More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge - Page 3

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I don't hope that blu-ray fails, but I think it will if the prices remain where they are. At this point I don't think Mom and Dad with their 2.3 children are going to buy into blu-ray unless the prices are around or below $100 for a player. Most people I talk to can see the difference, they just don't think of it as a big enough deal to spend that much money on. If the players were priced closer to the prices of DVD players I think they would consider upgrading, but not before.

I was saying this about HD DVD as well, somewhere between $100 and $150 is the magic number. Until and unless it gets there, blu-ray is the next SA-CD.

It never really mattered to me which format won the war, but many of us were saying, even before HD DVD was killed, that the real war was with DVD and unless the powers that be behind blu-ray do something fast, their chance will pass them by.

Also I don't hope that blu-ray remains a niche. Being a niche format means that most of my favorite films will never make it to blu-ray. A format that can't support a film like Casablanca is a failure indeed.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Nobody is disagreeing with pricing nor family budget issues which has been stated by most in this thread. However, the adoption of this format is beyond just the control of Sony.





Crawdaddy

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

While it's very true that Sony isn't all powerful when it comes to the format, we are talking about the future of blu-ray here. If Sony and some of the other companies involved in the format don't do something pretty quickly, then they might as well not bother, because blu-ray will have lost the format war also.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

It also seems that there's a contingent of people who are scared that they will 'have' to buy all their titles again so they keep repeating that high definition will fail in the hopes that it becomes true. I don't understand why they thought that DVDs would be the last word or that their DVDs will somehow go bad just because an HD version of the same movie is available but they certainly seem to.

I still buy more DVDs than Blu Rays so I wouldn't consider DVD ruined but I do think that SOME parts of the laserdisc days were good (like a format that catered to enthusiasts). Of course, they cost a heckuva lot more money and no one wants to go back to that. While I've said that I don't care if Blu Ray catches on or not, I will be just as happy if Blu Ray achieves or exceeds the level of success that DVD has because I think that if Blu Ray is eventually a massive success or if it is a niche (that is larger than LD but still a niche) both outcomes have positive aspects.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Well I'm the guy who buys everything twice, once on DVD and once in HD, which ever format that happens to be, so I'm not one who is worried about buying movies more than once.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I'm not saying that everyone who thinks that Blu Ray isn't going to make it or that anyone who doesn't have a rosy view of Blu Ray's future falls into that category but it's obvious that there's some who do. I have friends in the 'real' world who definitely have the "High defitinion is doomed" mantra and it's because they don't want to rebuy everything.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I think I would have a much more positive out look of blu-ray if I saw that there were some really exciting films coming. While there are a few interesting titles announced in the next few months, there is nothing that is really getting me excited. The last film that got me excited was Blade Runner, and there is just nothing of that caliber on the way.

I take that back, The Third Man from The Criterion Collection has me a little excited.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

What do you mean something pretty quickly? Also, Sony like many other companies are being hurt by the current economic conditions so their hands are tied to a point for any immediate solution.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

How about the Dirty Harry Collection, Patton, The Longest Day, The Sand Pebbles, A Bridge Too Far, Battle Of Britain, Black Narcissus, Great Expectations, Boys From Brazil, The Professionals, One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest, How The West Was Won, Pale Rider, The Fog, Escape From New York, Cool Hand Luke, Contempt, Man Who Fell To Earth, Walkabout, Wages Of Fear and The Third Man?

I was as pessimistic as you the first few months of the year but since then there has been plenty announced that gets me excited. Especially with Criterion coming on board and Fox/MGM dipping into their classic catalogue things are looking up.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I can understand that there are some on here that truely are feeling the economic pinch. However, I also feel that for some it is nothing more than an excuse to spread doom and gloom over the fact that their pissed because Blu-ray won. Now, it's SD DVD vs. Blu-ray, the new format wars. This is nonsense and pure sour grapes. The masses will get into Blu-ray. The PS3 has helped that along and player prices will more than likely be at $300 or below by Christmas, if not lower. We're looking at all the new televisions hitting the market being hi-def as proof that the masses must be interrested in it. In 2009 all broadcasting goes digital. It doesn't seem like too big of a leap to think that Blu-ray will replace sd-dvd as the disc based format. All signs point to a bright future for Blu-ray.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I mean that the prices have to come down and come down soon. They need to have a 2.0 stand alone player under $200 by Christmas.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

The Dirty Harry Collection is a no sale for me because I only want the first movie. I'll probably buy Patton, Battle of Britain, How the West Was Won and The Third Man.

I've seen no announcement about Escape From New York. If it is in deed coming I'll buy it.

What would get me excited about blu-ray would be some actual classics such as Casablanca, The Adventures of Robin Hood and Forbidden Planet to name just a few that haven't yet made the transition from HD DVD.

Beyond those, some Hitchcock films would get me VERY excited. Some classic film noir such as The Big Sleep, Out of the Past, Double Indemnity and Laura.

Some of Fox's 50s and 60 CinemaScope pictures. I'd love to see Desk Set, Fantastic Voyage, The Robe and 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea from Disney.

Some of the 70mm epics would be nice. I hear that Lawrence of Arabia is on the way but that won't be for at least another year.

These are some films that would get me "jumping up and down gotta have it on day one" excited. I realize that Sony has no control over the titles listed here and that they have started to release a few classics from their own library, however if the studios are in deed looking for a new revenue stream, then they better start priming the pump.

My fear is that they have begun to see physical media as yesterday's news. Honestly as a provider of content, I see downloads as having no downside at all. With downloads I don't have to manufacture anything, I don't have to package anything, and I don't have to ship anything. The only costs are a server somewhere to store the download copy, and advertising.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I have to agree that all the talk about the economy is much ado about nothing. It is really being pushed by a media that describes everything as a crisis. Frankly its hog wash.

If you look at the actual numbers, with the exception of fuel prices, nothing else is at all time highs when adjusted for inflation. Even the price of gas was higher in 1982 when adjusted. The American public has been quite honestly spoiled with the cheapest consumer prices ever in the history of this country. In Europe they have been paying $5 a liter, not gallon, liter for gas for more than 5 years.

Unemployment numbers just went DOWN. Any economy that has 5% unemployment is doing just fine thank you very much.

I'm actually starting to have serious doubts about mass adoption and it has nothing at all to do with HD DVD losing the war. The more I talk to people the more they just don't seem to care about HD. They are buying 47 inch TVs just because they are big, not because they want HD. Again I think if it doesn't cost much more if anything to upgrade they will do it, other wise it's just not important to most people.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

What's this about Escape from New York?
I think Blu Ray can survive as a laserdisc-type specialty item, beyond that, I just dunno.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Play UK is listing Escape From New York (and Carpenter's The Fog) for August 11. Don't know if it will be region free but I can tell you that when I get it.

If I'm not mistaken the first Dirty Harry movie is released individually in the US as well. If not, you can always import the European release as all Dirty Harry movies are released seperate here.

Yeah, some of the 70mm epics would be like a dream come true. Imagine Cleopatra, The Alamo or It's A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World in 1080p.

I doubt that the studios see physical media as yesterday's news. I can see downloads replacing the rental market to a large degree but not the retail market.

Anyway, I try to enjoy what I can get now and with the recent announcements of movies I'm interested in, I'm quite happy. In fact, for a classic movies fan, I'd say the situation is better than in the early days of DVD (Warner for instance did not release many classics in the first few years of DVD, at least I can still remember the complaints about them).

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

As someone who's just bought his first HDTV (but not a Blu-Ray player just yet) I can tell you why I originally hoped it would fail, echoing what Travis mentioned... because I guess I didn't want to be tempted into re-re-buying all my SD's over again, now on HD. That was the same attitude I encountered from LD fans when I became an early adopter of SD back in 1997. Everyone kind of wanted SD to just go away, but I knew it couldn't.

Now I anticipate buying my first BD player by year's end, if everything is still looking up. Now I probably see myself as wanting Blu-Ray to grow and thrive, and perhaps even replace SD if at all feasible. The problem is, as others have said, most regular folks won't see a significant difference, and they've already got their movie collections on SD. It's not as much of a no-brainer as leaping from VHS to DVD was, and then for the public at large I think the appeal was mainly for the convenience of going from tapes to little shiny discs (like their CDs) -- no rewinding, no clutter.... but with a highly improved picture, to boot.

Possibly the only way for BD to gain prominence is by the studios simply ceasing production of SDs at some point, and also only offering Blu-Ray players (though they'll be backwards compatible with old SDs).
I agree that it's also important to get the player price down to $200 or lower by Christmas this year. Also, to advertise Blu-Ray discs as affordable and an improvement over SD, and a better value. Maybe only start featuring Special Features on BD - only. Make all SDs from this point on barebones. The studios have to do SOMETHING drastic if they intend on making BD succeed.


Yes - and so, if the HT entusiasts aren't all ga-ga over Blu-Ray, how can we ever expect the general public to go for it?

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Well so much for that excuse, at least according to you.





Crawdaddy

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Why by Christmas? I understand that hardware prices should be lowered by why under $200 by this Christmas?

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Because I think they need to have far more stand alone players in homes going into next year. Anything over $200 and Mom and Dad and their 2.5 children aren't even going to consider buying blu-ray. More likely it needs to be under $100.

2009 will be the 4th year that blu-ray is on the market and there aren't even 2 million stand alone players in homes.

This summer Sony is supposed to start a movie download service through their Playstation network. Microsoft already offers a download service, as does Netflix and Itunes. I don't know about your cable provider, but mine is advertising the hell out of movies on demand, many of them in HD.

My feeling is that if there aren't significantly more players in homes going into next year, blu-ray may miss it's chance to be anything more than a footnote in consumer electronics history.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I don't know how you came to that magical price of $200, but as I stated more than a few times, I agree prices need to come down by the end of the year. However, I don't think they need to be at that pricepoint by the end of the year. Movie downloads are a threat, but if we're going to suggest that Blu-ray won't be adopted by the mass market due to buying additional equipment to benefit from it or that people don't understand how to setup their equipment properly than we can say the same thing about people placing a server in their homes for downloads then taking the time to download the movies and play them.

Your argument about this Christmas season is not convincing to say the least. I think the industry has more time than that. I do agree with you that 2009 is a pivotal year for HDM.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I think $200 or under is the magic number because I doubt that most people would pay more than $200 for a regular DVD player. Actually most people probably wouldn't pay more than about $80 for a regular DVD player. But the point is I don't think that most people will buy into blu-ray until it doesn't cost any more than to just replace a dead DVD player.

Eventually I'd like to see the point where all new players are just automatically a blu-ray player, but at $200 or more thats just not going to happen.

As for downloads, my cable company will come in and set up everything I need for movies on demand. I don't need to know a thing other than how to select the movie I want.

I'm only suggesting Christmas because that seems to be the best time to sell lots of players fairly quickly. And there needs to be many more players in homes next year.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

IMO, the industry still has time, but Blu-ray will never achieve the market penetration of SD DVD for reasons I have noted previously in this thread. It's as simple as that which is why the need to have a player cheaper than $200 by this Christmas is questionable to me because this format won't be a total mass market product.

Also, I want to see this HD download in action for a while and I know for a fact that the quality of them will be less than Blu-ray.

Lastly, people forget that the first standalone BR player didn't come out until June of 2006 which is why I think next year, the third year of the format is the pivotal year for it.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I don't expect it to have the market penetration of DVD to be considered a success, but I would hope that a high percentage of people who have bought an HDTV would invest in blu-ray. At this point I'd be happy if they sold 5 million stand alone players.

I downloaded a 2.5 min 1080p trailer for a movie from the playstation network a few days ago. It was encoded in AVC and was hitting a max bitrate of about 30 mbps and averaging around 20 mbps. And it took me about 20 seconds to download it. Which means a blu-ray quality 2 hour feature could be downloaded in less than an hour, and would probably start playing in 1 or 2 min.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Dismissing the economy as a factor is just short-sighted. People's incomes are not rising with fuel, food, and healthcare costs. Fuel affects so many things. Fuel goes up and there's oil in BD's. It takes fuel to get raw materials to the Blu factories and ship the finished goods. There is no doubt that discretionary spending is falling. Some of that is voluntary because individuals are worried about the future. Some of it is because of the shrinking value of the dollars in joe and jane's pockets. This is just undeniable.

I think player prices are a problem. However, I think consumers are more sympathetic to player prices than the bloody disc prices. The disc prices are just a dealbreaker. Another problem is that local rental outlets don't all have BD's yet. I found this out for myself recently when I ventured into the Blockbuster closest to my house last week. They had a few high-priced BD's for sale and none to rent. They said they'd proably get BD's for rent this summer. In my mind, $35 BD's sitting prominently on store shelves is just poison.

BD prices are so high seemingly because DVD prices are too high. The industry thinks they should get a premium for HD but they want too much. They have DVD's occupying the highest plateaus that consumers will pay for videodiscs. You can't just slap $10-$20 dollars on top of that! .....and expect folks to come running, throwing money! Well, you could do so in your wildest dreams but when the sun comes up and reality comes home. There's not much of a market for $35 videodiscs which minimalizes the market for players that play $35 videodiscs.

Blu-ray is a product that was designed for the industry's wishes and desires, not consumer's needs and desires IMO. Player prices reflect this I believe. Just how much have they run up the prices because of BD+, encryption schemes, internet conectivity, and so on.....? Then, there's those $35 videodiscs advertising to the general public, you don't need and can't afford this product........

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Excellent post and you make valid points from the casual CE consumer's point of view and I totally agree with you.

COST and not perceived presentation superiority is going to determine Blu-ray's eventual success beyond being just a niche product which is where it stands right now.

Another thread in this forum talks about the 3"Indie" movies being shown in HD on Sci-fi channel. The OP added, "doesn't compare to Blu-ray" and he's right, but for the wrong reasons.

Casual CE consumers that have HD-DVRs and satellite/cable HD services now have, for their viewing pleasure, outstanding HD presentations of these 3 films without having to wait...and wait...and wait for the BR releases. I have DVR'd these films and I'm perfectly satisfied with the PQ/AQ and for me it's not worth spending $400 for a BD player and another $100 for the BR set when the "Indie" films are finally released. My attitude may not bring many endorsements in this forum but for the average person, this strategy makes a lot of sense and is easy on the budget.
Just as most CE consumers "skipped" Laserdisc in going from VHS to S-DVD, I think most consumers will skip Blu-ray in going from S-DVD to satellite/cable/internet downloads for their HD movie enjoyment and for the same reason - COST.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Excellent post and you make valid points from the casual CE consumer's point of view and I totally agree with you.

COST and not perceived presentation superiority is going to determine Blu-ray's eventual success beyond being just a niche product which is where it stands right now.

Another thread in this forum talks about the 3 "Indie" movies being shown in HD on Sci-fi channel. The OP added, "doesn't compare to Blu-ray" and he's right, but for the wrong reasons.

Casual CE consumers that have HD-DVRs and satellite/cable HD services now have, for their viewing pleasure, outstanding HD presentations of these 3 films without having to wait...and wait...and wait for the BR releases. I have DVR'd these films and I'm perfectly satisfied with the PQ/AQ and for me it's not worth spending $400 for a BD player and another $100 for the BR set when the "Indie" films are finally released. My attitude may not bring many endorsements in this forum but for the average person, this strategy makes a lot of sense and is easy on the budget.
Just as most CE consumers "skipped" Laserdisc in going from VHS to S-DVD, I think most consumers will skip Blu-ray in going from S-DVD to satellite/cable/internet downloads for their HD movie enjoyment and for the same reason - COST.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I agree. many of us here are probably not representative of the average consumer in terms of income and how we choose to spend it.

Well, for me it's the player. I am not willing to spend $300.00 plus on a player that I know will be replaced as soon as [hopefully] more diverse BD products begin to appear on the market. Savvy consumers can always find deals on the discs, and once you buy them, they will theoretically never need to be replaced.


Couldn't agree more, and that is precisely why I do not believe it will ever completely supplant SD DVD.

John

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I don't think anyone is denying that the economy is a factor - it affects the sales of all non-essential products. However, it can't be the determining factor for Blu-Ray's slow sales - just a small part of it. There are other products that are still selling in great numbers even though they've dropped in sales.

When Apple eventually releases their next iPhone/iTouch - it'll be within the same price range of some BR players... but you can bet it'll sell MUCH better than those Blu-Ray players. Global sales of Plasma TVs have increased 53% in Q1 of 2008 compared to Q1 in 2007.

People just choose to spend their money on other toys and don't consider a new HD movie format all that important or compelling. Economy or not, I just can't see this being anything but a niche product - and there's nothing wrong with that. If SA-CD can remain alive after all these years in a time where music (especially in audiophile quality) interest is low, Blu-Ray should be in a much better position.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

It's not that simple nor does the state of the economy play a small part and many people have reduced their discretionary spending despite them buying an iPhone or new display.