Great article on all the post format war doomsaying... - Page 11

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I addressed that last time you brought it up. This is starting to go round and round. Buying an HD player doesn't affect portability in any way. Buying HD movies does. DVD had exactly the same barrier to adoption.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

But that was just as true when people moved from VHS to DVD.

I think "portability" is a very small issue. We're not talking about the kind of portability like being able to listen to thousands of MP3 songs anywhere you go on something the size of a deck of cards or smaller.

Most folks who would want that "portability" probably already have a sizeable collection of DVDs and/or have lots of "family friendly" titles. And I guess most of them really would not care to upgrade their entire collection either -- maybe just certain portion of favorite titles. And they can continue to benefit from their DVDs for the purpose of "portability". I mean how many people need HDM quality in their bedroom, on the laptop, in the kids' playroom, etc. anyway? I sure don't. And if they do buy into BD, they will eventually have those extra players in the bedroom, laptop, etc. down the line even as they grow their BD collections going forward.

Yes, the issue might come up for some folks. But it can easily be addressed w/ a well thought out response, and I'd think most would be satisfied enough w/ such responses...

_Man_

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Yes, but even if they were priced the same as a DVD player now - people would still have to needlessly spend money on these players just to be able play BD movies in the car, bedroom, etc. It's even more ridiculous since they probably don't even have an HDTV in those places - so all they really gain is the ability to play the movie, which they would've had all along if they just stuck with the DVD anyways. Nevermind the guilt they'd have to overcome by already replacing players in their homes that are only a few years old.

That's quite a bit to ask of the average consumer.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Yes, but buying a Blu-Ray player is pointless if you aren't going to buy BD movies for it. Why would the average Joe buy a player just to play DVDs? And when they do buy BD movies, they can't be played in any other player around the house, etc.

The difference this time around than the VHS-DVD transition was that VHS was very long in the tooth at that point, DVD is still young right now. And DVD offered so much more over VHS, whereas Blu-Ray doesn't offer much over DVD.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Com'on. How long did those people take to get DVD into their bedroom, their cars, etc. etc.? By the time they're ready for that w/ BD, the hardware prices would likely have come down enough while their existing players would probably also be ready for retirement too. And in the meantime, they still do have their existing DVD collection -- and can still opt to buy certain titles in DVD too just like I used to buy certain kids titles on VHS for a few years after I got into DVD (and stopped partly because I didn't want to try to hunt down yet another new VCR when the last one died ).

BTW, if people are *that* serious about "portability", they must be using them quite a bit and will wear them out fast enough, IMHO. Certainly, at least some of their players will not still be working great another 4-5 years from now (assuming they are relatively new) me thinks. Do you have kids? My kids wore out a couple of Toshibas after 2-3 years each (and plainly broke a Philips w/ flimpsy disc tray after ~3 years), and it's not like that's the only thing they ever do either.

Players aren't built to last forever you know...

_Man_

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

By the time these people are ready to replace the DVD players in their bedroom, car, etc - will Blu-Ray be relegated to niche status at that point? Companies will be willing to dump money into a format for only so long when the current format is still generating lots of revenue for them. At some point they'll have to give up. When that time is, noone really knows right now.

In the meantime people are buying 2nd, 3rd, 4th players, etc.

I don't think I know anyone who had their DVD players die on them - and many of them have kids. It obviously happens, but how often? And even today, when they die - people will go and buy a $40 player to replace it. How long will it take for Blu-Ray players to drop down to $40?

I don't mean to sound like a doom-and-gloom kinda guy. I learned a while ago that you have to be realistic and place yourself in the average consumers shoes. The transition is a tough sell this time around - especially when the current format is the biggest video format of all time and is only 10 years old, and only 3 or 4 years old for most people. The studios are still happy with the revenue from DVD sales - even if it has dropped in the last few years. They aren't desperate to drop the DVD format - and by hanging on to DVD, they can't fully commit to Blu-Ray.

I personally don't know anyone (who's isn't a home theatre enthusiast) who feels the need to move to a new format. DVD is still new to them and they're extremely happy with it in all regards and are committed to the format - even though they own HDTVs.

I expect the format to remain a niche, but I'm ok with it - and so are some on this forum. We're all just speculating anyways - and it's all part of the healthy discussions.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

They were perfectly happy with doing it with DVD for 3-4 years, and right now Blu-ray's been out less than 2 years.
Second, maybe, and that's only a minority of people who want Bonus View or BD-Live features. I've not heard of any group of people buying 3rd or 4th and so on players.
Huh? Where are you getting this "3 or 4 years old" from? It's pretty well established that DVD was a household item by 2001 or so.
[/quote]I personally don't know anyone (who's isn't a home theatre enthusiast) who feels the need to move to a new format. DVD is still new to them and they're extremely happy with it in all regards and are committed to the format - even though they own HDTVs.[/quote]And most of us were saying the exact same thing in 1998 and 1999 about DVD.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

But when a player dies, they can replace the *main* one -- where the quality matters more -- w/ Blu-ray and switch that one to replace the old dead one, no? No, they wouldn't replace one-for-one for the bedroom or kids playroom or most anywhere else. But really, I can't think of too many people w/ several different actively used DVD players around the house, the car, etc. who would seriously have a problem w/ upgrading their *main* one to something better for ~$400 right now (or less in the future).

I mean who are these average folk you're talking about w/ so many $40 players anyway?

If I wasn't gonna go Blu yet and wanted to replace a player, I still wouldn't just be buying a $40 DVD player anyway. My kid broke my Philips DVD/SACD player a year and change ago (spent ~$400 back in 2003), and I replaced it w/ a Denon 2910 (for ~$400). Sure, I don't expect everyone to spend that much on their main DVD player right now, but $40(??) when they've got so many different other actively used players lying around (and probably a pretty sizeable collection of DVDs)??

Well, I can see maybe *some* of them resisting the lure of better quality from BD in that situation, but I really can't fathom how that makes too much sense to me. And if they really don't have much of a DVD collection anyway, well, then, does it really matter *that* much if they take forever (or never) adopt BD?


I agree w/ you to an extent, and I really don't expect BD to be as big a hit as some. But it doesn't need to completely replace DVD to still be successful though.

I'm not sure how happy or unhappy the studios are w/ DVD sales, but reading between the lines, seeing the DVD pricing trend, etc., I'd say they are *ok* w/ DVD sales, but not exactly all that happy. If not, they wouldn't have bothered w/ HDM. And I suspect they've already gone a bit too far w/ HDM now to pull back completely. I think the HDM launch was actually premature. They should've waited a bit more and *not* come out w/ a format war. I think the premature launch actually sped up the decline the DVD sales and needlessly cost them a bit of DVD revenues though the payoffs from Sony and Toshiba probably helped offset that.

Yeah, BD can still definitely turn into a LD-like niche depending on exactly what the studios and CE companies do going forward. And yeah, they still have a whole lot of work to do to promote to the masses, etc. But too much doomsaying will only work against that push and help bring the worst outcome.


There is never a real *need* for any of this. Nobody really needed DVD either. We're talking about entertainment, not real needs. And that's about what people enjoy and whether they're willing to pay a certain amount of $$$ for the entertainment. During the Great Depression, people still flocked to the theaters for that entertainment. During the last near recession following the nasty .com crash, box office revenues actually went up a lot, not down. That was the period when we started seeing lots of Hollywood blockbuster flicks raking it in big time and w/ lots of recordbreaking (and near recordbreaking) box office takes.

Now, I'm not saying the same will happen for BD despite our current economic situation, *but* I do think a lot of the doomsaying are just being overly cynical and/or are just coming from people w/ axes to grind.


Only time will tell whether BD can win a significant portion of them over. I know I will not be running around crying "the sky is falling" though. And since I do lend out movies to friends and family (and it's me who buys the player for my mother), well, you can be sure they'll need a BD player at some point if they want to keep borrow movies from me. ;D

And really, just as I can't underestimate people's way of spending big $$$ on luxury cars and such, I don't want to underestimate people's choice of entertainment and appreciation for better quality in home video. No, again, I'm not suggesting things will actually come to pass. But I also don't think it's in our best interest (as enthusiasts) to be doomsayers -- and no, I'm actually not as big of an enthusiasts as many others here since I only finally jumped in back in late December.


True that. We're all -- well, most of us anyway -- just basically shooting the breeze here. ;D I don't mind BD staying niche to an extent. I really don't want to see LD-like pricing (and slowness in releases). I'm fine w/ the current trend though (other than Fox/MGM's pricing and lack of extras) and expect the studios to pick things up some in terms of releases (and moderate reductions in prices) in the not-too-distant-future...

_Man_

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Perhaps here lies one point. I´m not sure, that do all Blu-ray (or just "high definition")-supporters yell in the forums that "Blu Ray is going to be massively successful!". Many are trying to point out, that if we "unite" for the common cause and rally behind the Blu-ray in some ways (this doesn´t mean that you have to buy those overpriced Fox-titles suddenly or something), it´ll "make it" and perhaps after XX years it´ll replace DVD. This all can happen in time. It just takes certain amount of time.

People are not stupid. At this point it´s far too early to declare that "Blu Ray is going to be massively successful!", BUT it´s also damn sure, that it´s too early to "doom" the whole format.

There are people in the forums (some probably just a bitter HD DVD-supporters, sadly) that like to spread this "doomsday"-talk and some try to act like they´re somehow more knowledgeable than most of us here. It´s that type of talk (calling other "naive" or something) that irritates people, that certain "tone".

Sure, that "tone" goes in both ways and all that, but do some of these people really believe that their "doomsday"-talk will be popular in the *"high definition*-forums? After all, most of us post here because we like "high definition", buy the Blu-ray-releases and enjoy the 1080p-quality/lossless audio. And we do it *now*, every day. It´s quite sad, if the "format war" was the main reason why people bothered to post here in the first place (this seems to be the case with some people, since several "known members" don´t post here anymore after the war ended)...

I can again post my tired, old argument: We now have Blu-ray. You´re "in" or "out". Doomsday-talk won´t change anything. There are no "secret facts" that us Blu-ray/high definition-supporters ignore or sweep under the carpet. We know the risks. Like people *should have* known the risks during the war.

But, we survived the format war and all the bitter talk. So we´re not going to "stop" now. Doomsday-talk? Bring it on! "King Kong ain't got S**T on me!"

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I recommend a different approach. If an argument is old and tired, drop it.

You can't argue a doomsayer into becoming a cheerleader for HDM. People have their points of view, and only time will tell whose predictions will come to pass.

Personally I'd rather spend my energy viewing the latest HDM output and discussing what I do or don't like about it. To me, at least, that seems like a better use for an enthusiast's time.

M.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

(post removed and moved by Jari K)

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

So, Jari, let me get this straight.

Now that there's been no "doomsday talk" in this thread for a day or two, you really felt the need to import some from elsewhere?

Who's really fanning the flames here?

M.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Do we have some kind of personal thing here?

I personally find it very interesting, if a big player like MS is saying that downloading will "take over" quite soon (sooner that we think, based on the source). So now we can´t post links to those type of news?

I´ll move the post then..

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

probably the main reason Sony continues to be bullish on the future of Bd, despite overwhelming consumer apathy after 2 years towards HDMs in general, is that the main Bd player now (and likely to be in the future) is also Sonys covert movie download system. If they can make the PS3 as ubiquitous as a cell phone or a PC, then they are well on their way to owning the future dowload experience. That is the only way they can possibly be justifying the continued astronomical costs of blu-ray in the face of such indifference. That's why they couldn't afford to lose the format war- while on the other hand MS would have liked for Toshiba to win it. There is a distinction there.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I do think it would be very wise for the studios to include a barebones, feature-only DVD in every Blu-ray package. That way you have the "portability" without either having to buy (or already have) a separate DVD copy, or the hassles associated with combo discs. Personally, I think Bandai Visual's "single-inventory" solution for Wings of Honneamise was elegant (you couldn't buy the DVD at all without purchasing a BD or HD-DVD), but "the masses" might feel put upon by having the high definition version "forced upon them" at the necessary higher price point. On the other hand, since DVD replication costs are pennies per unit, there is no strong objection I can see to taking the BD package, which already has MSRP $5-10 higher than the DVD (and less likelihood of being discounted downstream), & putting in a "bonus" DVD. In this way, of course, HD starts to look from a certain perspective like a value-added feature, which could be a good thing.


As for the PS3 being a "covert movie download system", I really don't think that's Sony's model. I have observed before that Sony was not going to give up on BD because they had no incentive to. Even if they dropped BD as a movie format, they would still have to keep pressing discs & building drives for the PS3 and for the disc-based High Definition "Professional Disc" recorders they are selling to TV stations & others. Toshiba had no comparable secondary markets for HD-DVD, so they could drop it at any time.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

No, what we have is reading comprehension.

You write a lengthy post about how pointless it is to air a lot of doomsday talk in a forum devoted to HDM -- a notion with which I basically agree.

Not 20 minutes later, you're the one supplying the doomsday talk, under the guise of reporting the news.

You talk about "bitter HD DVD-supporters" who can't seem to let it drop. Well, the same could be said for certain Blu supporters. Some people seem to be more interested in the battle itself than in the stakes. (I always get nervous when someone says, "Bring it on." And remember what happened to the guy who said, "King Kong ain't got S**T on me!" )

I never said any such thing. I just find it very interesting that, for a guy who says he wants to move beyond the format war, you somehow always find a way to remind us of it.

M.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

...dbl post

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

"Supplying the doomsday talk" by linking a relatively interesting bit from MS saying that "downloading is the future"? Alright..

Well, I moved that post, so no harm done. This thread is now saved..


As you probably noticed, I also added to my post (to the part that you´re quoting). It´s called humor.

Point was, that this "doomsday"-talk doesn´t change anything. Only time will tell.


And I find it interesting that from the all recent posts and threads, you chose me to your target.. I´m at your side!

Sure, you can accuse me of being too "frank" or a person that wants to respond to the anti-BD talk (sometimes to the issues that are best to leave alone - or ignore them), but you can take this to the bank: I really want that this bitter debate/talk will be over soon. But what can I say, "just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in"..

Yes, we ALL should look in the mirror every once in a while. Including me.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Yes, I agree it'd be a good idea if the studios provide some means to include a barebones, movie-only DVD for their BD titles -- I've mentioned that on several other occasions elsewhere. That would certainly help the "portability" (or rather 100% compatibility) issue.

Failing a free inclusion of barebones DVD, I think they should at least try what Disney's doing w/ some of their recent releases. Provide an upgrade rebate/coupon that effectively slashes the cost of owning both formats down to something palatable for those who really need it. I don't think paying say $5 more to have both formats should be too much a problem provided it's a premium option we get, not something forced upon every BD buyer (like w/ the HDD combo disc).

As for ending the doomsaying talk, Jari, I'd agree w/ Michael that it's probably not wise to import more such "news" here -- and certainly, it made me wince some when you more or less baited for some action regardless of the smiley. The posting of such "news" was how this thread got started, and I'm not sure it's helped anyone at all. Certainly, I feel bad and foolish for being so aggressive w/ my little spat w/ Professor Echo a couple days ago...

_Man_

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Yea, yea, downloads are the future. Well, Microsoft WOULD think that, wouldnt they? From where i sit, in Tulsa Oklahoma a good download system, for movies, and not just in high def, is a damn long way away. I will be happy with DSL that doesnt lock up, and COX cable was only good at streaming viruses for the few months i had it. I am glad they say it will be sooner, and not later. Is that like, in the next 100 years, and not 200?
True music downloads are big! But i cant take my TV out of the house. I also know most people MY age dont want to watch TV on a 2 inch screen. Until the people that like to own physical media die of old age, i dont see it going away.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I can already watch full NTSC resolution films streaming on Netflix. It takes all of about 15 seconds of buffering for the feature to start. Less time than it takes to power up my HD DVD or Blu-ray players.

My cable bandwidth frequently exceeds 1.5 mbps. So downloading lets say a 15 gig movie file would probably only take a few hours. Something that could be done over night.

I don't see physical media going away either, but I can clearly see downloads replacing the rental market.

Doug

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I can make a roundtrip to the nearest Blockbuster for a rental in 15 minutes or the nearest Best Buy for a purchase in 30 minutes. It's going to have to be a lot faster than overnight for a download to be more popular than instant gratification.

And actually, 1.5mbps is megabits, not megabytes, so your calculations are off by a factor of 8. A 15 gig movie is going to take roughly 80,000 seconds, or 22 hours, not 3 hours.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I said it frequently exceeds 1.5 mbps. 1.5 is the low end of what I get.

I just downloaded an image file of a 4 gig DVD (a fan film perfectly legal, and it was actually a little over 4 gigs) and it took me about 18 min. So downloading a 15 gig file would be just a little over an hour, assuming the download speed stays at that level.

And a service could easily have a cue where films would download say while you are at work, ready to watch when you get home.

Doug

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I download movies, both SD & HD, from iTunes using Apple TV. It works very well. The sound (on HD) is usually 5.1 and more than adequate, although it would not satisfy anyone demanding 7.1 or true audiophiles. The picture is perhaps a bit better than satellite HD, but is not of the quality of Blu-Ray.

My DSL service is not particularly—even on the best days fast (and I don’t have the latest, fastest wireless router), so a HD movie download takes a while (usually 12–20 hours), but as the download happens in the background, I don’t find this disturbing. iTunes only allows 24 hours to watch the movie once you start watching and this may be an unacceptable limitation to some. You also only have 30 days from the time the download takes place to watch the movie—but I expect that would not bother very many.

Rental prices range from $2.99 for an older SD movie to $4.99 for a newer HD movie—reasonably competitive with B&M stores. Given that the main option here is buying ripped off, poor quality SD DVDs and renting a very small selection of SD DVDs (no HD available at all), downloading (even with its limitations works very well for me). The main drawback is the limited selection (especially HD) in the iTunes library. I’d like to see some older, classic movies in HD made available, as well as a few more foreign and independent films, but at least a good number of these are available in SD on TCM and IFC.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

And just as I complain about my download time, downloads on two HD movies that I began last night were done this morning: about 7 hours for the two (and possibly less as who knows when the downloads finished). This might be too long for some, but very adequate for me.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Doug, Lew, can you watch these movies on your TV? Or do you have to sit in front of the computer? I have a real nice computer screen myself, but it doesnt compare to either TV i have.
The only thing i have watched on here is trailers from Apple, or the occasional YouTube video, i have had lag time with both. If the file is to big. But of course i am watching it as it happens. I have seen that NetFlix would let me "watch now" a few items in my Q. I just have no interest in watching a movie on my computer.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Then you're one of the lucky ones. Most people don't have a connection with a 1.5 mbps low end. They're lucky if they get that as a high end, even when the connection is advertised as 2 mbps.


Lew, what's the resolution and bitrate on those?

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

720P Joe—I have no idea as to the bitrate—unless that is you are referencing my download rate—that is, in theory 1 mps but Telmex in my location often delivers far less. Not a complaint as I could pay for a higher service—and I’m just pleased to be able for my wife and I to both be using the Internet, talk on a local phone, talk on a Vonage phone and download a HD movie from iTunes all at the same time,

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

You've just highlighted why enthusiasts are a long way from accepting downloads as an alternative--and at the same time, providing the perfect analogy to music downloads for the masses.

Enthusiasts will NEVER settle for 720p and basic 5.1 lossy audio as the best available option. And even at your current download rates (much better than the vast majority has at its disposal, even with high-speed), 1080p with LOSSLESS audio would take A LOT longer to download.

On the flipside, just as 128kbps mp3s from iTunes more than satisfies "the masses", the kind of of "HD LITE" you describe will seem more than amply fine.

Essentially the debate isn't whether downloads will supplant HDM on optical disc (in the short to medium term--the long suggests it will, but when is an open question) but rather whether the dominant form of HD content will be "FULL HD" (including lossless audio) or "HD LITE". Sadly, I expect the latter (if music is any guide). But I don't have to like it.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Short answer: Yes!

Longer answer:

Apple TV is just a special purpose computer with a hard drive and network capabilities, an Ethernet port, component outputs, an HDMI output and an optical audio output. Typical connections to your TV and receiver and you are good to go. You need your computer for the initial setup (including iTunes if you don’t have an account), but after that you can use iTunes on your computer to download music, movies, podcasts or whatever to your computer and then (assuming that you don’t want to watch the movies on your computer) you can choose to sync your iTunes library with Apple TV (lots of sync options). Then you can watch movies on TV. Also you can have iTunes gobble up a movie or TV show (or music or pictures) that reside on your computer HD and then sync from iTunes to Apple TV (so far, I’ve not found a one step process for non-iTunes material, although one may exist).

Also the latest Apple TV software allows (after the initial setup) you to download movies, music and so forth directly from iTunes to Apple TV.

If you have a wireless router, you won’t need to physically connect Apple TV to your computer or network, otherwise you will have to connect via an Ethernet cable.

The disadvantages of using the computer to download are that you can’t download HD movies and also you need first to download and then sync. The advantages are that for non-HD material, iTunes is far easier to use in searches and looking at lists of items than the displays on Apple TV.

You can’t purchase movies using Apple TV (you have to use iTunes directly for that), you can only rent. But it is nice to be able to just use one step.

You can also choose to keep items in your iTunes library on your computer hard drive, and only sync some to Apple TV (and you can change that all the time).