2009 at the Box Office - Page 2

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "Marley & Me" $9.8 million ($92.2 million) 30% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "Bedtime Stories" $8.6 million ($73.7 million) 15% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $7.1 million ($67.7 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Yes Man" $5.6 million ($71.0 million) 6% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Valkyrie" $5.5 million ($52.2 million) 33% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Seven Pounds" $3.9 million ($53.9 million) 18% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "The Tale of Despereaux" $2.8 million ($39.6 million) 12% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "The Day the Earth Stood Still" $1.9 million ($71.3 million) 32% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Doubt" $1.82 million ($15.5 million) 1% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Twilight" $1.80 million ($174.1 million) 12% Friday-to-Friday increase
#11 "Slumdog Millionaire" $1.7 million ($25.7 million) 13% Friday-to-Friday increase
#12 "Bolt" $1.3 million ($107.9 million) 20% Friday-to-Friday increase

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Marley & Me" $24.1 million ($106.5 million) -34%
#2 "Bedtime Stories" $20.3 million ($85.4 million) -26%
#3 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $18.4 million ($79.0 million) -32%
#4 "Valkyrie" $14.0 million ($60.7 million) -33%
#5 "Yes Man" $13.9 million ($79.4 million) -17%
#6 "Seven Pounds" $10.0 million ($60.0 million) -24%
#7 "The Tale of Despereaux" $7.0 million ($43.7 million) -21%
#8 "Doubt" $5.0 million ($18.7 million) -6%
#9 "The Day the Earth Stood Still" $4.9 million ($74.3 million) -37%
#10 "Slumdog Millionaire" $4.8 million ($28.8 million) +11%
#11 "Twilight" $4.5 million ($176.8 million) -5%
#12 "Bolt" $3.3 million ($109.9 million) -3%

While the studios opted not to release anything new this week, they did still enjoy the biggest first weekend haul ever for the month of January as business was up about 9% compared to last year, as well as an impressive 28% increase over this frame from '07. This is exactly how the industry wanted the year to start off. Overall, the three day gross of $130.1 million ranks as the second best January weekend in history, trailing the the third weekend mark of $132.4 million from last year (when "Cloverfield" opened).

The year-to-date haul is already at $210.5 million, representing a whopping 45% increase over last year ($145.0 million), up a monstrous 90% over '07 ($110.7 million), an impressive 68% bump over '06 ($125.1 million), and a 63% improvement over '05 ($129.3 million). This bodes well for the rest of the month.

Fox's hit "Marley & Me" once again led the field as it saw a modest decline of 34% this weekend. The film has so far tallied $106.5 million and could end up flirting with a final domestic haul in the neighborhood of $200 million, giving Fox their biggest hit since 2007's "Alvin & the Chipmunks" ($217.3 million). The movie will also give stars Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson their biggest and second-biggest domestic hits respectively as the headlining performers.

After a slower-than-expected start, Disney's "Bedtime Stories" has found its legs (dropping only 26% this weekend) and is headed for a final tally well north of the century mark. The movie has so far netted more than $85 million thus far. This will give star Adam Sandler his third consecutive $100 million-plus performer (the fourth out of his last five movies), as well as the tenth overall for his career.

This will put Sandler in some pretty exclusive company as he will become 11th A-lister to have at least ten $100 million-plus domestic earners. That list currently includes Tom Hanks (15), Tom Cruise (15), Harrison Ford (13), Eddie Murphy (13), Will Smith (12), Jim Carrey (11), Robin Williams (11), Mel Gibson (10), Sam Jackson (10), and Julia Roberts (10).

Paramount/WB's Oscar-hopeful, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", also had a solid hold this weekend as it lost modest 32% of its business from last week. The movie has so far tallied just over $79 million and will end up earning well north of the $100 million plateau, giving star Brad Pitt the eighth such hit of his career. Many are now speculating that the movie will end up pulling in between $180-$200 million because of its massive Oscar buzz.

UA's "Valkyrie" was off by 33% and is now sitting on a domestic haul of $60.7 million. If this one has legs, it could give star Tom Cruise the 16th $100 million-plus hit of his career (which would be the most for one star). Regardless if it reaches that mark or not, the $75 million budgeted film, along with last summer's "Tropic Thunder", has seemingly regained Cruise's box office mojo. "Valkyrie" also gives upstart UA the hit the studio so desperately needed.

WB's "Yes Man" continues to do solid business (dropping only 17%) and looks on course to give star Jim Carrey the 12th $100 million-plus earning hit of his career. Sony's "Seven Pounds" is also showing very solid legs after a slow start (taking only a 24% dip) and has so far tallied just over $60 million. The movie is showing very sturdy legs and could give megastar Will Star his ninth consecutive $100 million hit (13th overall). Even if the film falls short of that amount, it will still add another hit (15th) to Smith's growing resume (of 19 films). There's a reason why this guy is one of the industry's highest paid stars.

Universal's "The Tale of Despereaux" has now earned close to $44 million and looks headed for a final tally in the area of $60 million. Miramax's Oscar-hopeful, "Doubt", lost only 6% of its business this weekend and has earned close to $20 million. Fox's "The Day the Earth Stood Still" is sitting on a domestic haul of $74.3 million. Fox Searchlight's Oscar-favorite "Slumdog Millionaire" continues to fill movie theaters as it saw an 11% increase in business this week. The film has so far earned just under $30 million.

Summit Entertainment's "Twilight" has now tallied close to $177 million, while Disney's "Bolt" is currently sitting on a domestic mark of just under $110 million, giving John Travolta the ninth $100 million-plus hit of his career.

My thoughts and prayers go out to Mr. Travolta, his wife, and the rest of their family.

Next weekend will see the first crop of '09 releases as Fox's "Bride Wars", Universal's "The Unborn", and Sony's "Not Easily Broken" all hit theaters. Next week will also see Oscar-hopefuls "Gran Torino" (from WB) and "The Reader" (Weinstein Co.) go into wide release. The studios are hoping that the momentum will carry through to next weekend as "Bride Wars" and "The Unborn" attempt to wrest away the top spot from "Marley & Me".

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The studios are hoping that this weekend is a sign of things to come and that both theater admissions and box office revenue will be up from last year's numbers. As things stand now, "Inkheart" and the 'Underworld' prequel are the movies many believe will be the top two earners for the month.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

chemist, WB is expecting TDK to at most earn another $10 million during its reissue. The studio isn't expecting gigantic numbers, but the suits would be ecstatic if the movie had enough juice to get to the $550 million (or more) plateau.

By the way, "Gran Torino" (which goes wide this weekend) is tracking stronger than all three of next weekend's new releases. There could be a bit of a surprise at #1 this weekend. Should be very interesting.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Friday-to-Friday drops

"Marley & Me" 66%
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" 59%
"Bedtime Stories" 73%
"Valkyrie" 61%
"Yes Man" 63%
"Seven Pounds" 68%
"Slumdog Millionaire" 36%
"Twilight" 47%

"Gran Torino" (great movie) and the three new releases dominated business on Friday leading to the significant drops of most of the other holdovers. Still, expect all of them to find their footing during Saturday and Sunday. This weekend is on course to end up being one of the biggest ever for the month of January. For the first time ever, January will produce back-to-back top 12 finishes of more than $130 million. As stated last weekend, this is exactly the kind of start to '09 the studios were hoping for.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Right now the only "sure thing" nod "Gran Torino" is expected to receive is in the Best Original Song category. The Best Actor race is so rich this year that Mr. Eastwood may not end up among the five nominees. As it stands now Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"), Sean Penn ("Milk"), and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") are considered locks to get nominated, while Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road"), Benicio del Toro ("Che"), Clint Eastwood ("Gran Torino"), Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor"), and Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") all battle over the final two slots.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

"The Wrestler" isn't going to be playing in anything near a wide release until after the Oscar nominations are announced. Currently, the movie has done very well in limited play and Fox Searchlight is hoping this trend continues as it continues to slowly expand. If so, the stronger the possibility will be for the movie to go into wider release down the line.

From Brett B
I found this information on the official site (Fox Searchlight - The Wrestler - Official Site)

PLEASE NOTE: This is plan is subject to change.

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Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Gran Torino" $29.0 million ($40.1 million) +888%
#2 "Bride Wars" $21.5 million
#3 "The Unborn" $21.1 million
#4 "Marley & Me" $11.4 million ($123.7 million) -53%
#5 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $9.5 million ($94.3 million) -49%
#6 "Bedtime Stories" $8.6 million ($97.2 million) -58%
#7 "Valkyrie" $6.7 million ($71.5 million) -53%
#8 "Yes Man" $6.2 million ($89.4 million) -56%
#9 "Not Easily Broken" $5.6 million
#10 "Seven Pounds" $3.9 million ($66.8 million) -61%
#11 "Slumdog Millionaire" $3.7 million ($34.1 million) -21%
#12 "Twilight" $2.8 million ($181.4 million) -40%

For the first time in history, the month of January enjoyed back-to-back top 12 earnings of more than $120 million. This weekend's haul of nearly $130 million ($129.8 million) ranks as the third best ever for the month, following what was the second best mark last week. This weekend's gross represents a stellar 25% improvement over last year, as well as a massive 36% bump over '07.

This year's year-to-date gross already stands at a whopping $401.2 million, representing a 26% bump over last year ($318.2 million), a stellar 44% improvement over '07 ($278.8 million), up 36% compared to '06 ($295.7 million), and a 41% increase over '05 ($284.6 million). To say studio execs are happy right now is a mild understatement.

WB's "Gran Torino" went into wide release this weekend and gave director/star (as well as four-time Oscar winner) Clint Eastwood the biggest opening mark of his career. The drama's impressive average of $10,337 from its 2,808 theaters was clearly the best of the top 12. This time last year also saw a film starring a pair of aging Oscar-winners top the charts and go on to do extremely well in theaters. That film was "The Bucket List" (starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman), which opened at nearly $20 million and legged its way to a final domestic haul of $93.5 million.

Eastwood has hinted that 'Torino' will be his last film as an actor and that he will primarily focus his energies on directing (his next film will star Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon) and if this is his last time in front of the camera, he's definitely going out in style as the movie is expected to leg its way to more than $100 million. While competition for the Best Actor Oscar is going to be stiff, don't be surprised if Eastwood manages to get himself a nomination.

Fox continues its current hot streak (after a mostly dismal '08) as "Bride Wars" got off to a very good start by pulling in $21.5 million. The comedy's per-theater average of $6,665 from its 3,226 locations was the fourth best of the top 12. For stars Kate Hudson and Anne Hathaway, the debut gives the two actresses their fourth and fifth biggest openings respectively. While the film was slaughtered by most major critics, the movie did well with the female demo and is expected to have a long and healthy run in theaters.

Universal's horror flick "The Unborn" also got off to a great start as it debuted with $21.1 million. The film opened stronger than most thought it would as it earned a very strong average of $8,950 from its 2,357 locales, was the second best of the weekend. While, the movie isn't expected to have the strongest legs, the studio will probably see a very nice profit on this one.

Fox's "Marley & Me" has so far tallied $123.7 million. Paramount/WB's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" is currently sitting on a domestic haul of $94.3 million. Disney's "Bedtime Stories" has now pulled in $97.2 million. Both 'Button' and 'Bedtime' will have topped the century mark by next weekend. UA's "Valkyrie" has so far netted $71.5 million, while WB's "Yes Man" has banked 89.4 million.

Sony's "Not Easily Broken" got off to a fantastic start by earning $5.6 million from only 724 theaters, giving the movie an average of $7,735, which was the third best of the top 12. Also look for this one to have a sturdy run in theaters.

Sony's "Seven Pounds" has now earned close to $67 million. Fox Searchlight's Oscar-hopeful "Slumdog Millionaire" has pulled in $34.1 million. Summit Entertainment's "Twilight" is now sitting on a domestic mark of $181.4 million.

Next weekend's four-day holiday frame (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) will see Sony's "Paul Blart: Mall Cop", DreamWorks/Paramount's "Hotel for Dogs", Lionsgate's "My Bloody Valentine 3D", and Fox Searchlight's "Notorious" all hit theaters. Both Paramount Vantage's "Defiance" and Overture Films "Last Chance Harvey" will expand to wide release.

The studios are expecting a very solid frame of business, although they're not expecting numbers such as those from last year when "Cloverfield" blew away January box office records. Still, expect a very strong session as the new releases and holdovers maintain the month's strong performance.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Best Picture Oscar hopefuls at the box office...

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $94.3 million
"The Dark Knight" $531.0 million
"Doubt" $22.9 million
"Frost/Nixon" $7.7 million
"Milk" $19.1 million
"The Reader" $5.5 million
"Revolutionary Road" $3.2 million
"Slumdog Millionaire" $34.1 million
"Wall-E" $223.8 million
"The Wrestler" $2.8 million

If the PGA nods are any indication, then 'Benjamin Button', TDK, "Frost/Nixon", "Milk", and "Slumdog Millionaire" will be the five finalists for the Oscar. Of those five, 'Slumdog' is considered the front-runner by most critics groups.