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Great article on all the post format war doomsaying... - Page 9

post #241 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by drobbins
Weren't movies made in the 60s, 70s , & 80s, filmed on tape and not digitally?



Are you joking? (or even trolling..)
post #242 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Kittel
In terms of support for older films (particularly when one eliminates Warner titles for the purpose of looking at the releases from other studios) I am underwhelmed.

You´ve have a point there.
post #243 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Man-Fai, I've already said that I eagerly buy what appeals to me, and ignore the vast majority that don't ( trying not to encourage bad title releasing habits). Further more, I've defended far more releases from the irrational ire of the cheerleaders and tier-istas than I have disparaged. Great suffering chowder Man, what more am I supposed to do? As far as the Bd variety goes- break those release down by decade. Bd exclusive studios rarely breeched a 1997-200x barrier.
On the optimism of economies of scale coming to 'rise all ships with the tide'- there are just a couple problems with that. 1) Sony (and the other Bd CEMs) want to keep prices higher for a while. They've been entirely candid in this respect at least. By most accounts Warner got a sweetheart deal which means it probably cost Sony and the BDA dearly...but that was far more palatable than continuing to bleed in hardware subsidies (exacerbated by being forced to compete with Toshiba and it's high value, low cost players) AND huge software subsidies (just who WAS paying for the twice monthly BOGOs all last year?)
2) I think its a cozy dream to expect prices to recede simply because this is 'computer/tech' related. Fuel(for transporting materials and stock) and petroleum (for plastics) are costs that are going to be going up more than they ever come down. Inflation will remain steady and robust, the 'cheap' chinese mfgrs are being frozen out, the dollar and it's import purchasing power is in serious decline, and just about everyone else here realizes there is little interest, no desire, (and as I've seen personally- some outright hostility) towards an 'elite' form of dvd sold at any kind of premium at this point . Where and when on earth do you see these economies of scale naturally occuring?
post #244 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Great link, BTW, Walter! Thanks.


Cees
post #245 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jari K


Are you joking? (or even trolling..)

Trolling! Rather harsh accusation. Chill out I am just ignorant. There has been so much hype, personal "facts" on both formats, I haven't read any more than a few threads on HDM & I am definitely not an expert on film making.

I know digital recording is a recent event for home use, but I don't know when the studios started using it. I would presume they did before the massas did. All the old movies that I have seen on VHS and even on DVD, have not impressed me with the film quality compared to newer movies. Example would be El Cid vs I Robot, Star Wars 4 vs Star Wars 3.

My current DVD player has started acting up lately and if I need to replace it, that would be the reason I get a bluray player. Thanks for the info Doug & Paul
post #246 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Actually, the 70's through 90's saw some use of video in feature film production. Mostly as an "instant replay" of what was just shot. In 1987 there was the flick "Julia and Julia" which I think was shot on tape and transferred to video. If not, it was some Kathleen Turner flick around the same time. 200 Motels by Zappa (1971) was shot on tape as well.

Incidently, the first major proponent of video/film marriage was Jerry Lewis who was the first to use it extensively. He also, around the same time, launched a franchise of cinemas that was the first movie theaters to use pancake loop projectors, for better or for worse.
post #247 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by drobbins
Rather harsh accusation. Chill out I am just ignorant.

Okay, sorry about that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by drobbins
I know digital recording is a recent event for home use, but I don't know when the studios started using it.

Well, you could say that the majority of the motion pictures are shot in film stock ( Film stock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) - even today, but of course "High-definition video" ( High-definition video - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) is gaining more ground all the time. The time when "HD video" will "replace" film stock altogether (in motion pictures) is still rather far away. Film stock has still many advantages in quality wise.

Movies "made in the 60s, 70s , & 80s" (like you said) are almost solely shot in film stock (at least in 16 mm) with film cameras, since "High-definition video" didn´t even exist back then. "Video" back then was a totally different thing than "High-definition video" now. VHS was launched in September 1976.. People often confuse these terms (e.g. "DVD" is a totally different thing than "DV-format", etc).

So if the film is originally shot in film stock or "High-definition video", they´ll definitely benefit from Blu-ray and 1080 resolution (compared to SD DVD, VHS, LD or any other "home video" format before Blu-ray). So don´t worry about that. Go and get that Blu-ray-player (make sure that it´s profile 1.1, though - and 2.0 probably too).

Of course, plenty is depending on the SOURCE MATERIAL also, so "Blu-ray" alone doesn´t make the film look suddenly "perfect". Roughly like this, I guess:
a) Find the best source materials that you can find (e.g. original film negatives, etc). Several sources might be needed.
b) Clean those actual film negatives carefully.
c) Duplicate those film negatives into digital form (I guess 2k or 4k?).
d) Clean, fix, remaster and restore those materials via computer.
e) Create brand new digital master (now fully "restored")
f) From that new digital master, you can now release the film in SD DVD-format, Blu-ray-format, etc.

Point is, that Blu-ray is just one "format" (other obvious one is SD DVD) from the digital master (that usually has even higher resolution than 1080p).

(hope this is not too confusing, it´s quite late at the moment when I write this..)
post #248 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by drobbins
Trolling! Rather harsh accusation. Chill out I am just ignorant.
I wouldn't worry about it. There are many people who have asked the same question.
post #249 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
I always thought that HDM would be the more expensive brother to SD DVD with a market penetration greater than LD, but well short of SD DVD or VHS. Also, that BR and SD DVD will co-exist for a long time.
Crawdaddy
I used to think the same- that dvd would see a natural attrition to an HD format going forward in an HD display centric landscape. I now realize several things.
1) many (most?) 'HD' display owners own them for form (space, profile- size,style, etc) rather than function (higher res, higher quality picture).
2) you have to go back and view LD in the context of it's heyday. It was a very robust niche, and actually not priced at the substantial premium people think today. $24.99-$39.99 was not a huge premium over $19.99-$29.99 VHS pre-records. Even moreso since there was a huge form differentiation between the two. VHS was king and primarily a rental medium because the tech was foremost purchased for something else- timeshifting. It was convienent to then subsist on a diet of tapes for all your TV entertainment needs. It is not a coincidence that recordability was there for a part of DVDs asscention. Just as its not a coincidence that DVRs have more interest and enthusiasm amongst the general consumer than HD optical disc players do.
3) DVD is a more than sufficent an 'HT' delivery medium for the overwhelming majority of Joe-Six HTs. Simple as that. The studios want some kind of premium priced media to SUPPLEMENT Dvd revenue. There is no point in trying to replace it if margins ultimately are only interchanged. I honestly think we are looking at a better than DVHS/Worse than LD sales generator here. Bd is the fix for a problem only a few people, like us here, have. The only way to fix that is to purposefully degrade the eqiuvilent sd release in the future. Problem with doing that is they may convince people to abandon optical discs altogether...if they feel they are being extorted. In that case the alternative-a DVR+ sat sub would easily suffice.
post #250 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul_Scott
I used to think the same- that dvd would see a natural attrition to an HD format going forward in an HD display centric landscape. I now realize several things.
1) many (most?) 'HD' display owners own them for form (space, profile- size,style, etc) rather than function (higher res, higher quality picture).
2) you have to go back and view LD in the context of it's heyday. It was a very robust niche, and actually not priced at the substantial premium people think today. $24.99-$39.99 was not a huge premium over $19.99-$29.99 VHS pre-records. Even moreso since there was a huge form differentiation between the two. VHS was king and primarily a rental medium because the tech was foremost purchased for something else- timeshifting. It was convienent to then subsist on a diet of tapes for all your TV entertainment needs. It is not a coincidence that recordability was there for a part of DVDs asscention. Just as its not a coincidence that DVRs have more interest and enthusiasm amongst the general consumer than HD optical disc players do.
3) DVD is a more than sufficent an 'HT' delivery medium for the overwhelming majority of Joe-Six HTs. Simple as that. The studios want some kind of premium priced media to SUPPLEMENT Dvd revenue. There is no point in trying to replace it if margins ultimately are only interchanged. I honestly think we are looking at a better than DVHS/Worse than LD sales generator here. Bd is the fix for a problem only a few people, like us here, have. The only way to fix that is to purposefully degrade the eqiuvilent sd release in the future. Problem with doing that is they may convince people to abandon optical discs altogether...if they feel they are being extorted. In that case the alternative-a DVR+ sat sub would easily suffice.
Then we disagree on this issue and we'll see how everything plays out in the next several years.




Crawdaddy
post #251 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul_Scott
Man-Fai, I've already said that I eagerly buy what appeals to me, and ignore the vast majority that don't ( trying not to encourage bad title releasing habits). Further more, I've defended far more releases from the irrational ire of the cheerleaders and tier-istas than I have disparaged. Great suffering chowder Man, what more am I supposed to do?

Duely noted though I guess I should've also said that in my last reply (about your purchases).

I should've probably also made it more clear that I wasn't just responding to you (much like I said to Doug), but to this doomsaying trend in general -- and hence why I included "and your brethren". My apologies for sounding like I might've only been annoyed at you (and not the larger group of doomsayers). Still, I do think you're contributing to that trend nonetheless as you still continue to slant this whole thing in that direction.

Quote:
On the optimism of economies of scale coming to 'rise all ships with the tide'- there are just a couple problems with that. 1) Sony (and the other Bd CEMs) want to keep prices higher for a while. They've been entirely candid in this respect at least. By most accounts Warner got a sweetheart deal which means it probably cost Sony and the BDA dearly...but that was far more palatable than continuing to bleed in hardware subsidies (exacerbated by being forced to compete with Toshiba and it's high value, low cost players) AND huge software subsidies (just who WAS paying for the twice monthly BOGOs all last year?)
2) I think its a cozy dream to expect prices to recede simply because this is 'computer/tech' related. Fuel(for transporting materials and stock) and petroleum (for plastics) are costs that are going to be going up more than they ever come down. Inflation will remain steady and robust, the 'cheap' chinese mfgrs are being frozen out, the dollar and it's import purchasing power is in serious decline, and just about everyone else here realizes there is little interest, no desire, (and as I've seen personally- some outright hostility) towards an 'elite' form of dvd sold at any kind of premium at this point . Where and when on earth do you see these economies of scale naturally occuring?

And how does any of this let DVD (or HD DVD) off its hook (other than the part about the studios wanting to make some $$$ they no longer can w/ DVD)??

If what you suggest is true, then DVD itself is doomed too. How long can the studios and retailers sustain the current trend of DVD pricing if that's the case?? Indeed, you should then believe that VOD/download is gonna win it all sooner than we think.

BTW, standard BD packaging seems to take up less space (and maybe even weigh a bit less) than DVD. The studios will save a few bucks w/ those other operating costs over DVD in that regard.

_Man_
post #252 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I think it is somewhat disingenuous to think that BD hardware or software will substantially decrease in price at any time. One of the motivating factors behind the creation of HD hard disc formats was not just some altruistic attempt to produce better quality, but to make DVD profitable once again.

Prices have gotten so low on SD DVD players and discs that the market has bottomed out. Both manufacturers and retailers are gambling on HD technology to pump more profits back into a dying industry. Their goal is to re-educate the masses that better quality comes at a higher price, not lower prices to SD levels and get themselves into the same economic mess they are in right now. They realized with SD that volume is not going to satiate their bottom line so the upfront cost must be higher.

This will prove to be the biggest hurdle they have to overcome. Prices are only going to go so low on BD and people will have to buy into the idea that they are getting more for their money than SD. I think it's too little too late to try and re-train buying habits that have become so ingrained. And how to thwart the apathy many feel over what they see as just outright extortion to once more trade up to a technology that may be surpassed in another month.

As I've posted in this forum before: Follow the money. If prices don't come down to the levels of SD then I believe the format is doomed. Yet right now I just don't see any manufacturer or retailer willing to substantially lower prices and run the risk of heading down that SD path again. Therein lies what's known as a Mexican standoff. So what's the answer?
post #253 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Echo
I think it is somewhat disingenuous to think that BD hardware or software will substantially decrease in price at any time. One of the motivating factors behind the creation of HD hard disc formats was not just some altruistic attempt to produce better quality, but to make DVD profitable once again.

Prices have gotten so low on SD DVD players and discs that the market has bottomed out. Both manufacturers and retailers are gambling on HD technology to pump more profits back into a dying industry. Their goal is to re-educate the masses that better quality comes at a higher price, not lower prices to SD levels and get themselves into the same economic mess they are in right now. They realized with SD that volume is not going to satiate their bottom line so the upfront cost must be higher.

This will prove to be the biggest hurdle they have to overcome. Prices are only going to go so low on BD and people will have to buy into the idea that they are getting more for their money than SD. I think it's too little too late to try and re-train buying habits that have become so ingrained. And how to thwart the apathy many feel over what they see as just outright extortion to once more trade up to a technology that may be surpassed in another month.

As I've posted in this forum before: Follow the money. If prices don't come down to the levels of SD then I believe the format is doomed. Yet right now I just don't see any manufacturer or retailer willing to substantially lower prices and run the risk of heading down that SD path again. Therein lies what's known as a Mexican standoff. So what's the answer?
I don't understand your choice of words such as "disingenuous"? Prices for BD will come down for hardware and software, but to expect them to be at the levels of SD DVD in the near future is not realistic and is unfair to this new video format.





Crawdaddy
post #254 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aragorn the Elfstone
(I mean, for god's sake, there's alot of people who watch SD channels stretched horizontally and they actually think they're watching Hi-Def).

I'm watching SD stretched and zoomed to avoid burn-in on my plasma!

Well, actually the rest of the family insists on watching SD. I'd rather seek out a real HD channel to watch.

Kez
post #255 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Kittel
Strictly in terms of genres and film types I believe that Bd does a good job of representing a wide variety of films. In terms of support for older films (particularly when one eliminates Warner titles for the purpose of looking at the releases from other studios) I am underwhelmed. I realize that it takes years for older films to come out but I think Bd's track record to date is poor in this area.

Blu-ray breakout by decade / era

1957 - 1969 - 10 / 465 - 2.15% - 8 WB, 1 CTS, 1 MGM
1970 - 1979 - 15 / 465 - 3.22% - 9 WB, 2 Anchor Bay/Starz, 2 MGM, 2 CTS
1980 - 1989 - 28 / 465 - 6.02%
1990 - 1999 - 55 / 465 - 11.83%
2000 - 2008 - 316 / 465 - 67.96%
Unknown - Musical / Special Interest mostly - 41 / 465 - 8.82 %

This is based on title information from Download the most complete DVD list on the Web

- Walter.


This isn't that surprising when you consider that Warner probably owns more films from the 30 to the 60s that just about any other studio.

Doug
post #256 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

True enough Doug, but even the period from 1970 to 1999 only represents 21% of available titles.

I believe/guess that most consumers are looking for new titles vs. double dipping so it makes financial sense to focus on new releases; but I still hope that the studios can throw us fans of older cinema a bone from time to time.

- Walter.
post #257 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
I don't understand your choice of words such as "disingenuous"? Prices for BD will come down for hardware and software, but to expect them to be at the levels of SD DVD in the near future is not realistic and is unfair to this new video format.Crawdaddy


By disingenuous I meant giving a false impression of the current state of accepting or rejecting BD as a viable replacement/alternative to SD, the ostensible topic of this thread. Perhaps NAIVE would have been a better term as I didn't mean to imply that anyone was being intentionally misleading, just perhaps not always seeing the forest for the trees.

My point is that BD price levels will never substantially decrease as one of the primary reasons for developing and marketing the product is to offset losses from SD. To think that BD will ever come down in price to the points we've seen with SD is being very unrealistic in my estimation.

What incentive do these companies have for repeating the same mistakes they made with SD? I think it's possible that HD/BD has been a last ditch effort to revive profits in a software industry that is slowly fading out the same way that CDs have. I'm not saying that you don't get your money's worth with BD, but trying to convince the general public who never visits sites such as HTF is a tough sell.

I will be glad to be proven wrong and invest in higher quality merchandise, but right now there is not enough support on any end of the spectrum to justify the added expense.

BD reminds me of a lot like CRITERION. You pay more money for what is generally regarded as a superior product, but it's still a boutique item and a niche market.
post #258 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jari K
Okay, sorry about that.
Hey, No problem. Thanks for the insight. I think that there a lot of educating to be done before HDM is running correctly in the majority of households.
post #259 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
I don't understand your choice of words such as "disingenuous"? Prices for BD will come down for hardware and software, but to expect them to be at the levels of SD DVD in the near future is not realistic and is unfair to this new video format.
Robert why would they EVER come down to sd levels? Where would sd go? Even lower? I don't see the point or the enthusiams from the studios in making the mass market price for new releases sub $10(retail w/ a $15 msrp). That's about as low as I can see sd (new releases and re-mastered CEs) going while still leaving room for a lower priced Bd ( figure $20-$30 msrps- catalog/new releases). On second thought...ok. I guess I could see that happening eventually. The only problem is that the presence of a direct comparison will always make the higher priced alternative seem 'unfair, too harsh, not worth it,' etc
Also I don't really see the point for any studio (besides Sony) to bother going to the trouble of creating and enforcing two media stratas. Couldn't they simply draw a line in the sand at any point and declare this is the lowest we want to encourage new/catalog to be sold at? I don't see the excitement from a studio perspective in trading a mass market medium that costs(hypothetically) $1.25 to make and retails for$15 in 2007 with one that costs $1.50 to make and retails for $20 in 2011. Because by that time the $1.25 model would likely be down another $.25 and the rise in margin in the case of the $1.50 model would likely be offset by fewer people buying because of the (relatively) higher price and changing purchasing/social/tech trends.
FWIW I don't think Bd is the last shot we have at a packaged HD media. The last shot at an optical DISC based media probably...but its a long time until dowloads will be ubiquitous. And don't forget, Sonys looking forward to that day just as much as the other studios.
post #260 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Has anyone else noticed that the price of new SD DVDs has been creeping up? At Walmart a new release SD DVD used to be $19.95 or less even for a 2 disc special edition. Now they are regularly $22 or $23.

Doug
post #261 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Echo
By disingenuous I meant giving a false impression of the current state of accepting or rejecting BD as a viable replacement/alternative to SD, the ostensible topic of this thread. Perhaps NAIVE would have been a better term as I didn't mean to imply that anyone was being intentionally misleading, just perhaps not always seeing the forest for the trees.

Personally, I think you make no sense at all. You sound like you're speaking out of both sides of your mouth in an attempt to prophecy the doom of BD. But that's just my opinion of course. Maybe if we get a better sense of what your real agenda is, I'll change my mind on that.

Quote:
My point is that BD price levels will never substantially decrease as one of the primary reasons for developing and marketing the product is to offset losses from SD. To think that BD will ever come down in price to the points we've seen with SD is being very unrealistic in my estimation.

Not everyone here is expecting BD to ever come down to the level of SD DVD. Why should it? Sure, I'd love to pay less for more like everyone else. But I have no problem w/ some happy median so the studios and CE companies can make some $$$ while I get a fair price on this stuff.

We don't really know what that happy median is yet. But it's not unreasonable at all to believe that prices will come down signficantly enough over time. Heck, we're already seeing some of that, eg. I Am Legend is <$19 as new release at Amazon, Disney's been trying out $10 upgrade rebates and coupons on some titles, etc., even Fox has finally slashed some prices on certain catalog titles. And retailers seem to be chipping in some to help push the format to success too, eg. Best Buy's $50 olive branch to HDD owners, Target's B1G1 this week, etc.

Will we ever see lots of older BD titles for $3-5 in weekly sales at Circuit City and Best Buy (like we see now w/ DVD)? Maybe not, but why should we really care if that will ever happen?? What's wrong w/ new releases being $15-20 (and that certainly seems realistic enough IMHO)?

Quote:
What incentive do these companies have for repeating the same mistakes they made with SD? I think it's possible that HD/BD has been a last ditch effort to revive profits in a software industry that is slowly fading out the same way that CDs have.

The incentive? Survival would be one, no? They do depend on the home video bizz a whole lot afterall -- and maybe, just maybe, they're smart enough to learn the other lesson from the music industry too. Making $$$ whenever and wherever they can and making the most of the opportunities is what it's all about, no? It's not like these companies can control everything so that can keep prices high and still have the format/product make them $$$. They need to find a happy median to make the most $$$ out of the opportunity they have. That's partly why Warner wanted the format war to end afterall -- of course, the big payoff helped too.

And really, get real -- like you claim for us to do. These products/formats/businesses run in life cycles. You can't blame the studios and CE companies for making the most of the opp right now. But to insist that prices won't ever come down signficantly seems "naively" cynical to me (just as it's "naively" overoptimistic to expect very fast price slashing at the other extreme).

Quote:
I'm not saying that you don't get your money's worth with BD, but trying to convince the general public who never visits sites such as HTF is a tough sell.

Is it? Personally, I think SUVs and many other luxury cars, etc. are a tough sell too, but they sold like hotcakes anyway. While it's fair enough to suggest enthusiasts shouldn't overestimate the future of BD, it's also bad form, IMHO, to then go about being overly cynical about it as well.

Quote:
I will be glad to be proven wrong and invest in higher quality merchandise, but right now there is not enough support on any end of the spectrum to justify the added expense.

You cannot be proven wrong (or right) until things are allowed to play out. That's really the point some of us are making, no? And yet, here we are still getting all this overly cynical doomsaying going on as though history doesn't tell us that things could work out well enough, assuming the studios don't mess up.

On another note, so which is it? Is BD worth the price to you? Or is not it? In one breath, you intimate that it is worth it, but then in your very next breath, you imply that you won't invest in it. Why not if it's actually worth it??

Quote:
BD reminds me of a lot like CRITERION. You pay more money for what is generally regarded as a superior product, but it's still a boutique item and a niche market.

Well, we'll have to wait and see, no? DVD looked quite similar at the same point in its life cycle too, especially if you account for time value of $. And it's really only been a few weeks since Toshiba pulled the plug on HD DVD so that we're officially left w/ one HDM format.

_Man_
post #262 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

^^The continually weakening US dollar and the increasing price of oil are now being felt well outside the "core" area of gas prices. The inflationary pressure of the current "weak dollar" strategy (the dollar is weakening partly owing to economic uncertainty like the sub-prime issue and fluctuating commodity prices, but it is also weakening (as it has for several years now) as part of deliberate effort to offset government debt by paying in cheaper dollars) is now starting to emerge broadly across the economy--and that includes things as diverse as DVDs, groceries and gardening products.
post #263 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
Has anyone else noticed that the price of new SD DVDs has been creeping up? At Walmart a new release SD DVD used to be $19.95 or less even for a 2 disc special edition. Now they are regularly $22 or $23.

Doug
The MSRP has not change, just the discounting at the store level. The day of loss leaders is long gone.
post #264 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

WOW. Paul I never even thought of that! Spot on! I see it in food, heating, and many other areas. Of course it would affect pretty much anything between shipping, manufacturing, materials as well as the falling dollar.

I think so many of us are waiting for a spike due to the format being singular right now, that probably the most obvious reason slipped past. Between your post and Douglas' re WalMart it all adds up.

DAMN..I wish I would have thought of that!
post #265 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Kittel
Blu-ray breakout by decade / era

1957 - 1969 - 10 / 465 - 2.15% - 8 WB, 1 CTS, 1 MGM
1970 - 1979 - 15 / 465 - 3.22% - 9 WB, 2 Anchor Bay/Starz, 2 MGM, 2 CTS
1980 - 1989 - 28 / 465 - 6.02%
1990 - 1999 - 55 / 465 - 11.83%
2000 - 2008 - 316 / 465 - 67.96%
Unknown - Musical / Special Interest mostly - 41 / 465 - 8.82 %

That's pretty lopsided anyway you slice it.

Foreign films are poorly represented on Blu-Ray as well (regardless of era), and most of them are very recent films.

What would also be interesting is to see the ratings of all the movies on Blu-Ray by using something like RottenTomatoes as a guideline. It's not the gospel, but it can really give an idea of how well regarded (or not) the films are. I would bet that the average rating would be around 50%.
post #266 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong
Personally, I think you make no sense at all. You sound like you're speaking out of both sides of your mouth in an attempt to prophecy the doom of BD. But that's just my opinion of course. Maybe if we get a better sense of what your real agenda is, I'll change my mind on that._Man_

As for "my real agenda", guess what? I don't have one other than to not play Pollyanna on this thread in order to please you or anyone else who has a less than objective opinion on the reality of the situation. My posts speak for themselves so we can agree to disagree and move on.
post #267 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul_Scott
Robert why would they EVER come down to sd levels? Where would sd go? Even lower? I don't see the point or the enthusiams from the studios in making the mass market price for new releases sub $10(retail w/ a $15 msrp). That's about as low as I can see sd (new releases and re-mastered CEs) going while still leaving room for a lower priced Bd ( figure $20-$30 msrps- catalog/new releases). On second thought...ok. I guess I could see that happening eventually. The only problem is that the presence of a direct comparison will always make the higher priced alternative seem 'unfair, too harsh, not worth it,' etc
Also I don't really see the point for any studio (besides Sony) to bother going to the trouble of creating and enforcing two media stratas. Couldn't they simply draw a line in the sand at any point and declare this is the lowest we want to encourage new/catalog to be sold at? I don't see the excitement from a studio perspective in trading a mass market medium that costs(hypothetically) $1.25 to make and retails for$15 in 2007 with one that costs $1.50 to make and retails for $20 in 2011. Because by that time the $1.25 model would likely be down another $.25 and the rise in margin in the case of the $1.50 model would likely be offset by fewer people buying because of the (relatively) higher price and changing purchasing/social/tech trends.

I think *IF* the studios never actually pushed HDM (and got all the enthusiasts excited), it's quite possible they could've milked DVD for much longer and maybe never bother/need HDM.

But the problem is that just as lots of consumers have gotten used to the bargain bin pricing of DVDs, so has the enthusiasts gotten that taste for HDM now. In fact, I really do suspect (and has pointed this out a couple times) that the premature launch of HDM (as a format war) has probably partly hurt DVD sales for them. And it might now have come to the point where there is no return for them. Too many enthusiasts no longer spend much $$$ in DVD nowadays. Even those who haven't actually jumped into HDM don't spend as much as they used to -- you can see that right here in HTF. If even enthusiasts won't spend much on DVD, what else can they do??

And like some of you guys said. It's gonna be hard to sell the masses on BD as a higher quality product that's worth the higher price. But how else can they get back some of the lost margins, if they don't keep pushing HDM now? They've already lost it w/ DVD, and there's even less chance for them to recover it w/ DVD than w/ BD.

Quote:
FWIW I don't think Bd is the last shot we have at a packaged HD media. The last shot at an optical DISC based media probably...but its a long time until dowloads will be ubiquitous. And don't forget, Sonys looking forward to that day just as much as the other studios.

You still thinking flash media?

Personally, the more I think about that one, the more I think I won't want it. At first thought, it sounds cool to go small, but personally, I don't want it so small that they get easily lost around the house, etc. I think 5" optical discs make a happy median in terms of form factor. And honestly, I personally don't see how the studios can sell *me* (and most other enthusiasts) on something "better" than BD for the forseeable future. We'd need to start getting into virtual reality and such before I feel it worthwhile to upgrade from BD to the next big thing. As it is, it sounds like BD might even have enough technological headroom to handle good 3D presentation (at 1080p) w/ the 2 video decoders -- and that's something they haven't even mentioned using yet.

_Man_
post #268 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Echo
As for "my real agenda", guess what? I don't have one other than to not play Pollyanna on this thread in order to please you or anyone else who has a less than objective opinion on the reality of the situation. My posts speak for themselves so we can agree to disagree and move on.

Well, then, sure, let's just agree to disagree w/out all the condescending labeling/namecalling, ok?

_Man_
post #269 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
The MSRP has not change, just the discounting at the store level. The day of loss leaders is long gone.

Thats exactly what I mean. Walmart and other big box retailers must not be seeing the advantage of using DVD as a loss leader anymore.

I'm afraid that the days of release day $13 DVDs maybe a thing of the past for the most part.

Doug
post #270 of 335

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong

You still thinking flash media?

Personally, the more I think about that one, the more I think I won't want it. At first thought, it sounds cool to go small, but personally, I don't want it so small that they get easily lost around the house, etc.

_Man_

I think if flash goes anywhere you will end up with albums that will hold 50 or 100 flash cards, that you could put on the shelf like a book. Put a label on the spine so you know whats in it. I've already started to do this with DVDs just because I don't have the space to display all of those cases.

Doug
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