2009 at the Box Office - Page 41

Um...wow. 

The early estimates have 'New Moon' earning in the neighborhood of $80 million (wow!) during its record-shattering first day of business, which includes the midnight exhibitions $26.3 million tally.  The previous record was $67.2 million ($18.5 million from midnight showings) from last year's blockbuster "The Dark Knight".  'New Moon' is clearly on course to not only end up with the biggest opening mark of the year, but one of the biggest in history.
Edited by TerryRL - 11/21/09 at 5:15am

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" $140.7 million
#2 "The Blind Side" $34.5 million
#3 "2012" $26.5 million ($108.2 million) -59%
#4 "Planet 51" $12.6 million
#5 "A Christmas Carol" $12.2 million ($79.8 million) -45%
#6 "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" $11.0 million ($21.4 million) +87%
#7 "The Men Who Stare at Goats" $2.8 million ($27.6 million) -53%
#8 "Couples Retreat" $2.0 million ($105.0 million) -53%
#9 "The Fourth Kind" $1.7 million ($23.3 million) -62%
#10 "Law Abiding Citizen" $1.62 million ($70.0 million) -58%
#11 "Michael Jackson's This Is It" $1.60 million ($70.2 million) -69%
#12 "Pirate Radio" $1.4 million ($5.2 million) -50%

A whopping $248.6 million was spent on the top 12 films at the box office this weekend as business was up a spectacular 59% compared to this point last year.  The $248.6 million haul also makes this the biggest non-summer weekend of movie-going in history, overall it's the second best total behind the near $254 million top 12 finish from July of last year when "The Dark Knight" debuted.  2009's massive year-to-date domestic tally now stands at $9.028 billion.  This represents a 6% increase over last year ($8.535 billion), up 7% compared to '07 ($8.453 billion), 12% stronger than '06 ($8.046 billion), and an 18% improvement over '05 ($7.667 billion).  If business continues to remain this strong, 2009 will become the first $10 billion year at the box office.

Summit Entertainment's "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" gave the studio the biggest opening mark they've ever had, as well as becoming the biggest non-summer debut, largest November launch, and overall the third best start at the box office (behind "The Dark Knight" and "Spider-Man 3") in history.  The sequel earned a staggering per-theater average of $34,965 from its 4,024 locations, which is the fourth best in history for a film opening in more than 100 theaters (behind "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour", "The Dark Knight", and "Spider-Man 3"). 

Overseas, 'New Moon' got off to a great start as well as it earned $118.1 million, bringing its global total to $258.8 million.  While the movie was expected to be huge, it still came in above expectations as very few thought it would open north of the century mark.  The film debuted with bigger numbers than any of the 'Harry Potter' flicks, which had dominated November box office records since 2001.  Domestically, 'New Moon' has already sold nearly 20 million admissions.  With the Thanksgiving holiday frame next weekend, Summit is expecting 'New Moon' to have little difficulty in soaring past the double-century mark.  The third film of the series, 'Eclipse', is set to hit theaters on June 30th of this upcoming summer.  With these kind of numbers, I'd be stunned if the studio didn't split the final film, "Breaking Dawn', into two parts. 

After earning the biggest opening haul of her career last summer with "The Proposal" ($33.6 million), star Sandra Bullock improved on her great year by besting that amount with WB's "The Blind Side".  The feel-good drama opened with $34.5 million this weekend, coming in well ahead of studio expectations, which thought the film would debut with about $20 million.  The film is based on a true story surrounding events in the life of NFL tackle Michael Oher.  With such a strong start, on top of an "A" grade from CinemaScore, the studio is expecting this one to eventually top the century mark, giving Bullock the second such hit out of her three releases this year.  The movie earned a stellar average of $11,096 from its 3,110 theaters.

Sony's "Planet 51" got off to a so-so start as it pulled in $12.2 million, earning a per-theater average of $7,776 from its 3,335 locations.  The studio is hoping this one has a leggy run throughout the holiday season.  Lionsgate's Oscar hopeful 'Precious' expanded this weekend and looks like it will be a very solid performer though awards season.  The movie saw an impressive 87% increase in business and pulled in a massive average of $17,501 from its 629 theaters.

Next weekend will see the releases of Disney's "Old Dogs" and WB's "Nina Assassin", but 'New Moon' is expected to continue to dominate the box office, depending on if it takes a significant drop or not during the holiday frame.  Regardless of that, look for next weekend to be another big one for the industry.

BIGGEST PER-THEATER AVERAGES FOR WIDE RELEASES (42 films total)

($20,000-plus)

-“Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour- 3D” (Disney) $45,561 from 683 theaters

-“The Dark Knight” (WB) $36,283 from 4,366 theaters
-“Spider-Man 3” (Sony) $35,540 from 4,252 theaters

-“The Twilight Saga: New Moon” (Summit Entertainment) $34,965 from 4,024 theaters

-“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Disney) $32,817 from 4,133 theaters

-“Spider-Man” (Sony) $31,768 from 3,615 theaters

-“Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” (Fox) $31,607 from 837 theaters

-“Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith” (Lucasfilm/Fox) $29,619 from 3,661 theaters

-“Shrek the Third” (DreamWorks/Paramount) $29,507 from 4,122 theaters

-“X-Men: The Last Stand” (Fox) $27,845 from 3,690 theaters

-“Fahrenheit 9/11” (Lionsgate) $27,558 from 868 theaters

-“The Passion of the Christ” (Newmarket) $27,554 from 3,043 theaters

-“Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” (WB) $26,616 from 3,858 theaters

-“The Blair Witch Project” (Artisan) $26,528 from 1,101 theaters

-“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Disney) $26,302 from 4,362 theaters

-“Shrek 2” (DreamWorks) $25,951 from 4,163 theaters

-“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (DreamWorks/Paramount) $25,736 from 4,234 theaters

-“The Matrix Reloaded” (WB) $25,471 from 3,603 theaters

-“Star Wars: Episode II- Attack of the Clones” (Lucasflm/Fox) $25,317 from 3,161 theaters

-“Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone” (WB) $24,590 from 3,672 theaters

-“Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” (WB) $24,302 from 3,855 theaters

-“Iron Man” (Marvel/Paramount) $24,024 from 4,105 theaters

-“Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets” (WB) $23,997 from 3,682 theaters

-“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” (Lucasfilm/Paramount) $23,507 from 4,260 theaters

-“Return of the Jedi” (Lucasfilm/Fox) $22,974 from 1,002 theaters

-“X2: X-Men United” (Fox) $22,870 from 3,741 theaters

-“300” (WB) $22,844 from 3,103 theaters

-“The Lost World: Jurassic Park” (Universal) $21,985 from 3,281 theaters

-“Star Wars: Episode I- The Phantom Menace” (Lucasfilm/Fox) $21,825 from 2,970 theaters

-“Rush Hour 2” (New Line) $21,619 from 3,118 theaters

-“I Am Legend” (WB) $21,411 from 3,606 theaters

-“Spider-Man 2” (Sony) $21,232 from 4,152 theaters

-“Finding Nemo” (Disney/Pixar) $20,821 from 3,374 theaters

-“X-Men Origins: Wolverine” (Fox) $20,751 from 4,099 theaters

-“8 Mile” (Universal) $20,745 from 2,470 theaters

-“The Da Vinci Code” (Sony) $20,635 from 3,735 theaters

-“Fast & Furious” (Universal) $20,500 from 3,461 theaters

-“Twilight” (Summit Entertainment) $20,368 from 3,419 theaters

-“Austin Powers in Goldmember” (New Line) $20,224 from 3,613 theaters

-“Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail” (Lionsgate) $20,192 from 2,032

-“The Day After Tomorrow” (Fox) $20,071 from 3,425 theaters

-“The Mummy Returns” (Universal) $20,035 from 3,401 theaters

Edited by TerryRL - 11/23/09 at 10:39pm

The game plan is to see if the movie plays to strong enough business to warrant it (ultimately) going wide.  If it brings in strong numbers next weekend, it'll expand further.  If not, it'll quietly go away.

You're very welcome.

Sadly, you're also very right.  Respected filmmakers don't always put asses in the seats, which is the top priority for every studio.  Prestige films are now classified in some circles as "niche" movies.  I am glad that studios are still making these kinds of movies, but you often have to wait for DVD to see a lot of them.