2009 at the Box Office - Page 43

A 65% fall was the steepest the studio thought the movie would drop.  Summit felt that they had a good shot at losing "only" 55-60%.  'New Moon' now owns the highest percentage fall of any film that opened with more than $100 million.

$100 million-plus openers second-weekend percentage falls...

#1 "The Dark Knight" -52%
#2 "Spider-Man 3" -62%

#3 “The Twilight Saga: New Moon” -70%
#4 "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" -54%
#5 "Shrek the Third" -56%
#6 "Spider-Man" -38%
#7 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" -62%
#8 "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" -61%
#9 "Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith" -49%
#10 "Shrek 2" -33%
#11 "X-Men: The Last Stand" -67%
#12 "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" -47%
#13 "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" -55%

 

Historically, only four films have had second-weekend hauls north of the $60 million mark.  "The Dark Knight" ($75.2 million), "Shrek 2" ($72.2 million), Spidey 1 ($71.4 million), and Pirates 2 ($62.3 million).

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Blind Side" $20.4 million ($129.3 million) -49%
#2 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $15.7 million ($255.6 million) -63%
#3 "Brothers" $9.7 million
#4 "A Christmas Carol" $7.5 million ($115.0 million) -52%
#5 "Old Dogs" $6.9 million ($33.9 million) -59%
#6 "2012" $6.6 million ($148.8 million) -63%
#7 "Armored" $6.6 million
#8 "Ninja Assassin" $5.0 million ($29.8 million) -62%
#9 "Planet 51" $4.3 million ($34.0 million) -58%
#10 "Everybody's Fine" $4.0 million
#11 "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" $2.9 million ($14.1 million) -59%
#12 "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" $2.3 million ($35.3 million) -67%

Despite most of last weekend's holdovers dropping more than half of their business from the holiday frame last week (which is usual in the weekend following Thanksgiving), business was still up 20% from last year, as well as being an even more impressive 29% compared to this frame in '07.  Moviegoers spent $92 million on the top 12 films this weekend, marking the biggest first-weekend haul ever for the month of December.  This is fantastic news for the studios coming off of what was the biggest November haul ($989.2 million) that the industry has ever had.  Admissions came in the fourth best ever for the month, on top of having the best ticket sales for any November during the last six years.

For 2009, domestic ticket sales grew to an astounding $9.654 billion.  We're in the first week of December and this year's total has already nearly matched that of all of last year ($9.680 billion).  This year's $9.654 billion total represents an 8% increase from last year ($8.926 billion), up 10% from '07 ($8.751 billion), 15% stronger than '06 ($8.385 billion), and a 20% improvement over '05 ($8.033 billion).  Overall theater admission numbers are estimated to be 1.345 billion, representing the strongest numbers since 2004.

After spending the previous two weeks in the #2 slot, WB's "The Blind Side" ascended to the top position this weekend as it was the only holdover in the top 12 not to lose more than 50% of its business from last week (it was off by 49%).  The movie, which is now garnering Oscar buzz for star Sandra Bullock, has now tallied just over $129 million and the studio now believes that the film has a very good shot at ultimately topping the double-century mark domestically.  'Blind Side' is benefiting greatly from terrific word-of-mouth on top of very solid overall reviews.  With a production budget of only $29 million, this one will end up being one of the studio's most profitable movies.

Dropping to the second position this weekend is Summit's 'New Moon'.  The sequel was off a steep 63%, but has so far earned $255.6 million.  The film has been making a killing overseas as it has now earned $314.5 million, giving it a global mark of just over $570 million.  The movie cost the studio only $50 million make ($65-$70 million counting marketing costs) and will end up earning well over $600 million worldwide for the studio.  With stars Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson, and Taylor Lautner negotiating their deals for the final film(s) of the series ("Breaking Dawn") as a group, look for them to receive extremely lucrative contracts.

Lionsgate's "Brothers" got off to a good start as it debuted with just under $10 million, giving it a decent per-theater average of $4,646 from its 2,088 locations.  The studio is hoping the film's Oscar buzz will carry it through the holiday season.  Disney's "A Christmas Carol" has now tallied $115 million.  Disney's "Old Dogs" was off by 59% this weekend as its total now stands just shy of $34 million.  A final domestic mark in the neighborhood of $55-$60 million is now expected.  Sony's "2012" is now just days away from passing the $150 million plateau.  It has now earned $148.8 million.

Sony's "Armored" got off to a decent enough start as it pulled in $6.6 million, giving an average of $3,446 from its 1,915 theaters.  The movie isn't expected to have the strongest of legs in the coming weeks.  WB's "Ninja Assassin" continues to under-perform as it has only managed close to $30 million since its release.  The same goes for Sony's "Planet 51" which is currently sitting on a domestic mark of $34 million.  Miramax's "Everybody's Fine" crashed and burned with audiences this weekend as it managed a soft haul of $4 million, giving it a per-theater average of only $1,888 from its 2,133 theaters.

Fox's "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" has only tallied $14.1 million since its release, while Lionsgate's Oscar hopeful, 'Precious', has now pulled in more than $36 million.  Not bad for a movie that cost only $10 million to make.  Paramount's Oscar hopeful "Up in the Air" debuted in the 13th slot this weekend as it pulled in $1.2 million from only 15 theaters.  That translates to a stellar average of $77,333.  Of star George Clooney's three films this year, "Up in the Air" will no doubt be the lone hit among them.  The film is also garnering a lot of Oscar buzz for Clooney as well.

Disney's "The Princess and the Frog" continues to earn crazy dollars from just two theaters.  The film earned $744K this weekend (off by only 5% from last week), giving it a whopping average of $372K.  The movie goes into wide release next weekend.

Other than "The Princess and the Frog", next weekend will see the release of Oscar-winning director/producer Clint Eastwood's latest Oscar touted film, "Invictus".  The movie stars Oscar winners Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon.  Both are earning Oscar buzz for their respective performances. 

While "The Blind Side" will no doubt continue to have strong legs, the top spot next weekend will very likely go to "The Princess and the Frog".  The studio is hoping for an opening mark well north of the $30 million mark.

I agree with you, this was the ideal time to open "Up in the Air" wide.

"The Road" has so far done pretty solid business in limited release, if this trend continues than Weinstein/Dimention will continue to roll it out slowly.  This past weekend saw the movie earn $760K from 128 theaters, giving it a very solid average of $5,938.  The movie has tallied $3.2 million in two weeks of limited play.  With all the Oscar buzz surrounding the performance of Viggo Mortensen, the movie should continue to earn steady numbers during the coming weeks.  The film isn't expected to go wide until after Christmas (likely sometime in January), again if it continues to have steady business.

Since the Weinsteins no longer have the resources they did when they were running Miramax, they have to be extremely picky about the movies they push into wide release.  This is also why you see the Weinsteins often teaming with other studios to get their films launched to begin with.  If "The Road" continues to do well in limited play, it will give them enough juice to ultimately expand it probably no more than 1,200 locations.  Again, the determining factor will be if the movie does very well in its limited engagements.