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2009 at the Box Office - Page 14

post #391 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I thought Dave Poland had an interesting factoid in his box office analysis today:
Quote:
Yes, the issue of legs will be an issue. But so far. Twilight is the only movie in history to have an opening day of more than $31 million to not get to $200 million domestic. (There are 19 such films in total. And btw, Watchmen remains the only film in history to open over $20 million to not get to $110 million.)
post #392 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam_S
I thought Dave Poland had an interesting factoid in his box office analysis today:
Is it just me, or does that quote make no sense? How can it be "the only film in history" in that category if "there are 19 such films in total"?
post #393 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

19 films with an opening day of $31+M, I believe.
post #394 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Right, what he's saying is that 20 films had that size of an opening day. And only 1 didn't make it to $200M
post #395 of 1466
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" $35.0 million
#2 "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" $5.8 million
#3 "Obsessed" $4.2 million ($39.0 million) 63% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "17 Again" $2.0 million ($44.1 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "The Soloist" $1.7 million ($14.2 million) 48% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Fighting" $1.5 million ($14.8 million) 68% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Monsters vs. Aliens" $1.3 million ($177.9 million) 36% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Earth" $1.25 million ($18.9 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "State of Play" $1.1 million ($28.3 million) 47% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Hannah Montana: The Movie" $1.1 million ($67.9 million) 39% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "Fast & Furious" $850K ($147.9 million) 56% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Battle for Terra" $250K
post #396 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

what is the tracking for t4?

Jacob
post #397 of 1466
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The early tracking indicates that T4 and the 'Night at the Museum' are both going to have monster showings over the Memorial Day holiday frame. WB is expecting T4 to open with more than $50 million.
post #398 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

$87m opening weekend for Wolverine, wow! Doesn't look like that internet leak wounded the beast much, plus people seem to have ignored the less than stellar reviews, the summer movie blitz has started.


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend...wknd=18&p=.htm
post #399 of 1466
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" $87.0 million
#2 "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" $15.3 million
#3 "Obsessed" $12.2 million ($47.0 million) -57%
#4 "17 Again" $6.4 million ($48.5 million) -45%
#5 "Monsters vs. Aliens" $5.8 million ($182.4 million) -32%
#6 "The Soloist" $5.6 million ($18.1 million) -42%
#7 "Earth" $4.18 million ($21.8 million) -53%
#8 "Fighting" $4.17 million ($17.5 million) -62%
#9 "Hannah Montana: The Movie" $4.08 million ($70.9 million) -37%
#10 "State of Play" $3.7 million ($30.9 million) -47%
#11 "Fast & Furious" $2.7 million ($149.8 million) -56%
#12 "Battle for Terra" $1.1 million

The summer season got off to a rousing start as the top 12 pulled in $152.2 million, marking the third best opening summer weekend haul in history. The $152.2 million tally trails only the $181.3 million gross from 2007 (thanks to the massive debut of "Spider-Man 3") and the $152.4 million haul from 2002 (thanks to the first Spidey flick's then-record opening).

After a record-shattering run in April, where the month earned close to $695 million (the best in the history for the month), May got off to exactly the kind of start the studios were hoping for as 2009 continues to pull in staggering numbers. The year-to-date gross now stands at a whopping $3.283 billion, representing a 15% bump over last year ($2.844 billion), up 18% compared to '07 ($2.790 billion), 21% stronger than '06 ($2.726 billion), and an impressive 26% improvement over '05 ($2.599 billion).

Despite leaking to the internet some weeks ago, Fox's "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" was able to pocket the eleventh best May opening weekend haul in history as it tallied $87 million. The film earned a stellar per-theater average of $21,225 from its ultra-wide 4,099 locations, which represents the largest release in Fox's history. While the movie has been blasted by critics, moviegoers still came out in force to check it out.

Legs may be an issue in the coming weeks, but the $150 million budgeted flick showed more than enough muscle this weekend to launch Fox's 'X-Men Origins' franchise. Work should begin soon on "X-Men Origins: Magneto", as well as a sequel to 'Wolverine'. Even if the movie has short legs, it will still likely have a very successful run globally at the box office.

New Line/WB's "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" got off to a decent start as it pulled in just over $15 million this weekend. The rom-com earned a per-theater average of $4,827 from its 3,175 locations. Expect this one to have a pretty solid run in the coming weeks.

Sony's "Obsessed" took a 57% hit and has so far tallied $47 million. Look for the flick, which cost only $20 million to make, to top out in the neighborhood of $60-$70 million, making this one a very profitable hit for Sony. WB's "17 Again" has now earned $48.5 million. DreamWorks/Paramount's "Monsters vs. Aliens" is now sitting on a fantastic domestic haul of $182.4 million. DreamWorks/Paramount's "The Soloist" has pocketed just over $18 million.

Disney's "Earth" in nearing the $22 million mark. Rogue Pictures' "Fighting" took a steep 62% hit and has now taken in $17.5 million. Disney's "Hannah Montana: The Movie" passed the $70 million mark this weekend. Universal's "State of Play" has tallied just under $31 million thus far. Universal's "Fast & Furious" is now a couple of days away from passing the $150 million plateau.

Lionsgate's "Battle for Terra" rounds out the top 12 as it crashed and burned with moviegoers this weekend. The movie earned only $1.1 million, translating to a pitiful average of $916 from its 1,162 theaters. This one will try to recoup its losses on home video.

Next weekend will see Paramount's highly anticipated "Star Trek" hit theaters, along with Summit's "Next Day Air". The franchise reboot of 'Trek' is currently predicted to open north of the $70 million plateau next weekend, which would easily mark the best opening ever for the franchise. Reviews have been stellar and Paramount execs believe that this one will be one of the summer's best performers. We'll see what happens.
post #400 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Lionsgate's "Battle for Terra" rounds out the top 12 as it crashed and burned with moviegoers this weekend.

One of the worst films I've ever suffered through.
post #401 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Almost exactly a year ago Iron Man opened with $98.6m in 3 days and finished it's US run with $318m. But I can't see Wolverine doing that kind of business, what with the much anticipated Star Trek opening next week. Iron Man was numero uno the following weekend too after Speed Racer spectacularly stalled at the starting line.

Wolverine's already grossed $160m worldwide and I will be seeing it some time this week.

Quote:
Chris Aronson, senior vice president of domestic distribution at "Wolverine" backer Twentieth Century Fox, said the studio was guiding industry watchers lower for reasons that included the movie being the fourth in the "X-Men" series.

"I'd been telling people that at anything over $70 million, we were going to be very happy," he said.

Moreover, Aronson said "Wolverine" enjoyed the second biggest domestic opening for an "X-Men" movie behind "X-Men: The Last Stand," which posted a $102 million debut in May 2006 and eventually earned $459 million globally.

The four movies in the "X-Men" series have combined for more than $1.1 billion in ticket sales around the world.

The Fox executive said ticket sales of $73 million in 101 markets outside the United States and Canada brought the global haul to $160 million. He called that figure "fantastic," and noted it topped the movie's production cost of around $130 million.

"Wolverine" slashes rivals in $160 million global bow
post #402 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Christou
But I can't see Wolverine doing that kind of business, what with the much anticipated Star Trek opening next week.
Plus, Wolverine is basically X-Men 4 and there aren't many part 4's that make Iron Man-kind of money.
post #403 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

No but strangely enough the 4th movie in a series usually make more money than the 3rd.

For instance... Star Trek, Star Wars, James Bond, Indiana Jones, Elm Street, Rocky, Fast and Furious etc

There are exceptions like - Rambo, Planet of the Apes, Batman, Jaws...
post #404 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I guess I'll jump in and say I'm shocked at how well they're saying S.T. is tracking. I work in an office where "movie talk" is quite high but I haven't heard very many talking about this film outside the die-hard fans.

And JAWS: THE REVENGE (4th) is much better than JAWS 3 but often the case, the good films makes less money than the bad ones.
post #405 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Yeah, this is, what, "Star Trek 12"? ST has never reached much beyond its hardcore fans. The only thing fresh here is that it's a cast no one has seen before.

I'm taking a wait and see approach (meaning the second weekend drop) as to whether this will really be the huge blockbuster everyone's predicting.
post #406 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I actually had a 20-30 something couple in front of me in line at the theater while I was getting Wolverine tickets and they thought Star Trek was already out. When they realized it wasn't they left, lol.

I think Paramount's marketing campaign for this is really driving interest. They are marketing a ton during things like the NBA playoffs, which usually is not where Star Trek movies are marketed. They are marketing it like any other summer sci-fi/action blockbuster. I have seen more TV spots for Star Trek already than I ever did for Wolverine and we still have a few days to go.

Plus I think Wolverine is going to fade fast, that will bode well for Trek.
post #407 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I do think Star Trek will do well, though maybe not quite as high as predicted. Terry mentioned a $70M prediction - I'll go a little lower with $50M. Wolverine will suffer at least a 60% drop though, mostly due to word of mouth (which I somewhat disagree with, not that the movie was great). Angels & Demons should open the following week in #1 I would expect, but Star Trek could be poised for a relatively small drop in week 2.
post #408 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I'm going to predict $70 mill.

I think people are anxious for the "big movies" to start rolling out, and Wolverine didn't hit the spot for a lot of people. I think, in conjunction with good reviews, could help Trek get some people who maybe would not see a Trek film otherwise. The glossy, sexy, guitar driven TV spots and trailers are running at a fever pitch too.

Paramount I think has gotten the breaks they wanted and have a good opportunity to strike now.

If you have a big CGI summer film and it actually is a good movie on top of the effects -- this is the summer you want to open it in.
post #409 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I agree with Pete. I'm willing to bet it beats $75M. It is going to be a big summer for $.
post #410 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I'm going with $82 million on the strength of the Burger Klingon commercials.
post #411 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Elliott
And JAWS: THE REVENGE (4th) is much better than JAWS 3 but often the case, the good films makes less money than the bad ones.

Wait a minute - did you actually just refer to "Jaws the Revenge" as a "good movie"???
post #412 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Colin, I was going for sarcasm but I do find the film to be one of the greatest bad movies ever made. I can watch it for entertainment just like I can PLAN 9 and REEFER MADNESS.
post #413 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Seems like a bad time to release another 3D animated film while "Monsters Vs. Aliens" is still playing in most of the venues needed.
post #414 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I will predict $112 million.
post #415 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

ST might get whatever it gets opening weekend but just like wolverine everyone that wanted to watch it will have seen it and it'll have no legs >P

on the other hand UP! might not start so well like ratatouille but build on word of mouth.
post #416 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I will predict (since everyone's predictions keep getting higher) that this will be the first 1 billion dollar opening weekend.
post #417 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I'll go with $65m opening weekend for Star Trek, $25m friday.
post #418 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I'm willing to wager it makes more than Battle for Terra in it's opening weekend.
post #419 of 1466

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Hey come on even Speed Racer opened bigger than Battle for Terra.. [cue hissing from Speed Racer fans]

The last Trek film Nemesis had an $18.5m opening weekend 7 years ago.

First Contact had the biggest Trek opening to date with $30.7m

And Star Trek IV Search for the Humpback Whales is still currently the only Star Trek movie to gross over $100m in the US. All Trek records will shatter by the end of next week, who knows maybe by sunday.


Quote:
Star Trek Movies
Rank Title (click to view) Studio Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Date
1 Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home Par. $109,713,132 1,956 $16,881,888 1,349 11/26/86
2 Star Trek: First Contact Par. $92,027,888 2,812 $30,716,131 2,812 11/22/96
3 Star Trek: The Motion Picture Par. $82,258,456 1,002 $11,926,421 857 12/7/79
4 Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan Par. $78,912,963 1,621 $14,347,221 1,621 6/4/82
5 Star Trek III: The Search for Spock Par. $76,471,046 1,966 $16,673,295 1,966 6/1/84
6 Star Trek: Generations Par. $75,671,125 2,681 $23,116,394 2,659 11/18/94
7 Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country Par. $74,888,996 2,147 $18,162,837 1,804 12/6/91
8 Star Trek: Insurrection Par. $70,187,658 2,677 $22,052,836 2,620 12/11/98
9 Star Trek V: The Final Frontier Par. $52,210,049 2,202 $17,375,648 2,202 6/9/89
10 Star Trek: Nemesis Par. $43,254,409 2,711 $18,513,305 2,711 12/13/02
post #420 of 1466
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