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2009 at the Box Office - Page 13

post #361 of 1466
4/19/09 at 4:56pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Except of course in extreme cases where millions of people have already seen a version of the film before it was officially released, than it'll have to be a stonkingly good film indeed to beat the odds and make its mark at the box office.

Btw Friday the 13th (2009 remake) did 62.4% of it's total take in it's first 3 days, wow!
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post #362 of 1466
4/19/09 at 5:36pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Christou
Btw X-Men 3 did almost half it's total US gross in it's opening weekend.

Actially, "X-Men 3" did MORE than half of its US total during opening weekend. It took in a little more than 52% during its first weekend...
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post #363 of 1466
4/19/09 at 6:45pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin Jacobson
Actially, "X-Men 3" did MORE than half of its US total during opening weekend. It took in a little more than 52% during its first weekend...
When did $102 million become 52% of $234 million?
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post #364 of 1466
4/19/09 at 7:32pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malcolm R
When did $102 million become 52% of $234 million?
I'm guessing he is taking the 4 day holiday gross of $123 million (memorial day weekend). That gives you 52%.
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post #365 of 1466
4/19/09 at 11:05pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
I'm still scratching my head as to why anyone thought this film was necessary or wanted? The first film wasn't that popular and only grossed about $26 million.
i'm guessing it was cheap to make, did well overseas and did very well on home video.
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post #366 of 1466
4/25/09 at 12:17pm
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "Obsessed" $11.1 million
#2 "Fighting" $4.5 million
#3 "17 Again" $3.9 million ($32.2 million) 59% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "The Soloist" $3.2 million
#5 "Earth" $2.9 million ($8.5 million)
#6 "State of Play" $2.08 million ($20.3 million) 55% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Monsters vs. Aliens" $2.05 million ($168.3 million) 42% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Fast & Furious" $1.9 million ($141.1 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Hannah Montana: The Movie" $1.8 million ($61.0 million) 56% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Crank: High Voltage" $850K ($10.0 million) 69% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "I Love You, Man" $620K ($66.5 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Knowing" $560K ($75.4 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop

"Obsessed" got out of the gates with a much stronger than expected $11.1 million opening day haul. Many thought that the movie would be lucky to earn a debut weekend mark of $15 million, but now looks headed for an opening in the area of $25-$30 million.

"Fighting" is off to a good start as it should have an opening weekend mark in the neighborhood of $12 million. "The Soloist" should pull in about $8-$10 million. "Earth" should also earn that amount and about $15 million for its five-day tally.
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post #367 of 1466
4/25/09 at 1:35pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

That's a pretty surprising take for Obsessed. I can't say I have much interest in seeing it, but this is good news for Idris Elba fans.
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post #368 of 1466
4/25/09 at 2:30pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Not like I know what's on the mind of America but I'm not surprised that Obsessed is making that much money. I have absolutely no interest in it (though I imagine that it might play pretty well as an unintentional comedy) but it certainly seems like a movie that would draw a crowd.
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post #369 of 1466
4/25/09 at 3:18pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The calm before the storm. Wolverine next friday, followed by Star Trek the week after, than Angels & Demons on the 15th, Terminator IV on the 21st and Up on the 29th. And that's just May...
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post #370 of 1466
4/25/09 at 5:59pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I wish Up were coming out next week.
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post #371 of 1466
4/26/09 at 12:42am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I'm thinking May 09 could set some records for sure. The Night At The Museum sequel opens in May too IIRC (not my thing, but probably will do well with families).

I'm more bullish on Star Trek now. The marketing campaign is a lot more aggressive than I thought and whether you agree with it or not, they are really blitzing the younger male demographic with TV spots straight out of a Mountain Dew commercial. They are advertising during things like the NBA playoffs too which you wouldn't neccessarily expect from a Star Trek movie but it's pretty clear Paramount is marketing this without reservations.

The trailers are terrific as well.

If Terminator Salvation is actually a decent movie (thus generating solid word of mouth) -- look out, because that will probably take the month of May over the top and carry over into June as well.
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post #372 of 1466
4/26/09 at 1:47am
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The crown of biggest May at the box office currently belongs to 2003, which holds records for both biggest total box office haul ($955.8 million) and highest number of admissions the month has ever enjoyed (158.5 million). That month was headlined by 'X2', "The Matrix Reloaded", "Bruce Almighty", "Daddy Day Care", "The Italian Job", and "Finding Nemo".

The industry has yet to see the month of May earn more than $1 billion domestically. There is hope that May '09 will not only be the biggest ever, but also the first to cross the billion-dollar plateau. For that to happen, the month will need to sell in the area of 135-140 million admissions.
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post #373 of 1466
4/26/09 at 3:16am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Terry, how is Trek tracking?
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post #374 of 1466
4/26/09 at 10:50am
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Currently, "Star Trek" is tracking extremely well, which is why Paramount has already greenlit a sequel. Based on the early numbers, Paramount execs are very confident that not only will this movie be the biggest hit of the ST franchise, but also among the most successful movies of the summer. The studio is expecting an opening weekend mark north of $60 million.
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post #375 of 1466
4/26/09 at 12:18pm
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Obsessed" $28.5 million
#2 "17 Again" $11.7 million ($40.0 million) 51%
#3 "Fighting" $11.4 million
#4 "The Soloist" $9.7 million
#5 "Earth" $8.6 million ($14.2 million)
#6 "Monsters vs. Aliens" $8.5 million ($174.8 million) -36%
#7 "State of Play" $6.9 million ($25.1 million) -51%
#8 "Hannah Montana: The Movie" $6.4 million ($65.6 million) -53%
#9 "Fast & Furious" $6.1 million ($145.2 million) -49%
#10 "Crank: High Voltage" $2.4 million ($11.5 million) -66%
#11 "I Love You, Man" $1.936 million ($67.8 million) -42%
#12 "Knowing" $1.935 million ($76.8 million) -46%

For the first time in history, all four weekends of the month April saw the top 12 films top the $100 million mark. This weekend moviegoers pumped $104 million more into the box office, which continues to be on a record-shattering pace. Business was up 32% compared to last year, and a whopping 70% compared to this frame in '07. April '09 has seen four of its releases join the list of the top 11 openings in the history of the month. With four days to go, April has tallied an impressive $663 million, which is only $20 million off of the record $683.6 haul of April '06.

2009's year-to-date box office now stands at a towering $3.093 billion, marking the fastest time in history to the triple-billion-dollar plateau. This marks a 16% improvement over last year ($2.673 billion), 15% stronger than '07 ($2.691 billion), up 19% over '06 ($2.598 billion), and 25% better than '05 ($2.484 billion).

Sony's "Obsessed" got out of the gates with much stronger than anticipated haul of $28.5 million, coming in well over $10 million of the studio's most optimist predictions. The movie earned a stellar per-theater average of $11,337 from its 2,514 locations. At a cost of only $20 million, the movie was instantly profitable for the studio and gave star Beyonce a big shot in the arm towards her film career. The studio is expecting a very healthy run for this one during the coming weeks.

WB's "17 Again" took a 51% hit this weekend and has so far tallied $40 million. A final haul in the area of $65-$70 million is now expected. Rogue's "Fighting" got off to a strong start as it tallied $11.4 million, earning a solid average of $4,955 from its 2,309 theaters. This one may not have the strongest of legs in the coming weeks, but should still earn respectable numbers.

DreamWorks/Paramount's "The Soloist" earned decent numbers this weekend as it pulled in close to $10 million, giving it a per-theater of $4,800 from its 2,024 locations. The studio is hoping that this one develops strong legs. Disney's "Earth" had a five-day haul of more than $14 million as it earned an average of $4,742 for the weekend from its 1,804 theaters.

DreamWorks/Paramount's "Monsters vs. Aliens" is now sitting on a domestic mark of nearly $175 million. Universal's "State of Play" is fading fast as it has only been able to manage $25 million thus far. For star Russell Crowe, this makes it back-to-back box office disappointments for him. Disney's "Hannah Montana: The Movie" has made more than $65 million. Universal's "Fast & Furious" is currently sitting on a domestic haul of $145.2 million.

Lionsgate's "Crank: High Voltage" is a bona fide flop as it lost 66% of its business from last weekend. DreamWorks/Paramount's "I Love You, Man" is closing in on $68 million. Summit's "Knowing" rounds out the top 12 and has now tallied close to $77 million.

Well, it's here, the biggest moviegoing season of the year. Next weekend will see summer '09 begin as Fox launches "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" in more than 4,000 locations. Next weekend will also see New Line/WB's "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" and Lionsgate's "Battle for Terra" enter theaters.

Despite tepid reviews and the whole workprint controversy, 'Wolverine' is expected to open north of $80 million next weekend to get the summer off to a great start. Also, don't be surprised if 'Ghosts' has a very solid showing next weekend.
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post #376 of 1466
4/26/09 at 12:36pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

It's too bad that "State of Play" is not performing well. We saw it yesterday and really enjoyed it. It doesn't break new ground, but it a solid thriller with good acting. While I wasn't surprised that it didn't open big, I am surprised at its drop off. It is a movie that trends older and has solid reviews so I thought it might have some staying power.
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post #377 of 1466
4/26/09 at 3:23pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidJ
It's too bad that "State of Play" is not performing well. We saw it yesterday and really enjoyed it. It doesn't break new ground, but it a solid thriller with good acting. While I wasn't surprised that it didn't open big, I am surprised at its drop off. It is a movie that trends older and has solid reviews so I thought it might have some staying power.
While remakes are bad enough for action franchises, they're even worse for more "serious" fare... especially when the remake comes only six years after the original.
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post #378 of 1466
4/26/09 at 7:31pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Lenhardt
While remakes are bad enough for action franchises, they're even worse for more "serious" fare... especially when the remake comes only six years after the original.

Are we talking about the BBC miniseries that is is based on? I haven't seen it yet, but do plan on checking it out. I've heard good things. I just have a hard time with the idea that a BBC miniseries had a significant impact on its box office performance.
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post #379 of 1466
4/26/09 at 9:37pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

State of Play is doing OK.

I don't think the general audience right now is in the mood for films that are too serious though with the recession going on. I think people want lighter fare and "guilty pleasure" types of films (see: Obsessed).

Angels & Demons is probably about as far as the movie going public is willing to go with drama this summer I think.
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post #380 of 1466
4/27/09 at 7:38am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

If I missed this I'm sorry but what's the deal with using the top 12 movies? Is that a recent development? I assume at some point some BO milestones were within reach by using 12 rather than 10?

Edit to add: Any word on Up tracking? This is the least excited I've been about a Pixar. :-(
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post #381 of 1466
4/28/09 at 3:28am
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The industry (for the most part) has been using the the top 12 method since the early 80s. The top 12 often produce gaudier numbers than a top 10.

So far, "Up" isn't tracking as well as "Monsters vs. Aliens", but its still early and the Disney marketing machine has yet to really kick in for the movie (i.e. television promos running in heavy rotation). Say what you will about the film itself, but DreamWorks and Paramount did a great job in promoting MvA.

I'm expecting the tracking for "Up" to increase significantly over the course of the next few weeks.
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post #382 of 1466
4/28/09 at 3:54am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
The top 12 often produce gaudier numbers than a top 10
But 13 is bad luck? Too many syllables?
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post #383 of 1466
4/29/09 at 8:00am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

pixar hasn't failed me yet, but i do worry about the marketing for Up! i remember back in ratatouille days. 200mil? that's a "joke" compared to other pixar films!!! that should have done better theatrically!

i hope they do a better job of marketing Up! than ratouille.

what's wolverine tracking this weekend?
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post #384 of 1466
4/29/09 at 9:52am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by JediFonger
what's wolverine tracking this weekend?
Terry said above that expectations are for an $80 mil first weekend, minimum.
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post #385 of 1466
4/29/09 at 9:51pm

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I prefer Pixar's more "off-beat" stuff (loved Ratatouille and even Cars).

Up! looks great to me.

If it's a good movie, the word of mouth will be there and seeing how box office is trending so high up this year, I think films with good word of mouth will benefit a lot.

There's no shame in "only" making $200 million domestic either, lol.
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post #386 of 1466
4/30/09 at 9:13am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

there's no shame in 200mil except that many other pixars like finding nemo can do 300+
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post #387 of 1466
4/30/09 at 9:27am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Pretty sure Nemo is the only Pixar that sniffed 300.
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post #388 of 1466
4/30/09 at 10:02am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrettB
Pretty sure Nemo is the only Pixar that sniffed 300.
Yep, Finding Nemo is the only Pixar film that has broken the $300 million barrier in the US.

It is also their largest worldwide success, followed by The Incredibles, Ratatouille, and WALL-E.

The Pixar domestic "average" gross is about $237 million.

And it's a hell of a track record that their lowest domestic gross is about $162 million (A Bug's Life, although worldwide the original Toy Story is their lowest gross).

Disney-Pixar - Box Office History
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post #389 of 1466
5/2/09 at 11:34am

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Terry, any word on how Star Trek is tracking? I gotta think it's tracking very well at this point.

Paramount has got to be ecstatic about this film. They took a relative risk in moving it to May to compete with the other summer films, and now they have a dream scenario: the reviews are excellent, the advertising has succeeded in attracting the mainstream while not abandoning the already established fanbase, the release for the previous weekend (Wolverine) is getting a mixed response, and the release for the following weekend (Angels & Demons) is, from what I can tell, being met with cautious optimism after the last film was seen as dull by many film goers.

And best of all: unlike Iron Man and Indiana Jones, Paramount is actually gonna get that box office revenue beyond the distribution fee!
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post #390 of 1466
5/2/09 at 12:10pm
Thread Starter 

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Paramount execs are extremely excited about next weekend's opening. Some are already calling "Star Trek" this summer's "Iron Man" in how they think it could ultimately perform. The movie is currently tracking at having an opening in the neighborhood of $60-$70 million, easily becoming the biggest opening flick of the franchise. If these numbers are correct, the ST reboot will become the biggest hit of the 30 year-old film series (which began with 1979's lackluster "Star Trek: The Motion Picture") during only its second weekend in theaters.

There are some who are predicting that the movie will open even stronger than this weekend's 'Wolverine' flick (which earned a monstrous $35 million yesterday). 'Wolverine' looks headed for a debut mark in the area of $85 million, right in line with its tracking. I don't know if ST will open bigger, but given the film's stellar reviews and the overall excitement for it, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it did.
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