2009 at the Box Office - Page 45

Friday Estimates

#1 "Avatar" $27.0 million
#2 "The Princess and the Frog" $3.4 million ($35.9 million) 51% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "The Blind Side" $3.2 million ($157.9 million) 33% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" $2.4 million
#5 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $1.4 million ($271.6 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Invictus" $1.3 million ($13.0 million) 54% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "A Christmas Carol" $951K ($128.3 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Up in the Air" $925K ($5.9 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday increase
#9 "Brothers" $888K ($20.3 million) 47% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Old Dogs" $709K ($42.0 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Avatar" $73.0 million
#2 "The Princess and the Frog" $12.2 million ($44.8 million) -50%
#3 "The Blind Side" $10.0 million ($164.7 million) -33%
#4 "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" $7.0 million
#5 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $4.4 million ($274.6 million) -45%
#6 "Invictus" $4.2 million ($15.8 million) -52%
#7 "A Christmas Carol" $3.4 million ($130.8 million) -50%
#8 "Up in the Air" $3.1 million ($8.1 million) +30%
#9 "Brothers" $2.6 million ($22.1 million) -48%
#10 "Old Dogs" $2.3 million ($43.6 million) -48%
#11 "2012" $2.2 million ($159.0 million) -51%
#12 "Armored" $1.2 million ($14.2 million) -65%

Moviegoers shelled out nearly $126 million on the top 12 films this weekend, marking a 58% improvement over this frame last year, but was off 17% from this weekend in '07 (when "I Am Legend" got off to its record start).  2009's incredible year-to-date domestic mark now stands at $9.948 billion and is just days away from becoming Hollywood's first $10 billion year at the box office.  This year's tally represents a 9% increase over last year ($9.159 billion), up 10% compared to '07 ($9.075 billion), 15% stronger than '06 ($8.689 billion), and a 19% improvement over '05 ($8.381 billion).  2009 has now sold an estimated 1.385 billion theater admissions.

Fox's "Avatar" easily topped the box office this weekend as it earned the second best December opening in history, trailing only the $77.2 million debut of WB's "I Am Legend" two years ago.  The sci-fi epic also earned the ninth biggest global debut in history as it pulled in a total of $232.2 million.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST WORLDWIDE OPENING HAULS
#1 "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" (WB) $394.0 million
#2 "Spider-Man 3" (Sony) $381.7 million
#3 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Disney) $344.0 million
#4 "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (WB) $332.7 million
#5 "Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith" (Lucasfilm/Fox) $303.9 million
#6 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" (Summit Entertainment) $274.9 million
#7 "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (Lucasfilm/Paramount) $272.2 million
#8 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (New Line) $250.0 million
#9 "Avatar" (Fox) $236.2 million
#10 "The Da Vinci Code" (Sony) $232.1 million

The $73 million debut marks the biggest ever for director James Cameron.  "Avatar" marks the Oscar-winner's first mainstream directorial effort since helming "Titanic".  The opening mark also gives the film the biggest debut ever for a 3D movie, passing last summer's $68.1 million launch of Pixar/Disney's "Up".  With a very encouraging exit poll grade of A- Fox is expecting this one to have a very leggy run and have little difficulty in recouping the film's rumored $400 million-plus (including marketing costs) price tag.  The film would have to earn no less than $800 million worldwide to break even based on those numbers.  "Avatar" earned a stellar per-theater average of $21,147 from its 3,452 locations.  That average ranks as the third best for a wide release this year coming in behind 'New Moon' ($35,497) and 'Revenge of the Fallen' ($25,736).  Overall, the $73 million opening ranks as the sixth best of '09.

Sony's "Did You Hear About the Morgan's?" barely drew interest from moviegoers as it opened with $7 million, giving it a very soft average of $2,575 from its 2,718 theaters.  The studio is hoping the movie will stabilize over the holiday frame next week.

Next week will mark the final weekend of '09 as Fox's "Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squekquel", WB's "Sherlock Holmes", and Universal's "It's Complicated" hit theaters on Christmas Day (Friday).  "Sherlock Holmes" has been tracking through the roof and it'll be interesting to see if it challenges "Avatar" for the top spot next weekend.
Edited by TerryRL - 12/21/09 at 1:15pm

Thank yo so much for the compliment.  I really appreciate it. 

As for Cameron's overall domestic ticket sales...

1984 "The Terminator" 11.4 million admissions ($38.4 million in '84/ $81.9 million today)
1986 "Aliens" 23.0 million admissions ($85.2 million in '86/ $165.4 million today)
1989 "The Abyss" 13.7 million admissions ($54.5 million in '89/ $98.4 million today)
1991 "Terminator 2: Judgment Day" 48.7 million admissions ($204.8 million in '91/ $349.4 million today)
1994 "True Lies" 35.1 million admissions ($146.3 million in '94/ $252.0 million today)
1997 "Titanic" 128.3 million admissions ($600.8 million in'97/ $921.5 million today)
2009 "Avatar" 8.2 million admissions (and counting...)

Now counting "Avatar", Cameron's films have sold 260 million tickets domestically, selling an average of 43.35 theater admissions (roughly $311 million domestically) per film.  "Titanic" does greatly inflate his numbers, but overall, there is a reason why studios trust Cameron with budget-busting projects.
Edited by TerryRL - 12/21/09 at 10:47am

In all fairness, Cameron was fired from that film and had very little to do with the final product, which is why I didn't include it.  Plus, the film's domestic figures are next to impossible to find.  It did sell about 900,000 tickets overseas though.

You're welcome Chuck.

Weekend Actuals

#1 "Avatar" $77.0 million
#2 "The Princess and the Frog" $12.2 million ($44.7 million) -50%
#3 "The Blind Side" $10.0 million ($164.7 million) -33%
#4 "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" $6.6 million
#5 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $4.4 million ($274.6 million) -45%
#6 "Invictus" $4.2 million ($15.9 million) -51%
#7 "A Christmas Carol" $3.4 million ($130.8 million) -50%
#8 "Up in the Air" $3.1 million ($8.1 million) +30%
#9 "Brothers" $2.9 million ($22.5 million) -42%
#10 "Old Dogs" $2.3 million ($43.6 million) -47%
#11 "2012" $2.2 million ($159.0 million) -49%
#12 "Armored" $1.3 million ($14.3 million) -63%

"Avatar" saw a $4 million increase once the final figures came in, but still fell short of the $77.2 million record debut of 2007's "I Am Legend".  Still, with stronger than expected business on both Saturday (a 5% fall from Friday's numbers) and Sunday (a 4% dip off of Saturday's mark) Fox is greatly encouraged that their $400 million epic will have sturdy legs in the coming weeks, ultimately culminating in a final domestic haul north of the triple-century plateau.  The studio firmly believes that the movie will end up topping $800 million globally.

The $16.4 million haul marks the third best non-holiday Monday gross in history, trailing only "The Dark Knight" ($24.5 million) and Pirates 2 ($18.1 million).  Overall, "Avatar" earned the eleventh biggest Monday tally in history, as well as marking the highest gross ever for the day during the month of December.  The previous record had been held by "Meet the Fockers", which pulled in $13.9 million five years ago during its first Monday.

Congratulations all around to Hollywood as yesterday saw domestic box office sales top the $10 billion mark for the first time in history.  Overall ticket sales are estimated to be more than 1.4 billion and industry insiders expect that mark to be in the 1.45-1.50 billion range by the end of the year, marking the highest ticket sales for a single year since 2004.

Overseas box office grosses stood at more than $15 billion through last Sunday. 

Yesterday saw "Avatar" earn the second best non-opening day Tuesday mark with its $16.1 million tally, trailing only the $20.9 million mark of "The Dark Knight".  Overall, the $16.1 million haul ranks as the third best Tuesday gross in history, #1 being the $27.9 million opening day tally of the first "Transformers" movie.  After five days in theaters "Avatar" has so far pulled in $109.5 million.

Not only will this very likely end up being the biggest Christmas weekend in history, this could also mark the first time in history that two films earned north of $70 million during the same weekend.  It would be only the second time that two films posted tallies of more than $60 million during the same frame.  The first time being back in '04 when "Shrek 2" posted a second-weekend haul of $72.2 million, while "The Day After Tomorrow" opened with $68.7 million.

"Sherlock Holmes" will give director Guy Ritchie the biggest opening of his career, as well as the second best debut tally for WB this year, trailing the $77.8 million start of "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" last summer.  'Holmes' will also give WB their third $50 million-plus launch of the year.  The $55.2 million haul of "Watchmen" was their third such opening of '09.

For "Avatar", this weekend's $70 million-plus sophomore weekend gross will vault the film past the double-century mark domestically.  If the numbers hold, "Avatar" will become only the fourth film in history to post more than $70 million during its second weekend in theaters.  It would join "The Dark Knight" ($75.2 million), "Shrek 2" ($72.2 million), and "Spider-Man" ($71.4 million) on that very short list.  All three of these films went on to earn more than $400 million domestically, with "The Dark Knight" pulling in more than $500 mil.

Jim Cameron's 3D epic has thus far displayed fantastic legs and Fox now expects a final haul well north of the triple-century plateau.  The real question is whether or not the movie will have enough juice to challenge Transformers 2 ($402.1 million) for this year's domestic box office crown.  It is beginning to look more and more like "Avatar" will end up being 2009's biggest domestic hit.

I'm not too worried about SH having decent legs.  The exit polling has been fantastic thus far (garnering an A grade) and with such a potent debut, the movie will (likely) have little difficulty pulling in at least $150 million domestically, easily giving director Guy Ritchie the biggest hit of his career, on top of being the third $100 million-plus performer for star Robert Downey Jr. out of his last four films.  This summer's "Iron Man 2" will make it four of five.

With a production budget said to be in the area of $80 million, the film will end up being a very profitable hit for the WB.  The studio execs were already talking sequel when they saw the film's test screening scores.  With Downey inked to appear as Tony Stark in a third IM fflick, but also the upcoming 'Avengers' movies, a SH sequel probably won't hit theaters until either 2011 or 2012.  Brad Pitt has long been rumored to be playing the villain in the next SH movie, Professor Moriarty.  In SH lore, Moriarty is essentially the Joker to Holmes' Batman.