2009 at the Box Office - Page 35

The general consensus is that "Inglorious Bastards" will open in the neighborhood of $25-$30 million.  The movie is expected to challenge "Kill Bill: Volume Two" ($25.1 million) as the biggest debut ever for director Quentin Tarantino.

Looks like "Inglorious Basterds" pulled in about $14 million during its opening day, coming in well above industry and studio predictions.  A debut weekend haul in the area of $35 million is now expected, easily making this the biggest debut ever in the career of writer/director Quentin Tarantino.

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Inglorious Basterds" $37.6 million
#2 "District 9" $18.9 million ($73.5 million) -49%
#3 "G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra" $12.5 million ($120.5 million) -44%
#4 "The Time Traveler's Wife" $10.0 million ($37.4 million) -46%
#5 "Julie & Julia" $9.0 million ($59.3 million) 25%
#6 "Shorts" $6.6 million
#7 "G-Force" $4.2 million ($107.3 million) -39%
#8 "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" $3.5 million ($290.3 million) -32%
#9 "The Ugly Truth" $2.9 million ($82.9 million) -36%
#10 "Post Grad" $2.8 million
#11 "The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard" $2.7 million ($11.2 million) -53% 
#12 "Ponyo" $2.4 million ($8.1 million) -32%

Moviegoers spent just over $113 million on the top 12 films this weekend, marking impressive 31% and 29% improvements over this frame from the previous two years.  Adding yet another record to its growing list of accomplishments, 2009 earned the fastest trek to the $7 billion mark in total yearly box office grosses.  This year's year-to-date haul now stands at $7.104 billion marking 7% increases over both last year ($6.660 billion) and '07 ($6.657 billion), up 15% compared to '06 ($6.200 billion), and 21% stronger than '05 ($5.865 billion).  Nearly 990 million theater admissions have been sold so far this year.

Weinstein/Universal's "Inglorious Basterds" opened well above industry expectations as the movie gave writer/director Quentin Tarantino the biggest debut haul of his career (easily passing the $25.1 million launch of the second 'Kill Bill' movie).  This marks the sixth $25 million-plus opener for star Brad Pitt out of his last ten movies.  The $70 million budgeted flick also looks on course to become the sixth $100 million-plus domestic performer out of Pitt's last ten movies judging by the strong exit polling.  If the film does go on to top the century mark, this would be only the second time that Tarantino has had such a hit.  His last $100 million-plus earner was 1994's "Pulp Fiction", which snagged him a screenplay Oscar.

Based on the tracking data, many were predicting an opening haul in the area of $25 million.  Some thought it would be lucky to earn that much based on the less than stellar critical reaction the film received.  The movie's larger than expected launch was fantastic news for the Weinstein Co. which hasn't had a big hit film in years.  Many in the company were fearing that this one would tank as bad as "Grindhouse" did two years ago.  'Basterds' also marks the fifth time this year that a film carrying an R rating debuted with more than $35 million.  The movie enjoyed a strong average of $11,881 from its 3,165 theaters, which was far and away the best of the top 12. 

Sony's "District 9" was off a moderate 49% as it fell to second place this weekend.  The sci-fi flick has so far tallied $73.5 million and is clearly headed for a final haul north of the century mark.  Paramount's 'G.I. Joe' is now sitting on a domestic gross of $120.5 million.  New Line/WB's "The Time Traveler's Wife" had a decent hold as it lost 46% of its business from a week ago, bringing its total haul to just over $37 million.  A final tally in the neighborhood of $60-$70 million is now expected.  Sony's "Julie & Julia" has now pulled in $59.3 million and could eventually end up topping the century mark if it continues to show such strong legs, losing only 25% this week (the best of the top 12).

WB's "Shorts" had a less than stellar debut as it only managed less than $7 million, giving it an average of $2,126 from its 3,105 theaters.  This marks the lowest wide release opening in the career of writer/director Robert Rodriguez.  Look for this one to fade pretty fast from theaters.

Disney's "G-Force" has now tallied $107.3 million.  WB 's "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" passed the $290 million plateau this weekend.  Sony's "The Ugly Truth" has proven to be a big hit for the studio as it has now earned just under $83 million.  Fox's "Post Grad" went mostly ignored by theater patrons as it opened with $2.8 million, giving it a pathetic per-theater average of $1,429 from its 1,959 locations.  Paramount Vantage's 'The Goods' was the only movie of the top 12 to lose more than 50% of its business from last weekend.  The comedy has so far taken in $11.2 million.  Disney's "Ponyo" rounds out the top 12 as it has now earned just over $8 million.

Next week will see a battle for the top spot between two horror flicks, the Weinstein's "Halloween 2" and New Line/WB's "The Final Destination".  The new 'Final Destination' flick is also being released in 3D.  It will be very interesting to see which movie tops the box office next weekend.  If both films earn big openings, next week could mark the first time ever that every weekend during the August frame saw the top 12 films earn more than $100 million.

Very interesting article from the In Contention.com site...

To adjust or not to adjust — thoughts on box office reporting

Posted by Chad Hartigan · 9:25 am · August 26th, 2009

It seems every week somebody writes a comment on the Sunday Cents column questioning the historical figures I present or wondering why I choose to use adjusted numbers when I cite them. The answer, I suppose, is pretty simple. I feel that’s the way to most accurately provide context for what happens today.

Tracking box office in general is a fool’s game. Box office reporting is done by the studios that release the films on, more or less, the honor system. In other words, a theater playing “Julie & Julia” calls Sony and reports their gross and Sony compiles it and reports it to the press. What’s stopping them from inflating the actual figures? Nothing really.
 

There are independent services that also compile grosses from theaters and every studio has a general idea of what every other film is doing but neither is 100% accurate. So when it comes time to report a final figure for “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”’s opening weekend ($100.1 million, if you forgot), there’s no way that Paramount is reporting a figure under $100 million, even if it actually clocked in at $99.2 million.
 

Another example: Sony stops reporting grosses for their films after a certain point while Fox reports until there isn’t a single screen left playing their picture. So “Angels & Demons” has a reported final gross of $133.4 million but it was still in 247 theaters when Sony stopped reporting. If Fox had done the same thing, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” would have a final gross of $207.6 million and not $208.7 million. Not a big deal? Maybe not, but the point remains that reported figures and historical data is far from 100% accurate. And yes, those “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” numbers are adjusted.
 

Finally, Kris has said before that he thinks dollar figures should be thrown out altogether and the number of tickets sold should be used instead. There’s a lot of logic to this since “Shrek 2” can sell three child-priced tickets in Iowa for $15 and “Moon” can sell one adult ticket at the Arclight and it’s worth $14.50. Fair? Hardly, and it makes the box office performance of kids films like “Shrek 2” all the more impressive. Again, all that is to say that box office should be used as a general barometer for success and not the be all, end all of judging performance.
 

So the argument against using adjusted figures is that it doesn’t accurately take into account things like Netflix, new media options and release patterns that are constantly changing, so the comparison is moot. Let’s look at “Titanic.” It opened with $28.6 million in 1997. Adjusted that becomes $44.8 million. Not adjusting means that we should be saying “Titanic” is comparable to “The Ugly Truth” and “Obsessed.” Adjusting means that “Titanic” is comparable to “The Hangover” and “Terminator Salvation.” Which makes more sense?
 

Sure, in 1997, people didn’t have huge flat screen TVs and Blu-ray DVDs coming out a few months after the theatrical release, but films were also released in far less theaters. “Terminator Salvation” opened in 3,530 theaters and “Titanic” opened in 2,674, so it evens out. If you go back to the 1980s, “Rocky III” opened in 939 theaters, so at that point it becomes silly to compare opening weekend figures. Accurate figures before 1982 simply don’t exist so those films are a non-issue. But I don’t think it’s crazy to adjust the numbers when comparing “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” with the other three “X-Men” films. Has anything really changed since 2000 aside from the price of a ticket? I don’t think so.

No more than what's been reported already. 

I am surprised that they started selling tickets so early.  The studio has a lot riding on this movie and with a rumored cost of over $300 million, this movie has to end up being a huge hit globally to see a profit.  The mixed reactions the trailers have earned thus far did put a bit of a scare in some of the studio brass. 

Jacob, I did see the IMAX preview.

Steve, the brass wanted everyone who saw it to be absolutely blown away by it.  They wanted reaction to be similar to what the original 'Phantom Menace' trailer received.  The movie is being sold as one of the most groundbreaking movies in history and the feedback from the previews were a lot more mixed than anticipated.  Yes, people are talking about the movie and that's never a bad thing, but that "talk" isn't generating the kind of "must-see" buzz that the studio wants.

The brass knows that the movie will open big, but they want it to be a film that plays to strong business (i.e. strong legs) through the spring months (April-May), with the DVD hitting shelves either next summer or next fall (depending on how strong it plays in theaters).  On top of all this, the studio doesn't like the "Dances With Wolves in Space" moniker that some have tagged it with.  "Avatar" is supposed to be this generation's "Star Wars" in terms of how it changes the industry.  The film is already a lock to win the Best FX Oscar, as well as garnering many other technical nods. 

The brass is selling this selling this thing on Jim Cameron's name and the only drawback is that he hasn't made a movie since 1997.  A lot of the key movie-going demo (15-29 year-olds) haven't even seen any of Cameron's movies on the big screen, experiencing them instead on home video.  I'm one of those geezers that was lucky enough to have seen "Aliens", "The Abyss", T2, "True Lies", and "Titanic" all on the big screen so the studio can be assured that I'll definitely be there to see his latest.  

Fox suits know the movie will do business, they're just a little concerned that it won't do the type of business they want it to.  From what I understand, the studio's "bottom" number is $250 million domestically with their top figure going beyond the $400 million plateau.  For a movie that carries a price tag of about $300 million, a worldwide haul of more than $800 million will go a long way to ease the minds of Fox brass. 

I thought the preview was pretty impressive, but I can understand why there were so many complaints.

Nope, I never saw the original Terminator in theaters.  I honestly wasn't interested in seeing it at that time.

As for this weekend, the reviews for both "The Final Destination" and "Halloween 2" have been horrendous and the tracking for both indicates a very tight race for #1 this weekend.  "The Final Destination" is expected to take the top spot with about $20 million, while H2 is slightly behind with expected grosses in the area of $17-$19 million.


Edited by TerryRL - 8/28/09 at 12:29pm

The suits are expecting the movie to clock in at between 2.5 and 3 hours long.  The studio would love the film to be under 2.5 hours obviously, but Cameron has final cut.  And yes, there will probably be an extended cut for the DVD/Blu-ray release.  Others have even hinted at the movie having a final running time closer to that of "Titanic" (about 3 hours and 15 minutes).  The final run time likely won't be released until sometime in November when the critics screenings start.

The early Friday estimates have "The Final Destination" pulling in more than $11 million today, while "Halloween 2" managed somewhere in the neighborhood of $7 million.  I had thought H2 had a slight advantage between the two movies, boy was I wrong.  Based on these early figures, FD looks headed for a $25 million weekend, while H2 will finish a distant second with about $17 million.  "Inglorious Basterds" looks to have taken a 60% Friday-to-Friday hit.