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I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

post #1 of 89
5/31/08 at 8:02pm
Thread Starter 
Anecdotal evidence, I know, but my family is starting to ask about Blu Ray, Blockbuster is pushing it heavily, and for the first time there was a significant selection of BDs under $20, may for $16.95 at Best Buy tonight.

Christmas will be huge. Count on it.
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post #2 of 89
5/31/08 at 8:51pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

I was in the mall today and EB Games is running a promo on the PS3: trade in 8 games and get a 40 GB PS3 for $199.99. I've also seen the BD-UP5000 for $399.99, so sub $300 BD players can't be far off. Combine that with some titles now showing up for under $20 and BD may make into a few more homes.
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post #3 of 89
5/31/08 at 9:09pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
Anecdotal evidence, I know, but my family is starting to ask about Blu Ray, Blockbuster is pushing it heavily, and for the first time there was a significant selection of BDs under $20, may for $16.95 at Best Buy tonight.

Christmas will be huge. Count on it.
In my opinion, cheaper software is the key to success. I think most people are willing to swallow a one time higher price for the hardware but, like myself, do not want ot shell out 25-35 dollars for new releases each week.
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post #4 of 89
5/31/08 at 9:40pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

I noticed that the Walmart near me, which has never carried players, now has a few Sony blu-ray players.

They also have an end cap with blu-ray movies, most priced around $24.

Good news as far as I'm concerned.

Doug
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post #5 of 89
5/31/08 at 9:43pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick P
In my opinion, cheaper software is the key to success. I think most people are willing to swallow a one time higher price for the hardware but, like myself, do not want ot shell out 25-35 dollars for new releases each week.


I think some people are willing to pay a little more, but not much more. And I don't think most people are willing to pay more than the cost of a regular DVD player, IE $50 to $100 for a blu-ray player.

Doug
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post #6 of 89
6/1/08 at 3:07am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

The Wal-Mart Superstore near me now has an entire aisle dedicated to Blu-Ray titles for the very first time. The aisle is currently about 60% empty, but we all know that Wal-Mart's not going to waste shelf space like that, so I expect it to start to fill up rapidly.

The bottom line is that it does appear as though retailers are getting ready now for a big Fall push for the format. (In "retailer-ese" Fall means August!)
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post #7 of 89
6/1/08 at 6:51am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

That shelf space at Walmart was paid for, so their anticipation of future sales isn't playing a factor.

I don't think we'll see much of a difference in the acceptance of Blu-Ray this Christmas.
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post #8 of 89
6/1/08 at 7:23am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
I think some people are willing to pay a little more, but not much more. And I don't think most people are willing to pay more than the cost of a regular DVD player, IE $50 to $100 for a blu-ray player.

Doug
If that's true, then there will NOT be a big move to BD for at least another year (if not longer). People may have all sorts of personal reasons for not wanting to spend more than that (budget, other priorities in life, etc.) but IF they expect that BD players SHOULD cost the SAME as current SD DVD players (a more than TEN year old technology), they are being unrealistic and, simply, wrong. I did not expect my first DVD player (bought in 2000, about the same time frame as current BD players in their cycle) to cost me what a typical VCR cost at the time (and it did not--I paid a great deal more). I had many friends who were unwilling to spend more than the cost of a VCR (perfectly valid) but none of them EXPECTED, at that moment, that a DVD player SHOULD cost the same. They simply waited.

The same applies today. If someone wants to pay no more than a current SD DVD player goes for, then they should NOT complain about not having a BD player NOW. It is simply not a realistic expectation.
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post #9 of 89
6/1/08 at 11:23am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen_J_H
I was in the mall today and EB Games is running a promo on the PS3: trade in 8 games and get a 40 GB PS3 for $199.99. I've also seen the BD-UP5000 for $399.99, so sub $300 BD players can't be far off. Combine that with some titles now showing up for under $20 and BD may make into a few more homes.
You can get the Magnavox Profile 1.1 player at Wal-Mart for under $300 right now. Pretty good player for a non-enthusiast, too.
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post #10 of 89
6/1/08 at 9:07pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulDA
If that's true, then there will NOT be a big move to BD for at least another year (if not longer). People may have all sorts of personal reasons for not wanting to spend more than that (budget, other priorities in life, etc.) but IF they expect that BD players SHOULD cost the SAME as current SD DVD players (a more than TEN year old technology), they are being unrealistic and, simply, wrong. I did not expect my first DVD player (bought in 2000, about the same time frame as current BD players in their cycle) to cost me what a typical VCR cost at the time (and it did not--I paid a great deal more). I had many friends who were unwilling to spend more than the cost of a VCR (perfectly valid) but none of them EXPECTED, at that moment, that a DVD player SHOULD cost the same. They simply waited.

The same applies today. If someone wants to pay no more than a current SD DVD player goes for, then they should NOT complain about not having a BD player NOW. It is simply not a realistic expectation.


Its not a matter of them expecting anything. Its a matter of them going, "oh you mean I can get a blu-ray player and it's only a little more than a standard DVD Player? Okay sure".

I just don't think that HD is important enough to most people to invest in it unless it's close in price to current DVD players. I don't think most people would even consider a blu-ray player unless someone points out that they aren't much more than an SD player.

Doug
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post #11 of 89
6/1/08 at 11:32pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

There's no doubt in my mind Blu-ray is here to stay. People were just as unwilling to upgrade at this stage in the cycle with sd dvd vs VHS. The reason sd dvd won out was the ease of a disc based system. No rewinding, lasts a lifetime, special features, etc. People believe that the leap to sd dvd was so significant over VHS that Blu-ray just can't wow the people for it to happen again? Wrong. It will happen and Blu-ray has one monumental benifit going for it sd dvd did not, I can still watch all my sd dvds on my Blu-ray player. We couldn't do that with VHS. That will help make the transition much easier and much faster.
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post #12 of 89
6/2/08 at 5:30am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Same thing at my Wal-Mart...it's like Blu-ray just exploded in the place now (though they're gonna have to put some titles up at the front displays by the register to really seal the deal). I truly think this will start turning the tide because one thing customers usually won't stand for is something so seemingly popular that it's all over the place, yet they, as individuals, have no clue what it is. That's when they will finally turn to the techno-geeks (the "you and me's") in their lives they've been ignoring to this point and, at last, word of mouth will begin to work its magic; when J6P sees our excitement in the product, then the effect of "keeping up with the Joneses" will begin to take hold. And, frankly, Blu-ray is going to succeed one way or another because the tide of progress will ensure nearly everyone will have an HDTV within the next decade and no one is going to be satisfied at that point with DVDs that look worse than their HD cable/satellite. All this talk about will it happen, or will it boast the numbers DVD boasted by this point are all vapor...
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post #13 of 89
6/2/08 at 6:23am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by troy evans
People believe that the leap to sd dvd was so significant over VHS that Blu-ray just can't wow the people for it to happen again? Wrong. It will happen and Blu-ray has one monumental benifit going for it sd dvd did not, I can still watch all my sd dvds on my Blu-ray player. We couldn't do that with VHS. That will help make the transition much easier and much faster.

VHS was long in the tooth at the point of DVDs arrival and the transition was worth it because of how much better DVD was over VHS. DVD is still relatively new and the difference is minimal. And I continue to state that compatability only works in one direction... those new BD movies cant be played in DVD players throughout the house, etc... it's no biggie for me, but that doesnt go over well with a lot of families.
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post #14 of 89
6/2/08 at 7:37am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Colella
VHS was long in the tooth at the point of DVDs arrival and the transition was worth it because of how much better DVD was over VHS. DVD is still relatively new and the difference is minimal.
Huh?

DVD is more than 10 years old (an eternity in media age), and offered roughly similar resolutions. And many of it's "innovations" were already in place with laserdisc.
Quote:
And I continue to state that compatability only works in one direction... those new BD movies cant be played in DVD players throughout the house, etc... it's no biggie for me, but that doesnt go over well with a lot of families.
Well, that's a rather obtuse argument, and it contradicts your VHS->DVD argument, since that was even bigger incompatibility. At least with Blu-ray, you can still use your DVDs, and even get better PQ out of them. That didn't exist with VHS at all.
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post #15 of 89
6/2/08 at 7:41am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

BTW, here's some interesting news that says that the home video industry does indeed expect Blu-ray to eventually succeed DVD (emphasis mine):

Blu-ray format expected to dominate, but when? - CNN.com

Quote:
Analysts, movie studios and the Blu-ray Disc Association, a manufacturing group, all say Blu-ray discs will eventually dominate video sales. The question is when....

...Manufacturers are planning a souped-up lineup of titles and special features on Blu-ray discs to boost sales this summer and during the coming Christmas season in the hope that Blu-ray can turn around the sagging home video market. And retailers are creating new displays to explain Blu-ray's benefits.

U.S. consumer spending on home video rentals and purchases in all formats, including DVD, HD DVD, Blu-ray and VHS, fell 3 percent to $24.1 billion last year. The figure was expected to drop another 2 percent this year to $23.6 billion, despite a sixfold increase in Blu-ray disc spending to $1.3 billion, according to Adams Media Research.

The Blu-ray increase is not enough to offset an expected 6 percent drop in overall spending on DVDs.

Adams says it could take two more years for Blu-ray sales to put the home video market back on a growth path....

...To jump-start the changeover, studios are beginning to release movies in Blu-ray with enhanced bonus features like picture-in-picture director commentary. The new bells and whistles are meant to entice consumers to plop down as much as $10 extra for a Blu-ray disc compared to a standard DVD.

Blu-ray machine prices are starting to drop. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. began stocking a $298 Magnavox model in mid-May, said spokeswoman Melissa O'Brien. That's cheaper than most alternatives but a hefty price hike from a typical $50 DVD player....

...And Blu-ray's adoption curve is similar to -- maybe even faster than -- that of DVDs, backers say. Blu-ray players, now available for three years, cost $100 less than DVD players did at a comparable point in their life cycle, said Dorinda Marticorena, a senior vice president at Warner Home Video, a unit of Time Warner Inc.

"DVD was exactly the same thing. Players were expensive and there were not many titles. Lo and behold, the awareness went up and demand went up," said Andy Parsons, chair of the association's U.S. promotion committee. "It'll happen in good time."

Blu-ray still has a long, uphill climb. Last year, more than 101 million U.S. households could play DVDs, compared to 3.7 million that could play Blu-ray discs, including those with PlayStation 3 consoles, according to Adams.

But that's double the 1.6 million DVD devices that were in U.S. households in 1998, the comparable second year they were available. By the end of 2008, 14.4 million U.S. households are expected to be Blu-ray compatible, compared to the 9.4 U.S. million households that could play DVDs in year three....
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post #16 of 89
6/2/08 at 10:35am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
In my opinion, cheaper software is the key to success. I think most people are willing to swallow a one time higher price for the hardware but, like myself, do not want ot shell out 25-35 dollars for new releases each week.

I agree. I think a lot customers can stomach a HW premium. Obviously they will sell more as the player prices go down, but I think $299 is the magic price point for a lot of people. I do think that the higher SW prices and lack of selection at Target/Walmart class stores are the bigger obsticle. There needs to be a bigger percieved value than picture and sound quality for most people to justify paying $40 vs $20. Lowering SW prices by $5 and making sure that they have a decent amount of special features (to help "justify" the cost) will go a long way.
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post #17 of 89
6/2/08 at 4:04pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Adam, 30+ dollar HD discs are sometimes on the same advertising page with a DVD counterpart that's sub $10.

Count me as one who believes folks understand the hardware cost but are just peeved at the media prices. $35 discs sittin' in Tar-geaux & Busted Buy are providing passive advertisement against Blu adoption. It's a warning flag to civilians to avoid the format.

I'd be shocked if Blu passed 5% market-share anytime soon. Given the recession, I don't think a boom is coming for Christmas.
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post #18 of 89
6/2/08 at 4:17pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

As I've stated so many times beforehand, Blu-ray software needs to be more affordable if they want to increase the adoption of HDM/Blu-ray. Just about every catalog title needs to be lower than the $20 pricepoint. New titles should be about $25 and these are sale prices at BB, Walmart and the like.






Crawdaddy
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post #19 of 89
6/2/08 at 7:37pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

wasn't the pricing of sd dvd just about in line with this for the first few years?

i remmember that first wave of disney dvds, they were all a 39.99 price point.

And wasn't the Fox dvds the same as their lu-ray pricing, nearly $40 list.

also what is tar-geaux?
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post #20 of 89
6/2/08 at 7:41pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Tar-geaux is me mispelling Tar-jeaux.....Target store.
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post #21 of 89
6/2/08 at 7:44pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyD
wasn't the pricing of sd dvd just about in line with this for the first few years?

i remmember that first wave of disney dvds, they were all a 39.99 price point.

And wasn't the Fox dvds the same as their lu-ray pricing, nearly $40 list.
If one takes inflation into account, assuming the pricing numbers from 1999 are correct, then Blu-ray (both players and discs) are CHEAPER now than the SD DVD equivalent "back in the day".
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post #22 of 89
6/2/08 at 7:59pm

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
As I've stated so many times beforehand, Blu-ray software needs to be more affordable if they want to increase the adoption of HDM/Blu-ray. Just about every catalog title needs to be lower than the $20 pricepoint. New titles should be about $25 and these are sale prices at BB, Walmart and the like.
Crawdaddy

Yeah that's true, but lately good BluRay titles have been between $15 to $20 on Amazon. I mean stuff like Underworld, Resident Evil Extinction, Gattaca -- not obscure stuff. I'm buying plenty of BluRay discs recently, even though there is simply no BluRay player available to play them on. And I have friends who are in the same situation - they're ready to buy There's just no hardware available.
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post #23 of 89
6/3/08 at 2:28am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Will_B
Yeah that's true, but lately good BluRay titles have been between $15 to $20 on Amazon. I mean stuff like Underworld, Resident Evil Extinction, Gattaca -- not obscure stuff. I'm buying plenty of BluRay discs recently, even though there is simply no BluRay player available to play them on. And I have friends who are in the same situation - they're ready to buy There's just no hardware available.
Unfortunately, the majority of the mass market doesn't shop on Amazon and I'm not talking about those of us that shop all the time on the internet.






Crawdaddy
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post #24 of 89
6/3/08 at 3:06am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Blacklow
Huh?

DVD is more than 10 years old (an eternity in media age), and offered roughly similar resolutions. And many of it's "innovations" were already in place with laserdisc.

A HUGE amount of people only jumped onto DVD in the last 5 years, so to these people DVD is essentially only 5 years old (or less). The innovations of Laserdisc means nothing if most people didn't adopt the format. So to the vast majority of people, DVD was a new format that had innovative features they've never seen before.


Quote:
Well, that's a rather obtuse argument, and it contradicts your VHS->DVD argument, since that was even bigger incompatibility. At least with Blu-ray, you can still use your DVDs, and even get better PQ out of them. That didn't exist with VHS at all.

As I said earlier, VHS wasn't compatable in any regard with DVD - but consumers are willing to give it up when their current format is old and a new format offers so much more. People are willing to sacrifice compatability as long as you give them enough reasons to move to the new format. The difference between DVD over VHS is MUCH greater than the difference between BD and DVD. Sure they can play DVDs on their BD players - but it's a lot to ask that they have to replace all their DVD players so they can play that new BD movie they just purchased anywhere they have a TV - especially when the only difference between a DVD and BD is a minor increase in PQ which they can probably see in only one of their TVs anyways.
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post #25 of 89
6/3/08 at 6:10am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Colella
Sure they can play DVDs on their BD players - but it's a lot to ask that they have to replace all their DVD players so they can play that new BD movie they just purchased anywhere they have a TV - especially when the only difference between a DVD and BD is a minor increase in PQ which they can probably see in only one of their TVs anyways.

Hey ... Perhaps somebody can come up with some kind of hybrid disc which contains a BD transfer on one side and a DVD transfer on the other!! Then the same disc will play on all the older DVD players in the house!!!

Seriously ... In the case of catalog titles I think that most consumers now have their "favs" on DVD ... So when they purchase the BD equivalent for the main display they can simply retire the legacy DVD into "secondary" use on the older systems. And in the case of new titles ... If the title is deemed desirable enough to play on secondary displays then the DVD can probably be obtained once its discounted.

I don't think this is a big issue at this point.
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post #26 of 89
6/3/08 at 6:29am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
Christmas will be huge. Count on it.

I have also said this a few times and I agree. Good times ahead.
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post #27 of 89
6/3/08 at 6:51am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Media plays a huge roll in alot off things. Take the announcement about GM closing 4 production plants in the US, Canada and Mexico. Consumers who read, hear about this news, will start to wonder if their jobs are secure. Factor in the high price of gas, food and everything else thats going up, discretionary spending has to drop. Consumers are not going to be buying Big screens, BluRay players and Bluray movies if they have to spend more money on the basics. Personally I've cut my purchase of HD movies and can only see myself purchasing select titles in the future. I also think that we are 9-12mths away from seeing the real effects of the high oil prices filtering into the economy.
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post #28 of 89
6/3/08 at 7:27am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyD
wasn't the pricing of sd dvd just about in line with this for the first few years?

i remmember that first wave of disney dvds, they were all a 39.99 price point.

And wasn't the Fox dvds the same as their lu-ray pricing, nearly $40 list.

also what is tar-geaux?


I didn't buy any Disney or Fox DVDs early on, but the DVDs that I did buy were around $19 to $24. I don't think I ever paid more than $30 for a DVD unless it was a multi movie boxed set.

I remember buying an $80 Apex dvd player at Walmart for my sister in 1999. So a DVD player was available for a much lower cost than the current lowest cost blu-ray player at about the same life cycle. Very shortly after the introduction of the Apex player, brands like Sony and Samsung started marketing sub $100 players.

Doug
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post #29 of 89
6/3/08 at 7:58am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Just for the record:
* My first DVD player was purchased in November 1998. It cost $380 and came with five free DVDs with coupons to purchase five more at a discounted price.
* The first Disney title that I purchased was Beauty and the Beast: Enchanted Christmas. This was the first Disney animated title to be released to "open" DVD (Disney was favoring DIVX in those days). The title was "bare bones" and MSRPed for $39.95. I was able to purchase it for $34.95. The title was a test to see if there was a demand for animated fare on DVD.
* In the Fall of 1999 Disney "broke moratorium" and rolled out 9 animated titles ranging from "Pinocchio" to "The Little Mermaid". None of the Widescreen titles in this first batch were anamorphically-enhanced. The titles MSRPed for $34.95. I was able to find them for $29.95. Since I had never owned a LD player, I was *wowed* by the 5.1 audio and the ability to directly dial up my favorite scenes/songs from these movies. I was completely satisfied with the presentations and felt that I had more than gotten my money's worth. (Boy, have times ever changed!! The 2006 two-disc, anamorphically-enhanced "Little Mermaid" re-issue was loaded with extras and "streeted" for $19.95. It was deemed a disappointment due to its too agressive Home Theater Mix 5.1 audio track.)
* In February 2000 Disney released its first anamorphically-enhanced title: "Tarzan". It actually contained supplements as well and could be purchased in its single disc form for as little as $24.95.
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post #30 of 89
6/3/08 at 9:16am

Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulDA
The same applies today. If someone wants to pay no more than a current SD DVD player goes for, then they should NOT complain about not having a BD player NOW. It is simply not a realistic expectation.
And it's also not realistic for hardware manufacturers to expect consumers to pay a huge premium for BD players if they are looking for expanded adoption. In my experience the discs (in general) last a lot longer than players, and looking at the >$2000 pile of dead DVD players I have, I'm in no hurry to start adding BD players to the mix. It will take $50 players for the format to go mainstream, but $150 will be the level where adoption will look more attractive to the middle market.

Although it is improving, I still don't see enough content that is compelling me to buy into BR yet. The majority of those budget discs are titles I already have on DVD (and won't be replacing) or ones I simply have no interest in.
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