More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge - Page 4

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I read your statement to my wife (she does the weekly shopping) and her comment was, "what planet does he live on."
I have to spend several minutes calming my wife down after each trip to Walmart for the groceries and listening to how much this has gone up or how that has nearly doubled in price!

On a more personal note, the discount theater that I regularly attend has recently raised their prices from $1 to $1.25 for the first raise in 5 years and the popcorn has gone from $4.50 to $5.50. Outrageous!!!

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Well, you also have to look at things like GTA 4 selling more than any other media in it's first week at $60 a pop. When that stuff happens it's hard to swallow the "BD discs are too expensive" line. As I said earlier economy for some may be a very real factor. That would apply to anything though, and Yet people still go to movies and eat out and so on. If were talking discretionary spending then you would think people would scale this back as well.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Comparing video game sales to movie sales is apples to oranges. Video games are interactive and movies are passive. People are willing to pay more for the interactivity of video games. GTA is also a special case. There was a pent up demand for a new installment from gamers who had played previous incarnations of the game. The same cannot be said of movies.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Aren't they trying to make BD's more interactive like video games? The Master And Commander BD I viewed had a bunch of inter-acting junk on it. I could of chosen to have been informed where on the map the H.M.S. Suprise was as it journeyed along. I don't want my movies made into game-like thangs, especially at the expense of BD-Java which eliminates the Resume function of my players.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I didn't say that prices hadn't gone up, I said they aren't anywhere near all time highs when adjusted for inflation. Even the price of gas isn't as high, when adjusted, as it was in 1982.

I guess a lot of you don't remember the 70s when we were REALLY in a recession. When unemployment was around 8.5% and taxes were taking almost 50% of your income.

Walmart recently reported that while sales were off for about 2 months in the winter, that their sales were right back up to normal levels last month. Ford last month reported a profit for the first quarter of 2008. Ford has been in the red for something like 18 months. So SOMEONE must be spending money.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

To me, the meaning of the word "interactivity" is different in regards to movies and video games. Video games are interactive in the sense that you, as the player, directly effect the outcomes that occur throughout the game. In movies, interactivity means controlling a series of features that are supposed to give further insight into the film; however, a person has no effect on the outcome of the movie. It is still essentially a passive activity while a video game requires considerably more audience participation to move a story or events forward.

Interactivity with a movie is voluntary. If the participant chooses not to use an interactive feature there is no detrimental effect. You can still watch the film. Video game inteactivity is mandatory. No audience participation means no progression.

That is why, to me, interactive features are not a good excuse for higher prices on BD discs. Interactivity does not add any particular value to the act of watching a movie, so why pay more for it? In fact, from some of the complaints I have read, interactivity during a film actual reduces the enjoyment of watching a film because a person is taken out of the film by the need to perform some action for little actual gain.

The biggest strength of movies is passive participation. A well made movie with a good story causes a person to fully invest in the experience. The participant gets fully absorbed into the experience and can even lose track of time while watching. In that environment, "interactivity" is a bad thing.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

A good video game should also provide you with at least 10 or 20 hours of unique game play, not to mention re playability, making the $50 price a much better value in comparison.


Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

the bottom line for me is, that the general public just does not value an upgrade in PQ enough to get new equipment (and more importantly, learning how to use it).

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

This argument just goes round and round. If a majority of people think that buying an HD display automatically gives them an HD picture (and many surveys show that people think just that) AND you have 50 or more SD DVD players with 1080p in giant lettering/numbering all over the boxes claiming to "upgrade your regular DVDs to high definition" (you've all seen such packaging) AND you have salespeople reinforcing that lie (because that is what it is--and I've argued with several people until I was blue in the face that their player did NOT make SD DVD into high definition, that in fact that was IMPOSSIBLE, but to no avail--and these are people I know, not strangers) AND the fact that even fewer people care about properly set up audio than they do video AND that the principle reason they buy HD displays is for a BIGGER picture and a smaller profile TV--NOT to enjoy the "subtle" (and don't kid yourselves, to most people, it is subtle, particularly under 50 inches) improvment in PQ (remember, they think their display automatically gives them HD for TV and their 50$ "upconverting" DVD player is transforming their SD DVDs into high definition).


(I know, a run-on sentence, but I did it to make a point)

Factor in ALL the above (leave out the economy if you wish, but for most people, it most certainly IS a factor because the majority PERCEIVES the economy to be going badly--regardless of its actual state) and it should be quite clear that Blu-ray faces an uphill battle. I certainly hope it becomes the standard as I appreciate all it brings--but I am equipped and informed enough to do so and I care about it. These are not generally shared by the broad public.

And consider that I (quite without unnecesary boasting) am more knowledgeable of and sensitive to PQ and SQ issues than, conservatively, 95% of the general public but when I wander in here and elsewhere I find people complaining about "glaring errors" that I don't even notice (or wouldn't if I didn't read about them in here--and even then, I find the "errors/flaws", in the overwhelming majority of cases, to be rather minor--certainly not the "omg I can't watch such dreck/the film is ruined/etc." that gets expressed by some people in fora like this one). That just adds an additional layer of complication.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I like the way you've managed to "adjust" inflation and the erosion of purchasing power right out of the picture. But you forgot the other half. Adjust the average wage for inflation as well. Now factor in the debt load carried by the average American today vs. 20 years ago.

The media isn't fabricating a crisis so much as catching up late with a story that's been brewing for some time. Here's a reliable indicator. When a major Wall Street financial firm collapses, the crisis is probably real. In the late 80s, it was Drexel. Currently it's Bear Stearns.

M.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Michael, I don't really dispute the economic concern, but at least some of the blame w/ the Bear Stearns debacle has to do w/ poor judgement of those running the firm, not just w/ the economy though -- and really, the worst predictions haven't even happened yet (and let's hope they don't come to pass).

Back circa 1994(?) right when the economy was starting to come out of the then latest recession-like state, a centuries-old major British financial institution collapsed practically overnight also, but that was essentially entirely due to a mix of poor judgement and operating policy -- and one "rogue" trader.

_Man_

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I just had to laugh when I read this. That is as far as I will go.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Then the rest of it's just a detour. Back to the thread.

M.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Bear Stearns collapsed because of questionable loan practices, that have nothing to do with inflation, and everything to do with giving ARM loans to people who couldn't afford them.

Again I didn't say that there wasn't some inflation, there is. It is almost completely a direct result of fuel prices. What we don't have based on the reports from Walmart and Ford is a recession, because people obviously haven't stopped buying things. I have a very vivid memory of the recession in the 70s when bread on store shelves was turning to mold because people weren't buying it.

And yes I'm talking about prices related to average wage figures. We are no where near the lows we hit in the late 70s. Again the media would like you to think there is a huge crisis out there, but the fact of the matter is that the majority of Americans are holding no more debt now than they did 20 years ago.

Then there is the housing crisis which actually effects less than 4% of the housing market.

Again I'm not saying that there aren't problems out there, clearly there are, but its not the big boogy man that the media is making it out to be. In the media EVERYTHING is a crisis. I saw a report last week on CNN about how humans breathing was a global crisis!

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

That's not true at all. Why oh why does everyone think that if Blu-ray ends the year on arounf 10-15% market share it would be a bad thing? That would be an increase from 3% in January. Current internal predictions (I'm sorry, I can't be exact, they are internal for a reason) put market share at 1/6th or less of the home video market by "Q5" 2008. We have all of the information in our hands as well, what type of promotional activities are planned and pricing schemes etc... which helps us make a better prediction than other companies.

If you take 1/6th, in two years, that's not bad, but I get the feeling that they are being over-aggressive and will actually get around an 1/8th of the market, even that's pretty good though.

Anyway, back to the pricing, there is not any need for that type of urgency, downloads (despite what some snake oil salesman from certain software companies might say) are not going to come to fruition for a long time. Sure the lucky few who get FiOS can boast all they like that they can stream 1080p HD, but in reality, widespread support of huge bandwidth like that is not going to be a reality for another 10 years, and that's an optimistic view.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

In Ford's case it was us Europeans. The Euro auto made loads of cash, but the US operation struggled to break even. That's the normal pattern, and since the EUR and GBP are so much more valuable that the USD right now, Ford have done very well, pay workers in USD, and earn money in something worth 1.5-2x more.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Isn't that like saying, "I must not be too sick, because my fever hasn't hit 106 yet"?

I'd love to see the source for your figures. As for Bear Stearns, I'm not going to try to correct you, because frankly it would take too long and be too much of a digression.

In a relatively short time, we're going to find out what level of adoption Blu-ray achieves. If it's a success, all this will be moot. If it's not, then we can revisit this, assuming that anyone's interested in a post mortem.

M.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Truth be told, some of us like a certain person named Robert Crawford, who is using his third generation HD receiver/dvr from DirecTV and who will soon have his third generation Panny Blu-ray player will most likely use both formats to enjoy HD material. Chances are the latter will be utilized for most of my purchases. However, why cut off ones nose to spite your face?

God, I like talking about myself in third person.







Crawdaddy

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Ain't that the truth.

I'll say this, the US growth projections set out by the Whitehouse are, err, optimistic. If I were a betting man, I would say some revisions will be made in a couple of years...

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I hate to tell you this but downloads are here now. I have the base priced cable connection from Cox and at this point I could download a blu-ray quality 2 hour film in less than an hour. Cox is also offering HD movies on demand right now. I can get 1080p video streaming on my computer in about 30 seconds.

I have the same basic cable connection that is available to the whole city of Phoenix. Yes if I had DSL I couldn't do it, but this argument about lack of bandwidth at least based on my own experience, is bunk.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

See bolded part...

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I'm sorry your point is? You would really have to bold the whole thing where I say that the whole city of Phoenix has the same connection available to it. This is the same connection speed that Cox is making available over its whole network.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Cable right?

So what happens when the whole city signs up to it? I'm on Virgin Media 20Mbit (in-name only), and live in a city where the adoption of cable is very high, during peak hours I barely get real-time speeds of 0.5Mbit. When all of those people are settling in for the night trying to get their on demand movie, but network crunch (cable is susceptible to it) means the movie won't stream in real time, do you think they are going to wait around?

The only service which is viable for HD on-demand streaming is FiOS. Anything based on ADSL of any form of DOCSIS is never going to be good enough.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Max-
We often forget that it takes a while for new formats to get adopted. Even with the negatives being discussed here (economy, etc) are most of the studios and CE companies comfortable with where BD is at now (sales numbers), and are the numbers currently on target for their Q5 goal? If not, is it fair to assume that they will get more aggressive with prices and promotions as the year progresses to attempt to meet it?

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Actually the whole city has been upgraded to this speed level and Cox is in about 70% of homes in the Phoenix area, a metropolitan area of about 4 million people.

I regularly get 30 Mbps download speeds day or night, and am frequently downloading from different sources to different computers at the same time with no change in the download speed. I've never had a streaming video take more than about 30 seconds to start.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

To hit that target, no.

Expect some nice promotional activity towards the end of Q3 building up to a big Q4.

Unfortunately we are having a massive problem that a few companies and studios are getting too comfortable, and reminding them that they have an upwards battle with DVD gets really old, fast.

That's for a different discussion though... *sigh*

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

But DVD didn't seem so painful becase we had been paying $50-125.00 for LDs, and the .com boom was going on. I remember 3 for $1 at 800.com and 40% off all preorders at reel.com. I helped drive several .coms out of business . Now that we are used to low prices on DVDs, and had a lot of sales (on both sides) during the "format war" it's hard to stomach higher SW prices. I have to wait for sales and then binge. Thank you Frys! I admit I made a few impuse buys at their $11.99 sale on Friday...

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Are they the only provider or broadband internet in Phoenix?

I'm going to guess no, and they compete with ADSL offerings etc....

Cableco's always underprovide bandwidth, most budget for around 30-40% market share in areas they can provide to. If the service gets a good reputation it can get well above that, which is when bandwidth crunch sets in. Unless Cox are a new style of cableco who don't do this then it will be an issue. It always is.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Nice! Looking forward to it. I'll start saving now so I don't get in too much trouble.



Good luck with that. A lot of people forget that the "format war" was really just the first round with the winner moving on to battle the current world champion: DVD

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Our phone company provides DSL, and there used to be a small mom and pop cable company in the valley but I believe they were bought out by cox and I don't think they ever provided internet service. Again Cox has about 70% of the market in Phoenix.

Doug