Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Excellent article. I especially like how he tore down the now-familiar tactic of comparing MSRP to retail prices, which I've seen from several so-called enthusiast sites. And then there's the selective memory vis-a-vis Sony. For example, the Sony statement that they don't expect to see $200 players or Chinese manufacturers. Never mind that Sony made similar statements in 2007 regarding the PS3 and hardware that were later proven wrong. Never mind that the chip solution manufacturers have confirmed interest from the BDA and China. Nope, these "enthusiasts" believe only Sony's words (actually, just the ones that make them look bad), but their actions mean nothing.

In addition, the whole "downloads are coming now!" argument from these sites seems to focus on questionable conclusions from fuzzy sources (Rob Enderle? C'mon, folks...), while ignoring the multiple statements from experts and industry folks that downloads are--at best--in their infancy, and the relatively spectacular failure of some of those services. On top of that, those that complained about excessive DRM and region codes practically fall all over themselves to talk up services like X-Box Live and AppleTV that are not only region-locked, but usually hardware-locked, while having DRM that makes DIVX look open-source by comparison.

I also think it's quite shameful how many of these same sites that pursued the perfection offered by HDM (high bit-rates, lossless sound) magically stopped taking this stance between January 4 and February 19. The only saving grace, they say, is the interactive features. Here's a question:

I'd like to know why they choose the least popular draw for DVD and HDM as somehow the only way to increase sales, yet at the same time believe that download services that offer no extras will kill off Blu-ray. The two are mutually exclusive, people. Pick one stance and stick with it.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Several good points.

"I’m amazed that Blu-ray Disc can’t be left alone to enjoy its victory and we can’t be left alone finally to bring the motion picture experience into our homes with the absolute best high definition deliver vector conceived to date."

Amen.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Sounds like a cry baby worry that his new favorite toy of choice may not be as popular as He thinks and might not survive the next Christmas season.

"Blu-ray Disc won the war. It deserved to win."

"All utter rubbish…"

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

While that aspect of the article may be open to debate, it does raise several good points about other "competing" delivery systems. The download system will resemble his description a LOT more than it will the overly optimistic ones I often encounter elsewhere.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

That reeks of fanboyism. He had me until those last two sentences.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

IMHO, the article perpetuates the negativity that it criticizes.

My take on all of this is to enjoy your collections and the forthcoming titles to the very best of your ability and not worry about other's opinions. It is a media format, not a way of life and is taken far too seriously by far too many individuals.

- Walter.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

The uphill battle is when the mom in suburbia is perfectly fine with the quality of the streamed "HD" movies (via VOD) from their cable company, and utilizes the service as an alternative to rental, and also entertainment value (in terms of how many times will she or her family watch that particular movie). If only 10% of viewers (media buyers) think the extra costs associated with HDM is worth it, that 90% is going to be a tough crowd to overcome at the those price levels. Or if you're a parent and know that you can buy a cheap SD version that will pacify the kids (and be played repeatedly on various installed DVD players within their own family infrastructure), all the benefits of HDM go out the window. That's the uphill battle HDM has to deal with in fighting for marketshare.

It's not simply a matter of looking great that will win over the prospective HDM customer, not when the infrastructure costs are factored in. Some folks just want to be entertained for a few hours, they don't need to have films leave a profound mark upon their soul after watching the films. That's a much bigger pool of people who treat movies as disposable entertainment than the film enthusiast who wants the best possible A/V presentation all the time. Sometimes it's just not pragmatic to set up a home situation to enjoy the benefits of HDM. That's just how it is. This is why there is so much resistance to getting into HDM when DVD is sufficient for many many people's needs. Not trying to rain on HDM's parade, just need to look at a bigger picture of why HDM is not gaining mass acceptance.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

And I fully agree with Walter!


Cees

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

There you go......

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I agree with your comments up to a point and I feel the mass acceptance of HDM will come eventually, but it won't approach the level of SD DVD.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I wouldn't be so sanguine about Blu-ray's future....it's got a long ways to go. My sister asked me last night "So why would I buy Blu-ray? I would have to buy a Blu-ray TV." I suspect she's not alone.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Which is why it is critical that some component in your chain has excellent SD upconversion.

I also fear the triumph of "HD-lite" (witness lossy downloaded music vs hi-res audio). I'm just going to grab onto however many HDM versions of movies I want to own that I consider sufficiently important to have in HDM (that I can afford, of course) and hope for the best.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I think the first big test for BD post-HD-DVD death is gonna be the sales numbers for the first bona fide blockbuster to see release on BD in the aftermath: I Am Legend next Tuesday (3/18). If it can crack 350,000 copies sold in the first week I'll be pretty confident in BDs market growth. (For comparison, 300 sold 250,000 copies on both formats combined last July.)

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I'll tell you what concerns me is the NUMBER of titles released since Blu-ray's inception almost 2 years ago. What....about 450 would you say. Compared to SD DVD titles which number close to 90,000....450 is rather pathetic. Now I don't know how many movie titles are contained in that 90,000 figure but if it's around 20,000 and if HDM averages 10 new movie titles per week (520PY), it would take almost 40 years to release 20,000 titles at that rate. Obviously HDM, as an industry, will need to speed things up considerably to become a viable candidate and wrest the throne away from SD DVD and, in my opinion, they need to start NOW...not next X-mas! If HDM doesn't start developing some strong legs before X-mas, what retailor is his right mind is going to stock HDM players and/or offer significant discounts.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Big Luigi, why would you compare the number of BD titles released in two years against SD titles released over, what, eleven years? That's pathetic! How many SD titles were released in the first two years of that format? And why can't the rate of titles released change? You make it sound like it's carved in stone somewhere!

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

NVM...

_Man_

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Here is what hurts HD-Whatever...lack of a standard! The HD-DVD/BluRay thing ultimately will be a foot note.

Going back to the early 80's...no one wanted to set a the bar at a certain place. There was the MuSE system from Japan that was outstanding, but the US wanted something different. I recall see HiDef images that were SO precise...that you could make out the tip of a hair on the screen. Once even at The Iowa State Fair and the state PBS corp's booth in 1998. Analog HD on Betacam!

Ultimately, we settled for a lot less.

So now we have I....P...SD...ED....HD..

480...720...1080...4:3...16x9..

When the original proposed standard it was one aspect ratio and a MUCH higher resolution. But this was occuring during a period of much de-regulation in the U.S.

I have always been a fan of ONE standard...resolution...aspect ratio.etc.
Even with TV HD we have ATSC and Quam. And don't get me started on HDMI!

So..now that one format has been shaken out of the tree to the ground...perhaps the dust will settle on one HD format for all things video and then this can really take off. The thing that made Color TV, VHS, Laserdisc..and Standard DVD work was, well....a standard!

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

What, like Never Twice Same Colour?

Unified standards are nice, but the only way to make them work in the current economic climate is to let the market sort them out.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

You got me to thinking: How many SD DVD titles were released in the formats first two years from 1997 to 1999 and the best I could do was find this article.
DVD VIDEO GROUP
An exerpt from the article:
The article seems to suggest that at the same time in Blu-ray's history (almost 2 yrs old) SD DVD had 2,200 titles available....soon to be 4,500 by the end of the year.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

But with the general public, DVD only had to compete with VHS (which had been around for two decades so it was lot easier to convince people to upgrade). Blu Ray had to compete with HD DVD and still has to compete with DVD which is barley a decade old (and the average consumer has probably had a DVD player for a little over 5 years so it's a helluva harder to convince them to upgrade again already). With those two massive obstacles, how could Blu Ray have done as well as DVD did?

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I don't see it as a matter of time so much as it is similarity of form and feature. DVD offered a much different experience over tape based formats...of which its better a/v quality was but one element...and probably not the most significant or outstanding difference to the vast majority of people graduating to the format after a decade + of tapes. I would bet things like the more compact form factor along with random access and the 'does't need rewinding' aspect were more significant attributes to significantly more people than merely higher quality a/v. In that light, Bd is merely a better looking DVD, offering pretty much the same ergonomic experience while costing significantly more- in terms of higher sw and an initially much higher hw buy-in cost.And even when saying that HDMs offer a higher quality A/V experience, what is really the truth is (as I see it everytime I watch one) these are merely just really, really, great looking dvds. Any statement of these exhibiting significant, easily percieved higher quality then has to be followed by an asterix and a litany of clauses why this may not be everyones result : i.e. screen sizes + viewing distance, display resolution, condition of individual fim elements or masters, dirctorial intent per visuals etc etc etc.
I'm happy and grateful to own and be able to watch some of my favorite films in such high quality. I am not however optimistic that I will ever be able to amass a collection of favorites anywhere near the scope of the one I enjoy on DVD.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

The Doom and Gloom spin is merely an extension of the format war, usually coming from bitter HD DVD (or anti-Sony) zealots who have nothing to fight for anymore and just can't stop with the rhetoric. Misery loves company and all that.

I just ignore them. Does what they say really matter?

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

At least that "cry baby" chose the format that is STILL alive.. But another valid contribution from you Alfonso to our forum..

Seriously, IMO he makes some good points, even if you don´t agree all of them (rarely people do, since this was more like a "column" than a news article etc). The sheer reality is, that this bitter anti-BD-talk just doesn´t do any good, at least not anymore (if ever).

If you hate/dislike the format, the best thing to do is to boycott BD-releases and the players. That probably won´t "stop" the format, but least it gives certain piece of mind I guess for these people. Ranting on the forums etc doesn´t help. But hey, people do what they do..


True. But it´ll pass. I actually bet, that there was similar talk from (certain) the LD-fans when the SD DVD arrived. It´s of course a hard blow to lose the whole format.

But no-one likes a sore loser. After all, the end of format war was actually a good thing for many.. Like it was good when DVD arrived.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

When we have one HD-format now, I feel that we have a "standard", 1080p.

Sure, some people have 720p ("lower" HD-resolution), 768 and 1080i TV-sets etc, but all the future TV-sets (and also projectors and such) will be in "full" 1080p.

With SD DVD, we had PAL, NTSC, Anamorphic, Non-anamorphic..

So people with that brand new 1080p-set at home, they can now go to the store and pick that Blu-ray-player. It´s the new "standard".

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Wow, Patrick, you summed up my thoughts perfectly.

I am a big HD fan, and I buy Blu-ray when it's available. However, I know I am in the minority (when compared to the general public), and I don't see that changing for a long while. I'm not even sure, as Crawdaddy says (and, who I greatly respect), that mass acceptance will even come. I'm not saying it won't, it's just that I am worried it won't.

Format-war aside, the entire thing smacks of LD: The price will remain high (though not as rediculously high as LD), the availability will be less than stellar (though better than LD), and only the hardcore enthusiasts will truly adopt it (and the rich people ).

At the end of the day, you just can't "treat" customers the way they have been treated. By that I mean you can't convince virtually the entire movie-watching public (and I mean the entire) to switch from pan and scan VHS and over-the-air cropped movies to DVD. Then Convince them to upgrade their old TV to something that could actually be considered a home theatre. Then convince them to upgrade to HD (and for some consumers, this meants multiple upgrades, from 720 to 1080). AND THEN ask them to upgrade all their movies to blu-ray.

It's just too much to throw at the public. Add in the now-defunct format war and its confusion/ambivalence factor, and it's going to be a truly uphill battle.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Blu-ray will die a slow and painful death. And I absolutely love the format and the media. But, I'm wary of the future, and of the purchasing power wielded by the general public. If they simply say "no," to high-def media, then there's not much that can be done.

cheers!

Josh

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

You all seem to forget that Blu-Ray is the new status symbol for the Jones.

When I lived in rural TN, most people in the trailer park were buying large flatscreens. It was sort of a pride thing. "Hey Cleetus, I hear you got yourself one of those new fangeled flat tv's?"

I don't know how they got the money to do it, but they did.

Now, I can easily see the same happening to Blu-Ray. After all, having your friends over to see the new Blu-Ray player is the new status symbol.

I see a great future with Blu-Ray. People who buy new flatscreen tvs are going to want a BR player. And I don't hear a lot of doom and gloom over the future of 1080p Tvs.

If you have spent $1000 on a great stereo system, are you going to want to listen to 8 track tapes on it? The same holds true for the new TVs. If you spend $1000+ on a new tv, are you going to want to watch SD movies, or HD movies on it?

People understand that BD movies might be $5 more than Sd. The principle of paying a little more for something that is better is pretty universal.

My last comment is that those who say that upconverted SD-DVDs look almost as good as Blu-Ray, must not have thier system set up right. It just is not even remotely possible that upconverting a 480 image to 1080 is going to look as good as a movie mastered and shown at 1080. To say otherwise is either really clueless or you have an agenda.

Re: Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

I think you're overestimating the general public's appreciation for the "better picture". I've shown over a dozen people now the difference between HD DVD and SD DVD and THREE were very impressed, two were somewhat impressed and the rest either could not see much point (I had to point out specific things to notice). And my screen is 64 inches diagonal from 8 feet out. On the 37-42 inch TVs that are the vast majority of HDTV purchases, FOR MOST PEOPLE (not HT enthusiasts who obsess over test pattern resolution), the difference is not sufficiently there. The somewhat more popular version of laserdisc scenario seems more likely.