much of an issue opening weekend.
As I proposed earlier in this thread, it's just a tired brand that peaked with T2. But for some reason, the studio just won't let it die and now they're going to take a bath financially unless the international grosses are quite sturdy.
post #596 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malcolm R
As I proposed earlier in this thread, it's just a tired brand that peaked with T2. But for some reason, the studio just won't let it die and now they're going to take a bath financially unless the international grosses are quite sturdy.

That said, the Batman and Star Trek brands were in a lot worse shape than Terminator was going into the "reboot".

It should have been able to open along the lines of Wolverine.

The movie isn't great, but it isn't that *terrible* either (relative to the average summer action adventure film).

Unless the international box office is spectacular, the franchise is probably dead. Likely for the best.

Curious that the more The Matrix films become more and more about "the war against the machines" instead of the Matrix itself, audience interest in that franchise also seemed to wane. Maybe the concept itself just doesn't work.

You know what might have been a either a crazy or interesting idea would've been to have gotten Stallone as one of the resistance fighters in the movie.
post #597 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

T4 is bound to do very well internationally. T3 had the same budget ($200 million) and the same opening domestic weekend ($44 million) which was also a holiday weekend (4th of July 2003), and ended up with $150 million US and another $283 million internationally, for a total of $433 million, which was obviously good enough to get this new film. In theory, if T4 comes within $25-50 million of that number overall it will be profitable and the franchise will continue.
post #598 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

True, but you have to wonder how much of T3's international take was boosted with the pent-up demand to see Arnold back in action as the Terminator one more (last?) time.

Does Bale have that kind of drawing power worldwide? Maybe the big explosions and action scenes, which are actually fairly well done, will be enough to draw crowds overseas.
post #599 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete-D
Maybe the big explosions and action scenes, which are actually fairly well done, will be enough to draw crowds overseas.
Frankly, I can't believe that the Terminator name, big explosions and action scenes- good or bad- wasn't enough to draw more of the U.S. audience. I thought the movie was OK at best (not as horrible as some say but not good either) but the crowd that I saw it with seemed to really enjoy it.
post #600 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The crowd I saw it with really enjoyed it as well. There was even clapping at the end, which I thought was rather silly.
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