2009 at the Box Office - Page 46

Given that the average ticket price for "Avatar" is around $10 bucks (because of increased 3D pricing) the film probably won't sell as many tickets as TF2 (a little over 56 million), but at this point I'd be surprised if the movie didn't at least bank more than $350 million domestically.  If "Avatar" were to match TF2's ticket sales, that would put it in the neighborhood of $535-$550 million domestically.

Friday Estimates

#1 "Sherlock Holmes" $24.9 million *biggest Christmas Day haul in history*
#2 "Avatar" $23.5 million ($160.8 million) 12% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel" $14.5 million ($41.4 million)
#4 "It's Complicated" $7.1 million
#5 "Up in the Air" $3.6 million ($16.2 million) 281% Friday-to-Friday increase
#6 "The Blind Side" $3.4 million ($176.0 million) 6% Friday-to-Friday increase
#7 "Nine" $2.0 million ($2.4 million) 2,208% Friday-to-Friday increase
#8 "The Princess and the Frog" $2.0 million ($56.8 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" $1.5 million ($12.2 million) 34% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Invictus" $1.3 million ($20.3 million) 2% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $660K ($278.6 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "A Christmas Carol" $485K ($135.1 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop
Edited by TerryRL - 12/26/09 at 2:15pm

"The Princess and the Frog" is falling off a lot quicker than the studio anticipated.  As far as I know, the movie is only just beginning its run overseas.  While the movie has earned strong reviews, it hasn't pulled in the type of business that the studio hoped for.  Sadly, with the movie not performing up to expectations, it could be yet another nail in the coffin of big screen 2D animated movies.

I also hope it does better overseas.  The art form will (hopefully) never truly die, but may end up relegated to the straight-to-video format instead of big screen releases.  Hollywood is a place where you're rewarded for "playing it safe" (generally speaking of course).  If 2D films simply aren't making the money that CG animated ones are, than studios will shy away from greenlighting one with a significant budget.  If 'Princess and the Frog' had been a huge smash, than every studio would've put a major 2D animated project into pre-production. 

If those numbers hold than "Avatar" will have earned the biggest second-weekend gross in history, inching past the $75 million haul "The Dark Knight" pulled off last year.  A final domestic mark north of the $400 million plateau is probably a lock at this point.

You're very welcome and happy new year to you.

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Avatar" $75.0 million ($212.3 million) -3%
#2 "Sherlock Holmes" $65.4 million
#3 "Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel" $50.2 million ($77.1 million)
#4 "It's Complicated" $22.1 million
#5 "Up in the Air" $11.8 million ($24.5 million) +266%
#6 "The Blind Side" $11.7 million ($184.4 million) +17%
#7 "The Princess and the Frog" $8.7 million ($63.4 million) -29%
#8 "Nine" $5.5 million ($5.9 million)
#9 "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" $5.0 million ($15.6 million) -24%
#10 "Invictus" $4.4 million ($23.4 million) +4%
#11 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $3.0 million ($280.9 million) -32%
#12 "A Christmas Carol" $1.4 million ($136.0 million) -61%

It was a very Merry Christmas for Hollywood as this holiday frame earned the biggest box office numbers ever for a single weekend of business.  The top 12 films earned a staggering $264.2 million, easily distancing the $253.6 million record achieved in July of last year when "The Dark Knight" got off to its record-breaking start.  This weekend also marks the first time in history that three films topped $50 million, it is also the second time that the top two movies earned more than $60 million apiece.  This hasn't happened since Memorial Day weekend '04 when "Shrek 2" ($72.2 million) and "The Day After Tomorrow" ($68.7 million) topped the box office.  This weekend also saw another rarity with the top four films all pulling in more than $20 million.

The $264.2 million was a phenomenal 53% better than last year, as well as an even more impressive 64% stronger than this frame in '07.  2009 also becomes the first year to post two top 12 finishes of more than $250 million, the other being the $250 million performance the weekend 'New Moon' opened. 

2009's incredible year-to-date domestic gross now stands at $10.358 billion, marking 10% improvements over both last year ($9.455 billion) and '07 ($9.437 billion), up 15% compared to '06 ($8.999 billion), and 20% stronger than '05 ($8.652 billion). 

Fox's "Avatar" repeated as the nation's top box office draw as lost only 3% of its business from last week to earn the second biggest sophomore-weekend haul in history.  The film's $75 million haul came in just behind the $75.2 million second-weekend tally of "The Dark Knight".  "Avatar" has so far earned $212 million domestically and is nearing the $500 million mark in global earnings.  Fox is now speculating that the film will eventually top the $400 million plateau in domestic earnings, as well as end up passing the $1 billion mark worldwide.  Love him or hate him, writer/director James Cameron has proved yet again that he's "king of world".

WB's "Sherlock Holmes" earned the second biggest non-#1 opening in history, behind the $68.7 million launch of "The Day After Tomorrow".  The movie opened well above industry and studio expectations, as well as earning raves from moviegoers thus far. The studio firmly believes that they have what will become a hit franchise on their hands.  'Holmes' earned a per-theater average of $18,031 from its 3,626 locations, which was the second best of the top 12.

Fox's 'Alvin & the Chipmunks' sequel pulled in a stellar $77.1 million since Wednesday, $50.2 million for the weekend which was the seventh best December opening in history.  The film took in an average of $13,568 from its 3,700 theaters, the third best of the top 12.  Look for Fox to greenlight a third 'Chipmunks' flick very soon.

Universal's "It's Complicated" got off to a great start as it debuted with $22 million, giving it a very solid average of $7,660 from its 2,887 locales.  Two-time Oscar winner Meryl Streep has turned into a major box office star during the last few years (not too shabby for a 60-year-old) and 'It's Complicated" looks as if it be her a third big box office hit out of her last five movies.  The studio is confident that "It's Complicated" could become just as big a hit (maybe bigger) than Streep's summer hit "Julie & Julia" ($94.1 million), which may nab the actress yet another Best Actress Oscar nod.

With no new films opening next weekend "Avatar" will look to become the first 2009 release to top the box office for three weeks, marking the first time since late summer last year when "Tropic Thunder" was the top film in the land for three weeks in-a-row.  "Avatar" could end up being the first movie since "The Dark Knight" to sit atop the weekend box office for four straight weeks.

The official numbers have been released and "Avatar" earned a record-breaking $75.6 million this weekend, coming in just ahead of the $75.2 million pulled in last year by "The Dark Knight" to give "Avatar" the biggest second-weekend gross in history.  At this point it will be a shock if the movie doesn't end up crossing the $400 million mark domestically.

That $19.4 million figure represents the second biggest non-holiday Monday gross in history, trailing only the $24.5 million first-Monday haul of "The Dark Knight".  The film also earned the biggest second-Monday tally ever, besting the previous record of $12.0 million held by Peter Jackson's "King Kong" remake.  "The Dark Knight" pulled in $10.5 million during its second Monday in theaters.

Next weekend "Avatar" will attempt to become the first film in history to earn more than $50 million in three weekends of business.