More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge - Page 8

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

One other thing about making the switch for me is that I already own most of what is coming out on DVD, and won't be upgrading the mainstream titles that I've seen too many times already. Blu would be for select titles that I'm willing to upgrade (like Blade Runner or Walkabout), or stuff that isn't already on my shelves. Having gone through half a dozen DVD players over the years, I'm in no hurry to spend a lot on a player that likely won't last more than a couple of years if I'm lucky, so lower prices on players and media are certainly factors that would sway me earlier.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

You will see some hardware prices drop soon.

Hdguru.com tells you everything you need to know about HDTV displays, high definition content, high def disc players, high definition reception and reviews on high definition products, blu-ray and

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Blu-ray already passed LD sales some time ago, as in, 2007.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

BD sales hit 10% of SD DVD sales in '08 B4 the hoildays.
That's good, I think.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

10% is huge at this point in BD's life cycle. Also 7 to 9 Million dollars a week on blue ray discs is pretty darn good.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

So, anyone have any opinions on the latest Harris poll concerning Blu-ray adoption which was the subject of a Robin Harris (no relation) blog entry on ZDNet?


That may not even be the worst part. He goes on to discuss the state of Bds "lukewarm" support amongst people who have upgraded or otherwise have the capability.



It's also amusing to see Bill Hunts reactions to this over on the 'Bits.
Am I the only one who thinks Mr Hunt is coming across like someone with their fingers in their ears going "lalalalalalalalalalala I can't hear you lalalalalalala"?
He then goes on to quote predictions from a paid consulting firm (paid for by the BDA?) that by 2012 Blu-ray will have fully 50% of (a rapidly dwindling) pre-recorded optical disc market.
Wow.
And this just days after he posted an update to the Rumor Mill where he tells us that all those great, big titles that he kept saying were in the pipe and just around the corner, have basically been postponed until 2010 or beyond.
In other words, come Q4 of '09, the second Christmas season without any competition, the format is scaling back releases.

Going back to Robin Harris's post, here are some of the recommendations he makes, that Mr Hunt apparently doesn't want to draw attention to

First step to fix a problem is to admit there is a problem.
Unless most people here have no problem with titles continually being pushed back, release slates gutted, content restricted to facilitate a blatant future double dip, and releases bloated with junk to raise MSRPs 3-4x's.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

^ I don't care. It may take longer than I want to see more titles but an eventual transition to HD is inevitable so I'll see those titles at some point. HD downloads are pipe dream for years to come so it may take some time but Blu-ray will continue to grow. If by some miracle HD downloads take off in the next couple of years and discs go the way of the dinosaur, I've got plenty of Blu-ray discs to watch in addition to begrudgingly downloading movies as well.

All the "See I told you that Blu-ray is doomed!!!!!!!!!" people will be happy but I'm not going to worry about something that I have zero control over.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Pretty interesting. I am still not buying tons of Blu-ray content, mostly because of the price. I am sure others are in the same boat.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Wow, those numbers are damning! It's not like we're in a recession or anything.

Oh wait.

We are.

More proof that numbers can be made to support any argument if taken out of context. Maybe if the article compared the drop in BD sales (and intent to purchase) with luxury spending trends across the board (because let's face it, HT is a luxury spending habit), then perhaps we could draw conclusions.

With very few exceptions, overall consumer spending is down, and intent to buy is down. According to CNN, even with the infusion of bailout and stimulus money, Americans are not increasing spending, but rather redirecting most of it to savings.

BD is caught in a much different financial era than DVD was in 1997 (dot.com era, anyone?). The fact that it's even seeing light to moderate success in comparison to DVD at the same stage, given that DVD was revolutionary (moving people away from the VHS/rental model to an ownership model) and BD could be argued is evolutionary, is impressive to me.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I will buy far more Blu-Rays if the price would not exceed $20. I simply cannot justify $30+ for an average title. "Event" Blu-Rays like GONE WITH THE WIND etc. are a different matter, but, as a continual routine, prices need to drop.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

My brother is a purr-fect example of a consumer who's backed out of Blu-ray. It's the prices! He no longer rents or buys BD's because of the prices. He's not the finatic that most of us are.

I'm absolutely, positively, remarkably, furious with Warner Brudders for $85 list prices on Gone With The Wind and I believe the same for Wizard Of Oz. I will never buy these discs even if they street for half the list. They'll stille be double what I'm willing to pay.

I don't want a lock of Clark Gables hair, a bit of straw from the scarecrow, one of Judy Garland's sleeping pills, filmstrips, collectable nonsense, silly little picture books, Digital Copies, BD-Live, wiz-bang-poop Java menus, or huge nonsensical containers that don't fit on my shelves.

I don't want to do anymore firmware upgrades. I can't even explain what they are to my mother. She cannot even understand. I've had to go over to her house several times to start her BD for her because she couldn't understand the disc menu. Fortuneatly, she lives only a kilometer away. I've even had trouble figuring out some of these menus.

The essential thing when creating a consumer product is to price it affordably. The BDA don't want to accept this. They banter about their favourite term, "value", value this, value that, increased value, yada do-dah day. What they don't value is their customers.

I've suspected for quite some time that BD's are cheaper to distribute than DVD's are and certainly not more so! I have only one thing more to convey to the industry:

IT'S THE PRICES STUPID-SHEETS! Go wipe your posteriors with that!

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

HD downloads are here now. Check out the both the playstation and xbox online stores. Almost everything there is available in HD now. Some of the newest releases are only in HD.

My understanding is that the Netflix watch instantly service, which is available on xbox, tivo and many blu-ray players, will soon have HD offerings. Its also supposed to be available on Playstation by the end of the summer.

Honestly from a content providers point of view, downloads are the way to go. You don't have to press any discs, you don't have to print any covers, you don't need a process to put discs in cases, nothing has to be shipped.

This is the direction the industry is going like it or not. My guess is with in 5 years downloads will be the way the majority of people get their entertainment, regardless of what it is.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I decided to sell off all my Blu-rays except for the Kubrick and other specialty titles. I'm sticking with SD because I don't see Blu-ray going anywhere and to my eyes it's getting smaller. The Best Buy, Target and Wal-Marts around my area are stocking less and less new releases each week and their selection is also being cut down.

I'll eat my words if and when I'm wrong but after three years I don't see anything growing.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I have not gone Blu yet because of:

• high priced hardware
• constant need for firmware updates (and still no "resume" feature)
• high priced software
• lack of classics

Although an early adopter for DVD I have yet to be convinced Blu is a lasting and worthy format. Warners' decision to overprice their Blue Chip classics with boxes of junk has left me cold.

In my opinion the format is not dead but isn't likely to be mainstream anytime soon, if ever.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Do you really think people, in five years, are going to have enough bandwidth to download an HD movie in a few minutes? I doubt it. I'm on high speed DSL and the short clips I watch, all of them non-HD, take forever to download or stream over the net. Downloading an HD movie would take hours. I might as well just go to the local shop and rent or buy any film that I want to watch.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

That says it all right there. DSL doesn't typically have the speed required for even SD resolution video.

I download HD video from the Playstation store fairly often. They normally start playing with in 2 min.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Funny, but my local stores are upping their shelf and display space for BDs. My local video store is stocking ever more of them. I've purchased at least half my BDs for under 20$ (I've got about 60 of them) and the bulk of the rest for under 25$. Considering that 25$ today is 20$ in 2000 (and far fewer SD DVD titles were 20$ around here--I paid that for USED DVDs from my local video store), I don't think it's too shocking that we're not at the 5$ bargain bin stage yet.

Add the recession to the mix, and that the numbers are still growing (no one is mentioning contraction in sales), and I don't think BD is doomed. Downloads of the same quality are certainly not "at everyone's fingertips", nor does BD have to be as successful as DVD to be a success in its own right.

BDs are better than DVDs--so I fully expect they will cost me more. It works that way for just about every other consumable item in the economy. Why should it be any different here?

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I certainly don't think the format is doomed but I don't think it will ever be half what SD is/was. I just got done throwing my Blu's on Ebay and I'm really fighting myself over why I should even keep the player.

Several months back I was able to find F13 at all three stores I listed. I went to all three today (including 2 Targets and 3 Wal-Marts) but couldn't find parts two and three. I wanted to pick up a couple other titles but seeing that $29.95 "on sale" price just made me give up.

Again, I'm not saying the format is doomed but I think it's really, really stupid for Best Buy to keep the SD and Blu-rays sitting side by side on release date when theirs a $10-$15 price difference. I think a lot of shoppers will be rolling their eyes.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Exactly. What happens when a blockbuster becomes available at, say, 12 midnight EST on November 7? Everyone tries to download it at the same time and the site stops working, it'll take a day to download, etc. I know that the technology is real but it'll be years before the bugs are worked out enough that it becomes the main way that people get movies.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I see the Doom and Gloom crowd is at it again.

Downloading is not going to be practical for a long time. The "HD" content you download and watch now is compressed much, much, much more than the movie on a BD disc. It is apples and oranges.

Very few people have the bandwidth required to practically watch a HD movie online unless it has been seriously compressed. And if someone is OK with that quality, they really shouldn't be interested in Blu-ray anyway. It would be a waste of money if they are only looking for that level of quality.

Plus, the majority of people want to have something they can hold in their hands. What good is paying for something that disappears when a hard drive fails?

It seems like any time someone does a flawed poll, the download preachers come out.

Look, considering the economic climate, BD sales are doing great. They are averaging well over 10% of the market now.

One last comment on the cost of the BD movies. The movies are about $5 more for BD version of a movie. You should expect to pay more for an HD movie compared to a low res movie. The only complaints I have are when they only offer the Blu-ray version in a box-o-junk and charge too much. But I feel it is completely understandable that the BD movies are slightly more than the low res DVD. Steak cost more than hamburger.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Let's see - there's the "doom and gloom" crowd and the "everything is peachy" crowd. But here's the difference in the two crowds, at least judging by the posts here and in various other forums: The "doom and gloom" crowd, as they are dubbed by the "everything is peachy" crowd, isn't doom and gloom at all - they are not saying the format will die or that they don't like the format. What they are saying is what's real, what's happening. Whereas the "everything is peachy" crowd just throws brickbats at those who are and have been saying that everything is not so peachy, and then toes the party line that sales are great and everything is great and the titles are great and the release pattern is great and just look at all these titles coming in the next couple of months - I looked - for me, a pretty pathetic lot of titles, with a handful that I'd actually want. They conveniently ignore any real numbers or surveys or articles that don't toe the party line.

Blu-Ray, as with laserdisc, isn't going anywhere. It is also not replacing DVD and it has not broken through in the way the studios have hoped - sorry if that pains people. I love Blu-Rays that are top-notch - I'm happy to have my player and the discs that interest me. I'm not happy with the pricing and I'm certainly not happy with the bulk of what's being released. Does that make me part of the "doom and gloom" crowd? No. It makes me (and others here) realists. But nobody from the "doom and gloom" crowd has felt the need to assign clever and cute monikers to deride people who think the format is succeeding wildly.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I'm not particularly a Doom and Gloom person, I just see the trends. When just about every new blu-ray player has an option to watch movies streaming off of Netflix, its pretty obvious whats going on.

Most people today are used to watching HD via cable or Direct TV. They don't really care about the compression, as most of them don't have an HDTV large enough to be able to see it.

I'm not saying that I want blu-ray to fail, or optical media to fail, I'm just being realistic.

I too have to say that I have seriously cut back on buying movies on blu-ray. It really has to be something special to get me to get out the plastic. That means I've bought 4 movies in the last 5 months. There are about 3 or 4 titles that are coming in the next few months that have me excited.

Doug

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I finally went Blu, but have bought a total of four discs. There are others I'm interested in, but the prices are too high for me to bother with right now as these are rebuys I have on DVD already.

I'm also not convinced in the longevity of the media after my ongoing troubles with DVDs deteriorating over time for no apparent reason, so spending more than $15-20 on a disc isn't very appealing unless it is something I know I'l get a lot of use out of, which for the most part is a select handful of titles.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I'm not going to refer to anyone as "doom and gloomers", but the laserdisc/Blu-ray comparison argument is truly tired as well as being inaccurate. LaserDisc never reached the level of market penetration that BD has. Where I live LaserDisc could only be found in specialty record shops. The same cannot be said of Blu-ray. Blu-ray is available in several mass market chain stores. LaserDisc never penetrated into rental chain stores: Blu-ray has.

If a person wants to believe that BD is a failure that is their right but quit comparing BD to LD, because the comparison isn't valid. The argument may have had some validity during the introduction of BD, but it has no validity with BD's present level of penetration into mass market chains, both retail and rental.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I don't get this. If you don't think Blu-ray is doomed (and would soon be replaced by comparable quality VOD/downloads or similar), then why did you sell off nearly all your BDs?? I can understand not buying more (or being more selective going forward) due to pricing, etc., but this doesn't make much sense to me.

_Man_

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

When I said I don't think the format is doomed I meant it wasn't over with or going to crash into the sea. I just don't see it being anywhere near as big as VHS or SD.

I would blame Warner for making me sell my collection and jumping off the ship because of the DVD-R program and the fact that they are having to sell 2-disc SEs for $3 at Big Lots. I'm a fan of classics and I don't think for a second that certain titles will ever see Blu-ray especially when certain titles are being sold for $3. Perhaps I'm wrong but I think these two things say quite a bit. If (fill in the title) isn't going to sell on SD and has to go to DVD-R then there's no way in hell it's going to show up on Blu.

I also own most of my Blu titles on SD. Stuff like THE OMEGA MAN, RESERVOIR DOGS, TCM, SILENCE/LAMBS, JFK and a few others are films I haven't watched on SD for years and the Blu's have been collecting dust for months now as well. I'm just starting to feel that life's too short to have money wasting on a shelf. When I get the urge to watch JFK I can simply rent it instead of paying $30 to keep it on my shelf, unwatched for six years.

It should be said that I've cut out just about ALL of my buying. Six or seven years ago I would buy every classic title and would spend at the very least $150 a week on titles. My "passion" for owning has just come to an end. I reluctantly got a Blu-ray player for Christmas in hopes that my "collecting passion" would come back to me and it did for about a month but it quickly left again. This passion was hard to come by when my top 10 movies from last year aren't in my collection because I couldn't bring myself to pay $30.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I'm not "buying tons of Blu-ray content" either but not because of the price. 99% of movies on Blu-ray do not interest me at all. I would not watch them if they were given to me as gifts.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

To each his own, but I find quite the opposite since I went blu:

• $199 for my player (higher than dvd, sure, but not out of touch with the quality I got. And the same price as my first dvd player in 10-year-ago dollars.)
• I have needed to upgrade only once since I got my player home in December. (And it took less than 10 minutes total to burn the disc and load it in the player.) Not sure what you mean by "no resume" feature.
• Between Amazon, Target and Fry's, I VERY rarely ever pay more than $14.99 for my discs, $19.99 for 2-discers. I just make sure I buy on sale. Between the three of them, there is always a sale.
• Depends on what you call classics: my blus include 2001: A Space Odyssey, The Adventures of Robin Hood, Amadeus, An American in Paris, Bonnie and Clyde, Bullitt, Casablanca, The Day the Earth Stood Still, Dirty Harry, Dog Day Afternoon, Dr. No, The French Connection, From Russia with Love, The Fugitive, GiGi, The Godfather Trilogy, Goldfinger, The Good, the Bad & The Ugly, Halloween, How the West Was Won, Last Year at Marienbad, The Longest Day, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Patton, Pinnochio, The Sand Pebbles, The Searchers, The Seventh Seal, Sleeping Beauty, South Pacific, That's Entertainment Trilogy, The Third Man, Thunderball, Unforgiven, The Untouchables and Wages of Fear. Each one is a classic to me.

I went blu with absolutely no concern about the future or plans to replace all my dvds. I never felt blu was going to equal or surpass dvd's market share. And I could care less if it does or doesn't. I will have these films in top quality for most probably the rest of my life, even if the format eventually dies off.

I do think downloading is the way the future is going. Most people I know simply don't care enough about the visual quality. Hell, they watch movies on their ipods. But as for me, I enjoy the higher quality now, and will for years to come. My blus aren't going anywhere, even if I never add another title to the collection. (Same for the dvds that aren't ever going to be replaced by a blu-ray.) They'll stay in my collection and be enjoyed no matter what the "industry" or any one else does. And that's all that matters to me. My collection is for my enjoyment now. It's not a hedge against the future.

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Great post, John !

Spending maybe 800$ for ca 40 movies and a Blu-Ray player sounds like a pretty good package to me.
You might have to shop around but that is to be expected for many other items, too, not just Blu-Rays.

And you are right: Once a format has enough movies for one to be able to enjoy it there is not much of a problem even if not that many interesting titles get released on a regular basis. You already got the titles you want and can enjoy them in the best quality that is available at home

Re: More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

I guess that is a valid point, but what difference does it make?

Look at LaserDiscs. That format never enjoyed the same kind of mainstream, mass market acceptance as VHS, yet it still prevailed for close to fifteen years. In fact, if it wasn't for LaserDisc, I seriously doubt a company like Criterion would even be around today. LaserDisc is literally where the concept of the "special edition" was born. And, in the end, THOUSANDS of titles ended up being released on LaserDisc, some of which, to this day, have still not made it to DVD.

Personally, I don't care how "big" a format is or ever gets. IMO, Blu-ray technology can provide a clear and demonstrable advantage over all other current home video formats. If personal favorites are released on Blu-ray that truly exploit the superior audio/video capabilities of the format (and the price is right), then Blu-ray will be my first buying choice.

I am not suggesting that everyone dump their DVD library and run out and replace it all on Blu-ray. That seems silly and rather pointless. I do think however that if you can avail yourself of a better technology that allows you to experience your personal favorite films in a new or expanded way, then, why not.

I am currently watching the first four seasons of Lost on BD. Although I am more than familiar with each and every one of these episodes, I have never experienced Lost before in full 1080p splendor. IMO, it is positively thrilling! It is like watching the program for the very first time, all over again. Quite simply, if it wasn't for Blu-ray, I could not have this particular home video experience.

As always, YMMV, but if studios continue to support Blu-ray with exceptional quality releases at reasonable prices, I'm in. And, I will certainly enjoy the ride as long as it lasts...