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post #271 of 432
1/20/09 at 6:34am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Since then, we've had Lehman Brothers, WaMu, Merrill Lynch, the bailout, a stock market meltdown, huge layoffs, repeated emergency interventions by the Fed and a general acknowledgement that the country is in recession. As we speak, Citicorp, one of the world's biggest financial institutions, is breaking itself up and selling off pieces. And still, there are people who want to dismiss what's happening as a media creation. I guess the old saying continues to be true: Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
To say nothing of the global scale of this crisis. Actually you did, but it bears repeating. (See Iceland). I watch newscasts from overseas daily. The ripple of effect from Wall St implosion last fall was terrible. It was perversely funny to see European banks claim they were safe... till they started tumbling one after the other. China's situation is worrisome for many reasons.

--
H
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post #272 of 432
1/20/09 at 3:03pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

We have cut up all of our credit cards and gone on a zero balance budget every month (i.e., we assign every dollar at the beginning of the month.) Whatever is left over at the end of the month is put toward our smallest debt, then next smallest, etc. (debt snowball). Wife shops with cash rather than debit card, and we are actually spending less than we used to.
We got rid of our digital cable service, use the HTPC to record our favorite network programs in HD, and actually cut our cable bill in half!
We've been renting Netflix for a couple years now, and that keeps us current with DVD and Bluray releases.
We are comfortable with the changes we have made, and look forward to being completely out of debt (except for our mortgage) in less than three years.
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post #273 of 432
1/20/09 at 8:13pm
Thread Starter 

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Stephen!

I have a friend in the steel industry; they've seen 50% drop in orders and reduced production by 25%. The expectation is that steel surplus is being consumed so there will be increased demand later this year, which they will be positioned to meet. They are also among the most efficient steel mills and hope to see competitors fail before they do, enabling their own longer term survival.

I'm trying to figure out how to go OTA HD to avoid Digital Cable costs later this year. I'm reading some personal finance books; I need to get my finances in better shape for long term savings and 401k investments. And I'm hoping (against hope) for 4.5% or lower mortgage rates to refinance at beneficial terms.

I hope my wife can add another client to her personal business. (If anyone needs print graphic design done, PM me )

I've decided against the large home investment of a deck, and will spend less money overall on various quality-of-life purchases. And my wife is waiting on me to review the annual budget she prepared last week.
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post #274 of 432
1/21/09 at 9:54am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Orr
We have cut up all of our credit cards and gone on a zero balance budget every month (i.e., we assign every dollar at the beginning of the month.) Whatever is left over at the end of the month is put toward our smallest debt, then next smallest, etc. (debt snowball). Wife shops with cash rather than debit card, and we are actually spending less than we used to.
We got rid of our digital cable service, use the HTPC to record our favorite network programs in HD, and actually cut our cable bill in half!
We've been renting Netflix for a couple years now, and that keeps us current with DVD and Bluray releases.
We are comfortable with the changes we have made, and look forward to being completely out of debt (except for our mortgage) in less than three years.
Stephen,

We've used the Ramsay plan for years. Not having credit cards is such a good thing in our estimation. Now our children have great disdain for credit cards every time they see an advertisement praising how wise it is to have one. So, it's working!

The Ramsay plan works, and it really does empower one not to be a slave to debt. Our only debt is our home (we purchased it before we learned of Ramsay), and that debt is going away much faster as a result of his plan. Best wishes with continued debt-free living.
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post #275 of 432
1/21/09 at 4:27pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

We've always been pretty frugal but have ramped up efforts a bit in recent weeks. Since I'm self-employed that means I'm pretty much unemployed at the moment and while my wife's job seems pretty secure who really knows at this point? We had saved and budgeted for some major purchases but instead we're just going to sit on that cash for a bit. And that's one of the consequences of this economy that just feeds the fire even more. Here we sit with a fairly secure financial footing and money ready to be spent but the uncertainty of what the future holds is keeping us from buying or spending in any significant amount. The list of planned purchases that have been scraped include new appliances, a new car, a Spring Break trip, and an addition on the house. How many jobs are thus impacted because we're too worried to part with our money right now?
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post #276 of 432
1/21/09 at 6:42pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

My wife & I had that discussion about how we should be acting financially. Do we stop spending money? If everyone did that the economy will be hard to fix and more people will be out of work. Do we still spend money? It will be doing our part to help the economy, but I am in automotive and we might need our cash to live off.
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post #277 of 432
1/21/09 at 8:40pm
Thread Starter 

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

The irony of all this is that for years fiscal conservatives have been calling for people to spend less and save more. And now that this this is beginning to happen, it's the worst possible thing people can do.

Deflation is our greatest economic risk, according to the economic reporting I've heard. People choosing to spend less can cause prices to go down, in response. As prices on goods decrease, money becomes worth more, and it pays to wait longer on purchases. So the downward pressure continues, with spending further delayed. In the short term, it's great for those with jobs because they get better and better pricing. But this deflationary cycle can lead to failed companies and high unemployment and great-depression-like national problems.

For each individual, it's rational to reduce or delay spending when faced with economic uncertainty. But as a society, it's irrational and damaging.
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post #278 of 432
1/21/09 at 9:11pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveF
The irony of all this is that for years fiscal conservatives have been calling for people to spend less and save more. And now that this this is beginning to happen, it's the worst possible thing people can do.

******

For each individual, it's rational to reduce or delay spending when faced with economic uncertainty. But as a society, it's irrational and damaging.
Not all economists agree on this. For example, the Austrian school exemplified by Peter Schiff (represented by the YouTube clips linked above) contends that only by moving from a society dominated by consumption to one dominated by saving and production can we create genuine wealth that won't disappear with each bursting bubble. And yes, we'll have to suffer a lot of pain before that happens, which is what Schiff kept saying when everyone was laughing at him in 2006-07.

Besides, when a society is as heavily dependent on consumption of imported goods as ours is, reducing consumption has distinct advantages. The reduction in our trade gap strengthens the dollar, which badly needs it.

The big drag on everything right now is still the uncertainty in the credit markets, which is caused by continued instability in the banking system. The bailout was only a temporary fix. Until credit begins to flow again (in a gentle but steady stream), nothing else will get accomplished.
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post #279 of 432
1/21/09 at 11:48pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
Not all economists agree on this. For example, the Austrian school exemplified by Peter Schiff (represented by the YouTube clips linked above) contends that only by moving from a society dominated by consumption to one dominated by saving and production can we create genuine wealth that won't disappear with each bursting bubble. And yes, we'll have to suffer a lot of pain before that happens, which is what Schiff kept saying when everyone was laughing at him in 2006-07.

Besides, when a society is as heavily dependent on consumption of imported goods as ours is, reducing consumption has distinct advantages. The reduction in our trade gap strengthens the dollar, which badly needs it.

The big drag on everything right now is still the uncertainty in the credit markets, which is caused by continued instability in the banking system. The bailout was only a temporary fix. Until credit begins to flow again (in a gentle but steady stream), nothing else will get accomplished.

What good is production if there is no one to consume it, because everyone is in saving mode? Also, what happens to a country, with an economic system based entirely on consumption, when the consumption stops? I'd think a massive depression, high unemployment, and civil unrest would follow.
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post #280 of 432
1/22/09 at 4:13am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Lets say that the standard of living is on a 1 - 10 scale. Back in the 80s the USA was a 9 and many developing countries were a 3. Then came along the global economy in the 90s and 00s(?) with NAFTA and relatively inexpensive shipping. This would help to minimize the gap between the different lifestyles. But instead of the just the "3s" improving to a 5 or a 6, are the "9s" going to come down a little?
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post #281 of 432
1/22/09 at 7:03am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S
What good is production if there is no one to consume it, because everyone is in saving mode? Also, what happens to a country, with an economic system based entirely on consumption, when the consumption stops? I'd think a massive depression, high unemployment, and civil unrest would follow.
Let's be clear: I don't claim to be an economist. I was just pointing out that economists disagree over the scenario DaveF was describing.

But even without being an economist, there are obvious problems with the questions you're asking. Just because people go into "savings mode" doesn't mean they stop consuming. If you're putting aside some money every month, does that mean you're not eating, or putting gas in your car, or buying new socks, or purchasing needed medicines? Makers and sellers of non-essential items may suffer, but certain products are always in demand.

As for "what happens to a country, with an economic system based entirely on consumption, when the consumption stops?", that would be the "pain" I was referring to (with the caveat that the consumption doesn't "stop" but rather slows). As I understand it, the answer of the Austrian school economists -- and let me stress, this is not my answer -- is that the society has to reorganize itself into one that's oriented toward production. It has to start producing things that it can sell to others.

In the abstract, it's not such a crazy notion. Translating it into reality is obviously a whole different problem. Which is probably why I could never be a good economist; I quickly get uncomfortable with abstraction.

(OOPS! Had to fix the typo. Left out the "un" in "uncomfortable". What a difference two letters can make. )
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post #282 of 432
1/22/09 at 8:16am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

When I first moved here, when I wanted pizza I picked up the phone and had one delivered.

Then to save money I picked up the bake-yourself ones from Costco.

Later on to save money I picked up the bake-yourself ones from WinCo.

Then still later on to save money I started getting the pre-mix dough from WinCo and made my own.

This month I'm at the bottom of the barrel: I got some bread flour and yeast and now make my pizzas from scratch. I think I'm down to about $0.80 for a medium sized pizza now. basic pizza dough recipe Hint: pre-sliced black olives are much more expensive than whole pitted black olives. Get a can of large whole black olives and slice them to order with an egg-slicer - which also can be used to slice the mushrooms.

Am I cheap or what?
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post #283 of 432
1/22/09 at 8:21am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
The big drag on everything right now is still the uncertainty in the credit markets, which is caused by continued instability in the banking system. The bailout was only a temporary fix. Until credit begins to flow again (in a gentle but steady stream), nothing else will get accomplished.
A temporary fix? By all indications, it hasn't fixed anything. So naturally the powers that be are gonna do more of the same.

--
H
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post #284 of 432
1/22/09 at 8:47am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Holadem
A temporary fix? By all indications, it hasn't fixed anything.
We're still here, and day-to-day life is mostly normal. "What-if's" are always a guessing game, but I am firmly convinced that, in the absence of any bailout, I would not be able to say that today.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Holadem
So naturally the powers that be are gonna do more of the same.
If by "more of the same", you mean spend more money, then yes. But there are more and less effective ways to spend money. The team led by former Treasury Secretary Paulson had a good model for how to proceed from the S&L bailout of the 80s, which I'm sure you're too young to remember. They chose not to apply that model, which is why the fix was only temporary. It remains to be seen how the new team proceeds.

(NOTE: The above is carefully phrased to avoid numerous political and potentially political issues. I'm not going to expand upon it, and anyone who wants to had better be able to do so as carefully and elliptically as the above. Otherwise, save it for off-forum discussion.)
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post #285 of 432
1/22/09 at 9:08am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Nicholls
When I first moved here, when I wanted pizza I picked up the phone and had one delivered.

Then to save money I picked up the bake-yourself ones from Costco.

Later on to save money I picked up the bake-yourself ones from WinCo.

Then still later on to save money I started getting the pre-mix dough from WinCo and made my own.

This month I'm at the bottom of the barrel: I got some bread flour and yeast and now make my pizzas from scratch. I think I'm down to about $0.80 for a medium sized pizza now. basic pizza dough recipe Hint: pre-sliced black olives are much more expensive than whole pitted black olives. Get a can of large whole black olives and slice them to order with an egg-slicer - which also can be used to slice the mushrooms.

Am I cheap or what?


Hehheh. Sign me up. I wouldn't mind saving the $20-30 we spend on one takeout meal whenever we order pizza (say once a week?).

_Man_
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post #286 of 432
1/22/09 at 9:44am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveF
I have a friend in the steel industry; they've seen 50% drop in orders and reduced production by 25%. The expectation is that steel surplus is being consumed so there will be increased demand later this year, which they will be positioned to meet. They are also among the most efficient steel mills and hope to see competitors fail before they do, enabling their own longer term survival.

Those who survive are stronger for all this -- seems to be a fairly universal truth me thinks.

Quote:
I'm trying to figure out how to go OTA HD to avoid Digital Cable costs later this year. I'm reading some personal finance books; I need to get my finances in better shape for long term savings and 401k investments. And I'm hoping (against hope) for 4.5% or lower mortgage rates to refinance at beneficial terms.

RE: the OTA thing, yeah, I was actually never big on cable/sat although I tried it a couple times before. There's more than enough entertainment for our eyeballs anyway w/out going that route, especially those of us spend $$$ on packaged media (whether renting or owning or even downloads nowadays). FWIW, a small part of the reason for considering a new HDTV would be the better OTA tuners built into them nowadays. I'm currently using a 4-yo(?), slightly flakey Samsung STB that doesn't deal as well w/ multipath and such issues as the newer tuners -- my in-laws bought a new Sony HDTV last fall and now enjoy tons of reception despite having worse multipath problems than me. I was also wondering how much I might save on the electrical bill going from my CRT-based RPTV to a Samsung LED-based DLP RPTV (though I suspect not really that much). The problem w/ not jumping on a good deal for a RPTV right now is the uncertainty of what will be available a couple years from now (or if/whenever my current one dies sooner than expected).

RE: the long term savings thing, if your company's 401k does some sort of company match, at least that part of it should be a no-brainer me thinks. Even if you're strapped for cash, you should still at least maximize the company match and then maybe borrow from your account as needed (and just pay interest back to your own account) -- and the $$$ doesn't need to go into the stock market either, if that's too risky for you right now. Also, it probably pays to factor into your equation where you are/would be in terms of tax bracket right now depending on how much you contribute (and whether to consider something like ROTH IRA at all). IMHO, when you receive your $$$ back at retirement, most (if not all) of that $$$ will likely be taxed at a lower bracket than what's being socked away right now, so I really don't see much appeal in something like ROTH IRA unless you're already maxing out all your pre-tax options.

RE: the mortgage refinancing thing, yeah, I'm wondering if the rates will drop further (and how long they'll stay this low). I'd like to get things in order to do a refinance for my mother's coop. Presumably, the rates would stay low for most of the year, if not much longer.

Quote:
will spend less money overall on various quality-of-life purchases.

Yeah, that seems to be the general theme for many, including ourselves. Just have to be more prudent on how/what/where to go w/ that -- and "less" is certainly not "nothing" of course.

_Man_
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post #287 of 432
1/22/09 at 9:44am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
We're still here, and day-to-day life is mostly normal. "What-if's" are always a guessing game, but I am firmly convinced that, in the absence of any bailout, I would not be able to say that today.

That was one of the questions I had back earlier in this thread. How to measure the success of the bailout. It is like playing with space time continuum theories. There are so many variables we can not measure if things would be the same with out the bailout, or if they would be much worse, or just different.
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post #288 of 432
1/22/09 at 10:38am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Man,

What's good is that my cheapo pizzas are actually comparable to "artisan" pizzas which generally are much more expensive than, say, Dominos.

Quite often you can improve the quality of life by doing more yourself.
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post #289 of 432
1/22/09 at 10:58am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by drobbins
That was one of the questions I had back earlier in this thread. How to measure the success of the bailout. It is like playing with space time continuum theories. There are so many variables we can not measure if things would be the same with out the bailout, or if they would be much worse, or just different.
Complete success would be if banks were making loans again, especially to small and new businesses. By and large, they're not. (SNL had a great routine about this recently: the ad for the bank that takes your money, pays you nothing, but at least keeps it safe. The ad ended with the bank official going into a vault stacked with mattresses, under which he stashed the depositors' cash. )

Partial success is that there haven't been bank runs, checks and credit cards are still honored, and generally life goes on. If you follow the stock market, though, you know that bank stocks have been among the hardest hit. That's because no one expects those stocks to have a good future, which is a pretty safe bet. (And no, I don't own any.)
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post #290 of 432
1/22/09 at 11:03am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Complete success would be if banks were making loans again, especially to small and new businesses. By and large, they're not. (SNL had a great routine about this recently: the ad for the bank that takes your money, pays you nothing, but at least keeps it safe. The ad ended with the bank official going into a vault stacked with mattresses, under which he stashed the depositors' cash. )
Then there is the bank that just wants to kill you:

Apple - Trailers - The International

I don't think they could have timed the release of this film any better.
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post #291 of 432
1/22/09 at 11:12am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cameron Yee
Then there is the bank that just wants to kill you:

Apple - Trailers - The International

I don't think they could have timed the release of this film any better.
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post #292 of 432
1/22/09 at 11:16am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Absolutely. The first time I saw that trailer I burst out laughing in the threater (I think it was before Revolutionnary Road 2-3 weeks ago.)

A productions like that couldn't have begun in 2008. Talk about luck.

--
H
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post #293 of 432
1/22/09 at 11:21am

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ockeghem
Stephen,

We've used the Ramsay plan for years. Not having credit cards is such a good thing in our estimation. Now our children have great disdain for credit cards every time they see an advertisement praising how wise it is to have one. So, it's working!

The Ramsay plan works, and it really does empower one not to be a slave to debt. Our only debt is our home (we purchased it before we learned of Ramsay), and that debt is going away much faster as a result of his plan. Best wishes with continued debt-free living.

Which book did you buy to learn about his plan?- Nevermind, found it.
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post #294 of 432
1/22/09 at 12:10pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Why do banks, at least here, keep building more BANKS on every corner!? I cant tell you the last time i walked into mine. Anything i need to do i do online, or with a phone call...so why spend so much money, building more banks!
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post #295 of 432
1/22/09 at 12:22pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RickER
Why do banks, at least here, keep building more BANKS on every corner!?
You're seeing the effects of expansion plans developed and put into effect several years ago. in the next year, maybe two, you'll see a lot of those branches close.
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post #296 of 432
1/22/09 at 12:38pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Nicholls
When I first moved here, when I wanted pizza I picked up the phone and had one delivered.

Then to save money I picked up the bake-yourself ones from Costco.

Later on to save money I picked up the bake-yourself ones from WinCo.

Then still later on to save money I started getting the pre-mix dough from WinCo and made my own.

This month I'm at the bottom of the barrel: I got some bread flour and yeast and now make my pizzas from scratch. I think I'm down to about $0.80 for a medium sized pizza now. basic pizza dough recipe Hint: pre-sliced black olives are much more expensive than whole pitted black olives. Get a can of large whole black olives and slice them to order with an egg-slicer - which also can be used to slice the mushrooms.

Am I cheap or what?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong
Hehheh. Sign me up. I wouldn't mind saving the $20-30 we spend on one takeout meal whenever we order pizza (say once a week?).

_Man_

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Nicholls
Man,

What's good is that my cheapo pizzas are actually comparable to "artisan" pizzas which generally are much more expensive than, say, Dominos.

Quite often you can improve the quality of life by doing more yourself.

Sign me up, too!

I, frankly, wouldn't have thought of the black olive/egg slicer trick. Do you use an unbleached wheat flour?

Food is almost always better (or, at least, should be) when you make it yourself. My wife disagrees (since she's the main cook in the household)...
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post #297 of 432
1/22/09 at 2:02pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Right now I'm using this but I am still in the experimenting stage.
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post #298 of 432
1/22/09 at 2:31pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

I'd really like to try it with a multi-grain flour.
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post #299 of 432
1/22/09 at 2:54pm

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

That sounds a little too organic/holistic for me...

The GM Bread flour uses hard winter wheat flour and malted barley flour - isn't that at least "2-grain"?

Sam's Club sells 25 lb bags of bread flour for $7.27 around here.
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post #300 of 432
1/22/09 at 3:25pm
Thread Starter 

Re: Are you changing your behavior in response to current events?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
Not all economists agree on this. For example, the Austrian school exemplified by Peter Schiff (represented by the YouTube clips linked above) contends that only by moving from a society dominated by consumption to one dominated by saving and production can we create genuine wealth that won't disappear with each bursting bubble. And yes, we'll have to suffer a lot of pain before that happens, which is what Schiff kept saying when everyone was laughing at him in 2006-07.
Michael, as I was posting, I knew you'd bring up the Austrian school! A friend who works in finance and is a real finance geek is an "Austrian" and was expressing his great dismay over the stimulus package and such things. It's beyond my knowledge to argue Keynes vs Austrian. All I can say is that Keynesian economics gets much more airplay.

As I said before, encouraging continued poor personal finance nationally and a 14% of GDP stimulus is worrisome to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong
RE: the OTA thing, yeah, I was actually never big on cable/sat although I tried it a couple times before. There's more than enough entertainment for our eyeballs anyway w/out going that route, especially those of us spend $$$ on packaged media (whether renting or owning or even downloads nowadays). ...

RE: the long term savings thing, if your company's 401k does some sort of company match, at least that part of it should be a no-brainer me thinks. Even if you're strapped for cash, you should still at least maximize the company match and then maybe borrow from your account as needed (and just pay interest back to your own account) -- ...

RE: the mortgage refinancing thing, yeah, I'm wondering if the rates will drop further (and how long they'll stay this low). I'd like to get things in order to do a refinance for my mother's coop. Presumably, the rates would stay low for most of the year, if not much longer.

Yeah, that seems to be the general theme for many, including ourselves. Just have to be more prudent on how/what/where to go w/ that -- and "less" is certainly not "nothing" of course.
I save aggressively in my 401k, but I've come to realize my asset allocation is a mess. I'm working on sorting that out. On the cable TV front, we're going spendy this year: new plasma, so I must upgrade from the $10/mo "lifeline" cable. I'd rather figure out the OTA thing than pay $60/mo on digital cable. And as I type, my wife is emailing the travel agent about planning our Disney vacation for this Fall. But these "extravagances" are in our budget, and we're taking a couple of pricey things (a dog, the deck) out of consideration for the year. If push comes to shove, my wife's new computer will be postponed or substantially cut back on holiday spending at the end of the year. As for the mortgage, rates went up today. I can only hope for a big drop, but it seems unlikely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
Complete success would be if banks were making loans again, especially to small and new businesses. By and large, they're not.
My dad is a tax accountant, doing finances for small business in his region, and he's some stories about that. Small businessman goes to his bank for a $3M line of credit; the bank says sure-thing if he'll just make a $500k deposit! (if he had that kind of cash, he wouldn't need the credit right now). This loan problem ripples into other unexpected area: churches are having mortgage problems. My dad's church hit the 5-yr balloon payment, went to refinance (as is normal) and basically their bank didn't want to deal with them. He's talked to other people handling church mortgages and has heard stories about this nationally.
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