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2009 at the Box Office - Page 42

post #1231 of 1466
Thanks, Terry. So I suppose they charged more for Hannah Montana being 3D for every screen. And at just 600 instead of 4000 screens, there was complete nation-wide coverage, but still rare in any given area. It's ahead of #2 by a good margin.

Iron Man is on the list twice. The only old-ish movie is Return of the Jedi.
post #1232 of 1466
Thread Starter 
You should also take into account that 3D tickets are more expensive than admissions for regular 2D features.

The second "Iron Man" tally is the right one, the first is from the first weekend estimate.  I never took it off the list after I updated my notes.  Thanks for pointing it out.  I went back and fixed it.

'Jedi' was the first mega-blockbuster opening the industry had ever seen back in '83.  It cracked the century mark in a then-unheard of 19 days after it opened.  A record that stood until the '89 release of "Batman", which did it in 10 days.
post #1233 of 1466
who me Jedi? lulz kidding =).

what is the industry's expectation of Avatar? i'm hoping that fox/&other principles involved give us a detailed box office breakdown of 2D vs. 3D tickets sold because i dunno if:
1. the general public is even aware that this is being pushed to being seen in 3-D
2. the avg. joe even remembers jim cameron from titanic days...

i read dark horizon news i think that even now they are still finishing fx that'll push the last minute budget over 300mil (without marketing i think). do they REALLY think they can make ALL that $ back. i know they made a gamble w/titanic and it paid off, but this is hard SciFi, not star wars or LOTR where fantasy seem to give a bit of an adventure.

i know this is heresay but most of my friends just aren't interested nor care about avatar. they think it's another one of those fx films like 2012.
post #1234 of 1466
Quote:
Originally Posted by JediFonger View Post

i read dark horizon news i think that even now they are still finishing fx that'll push the last minute budget over 300mil (without marketing i think). do they REALLY think they can make ALL that $ back.
 


Not if they're sane. Fox has spent more on this movie than most country's gross national product. There comes a point when you spend more than you have any hope of making back and I'd be surprised if Fox hasn't gone way past that point by now. I'm glad that Cameron has a blank check to make the movie his way but Fox shouldn't cry or act surprised when Avatar 'only' makes $250 or $300 million and is proclaimed a flop by the media.
post #1235 of 1466

So it turns out that The Road is limited and it's not playing near me. Lovely. Too bad I already saw Fantastic Mr. Fox, as I was looking forward to hitting the theater the day before Thanksgiving. The sooner the Weinsteins go under, the better.

post #1236 of 1466
i really want to catch fantastic mr. fox, i've been excited about that project since it's a unique 'wes anderson' project =).

re: avatar, i predict somn around 30-50mil, it'll bomb compared to how much $ they have spent on it =). they should've been marketing since LAST year for somn that costs $300mil. i wouldn't have relied on the last 6 months marketing to get word out.
post #1237 of 1466
Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin_S View Post

Too bad I already saw Fantastic Mr. Fox, as I was looking forward to hitting the theater the day before Thanksgiving. The sooner the Weinsteins go under, the better.


What did you think of it? I've seen a trailer for it and wouldn't mind seeing it, but I doubt it will ever make it to the theatre up here.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JediFonger View Post

i really want to catch fantastic mr. fox, i've been excited about that project since it's a unique 'wes anderson' project =).

re: avatar, i predict somn around 30-50mil, it'll bomb compared to how much $ they have spent on it =). they should've been marketing since LAST year for somn that costs $300mil. i wouldn't have relied on the last 6 months marketing to get word out.
 

30-50 million? You are talking about opening day aren't you? I know I'm going to go see it and so far I'm not really that impressed with it. I'm lousy at predictions, but I'm going to guess that AVATAR is easily going to open North of a 100 million in its opening weekend. I think there is a pent up demand from fans who have been waiting a long time for Cameron to return to making movies. It has also been a long time since an even half decent hard SF film has been made, so AVATAR may appeal to SF fans. Whether it makes its money back or not is anybody's guess.
post #1238 of 1466
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S View Post


What did you think of it? I've seen a trailer for it and wouldn't mind seeing it, but I doubt it will ever make it to the theatre up here.
 

Loved it. I personally feel that it's Anderson's best film since Bottle Rocket. I'd be lying if I said I were familiar with the original Dahl story, but I think I can safely say that Anderson delivered his own personal touch to the project. It doesn't overpower the story though, ala something like The Darjeeling Limited. It's a very charming film. Also, the entire approach using stop motion and puppets lends the film a unique style that really works in it's favor. I'd say it's worth seeing for that alone, though far from the only reason to see it.
post #1239 of 1466


Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S View Post

 I'm going to guess that AVATAR is easily going to open North of a 100 million in its opening weekend.

Which is why everyone and their brother is going to believe the film is a massive failure when it opens to 60-75 million.

The biggest December opening of ALL TIME, domestically, is 78 million.  and that had Will Smith.  The Rings movies opened to something like 45, 55 and 75 million respectively (iirc) and just in general movies that open in December don't do massive opening numbers, even blockbusters.  They can play out with much longer legs and greater multiples from opening weekend--because there is so much vacation during the month, but in general it is not the period when massive openings happen.

post #1240 of 1466
no1 watched movies by directors. you ask regular avg. joe who james cameron is and they're like: WHO? hahahaha.

this isn't the golden age of cinema ;).

although i do think spielberg is MUCH more well known than any other directors alive before or since. EVERYONE knows spielberg. but any other directors it's pick and choose.
post #1241 of 1466


Quote:
Originally Posted by JediFonger View Post

no1 watched movies by directors. you ask regular avg. joe who james cameron is and they're like: WHO? hahahaha.

this isn't the golden age of cinema ;).

although i do think spielberg is MUCH more well known than any other directors alive before or since. EVERYONE knows spielberg. but any other directors it's pick and choose.

Agreed. And even the phrase "A Steven Spielberg Film" does not guarantee a hit (Always, Amistad, A.I., ...hey, maybe it's just Spielberg films beginning with "A"...oh, wait, add Munich and The Terminal (which also had box office king Tom Hanks, too)).

I doubt there are enough fans of "James Cameron" alone to make this a blockbuster.  It'll have to connect with the general audience, and I'm not sure it will. I think it'll have a decent first weekend, but after that I think the masses are going to be flocking to Sherlock Holmes.

I'm a moderate sci-fi fan who was interested in the project until I saw my first trailers. Now I'm not sure I'll see it at all. It doesn't look like what I expected and my interest has plummeted.
post #1242 of 1466

Quote:
do they REALLY think they can make ALL that $ back. i know they made a gamble w/titanic and it paid off, but this is hard SciFi, not star wars or LOTR where fantasy seem to give a bit of an adventure.

I don't really think it can be classified as hard SciFi though. I think it's more accurate to describe it as an epic adventure/fantasy/love story with some hard SciFi elements in it.

Cameron said in an interview that he believes it will have broad appeal. In a way, this IS Cameron's Star Wars: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2009/11/ff_avatar_cameron
post #1243 of 1466
what cameron says may not always pan out... did any1 remember Dark Angel ;).
post #1244 of 1466


Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam_S View Post




Which is why everyone and their brother is going to believe the film is a massive failure when it opens to 60-75 million.

The biggest December opening of ALL TIME, domestically, is 78 million.  and that had Will Smith.  The Rings movies opened to something like 45, 55 and 75 million respectively (iirc) and just in general movies that open in December don't do massive opening numbers, even blockbusters.  They can play out with much longer legs and greater multiples from opening weekend--because there is so much vacation during the month, but in general it is not the period when massive openings happen.

 

Which is why I said that I'm lousy at making predictions.

post #1245 of 1466
Yeah, no one ever heard of that Hitchcock guy...
post #1246 of 1466
colin, you will be SURPRISED!!!! remember not everyone is born before 1980s!!!! there have been MANY kidz born in late 80s and 1990s that have NEVER heard of who Alfred Hitchcock is, not even through their friends. =).
post #1247 of 1466
yup, kids nowadays will know who the current reality show star is yet know nothing of even their own country's history.  Sad state of the current mess we're in.  Just to point out: New Moon making so much money.  The end of the world is indeed coming!
post #1248 of 1466
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jose Martinez View Post

yup, kids nowadays will know who the current reality show star is yet know nothing of even their own country's history.  Sad state of the current mess we're in.  Just to point out: New Moon making so much money.  The end of the world is indeed coming!
 


You do realize that people have been saying that same basic thing for decades, right?
post #1249 of 1466
And that every year, there's more history for them to know? It's unfair.
post #1250 of 1466
Part of the way Avatar will get returns on its massive budget is from sales of elements/design of its effects work. The R&D value adds to the cost, but it expands the potential revenue to outside normal theater/home video channels. It's the same with Zemeckis's stop-motion films.

post #1251 of 1466
Thread Starter 
Friday Estimates

#1 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $17.9 million ($206.1 million) 75% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "The Blind Side" $16.2 million ($76.3 million) 46% Friday-to-Friday increase
#3 "2012" $7.0 million ($127.9 million) 14% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Old Dogs" $6.9 million ($14.1 million)
#5 "A Christmas Carol" $6.6 million ($96.0 million) 116% Friday-to-Friday increase
#6 "Ninja Assassin" $5.7 million ($13.5 million)
#7 "Planet 51" $4.1 million ($22.4 million) 29% Friday-to-Friday increase
#8 "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" $3.0 million ($6.1 million) 5,624% Friday-to-Friday increase
#9 "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" $2.8 million ($28.2 million) 22% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "The Men Who Stare at Goats" $630K ($29.6 million) 27% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "The Road" $560K ($1.0 million)
#12 "The Princess and the Frog" $277K ($708K)

post #1252 of 1466
Is #12 Disney's new animated picture? Is it in limited release? Otherwise, that take is one bad showing for a Disney animated film.  
post #1253 of 1466
BOM has it listed as showing in 2 theaters,
post #1254 of 1466
Two theatres? I checked their official site and it is showing that it is in limited release in LA and NY, so I guess that explains it. It shows the wide release is on Dec 11. It bugs me that it is just another formulaic Disney musical, but I'm going to see it anyway. CGI features are starting to look and feel the same to me, so I'm ready for a well animated 2D feature, even if it is just another stamped out princess story from the bottom of the basement of what used to be the greatest animation studio in the world.  
post #1255 of 1466
so how big would the twilight drop have been if it wasn't a holiday weekend where most releases increase their take from the previous weekend or suffer a drop of less than 25%
post #1256 of 1466
Thread Starter 
Summit knew what they were doing by releasing the movie the weekend before Thanksgiving.  They essentially guaranteed that the movie would have at least two big weekends of business.  This is a tactic that the 'Harry Potter' franchise is famous for in terms of their November launches.  If this were a regular weekend, the Friday-to-Friday drop of 'New Moon' probably would've exceeded 85%.  Overall, this weekend should see the movie drop 60-65%, instead of the 70-80% hit it might have taken if this were not a holiday session of business.

The next film in the series, 'Eclipse', will open during the Independence Day holiday frame next summer.  It's second-weekend fall will probably be similar to the one of 'New Moon', but since it will be summertime (and 'Eclipse' will boast far more action) the studio isn't expecting the bottom to fall out of its numbers during that sophomore frame.  'Eclipse' will be facing off with Universal's animated flick "Despicable Me" and Fox's "Predators" reboot during that second-weekend of being in theaters.

post #1257 of 1466
Thread Starter 
Weekend Estimates

(3-day)
#1 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $42.5 million ($230.7 million) -70%
#2 "The Blind Side" $40.1 million ($100.3 million) +18%
#3 "2012" $18.0 million ($138.8 million) -32%
#4 "Old Dogs" $16.8 million ($24.1 million)
#5 "A Christmas Carol" $16.0 million ($105.4 million) +30%
#6 "Ninja Assassin" $13.1 million ($21.0 million)
#7 "Planet 51" $10.0 million ($28.5 million) -17%
#8 "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" $7.1 million ($32.4 million) -35%
#9 "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" $7.0 million ($10.1 million)
#10 "The Men Who Stare at Goats" $1.53 million ($30.6 million) -46%
#11 "The Road" $1.52 million ($2.0 million)
#12 "The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day" $1.3 million ($5.7 million) +109%

(5-day)
#1 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $66.0 million ($230.7 million) -54%
#2 "The Blind Side" $57.5 million ($100.3 million) +69%
#3 "2012" $25.5 million ($138.8 million) -3%

#4 "Old Dogs" $24.1 million
#5 "A Christmas Carol" $22.6 million ($105.4 million) +84%
#6 "Ninja Assassin" $21.0 million
#7 "Planet 51" $13.9 million ($28.5 million) +13%
#8 "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" $9.5 million ($10.1 million) +4,568%
#9 "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" $9.4 million ($32.5 million) -13%
#10 "The Men Who Stare at Goats" $2.2 million ($30.6 million) -23%
#11 "The Road" $2.0 million
#12 "The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day" $1.9 million ($5.7 million) +217%

The box office remained scorching as the last two weekends have produced the biggest two-week run the month of November has ever seen.  This week the top 12 films earned a record-breaking $175.2 million (a stellar $255.6 million over the five-day period), marking the biggest Thanksgiving holiday weekend tally in history.  2009's incredible year-to-date haul now stands at $9.476 billion, which is a 8% increase from a year ago ($8.738 billion), up 10% compared to '07 ($8.638 billion), 15% stronger than '06 ($8.259 billion), and a 20% improvement over '05 ($7.912 billion).  An estimated 1.32 billion theater admissions have been sold thus far this year, marking the strongest ticket sales the industry has enjoyed since 2004.  There's little doubt now that 2009 will become the first year at the box office to earn more than $10 million in domestic earnings.

Despite taking a much steeper than expected 70% hit in business, Summit's 'New Moon' still topped the box office as it earned the fifth best Thanksgiving weekend mark in history.  The film's $42.5 million haul ($66 million over the five-day frame) only trails the Turkey-Day tallies of "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" ($57.5 million), "Toy Story 2" ($57.4 million), "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" ($54.7 million), and 'The Grinch' ($52.1 million).  'New Moon' has now earned an impressive $230.7 million, already passing the $192.8 million haul of "Twilight" last year.  The studio is expecting 'New Moon' to have a run similar to "Twilight", which also had a large second-weekend decline (-62%), but enjoyed a very strong run throughout the holidays after the initial steep percentage hit.  Look for a final domestic tally just north of the triple-century mark.

Overseas, 'New Moon' has now pulled in $243 million from 56 territories, giving it a worldwide gross of just under $474 million.  That easily moves it past the $385 million that "Twilight" earned globally.  This weekend's overseas haul of $85.1 million was off a very mild 31% compared to last weekend's opening numbers.  'New Moon' is well on its way to becoming one of the top five biggest hits of the year both domestically and worldwide.

The real story this weekend was the surprisingly strong second-weekend performance of WB's "The Blind Side", which earned the sixth biggest Thanksgiving weekend tally in history, just behind 'New Moon'.  The movie became the second $100 million-plus earner for star Sandra Bullock this year (behind "The Proposal") and has WB thinking that this one could ultimately leg its way past the double-century mark domestically.  The film cost less than $30 million to make.

Sony's "2012" is nearing the $140 million mark.  Disney's "Old Dogs" had a decent debut as it pulled in $24 million over the five-day frame.  Disney's "A Christmas Carol" passed the $100 million plateau, giving Oscar-winning director Robert Zemeckis the ninth such hit of his career.  Only fellow Oscar-winner Steven Spielberg has more $100 million-plus performers as a director (14).  WB's "Ninja Assassin" earned $21 million over the long weekend.  Sony's "Planet 51" continues to do decent, but far from spectacular, numbers.  Lionsgate's  Oscar hopeful 'Precious' has now taken in more than $32 million.  The film itself cost only $10 million to make.  Fox's "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" went wide this weekend but was met with a very lukewarm reception.  The studio is hoping for stronger results on home video.  Star George Clooney's other film, "The Men Who Stare at Goats", has also struggled to find an audience as it has earned just over $30 million in four weeks of release. 

Weinstein/Dimention's Oscar hopeful "The Road" had a very strong debut as it earned $1.5 million from only 111 theaters, giving it an average of $13,721, which was the best of the top 12.  Apparition's "The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day" has struggled to find an audience earning only $5.8 million in five weeks of limited play.  Disney's "The Princess and the Frog" opened in two theaters this weekend and pulled in $712K ($1.1 million over the five-day frame), giving it a jaw-dropping average of $356K.  The movie goes wide in two weeks.

Next weekend will see the releases of Miramax's "Everybody's Fine", Lionsgate's "Brothers", Sony's "Armored", and Full Circle Releasing's "Transylmania". Regardless of how well these films open, the battle for #1 is expected to come down between 'New Moon' and "The Blind Side".  We'll see what happens.

post #1258 of 1466
Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryRL View Post

Despite taking a much steeper than expected 70% hit in business, Summit's 'New Moon' still topped the box office...



Out of curiosity, how much was it expected to drop? I said it a few days ago but after a $140 million weekend, how could it not have had a massive drop? If 70% is much steeper than expected, I'd assume the industry expected a drop closer to about 60%. And in order to to have a 60% drop, the movie would have had to make about $60 million. Has any movie in history made $60 million in its second week of release?
post #1259 of 1466
The Dark Knight made $75 million in its 2nd weekend (52.5% drop from its massive $158 million opening weekend).
post #1260 of 1466


Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryRL View Post

There's little doubt now that 2009 will become the first year at the box office to earn more than $10 million in domestic earnings.
 


No wonder Hollywood is bellyachin' if they've been struggling all these years to break the $10 million barrier.

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