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2009 at the Box Office - Page 44

post #1291 of 1466
12/11/09 at 1:45pm
looking at the avatar reviews, I'm really glad I bought my imax tickets yesterday morning. :-p
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post #1292 of 1466
12/11/09 at 2:24pm
"The Lovely Bones" is getting mixed to negative reviews across the Internet right now. This is really disappointing to me as this was one of the films I was really looking forward to this year. I think it's only in limited release this December and dose not go wide until next year.
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post #1293 of 1466
12/11/09 at 2:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Hunter View Post

"The Lovely Bones" is getting mixed to negative reviews across the Internet right now. This is really disappointing to me as this was one of the films I was really looking forward to this year. I think it's only in limited release this December and dose not go wide until next year.

It sounds like Jackson turned a simple story in to a CGI fest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JediFonger

ok seriously... +P what is the estimated $ for this weekend?

Consensus of weekend predictions for "Princess and the Frog" seems to be running in the middle 20's.
Edited by Malcolm R - 12/11/09 at 3:09pm
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post #1294 of 1466
12/11/09 at 4:46pm
Yeah, I'm a bit bummed about The Lovely Bones.  The reviews have mentioned it is unbalanced, and favors lot of CGI landscapes.  Which does not represent the book very well.  Too bad.  I'll still see it, though.  PJ's earned a shot every time out.
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post #1295 of 1466
12/11/09 at 5:57pm
Any early tracking on Avatar? I wonder if it will get a nice boost from the slew of positive feedback, and being in expensive D3D and Imax screens doesn't hurt.

I'll wager an $85m weekend.
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post #1296 of 1466
12/11/09 at 7:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Mayer View Post

Yeah, I'm a bit bummed about The Lovely Bones.  The reviews have mentioned it is unbalanced, and favors lot of CGI landscapes.  Which does not represent the book very well.  Too bad.  I'll still see it, though.  PJ's earned a shot every time out.


I'm disappointed too.  Looks like he PG-13'd it.  Changed a lot of what's in the book too.  I was really looking forwarded to this one and now won't probably open where I live until Jan 15th I think.

But I got to see "The Princess and the Frog" and "Invictus" today.
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post #1297 of 1466
12/12/09 at 6:21am
     Quote:
Originally Posted by LynxFX View Post

Any early tracking on Avatar? I wonder if it will get a nice boost from the slew of positive feedback...
The amusing thing about this is that Titanic followed a nearly identical critical trajectory in 1997.  Initial skepticism, then eventual dormancy (as the film was made), then disbelief, then bad buzz, then derision, and then the film premiered in Japan.  The discussion changed at that point to something far different...it started being about the movie instead of the production.  And it got rave reviews.  Nice to hear that Cameron still has it.
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post #1298 of 1466
12/12/09 at 8:07am
I was also looking more forward to THE LOVELY BONES than any other picture coming out this season. But the lukewarm reviews seem to have labeled the film a misfire.

On the other hand, I'm very happy with the reviews AVATAR is receiving. I didn't have high hopes for that one, but I'm starting to get excited.
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post #1299 of 1466
12/12/09 at 11:44am
"The Blind Side" just keeps holding in there.. Disney will capture #1, but Blind Side will have another $15M this weekend.  For the budget, that film is turning into an incredibly good buy for the studio.
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post #1300 of 1466
12/13/09 at 12:54pm
So what was the opening result for "The Princess and The Frog"? Considering the lack of discussion and lack of a review thread, it musn't have been good.
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post #1301 of 1466
12/13/09 at 1:00pm
Thread Starter 
Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Princess and the Frog" $25.0 million ($27.9 million) +3,244%
#2 "The Blind Side" $15.5 million ($150.2 million) -23%
#3 "Invictus" $9.1 million
#4 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $8.0 million ($267.4 million) -48%
#5 "A Christmas Carol" $6.9 million ($124.5 million) -12%
#6 "Brothers" $5.0 million ($17.4 million) -48%
#7 "2012" $4.4 million ($155.3 million) -35%
#8 "Old Dogs" $4.4 million ($40.0 million) -36%
#9 "Armored" $3.5 million ($11.7 million) -46%
#10 "Ninja Assassin" $2.7 million ($34.3 million) -47%
#11 "Up in the Air" $2.5 million ($4.0 million) +107%
#12 "Planet 51" $2.3 million ($37.2 million) -48%

This weekend was the "calm before the storm" as moviegoers spent just over $89 million on the top 12 films at the box office, representing a 7% bump over last year, but down 43% compared to this frame in '07.  2009's massive year-to-date domestic tally now stands at $9.710 billion, marking a 7% increase over last year ($9.042 billion), up 10% compared to '07 ($8.858 billion), 14% stronger than '06 ($8.512 billion), and a 19% improvement over '05 ($8.186 billion).  '09 is now less than $300 million away from becoming the first year to earn over $10 billion domestically at the box office with an estimated 1.352 billion theater admissions being sold thus far.  This year marks the strongest ticket sales the industry has enjoyed since '04.

Disney's "The Princess and the Frog" went wide this weekend and pulled in $25 million, giving it a solid average of $7,280 from its 3,434 theaters.  Disney is expecting this one to have very strong legs in the coming weeks and end up becoming the studio's fifth $100 million-plus domestic earner for the year.

WB's "The Blind Side" continues to show extremely strong legs as it was off by only 23% this weekend.  The movie passed the $150 million plateau and looks headed for a final haul north of the double-century mark.  WB also took the third slot with the latest flick from four-time Oscar winner Clint Eastwood, "Invictus".  The movie pulled in more than $9 million, giving it a strong per-theater average of $4,560 from its 2,125 locations.  WB is expecting this one to have very strong legs during the remainder of awards season.  With Oscar buzz surrounding not only the film itself, but the performances of fellow Oscar winners Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon, as well as a possible fifth Best Director nod for Eastwood, "Invictus" should end up being a solid hit for the studio.

A pair of Oscar hopefuls debuted this weekend.  Weinstein's "A Single Man" launched with $216K, giving it a stellar $24,000 per-theater average from its nine theaters.  DreamWorks/Paramount's "The Lovely Bones", the latest from Oscar winner Peter Jackson, opened in three theaters and walked with $116K, earning a stellar average of $38,667.

Next weekend expect business to really pick up as James Cameron's highly anticipated sci-fi opus "Avatar" hits theaters.  Sony's "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" also goes wide.  "Avatar" is expected to open well north of the $60 million mark, while 'The Morgans' should enjoy a solid debut in the area of $15-$25 million.
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post #1302 of 1466
12/13/09 at 1:12pm
Thanks. Quick response. You must have been in the last stage of finishing your report when I posted. So TPaTF came in pretty close to the predictions. Guess it gets to enjoy the #1 spot for one weekend as "Avatar" will certainly bump it out next week. 
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post #1303 of 1466
12/13/09 at 2:30pm
Thread Starter 
"Avatar" has so far received fantastic reviews and Fox is extremely confident that they're going to end up seeing a return on their extremely expensive epic.  Some box office watchers are predicting that the movie will perform more along the lines of Peter Jackson's "King Kong".  That film was expected to earn more than $1 billion worldwide and dominate December '05, but ended up being trumped by the first 'Narnia' flick both domestically ($291.7 mil vs. $218.1 mil) and worldwide ($745.0 million vs. $550.5 million).  'Kong' also enjoyed a $200 million-plus budget, as well as boasting "groundbreaking" FX. 

What is interesting is that the December release that has the strongest tracking right now is "Sherlock Holmes".  I do think "Avatar" will be a monstrous hit (I'm guessing a bigger one than 'Kong') and become one of the biggest releases of '09.  Next weekend will definitely make for some interesting theater.
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post #1304 of 1466
12/15/09 at 1:10pm
re: trajectory of avatar vs. Titanic. no way avatar is going to do Titanic biz. there just ain't enough nerd/geek to go around luving scifi films like avatar to the tune of 1+ billion =p. titanic is looked on as more of a historic thing, followed by momentum of repeated women viewing.

what used to be the 'bastard child' of cinema is fantasy films, but LOTR really blew those things way out of the water... though LOTR is more of a literary type event, than it is fantasy.

now it is scifi that is left to win adulations... but i dont think avatar will be it (award wise). sci-fi has always been avoided by female demographics (right terry), predominately male =P.

so w/50% of the population rooting for it, that's already bad enough. & out of that, only a smaller portion will actually go out of their house to catch it. i see only the sci fi fans coming out to support it. the rest i dunno =P
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post #1305 of 1466
12/15/09 at 1:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by JediFonger View Post

no way avatar is going to do Titanic biz.
 


But there's almost no way that any movie will do Titanic business ever again.
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post #1306 of 1466
12/15/09 at 1:58pm
Ummm ...don't cut out 50% of potential audience just yet. 

I question whether sci-f- has no female audience - maybe not as large as the male contingent, but it's very much there. Pundits used to say the same thing about LOTR before it was released and why it wouldn't be successful. In fact, both book and films had a large female following. (It never hurts to have a bunch of good lookin' guys in the main rolses either.)

Star Trek did pretty well with female audiences. There is actually a geeky-female demographic out there, gals who like Trek, SW, Dr Who etc. I'm not a James Cameron fan but - hell - even I plan to see Avatar.

A big part of potential appeal is how much of an action content a particular sf movie appears to have ahead of release. All action and explosions will excite the guys more than the gals. But Avatar has a female protagonist, a whiff of inter species romance, so it at least has a fighting chance. Also...word of mouth could be very important. If the date goes with him to the film and likes Avatar, she'll tell every friend on Facebook.

I'd agree younger females in the general audience aren't the target market for Avatar...not like for The Blind Side or Twilight. But plenty of women are very interested in the movie. I'm sure the "over 50" demographic isn't a target for the movie either. But this over 50 female will see Avatar this week.
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post #1307 of 1466
12/15/09 at 6:30pm
It'll happen eventually, but as a result of inflation. The Dark Knight was only $66m away.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisR View Post



But there's almost no way that any movie will do Titanic business ever again.
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post #1308 of 1466
12/15/09 at 7:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by LynxFX View Post

It'll happen eventually, but as a result of inflation. The Dark Knight was only $66m away.
 


 


On second thought, you're probably right but I think the differences in the movie going public and the 'biz' today (people know they can own a DVD or Blu-ray 4 months after a movie is released in theaters, people steal movies online, $10 or more movie tickets probably have pushed some people away from theaters) probably means that it will be a very, very long time until it happens.
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post #1309 of 1466
12/15/09 at 8:20pm
I fully thought that as well that it would be a long time before Titanic's record (domestic) would fall. Then The Dark Knight came. $66m away is just a solid weekend away in today's market. I'm guessing it will be from a film we never see coming. Who thought that the sequel to a modest reboot or essentially the 6th batman would get that close?  I'd guess that it will happen in the next 5 years. That is 17 years from Titanic's haul, guess that could be considered a long time. :)
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post #1310 of 1466
12/16/09 at 12:13pm
well I guess Star Wars was on top for about five years, ET was on top for fifteen years, Star Wars was back on top for about three months, and then Titanic has been on top for 12 years, I figure Titanic probably has another 2-5 years before the record falls.
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post #1311 of 1466
12/16/09 at 12:20pm
 ^^And each record is more irrelevant than the last.

I know Titanic didn't go on to sell 20 million DVD's after its release.
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post #1312 of 1466
12/16/09 at 12:29pm
And THE BIRTH OF A NATION has been on top since 1915 and no movie will ever come close to it.  No STAR WARS.  No AVATAR and no TITANIC. 
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post #1313 of 1466
12/16/09 at 12:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by LynxFX View Post

I fully thought that as well that it would be a long time before Titanic's record (domestic) would fall. Then The Dark Knight came. $66m away is just a solid weekend away in today's market.
 

That $66M will be about 6 good weekends though, at that point in a run.  The front-loaded element isn't what needs the boost.  It's the longevity portion.  It's the last few months.

Something will clearly make more than $600M at some point.  But I think it needs a bit more inflation before that becomes possible.
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post #1314 of 1466
12/16/09 at 6:52pm
Titanic also holds a record not affected by inflation: 15 consecutive weeks at #1

To break that nowadays, you'd almost need the other studios to collude and schedule new movies that really suck for three months.
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post #1315 of 1466
12/17/09 at 6:28am

They don't need to collude to put out three months of bad movies.

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post #1316 of 1466
12/18/09 at 11:01am
Thread Starter 
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/first-word-avatar-midnights-only-3-million-even-with-higher-3d-ticket-prices-hollywood-now-predicting-85m-weekend/
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post #1317 of 1466
12/18/09 at 11:07am
does that mean it's $85mil just for IMAX 3-D screening w/o any 2-D or regular 3-D counted? article was confusing =p
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post #1318 of 1466
12/18/09 at 11:18am
No, it means the film has an expectation of $85M total (all formats) for the weekend now.
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post #1319 of 1466
12/18/09 at 11:18am
No, the $85 million prediction is the entire gross for the weekend from all formats.
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post #1320 of 1466
12/18/09 at 5:11pm
Based on my viewings, midnight and opening day might not be what they want, but they are going to make their money.  Both audiences were thrilled with the film.  It won't make $500M, but I don't think it will have trouble zipping by $300M domestically and nearly twice that internationally.
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